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Fractal

Case for a $2,000,000 BTC in 2025This is extremely optimistic and hyper-bullish, but I wanted to publish this idea for posterity. So far, the current bull market cycle is following the 2015-2017 cycle very very closely. I think it's something like 95% correlated. We've experienced about a 500% increase from bear market lows just like we did in 2015-2016, and then in 2017 we experienced about a 20x from there. Given a Trump presidency, and the pro-crypto stance, and the fact that nations and states are proposing or actually buying BTC for reserves, I think FOMO in 2017 is going to make the price skyrocket. Is another 20x possible? If this cycle continues to correlate the same way it has been, that's exactly what we'll see. Will it happen? Time will tell.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Metal76
1
PriceTime Concept in Fractal AnalysisI continue to receive numerous questions about recommended reading, which has left me no other option than pay my debt to the society by elaborating a little more on the unconventional analysis I frequently perform using Fibonacci Channels. Alongside with theoretical insights I'll provide my key inspirations. The Misbehavior of Markets - Mechanics of Chaos Benoit Mandelbrot, one of the most extraordinary minds of the 20th century, launched a full rebellion against traditional finance in his book, “The Misbehavior of Markets”. In it, he introduced his groundbreaking “10 Heresies”, a direct challenge to the core assumptions and principles underpinning mainstream financial theories. Mandelbrot’s insights expose how conventional models fail to account for the complexity, unpredictability, and turbulence that define real-world markets. 10 Heresies: Markets Are Wild, Not Tame Traditional View: Markets follow predictable, Gaussian-based models with mild fluctuations. Mandelbrot’s View: Markets exhibit “wild randomness” with extreme, sudden changes that far exceed the predictions of Gaussian distributions. Heresy: Risk management and pricing models underestimate the likelihood of extreme events. Financial Variance Is Infinite Traditional View: Variance (a measure of risk) is finite and calculable using standard tools. Mandelbrot’s View: In fractal finance, price movements can have infinite variance due to heavy tails in the distribution of returns. Heresy: Risk cannot be fully measured or predicted using current methods. Markets Have Memory Traditional View: Markets are “memoryless,” meaning past price movements do not influence future ones (random walk hypothesis). Mandelbrot’s View: Markets exhibit long-term memory and dependence, where past trends and events affect current behavior. Heresy: Independence of price changes is a myth. Markets Are Multifractal Traditional View: Price movements are linear and follow simple Brownian motion. Mandelbrot’s View: Markets are multifractal, with different scaling behaviors across timeframes, and cannot be reduced to linear equations. Heresy: Linear models cannot capture market complexity. Time in Markets Is Variable Traditional View: Time in markets flows at a constant rate, making it possible to analyze data at fixed intervals. Mandelbrot’s View: Market time is irregular and subjective, accelerating during high activity (volatility clusters) and slowing during calm periods. Heresy: Time is not constant in financial analysis. Prices Do Not Follow Random Walks Traditional View: Prices move randomly and independently, forming a normal distribution. Mandelbrot’s View: Prices are influenced by patterns, memory, and clustering, resulting in heavy-tailed distributions. Heresy: Random walk theory oversimplifies market dynamics. Markets Are Non-Efficient Traditional View: The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) suggests that all available information is reflected in prices, leaving no room for inefficiencies. Mandelbrot’s View: Markets are often irrational and exhibit inefficiencies driven by emotions, memory, and fractal structures. Heresy: Perfect market efficiency is an illusion. Risk Is Not Symmetrical Traditional View: Risk is modeled symmetrically, assuming equal likelihood of positive and negative deviations. Mandelbrot’s View: Downside risks are more extreme and frequent, leading to asymmetry in market behavior. Heresy: Risk models that assume symmetry are dangerously flawed. Models Need to Embrace Chaos Traditional View: Financial models aim