MSFT 9/26/24💹
👁️ Outlook
30m Context Time Frame: Price has been breaking bullish on the daily and 5hr, however needs some time to break bullish on the 30m time frame and come above the EMAs. Once that happens and shows money coming in then I want price to re-accumulate before going down to my Validation 6m time frame but this is a good stock to look at once that happens with lots of liquidity above.
Bias: Neutral until signs of money coming in above EMAs
Keeping an eye on this. 👁️
Fractal
NVIDIA (NVDA) - Bullish Momentum Fueled by AI RevolutionKey Fundamentals Supporting Bullish Bias:
1. Surging demand for AI chips driving record-breaking revenue growth
2. Launch of next-gen Blackwell architecture expected to outperform current offerings
3. Expanding market share in data center and cloud computing sectors
4. Strong cash flow and $50 billion share buyback program announced
Utilizing Probabilities for Long Positions:
As a trader, I'm leveraging probabilistic analysis to optimize my long entries on NVIDIA.
By combining fundamental analysis with probabilistic technical analysis, I aim to capitalize on NVIDIA's bullish potential while managing risk effectively.
12M:
2W:
1H:
What's your take on using probabilities in trading? Share your thoughts and experiences in the comments below! Let's discuss how this approach can enhance our trading strategies.
Have a perfect trading week! 🚀
EUR/USD Bearish Outlook: Boost Your Trading EdgeKey Fundamentals Impacting EUR/USD:
- Economic Slowdown in Europe: Recent data suggests that the Eurozone is facing economic challenges, including declining manufacturing output and rising unemployment rates, which could weaken the euro against the dollar.
- Strengthening US Dollar: The Federal Reserve's commitment to maintaining higher interest rates to combat inflation is bolstering the US dollar, making it more attractive to investors.
- Geopolitical Tensions: Ongoing geopolitical issues, particularly in Eastern Europe, are adding uncertainty to the euro's stability, further supporting a bearish outlook.
In my trading strategy for EUR/USD, I am focusing on probabilities to guide my decision-making process.
Take a look at these analyses to see the details behind this trade idea.
1W:
Hourly timeframes:
NVDA at $172.00???Disclaimer: Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes and is not a recommendation to buy or sell. I'm sharing a technical perspective based on chart patterns. Before making any investment decisions, it's always good to do your own analysis.
Looking at the daily chart of NASDAQ:NVDA , we can see that the stock is about to break out of a symmetrical triangle . Basically, what's happening here is that the price is "squeezing" between support and resistance until the moment of breakout. And when that happens, we usually see a stronger move in the direction of the breakout.
The target for this breakout is projected by measuring the vertical height of the triangle (the distance between the highest and lowest points of the pattern). We then add this value to the breakout point, which in the case of NVDA , gives us a target around $171.95 . So, if the breakout occurs, that's the range where we can expect the price to go.
However, it's worth noting that symmetrical triangles aren't always the most reliable patterns. Many analysts point out that breakouts don't always result in strong or sustained moves. This is because the triangle can form during both consolidation phases and potential reversals, and it’s not always easy to determine which direction the price will go.
Additionally, authors like Martin Pring in Technical Analysis Explained and Bulkowski highlight an important drawback: when the breakout occurs near the apex of the triangle (the final point of convergence), the resulting move tends to be weaker. This happens because, by that time, the buying or selling pressure may have already dissipated, which weakens the breakout. And this is exactly where NVDA is right now, which could make the breakout less powerful.
What do you think? Do you believe NVDA’s breakout will be strong enough to reach the $171.95 target, or could the proximity to the triangle’s apex weaken the move? Let’s discuss your thoughts in the comments!
25-Sep-24Yesterday's forecast has been accurate so far, but I'm no longer sure that we will reach a higher high today, but may instead drop to a lower low first. The same principle of tightening leverage above and below the range could cause liquidity hunting in both directions to briefly break below and above the range.
CRYPTO MARKET CAP NEARS 200W MA! PRE-CRASH VIBES?Hello, fellow traders! Today, I'd like to share an intriguing analysis of the Crypto Total Market Cap chart, highlighting potential areas of reversal and target zones that could shape the market's direction in the coming months.
By examining different timeframes, I've discovered an interesting scenario unfolding on the weekly chart. The price action in 2024 appears to be forming a downward channel , reminiscent of a pattern we saw back in 2019 . This analysis could provide valuable insights for anticipating future market movements and identifying trading opportunities.
In 2019 , the crypto market experienced a significant advance in Q1 and Q2 before entering a declining channel. Many of us remember what happened next: Bitcoin started moving upwards, pulling the total market cap out of the channel. This movement coincided with the onset of the COVID-19 outbreak in China, leading to a failed rally . It wasn't until February 2020 that we witnessed signs of a market turning point, followed by a substantial crash during the global lockdown.
Fast forward to today, we're noticing similar patterns:
$2.5 Trillion Level: This level mirrors the failed rally point of 2020 and serves as a critical resistance area. A break above could signal bullish momentum.
$1.0 Trillion Level: This zone might act as a potential "surprise" support level in the event of unexpected market downturns.
Additionally, the 200-week moving average is acting as a significant support line. We might see the price spike below this average briefly during high volatility but expect it to recover above shortly after.
