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Fractal

BTC Analysis and ProjectionLooking at the bigger picture, after testing the $49,000 level, there are strong indications that Bitcoin might push for a new all-time high. Recently, Bitcoin shook off stop losses from the previous weekly low and gained significant volume in the imbalance zone, signaling a potential bullish move. Key Levels and Scenarios: 1. Bullish Scenario: We are currently watching the bullish level at $65,359. If Bitcoin manages to hold above this level and gain momentum, the next target is $84,000. This scenario aligns with the expectation of an altseason in 2024, where altcoins might see significant growth driven by Bitcoin's upward momentum. 2. Bearish Scenario: However, if Bitcoin fails to sustain the bullish momentum and drops below the recent low, we could see a decline to the $43,000-$34,000 range. This would likely delay the anticipated altseason until the early quarters of 2025. In summary, the current setup suggests a potential for significant gains if Bitcoin holds above key levels. However, a failure to do so might trigger a deeper correction and push back the altseason timeline. For now, the focus remains on how Bitcoin performs around these crucial levels.
by Goldfinch_song
$BABA volatility pricing skew on CALL side before earningsThe high vertical CALL pricing skew on the options chain shows that the CALL options for the September expiration are already much more expensive than the PUT options at the same expected move distance. This suggests that market participants are pricing in an upward move. Let's take a closer look at the probability curve formed by the options chain. I'm very curious to see whether the 8/8 to +1/8 quadrant line will hold the price for BABA, or if it will continue to surge into the Upper Extreme quadrant, heading towards +4/8 until $100. If everything stays the same, something like this could be an interesting lottery ticket for me. I'm thinking about an OTM call butterfly with a short expiration before earnings. I have to admit, I’m not a big fan of risking on this red/black roulette type of play, but if things stay as they are, I might consider combining it with a 40 or 68DTE credit put ratio below and the call butterfly above before earnings. But we'll see how things look on the day before earnings!
NYSE:BABA
by TanukiTrade