for order and predictability, relying on simplified assumptions. Mandelbrot’s View: Markets are chaotic and unpredictable but exhibit fractal structures that can provide insights. Heresy: Chaos should be embraced, not ignored, in modeling markets. Forecasting Is Fundamentally Limited Traditional View: With enough data and sophisticated models, market behavior can be forecasted with high accuracy. Mandelbrot’s View: Forecasting is inherently uncertain due to the wild randomness and complex nature of markets. Heresy: Precise prediction of market movements is a fool’s errand. Mandelbrot's ideas answered why markets behave the way they do, rather than relying on surface-level analysis. It was definitely more convincing than any traditional TA material that had not much information on cause-effect mechanisms that reveal the deeper structural relationship within price movements. Fortunately, long before becoming acquainted with Mandelbrot’s take on markets, I had already developed my own perspective, thanks to the experiments I conducted right here on TradingView years back. My work perfectly aligned with his vision that acknowledges complexity, extreme events, irregularities and the interconnectedness of historic data. Concept of Relativity I got another inspiration from reading a story about the most pivotal breakthroughs in Albert Einstein’s intellectual journey, leading directly to his formulation of the theory of relativity that later on forever changed the world. His thought experiment revealed the strange and counterintuitive nature of time when viewed from different frames of reference. As Einstein imagined himself racing alongside a beam of light, he realized that from his perspective on the bus, as it was moving away from clocktower, the clock would appear frozen because the light carrying the image of the clock’s moving hands would no longer reach him. This insight, combined with his deep understanding of the constancy of the speed of light, led him to question the absolute nature of time and space. The culmination of this “storm” in his mind was the realization that time is not universal; it is relative to the observer’s motion. This revolutionary idea, published in his 1905 paper on special relativity, fundamentally changed our understanding of the universe, introducing concepts like time dilation and the interdependence of time and space—a unified spacetime . Einstein’s ability to visualize such extraordinary scenarios highlights the power of thought experiments in scientific discovery. It was not only the mathematics but also his imagination that allowed him to redefine our understanding of reality. PriceTime Model via Fibonacci Channels After being able to visualize and somehow digest the complexity behind mathematical model of relativity, I returned to Mandelbrot's book to read more about his stance on time itself. "Price is a function of trading time, which in turn is a function of clock time" - B. Mandelbrot I mean who am I to disagree with a professor... Moreover, it really begins to look like Price and Time are connected similarly to the concept of SpaceTime. Given that the psychology of the masses is inherently sensitive to the golden ratio, I was inspired to create a unified graphical framework that interconnects price dynamics, enabling navigation through the complexities of ever-evolving financial markets. By directly measuring trend angles within significant cycles, I realized that the chart’s complexity could essentially simulate itself. I incorporate psychological levels (via Fibonacci ratios) into my analysis, acknowledging how emotions shape market behavior. By embedding these emotional drivers into fractal structures, I align with Mandelbrot’s understanding of the market as a blend of human psychology and mathematical order. This led to the discovery that Fibonacci ratios influence not only the price axis but also the time axis, unveiling a deeper fractal harmony in market behavior. The way mass (or energy) curves the spacetime fabric to explain the behavior of objects in physics is strikingly similar to how historic price movements (a manifestation of energy) shape the pricetime fabric, revealing the fractal cyclicality inherent in financial markets. My work builds on Mandelbrot’s groundbreaking theories by turning his insights into practical tools. By combining his principles of self-similarity, chaos, and complexity with innovations like Fibonacci-based fractal mapping and