What are your thoughts on this setup? Do you think we're heading towards a failed rally similar to 2019, or are we on the brink of setting new all-time highs? Could external factors influence the market as they did back then? Share your insights and let's discuss!
Remember, the crypto market is highly unpredictable. Protecting your capital through proper risk management is crucial. A fundamental strategy is to risk no more than 1% of your capital per trade.
If you found this analysis helpful, please like and follow for more in-depth market insights. Stay tuned for future posts where we'll explore emerging trends and potential trading strategies. Happy trading!
24-Sep-24Price is in the "middle" as we approach the end of the month. This can cause a gradual tightening of leverage at the upper and lower bounds of the range.
This can cause a range squeeze, where alternating upper and lower breakouts gradually expand the range, resulting in a megaphone formation.
Higher timeframe resistancePrice mitigated the internal daily supply zone, which is now acting as the highest timeframe resistance. After the mitigation a retracement occurred in a corrective manner to give us a contraction before the volatile move that cleared the swing low at 2.12600. With the swing low being cleared, we have a shift and price has already triggered the breaker block as indicated. We now was liquidity generated about, looking for the liquidity to be swept and the order block to be respected for a clean bearish entry at 2.13200. The stop is 30 pips which is at 2.13500 and the target is 2.11700 which is a total of 150 pips, the anticipation is a 1:5 trade…
USDJPY 9/23/24💹
👁️ Outlook
30m Context Time Frame: Price have been breaking bullish and surfing above the emas. Price had just came off the 50ema and I would like to see price come back to the 10/20 emas on the 6m time frame for a valid pullback before looking for longs.
Daly Bias: Bullish
Keeping an eye on this. 👁️
TELCOIN GEM 4NAME: TELCOIN (TEL)
CATEGORY: DEFI
MARKET CAPITALIZATION: $157,580,000 USD (LOW CAPITALIZATION)
FULLY DILUTED VALUATION: $174,106,000 USD
TOTAL TOKEN SUPPLY: 100,000 M
CIRCULATING TOKEN SUPPLY: 90,000 M (90.65% of Total Supply)
NETWORK: ETHEREUM AND POLYGON (MATIC)
The Telcoin project was born in 2017, and its legal entity (Telcoin Pte. Ltd) was established in Singapore, although the company is currently headquartered in Japan. It was founded by Paul Neuner.
Its business model was established from the beginning: to partner with telecommunications operators worldwide to ensure a way to send money through mobile devices.
Telcoin has a platform or application called Telcoin (available on both Google Play and the App Store), which acts as a cryptocurrency wallet and provides a simple way to send money.
Telcoin focuses on fast mobile payments that can be easily sent from one user to another, similar to systems like Venmo and Western Union. The blockchain-based solution offers greater speed and lower transaction fees, both crucial features for this use case. The Telcoin platform doesn’t seek to replace such payment providers or compete with them but instead offers a bridge between fiat currencies and blockchain.
Some available exchanges:
KuCoin
Bybit
Bitget
Uniswap on the Ethereum network and Polygon (Matic) network
Quickswap on the Polygon (Matic) network
Upcoming Fundamental Updates:
1.Digital Cash will be launched in the Telcoin app, offering a new fully backed and 1:1 redeemable stablecoin product that will enable next-generation remittances and multi-currency payments.
2.Implementation of the Telcoin Platform V4: The next version of the Telcoin app (V4) will introduce an improved user experience, expanding functionality beyond fiat remittances and DeFi trading, integrating Digital Cash, and broadening access to financial services.
3.Launch of the Telcoin Network
4.Banking Project Update: Telcoin is working to become a regulated bank in the United States and aims to be the first regulated bank issuer of stablecoins, creating connections between digital assets and traditional banking.
Technical Analysis:
Telcoin is currently within a descending wedge since its all-time high reached in May 2021, and it hit a low in December 2023.
Using a fractal from 2020 to May 2021, it seems to be following a similar pattern up to this point.
The RSI indicates levels similar to November 2020, around 43.
Recently, DeFi has not experienced significant movements, so it’s possible that it could enter a trend in the coming months.
I hope this is valuable to you.
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If you didn’t like it, I welcome criticisms and comments.
Using Probability to Guide My Long Positions on NZDUSDThe NZDUSD pair is showing bullish potential due to several key factors.
Recent US inflation data came in softer than expected, which could lead to a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve.
Additionally, the Fed's recent interest rate cut is likely to weaken the US dollar, benefiting the New Zealand dollar.
These factors, combined with NZDUSD's positive momentum over the past week and month, support a bullish outlook for the pair.
To capitalize on this potential, I'm using probability-based analysis to enter long positions. By focusing on high-probability setups, I aim to achieve more consistent results over time.
12M:
2W:
1H:
I’d love to hear your thoughts on the NZDUSD outlook and my trading strategy. Please share your insights or questions in the comments below!
23-Sep-24 UpdateToday's forecast started off well, but my targets are now deeper.
The red magnet represents a liquidity pool created by the recent high, which was made below a big even, also while trading is around the mean.
After the supply zone is filled, I think we will drift down to touch the bottom of the demand zone represented by the green magnet.
Longer term view: