FRA40
Testing Elliott Waves (for reference only)I am quite new to it. Let's see what happens with this first test
Potential longest bull market ever? Buy at 4190-4227 until 6780!This potential sounds crazy to some, but if I see the waves correctly, the "true" crisis wouldn't actually happen this year but maybe in 2-3 years! Are we simply back to 1937?
Something fishy: in terms of Elliott Waves, we should be buying In fact, if we are indeed in the longest bull market in history, then we may be only starting to create wave 5 if what I consider to be wave 3 is in fact ... wave 3. This is puzzling me, a lot.
SHORT: Monthly 50-EMA hit, among other thingsThere are a lots of alignments. I believe it is time to go short deeply for aggressive traders by going against the bullish "wave analysts" advocates. There is clearly an hierarchy here. People are starting to be bullish post "low vol" breakout. Don't go long the climax. Study what happened in previous decades before stock market crashes.
SHORT: Pullback to the weekly 200-EMA among other thingsThe CAC40 pulled back to the breakout level, completed different patterns and reached their targets. I know that some people studying waves believe we could still go up, but I think there should be quite a good sell-off during the next week. I could indeed be wrong, so we shall see. I've noticed that a few rarer or uncommon patterns appeared. Need to study hard on those. Elliott Waves are also more important than one may think.
FRA40 approaching resistance, potential drop! FRA40 is approaching our first resistance at 4920 (horizontal overlap resistance, 161.8% Fibonacci extension) where a strong drop might occur below this level pushing price down to our major support at 4740 (horizontal overlap support, 50% Fibonacci retracement).
Stochastic (55,5,3) is also approaching our first resistance and we might see a corresponding drop in price.
High probability short at 4907Lots of reasons. But the markets could also be short-sold right away. However 4907 is extremely "attractive" so far.
The French Stock Index CAC40 Trend Still UpThe CAC40 looks like a nice setup with the bias still supportive to the upside.
However, the price will need to get above yesterday's session high which is just above the Monthly Pivot high.
Go long if the price breaks above 4852 and place a stop loss at 4673. The profit target is at 5108 for a good risk reward trade.
SHORT: Multiple targets possible, but I expect one at 4429 firstVolume is also decreasing, the rally was probably mostly due to shorts covering and a big technical bounce (retracement + monthly diagonal support). We shall see.
Potentially a big short opportunity in combination with the US We shall see. We reached overextended levels in Europe and 50% retracement in the US.
Going against the current trend: Long 4580 and 4628 European markets are in another cycle compared to the US. A true pullback is getting more and more possible in a few European markets in spite of what's currentky going on in my opinion. It is possible that January becomes bullish before the bigger picture (potential bearish 2019 trend) takes over. Of course, I could be wrong and the markets could well collapse right away. The breakaway gaps also speak volume.
Potential huge cluster of buyers at 4260 (End of "cycle III")By then, there could be some sharp countertrend rallies. More analyses and price discoveries will have to be made as the tape unrolls.
It's now or never: Decisions have to be made. 4683 or 4863?We shall see. The market conditions may change a bit after the FOMC from this coming Wednesday.
Potentially a channel on the CAC40 as wellXmas Rally finally on? Or Shorting the pullback? Let the US decide
Updated target: Short the CAC until 4527I will try to find extra cluster of evidences. However emember that 4630-4688 could perhaps somehow block unless these levels are destroyed with high momentum.