trend directionality, I offer a fresh perspective on market behavior. This approach personally helps me to navigate the complexity of financial markets, staying true to Mandelbrot’s legacy while pushing the boundaries of fractal analysis. My motivation for staying on TradingView and analyzing charts transcended being money-driven. I could no longer see markets the same way. I broke free from the rat race and devoted my life to studying charts as a reflection of reality, aiming to uncover the intrinsic rhythm that truly drives price fluctuations. That realization inspired me to prioritize structure-based prediction over blind forecasts driven by subjective narratives, which are often flawed at their core. Sadly, great minds like Benoit Mandelbrot are no longer with us, but it is our responsibility as TradingView users to carry forward their work, treating it as our own mission to honor their legacy. The bottom line is that we should not confine ourselves to the literature of Technical or Fundamental Analysis alone. Instead, we must draw insights from any field, using diverse methods and approaches, to develop a robust probabilistic framework for anticipating future price movements.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by fract
12
ADAUSD What does SeekingPips think? ADA Key PRICE what about TIMAs you know my now SeekingPips often consider TIME more important than PRICE when analysing any TIME and PRICE chart. 🟢 There is no difference here with ADA. ADAUSD is not really something that has really been on our radar but NOW THINGS MIGHT CHANGE. ⭐️TIME & PRICE have met in a crucial space and SeekingPips likes what he sees.⭐️ 🟢 The next 9 hours are very important for the longer term PRICE on this. 🟢 Our key level is shared on this chart. Currently favour the long side but we have no valid trigger to get involved. 🟢 SeekingPips will be watching this one closely this morning. ✅️ Have a GREAT DAY & Like Always Manage Your Risk and the PROFITS will take care of themselves. ⭐️ PLEASE LIKE AND FOLLOW SEEKINGPIPS NOW FOR OUR LATEST ANALYSIS⭐️
CRYPTO:ADAUSDLong
by seekingpips
#TradeWithMky ETH still Sleeping I suggest that to subscire channel to dont lose next analysiss This is not a financial advise its only a Analysis that I created by some difrrents strategies such as #PriceAction #PivotPoints #SmartMoneyConcept and #ClassicPatterns next bullish movement on ETH can surge us to targets in this case u should be aware about passsing at least next resistance and also if price made a DownTrend line price should break it It will happen soon o late but Money Managements is More important that Time Managments # ETH can make at least 4800$ again I wiill edit this post next 6 Weeks again and answer your Comments bellow lets make a comunication in comments ♥
Long
by TradeWithMky
BTC | FRACTAL | Fractal that leads to new ETH ATHBitcoin has been trading stable around 95K, a good indication that the bull run still has some more cards to play for altcoins. Ethereum, Doge and SOL for example have not yet made new all time high's, indicating that the bullish cycle is far from over. There's a saying that leads something like "it's not over until someone sings" - well, in this case, the bullish cycle is not over until Ethereum makes a new ATH. ___________________ BINANCE:BTCUSDT
Long
by CryptoCheck-
1
WILL GOLD'S H4 WEAKNESS LEAD TO MORE PRICE DECLINE?Gold is showing weakness on the H4 timeframe with a heavy price fall below a swing low in yesterday's trading. The metal's price is now rising toward a previously created resistance level. Will there be a price rejection at the resistance level, or will the price zoom past it to create another swing high? N.B! - XAUUSD price might not follow the drawn lines . Actual price movements may likely differ from the forecast. - Let emotions and sentiments work for you - ALWAYS Use Proper Risk Management In Your Trades #gold #xauusd
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by BullBearMkt
AMD Chart-Based Probabilistic TargetsFRACTAL SCALING For a start I'll use the monthly timeframe that captures the broader market cycles and observes the structural trends to understand the scale and distribution of randomness over time. We need a solid foundation before diving into finer timeframes for more detailed analysis. Capturing critical points of a cycle with Fibonacci channels, especially when aligned with the direction of the trend, reveals hidden non-linear dynamics due to the following reasons: Fibonacci ratios reveal fractal structures that align with key reversal points in cycles, reflecting inherent market patterns. Directionality highlights trend asymmetries, showing where price reacts differently in bullish or bearish conditions. Cycles map the rhythm of reversals, exposing non-random patterns in market transitions. Price reacts disproportionately at Fibonacci levels, reflecting non-linear market forces like supply and demand. Hidden symmetry emerges, revealing harmonic relationships within price swings. Integration of time and price uncovers rhythm, where significant moves align with Fibonacci projections. Historical patterns anticipate future reactions, showing the underlying structure of market behavior. Justified Shift This version of the wave metrics aligns the top of the Fibonacci channel with a more recent cycle high, allowing it to better reflect the current price structure. By anchoring the top cycle closer to the present price action, the analysis enhances the accuracy of the underlying frequency dynamics and non-linear relationships. This adjustment also highlights a clearer transition between past and current cycles, capturing how momentum evolves within the channel. The updated metrics likely improve the identification of potential reversal zones or continuation points relative to the new cycle top. Curves Curves are essential in fractal analysis because they reveal the non-linear dynamics and self-similar structures that govern market behavior. Unlike straight lines, curves accurately model the natural rhythm of price movements, capturing how trends accelerate or decelerate over time and oscillate between key levels. By connecting critical price points such as highs, lows, and retracement levels, curves expose the proportional relationships that link fractals, often aligning with natural laws like the Fibonacci sequence. They also define boundaries like "Full Capacity," highlighting where price tends to exhaust momentum and reverse, offering a roadmap for identifying turning points. Furthermore, curves integrate time and price, capturing the dynamic relationship between the two and providing deeper insights into how cycles evolve and repeat. In fractal analysis, they bridge the gap between mathematical models and real market behavior, making them invaluable for interpreting and anticipating price action. Weekly Timeframe AMD’s remarkable growth of 14,018.01% from $1.61 to its all-time high signals an impressive rally, but it also raises the likelihood of growing bearish pressure as the market enters an overheated condition. Such parabolic moves are rarely sustainable, and they often lead to exhaustion, where natural resistance levels, such as the upper bounds of the Fibonacci channel, come into play. These levels, particularly the "Full Capacity" threshold, often signal overbought conditions, triggering profit-taking by institutional investors and traders. As price approaches these critical thresholds, momentum typically begins to slow, with indicators like RSI or volume divergence potentially signaling weakening bullish sentiment. The natural cyclical behavior of markets, combined with extended valuations, creates a favorable environment for bearish reversals. Additionally, macroeconomic risks, declining earnings growth, or broader fundamental concerns can further amplify selling pressure. If price fails to maintain upward momentum or begins forming bearish reversal patterns such as lower highs or rising wedges, it may confirm that the market is entering a corrective phase. Monitoring technical indicators, such as volume trends and momentum divergences, alongside fundamental triggers, will be essential in assessing whether bearish pressure will dominate in the near term. Repetitive Patterns The repetitive pattern circled in yellow represents a critical cyclical phase in AMD's price movement. Each time this pattern completes, it is immediately followed by an "off-the-range" move that resembles the beginning of a super cycle. This phenomenon suggests that the yellow-circled phase acts as a precursor to a significant shift in the market's dynamics, where price transitions into a larger, more powerful trend. That fractal may indicate consolidation or accumulation, where price oscillates within a confined range before breaking out. This breakout initiates a super cycle, marked by a rapid and sustained directional move beyond the previous range. The repetitive nature of this sequence highlights the fractal behavior of the market, where similar patterns recur at different scales, providing opportunities to anticipate major market movements. Fractal I Fractal II
NASDAQ:AMD
by fract
4
USDT Dominance Road Map: Crypto Market Cycles📌 USDT Dominance Prediction: Crypto Market Cycles 🔵 🧭 Roadmap Overview: This chart maps out the cyclical nature of USDT dominance in the crypto market, which reflects investor sentiment and capital flows between stablecoins and risk assets like Bitcoin and altcoins. USDT Dominance represents the percentage of the total crypto market cap held in Tether (USDT). When USDT dominance rises, it typically signals a bear market as investors move to stablecoins for safety. Conversely, when USDT dominance falls, it signals a bull market, as capital flows into riskier assets. 🔎 Historical Cycles & Trends: 1️⃣ 2018-2020 Bull Run (USDT Dominance Falls): During this period, we saw capital flowing out of USDT into BTC and altcoins, fueling a bull market. 2️⃣ 2021-2022 Bear Run (USDT Dominance Rises): Following the crypto crash in 2022, USDT dominance spiked as investors fled risk assets. 3️⃣ 2024-2025 Bull Run (USDT Dominance Expected to Fall): We are now entering a new bull market phase, with the Bitcoin halving in April 2024 acting as a major catalyst. 🧩 Where We Are Now: USDT Dominance is currently at 4.25%. Based on historical patterns: I expect USDT dominance to fall over the next few years, signaling the start of a new bull run in crypto. The next bear market will likely begin after 2028, as USDT dominance starts to rise again. ⚡ How USDT Dominance Impacts the DXY: Capital Flow from Crypto to USD: When USDT dominance rises, it means capital is flowing out of risk assets like Bitcoin into stablecoins, which are backed by USD reserves. This inflow into USD can strengthen the DXY in the short term. De-Dollarization Risks: If crypto-native stablecoins (like DAI or even future decentralized stablecoins) gain adoption, they could bypass the USD entirely, reducing demand for USD-backed stablecoins and weakening the DXY. Cross-Border Payments with Stablecoins: As stablecoins become more widely used for international settlements, they could start to replace traditional SWIFT payments that rely on USD reserves, further reducing the need for the dollar in global trade. 💬 Do you think crypto adoption could challenge the dominance of the USD and impact the DXY? Let me know your thoughts below! 👇 #DXY #USD #Crypto #USDT #Stablecoins #Bitcoin #DeDollarization #Forex #Trading #MacroAnalysis #BTC
CRYPTOCAP:USDT.D
by Ehsanzh
DXY Long-Term Roadmap🧭 Roadmap Overview: The DXY (US Dollar Index) moves in multi-decade cycles of bull and bear runs, reflecting changes in global economic conditions, monetary policies, and investor sentiment. In this chart, I’ve mapped out a long-term roadmap based on historical cycles that indicate where we are now and what to expect in the future. I’ve also included how crypto adoption and stablecoins could potentially impact the DXY in the coming years. 🔎 Historical Cycles & Trends: 1️⃣ 1980-1985 Bull Run: Driven by Federal Reserve rate hikes to combat inflation. The DXY reached a peak around 160, marking a major bull run. 2️⃣ 1985-1995 Bear Run: The Plaza Accord in 1985 led to a devaluation of the dollar. The DXY dropped significantly during this period. 3️⃣ 1995-2002 Bull Run: The dot-com boom and a period of economic expansion saw the DXY rally once again, reaching highs above 120. 4️⃣ 2002-2008 Bear Run: Post-9/11 and the housing bubble crash triggered a major decline in the DXY. 5️⃣ 2008-2022 Bull Run: The global financial crisis in 2008, combined with Fed tightening policies, triggered a long bull run in the DXY, peaking around 114 in 2022. 🧩 Where We Are Now: Currently, the DXY is at a critical inflection point. Based on historical cycles: The next bear run is expected to start soon, driven by a potential Fed pivot to lower interest rates and increasing global de-dollarization efforts. After this bear run, I expect another multi-year bull run, starting around 2030, as the dollar remains the world’s primary reserve currency. ⚡ How Crypto Could Impact the DXY: 🔵 1. Bitcoin as a Hedge Against USD: Bitcoin is often seen as digital gold, offering investors a way to diversify away from the U.S. dollar. If Bitcoin adoption grows globally, it could reduce demand for USD and put downward pressure on the DXY. 🟢 2. Stablecoins Competing with USD: Stablecoins like USDT, USDC, and DAI are pegged to the USD and used globally as digital dollars. However, if crypto-native stablecoins start to replace traditional banking systems, it could challenge the dominance of the USD in global trade. For example: USDT has a higher daily transaction volume than PayPal. Crypto transactions across borders bypass traditional banking systems, reducing the need for USD reserves. 🟡 3. De-Dollarization & Crypto Adoption: Countries like Russia, China, and BRICS nations are pushing to reduce reliance on the USD. If they adopt crypto or blockchain-based settlement systems, it could accelerate the decline of the DXY. Example: Russia is exploring digital currencies to settle international trade. China’s digital yuan (CBDC) aims to reduce reliance on the USD for cross-border payments. ⚡ Key Risk: The more crypto adoption grows, the more demand for traditional USD may decline, which could negatively impact the DXY in the long term. 🎯 Predicted Cycles: 📉 Bear Run: 2025-2030 📈 Bull Run: 2030-2040 💬 What are your thoughts on how crypto adoption could impact the future of the DXY? Let me know your thoughts below! 👇 #DXY #USD #Crypto #USDT #Stablecoins #Bitcoin #DeDollarization #Forex #Trading #MacroAnalysis #BTC
TVC:DXY
by Ehsanzh
Bullish Bias Until Opposing DisplacementClassic SMC concept: Price at Premium area, in order to gather liquidity it has to go to Discount area. Lets break down it into available Week unfolding Scenario: Scenario A: The easiest target for Price is to take PWH (Premium) and then we may face the some sort of displacement it could create Daily/4h -OB then we may trade up to Thursday for having Bearish Bias (short term) by keeping in mind Bullish Bias intact in mind (long term). Scenario B: Price may drop into FVG:BISI(4h) and may turn Bullish and then we may notice FVG creation on Monday and may ride Tuesday retracement to frame Bullish trade up to Thursday/Friday.
TVC:DXY
by Arrsalaan
1
Technical Analysis of Spot Gold (XAU/USD) – January 12, 2025The #gold market continues its upward trend, and in lower timeframes, positive signs of further upward movement are visible. Based on the updated chart data, the following analysis is provided: Overall Market Overview The 4-hour chart of spot gold prices shows successful attempts to maintain levels above key support zones. The addition of the Ichimoku cloud in this analysis provides further insight into the trend direction. Currently, the price is near the critical resistance level of $2,700, with the market showing a strong inclination to break through this level. Trend Analysis Using Ichimoku The Ichimoku cloud indicates a strong bullish trend: The price is above the Ichimoku cloud, signaling a strong uptrend. The Kijun-Sen and Tenkan-Sen lines also have an upward slope, providing support for the price. The gap between the price and the Ichimoku cloud indicates dynamic support around the $2,650 level. Key Support and Resistance Levels Support Levels: The first strong support is around the $2,650 range, further reinforced by the Ichimoku cloud. The second support is observed around $2,620, which is highly significant. Resistance Levels: The first resistance lies in the $2,700 range. Breaking this level could lead to an acceleration in the uptrend. The second resistance is observed at $2,760, a critical level for continuing the bullish movement. Bullish Scenario If the price can break above the $2,700 resistance and stabilize in this range, the next bullish targets will be around $2,760. The positive slope of the Ichimoku lines and the overall uptrend increase the likelihood of this scenario. Bearish Scenario If the price fails to break through the $2,700 resistance, a price correction toward the $2,650 support level may occur. If this support level breaks, the price could drop to $2,620 or even lower levels. Summary and Conclusion Based on the current analysis, the overall gold market trend is still bullish. The $2,700 level plays a crucial role in determining the market’s next direction. Breaking this resistance could push the market toward higher targets, while falling below the $2,650 level may signify the start of a corrective phase. Recommendation: For traders and investors, closely monitoring the key levels and analyzing trading volumes alongside tools like RSI and MACD can help identify entry and exit points effectively.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by MD-Priceaction