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Comparative Analysis of Bitcoin Cycles and XAU"Comparative Analysis of Bitcoin Cycles and XAU 🚀💎 In this analysis, we explore the relationship between the slopes of lines connecting the lows and highs of Bitcoin cycles and gold. A linear correlation emerges, allowing us to estimate the potential peak of Bitcoin’s fourth cycle. Could this relationship hold true in the future? What’s your take on this pattern? 📉 Watch the full video for detailed insights, and share your thoughts in the comments!"
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeEngineering
Arweave 5x in play (+ relative high risk/reward ratio) This side-by-side chart comparison was crafted to illustrate both the growth potential and risk profile differences between Bitcoin (BTC) and Arweave (AR) over the upcoming months, specifically targeting the period from Q1 2024 to Q1 2025. By juxtaposing these two assets, I aimed to highlight how different growth factors and market dynamics play out in each case, despite both assets potentially participating in a broader bull market trend. AR/USDT Chart Analysis KUCOIN:ARUSDT 1. Enhanced Growth Factor for AR: 5x Arweave (AR) exhibits a notable 5x growth factor compared to BTC. This factor reflects AR’s potential to outperform BTC, especially given its relative lower market cap and past explosive moves in bullish cycles. By emphasizing this factor, I intend to highlight AR as a high-risk, high-reward asset, which could see substantial upside if BTC will further grow and consolidate. 2. Decline Factor in Comparison AR also comes with a 2.3x decline factor compared to BTC, underscoring its higher volatility. In periods of short term corrections. . This visual comparison to BTC’s -20% decline serves to remind that while AR may offer amplified gains, it also presents greater downside risks, a trade-off often observed in smaller-cap assets. 3. AR Probable Upper Target by year end 2024-Q1/2025: $49.50 Unlike BTC, AR has a more attainable high target, with $49.50 (a 201.28% increase) labeled as “More Probable by 2024 - Q1/2025.” This optimism is reinforced by AR’s historical ability to rally sharply, especially in bullish conditions. A green checkmark designates this target as a feasible goal within the forecasted timeframe, setting a visual contrast with BTC’s “Less Probable” 270K target. BTC/USDT considerations BYBIT:BTCUSD.P 1. BTC Growth Expectations in before year end (2024): $100K The chart showcases BTC’s historical resilience and expected rally going into Q1 2024. Based on prior movements and momentum analysis, BTC is likely to achieve another 13% growth. This is marked by the first yellow arrow to signal a foundational level for BTC’s next leg up. 2. BTC Less Probable Upper Target for Q1/2025: 270K I’ve marked an ambitious upper target of $270K (a 201.38% increase) as “Less Probable by 2024 - Q1/2025.” This target acknowledges the potential for explosive growth but also emphasizes that reaching this level is less likely within the specified timeframe, given BTC’s recent trend and market constraints. This speculative target is denoted with a red “X” to visually temper expectations around such extreme bullish scenarios. 3. Short-term Decline Risks: As BTC approaches major resistance, there’s a historical correction risk in the near term, estimated at around -20% (from the recent top/ATH). This risk is flagged for potential volatility even as BTC progresses in its bull cycle. This possible retracement emphasizes caution and suitable risk management. Comparative Takeaways Risk and Reward: The comparison visually drives home the point that BTC, as a more established asset, offers relatively stable growth but with a lower ceiling. In contrast, AR presents a far greater potential upside, albeit with significantly higher downside risk, making it a more volatile but rewarding choice. Growth Trajectory and Market Psychology: The BTC chart highlights a cautious optimism for BTC to hit the 100K milestone, while AR’s more ambitious trajectory in the $49.50 range seems within reach due to its previous high volatility. This distinction suggests AR may outperform BTC in a bull cycle, yet demands a more speculative mindset from investors. Visual Indicators for Probability: The use of checkmarks, crosses, and color-coded risk boxes was intentional to provide a quick reference on the probability and risk associated with each target. This approach aims to guide viewers in making informed decisions based on both historical data and projected scenarios. Side note: If BTC reaches higher prices than projected in 2025 it is likely that altcoins and Arweave will increase prices even significantly higher than current targets presented.
Long
by ralphesprit
Bitcoin 3rd waveBitcoin may be starting its 3rd wave of its 2nd cycle. The first one ranging from its inception to the 2017 peak. After 3 corrective A-B-C impulses (2017 top - 2020 bottom) we began this cycle. If this is effectively the 3rd wave, we may see mass adoption of BTC. Objectives in graph are based on previous cycle and provide an approximation of what I believe could happen. Hitting 500k this cycle may seem extreme, but we could achieve it before Aug-25. Trump's victory and the deep reforms he's been talking about could be the catalyst for this great wave. I also expect to see China lifting crypto ban. Chart is weekly view, so don't panic over daily movements. Let's surf together this gigantic wave!
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by wpera
What's next for PEPE?It looks as though there is a fractal forming with PEPE that can take it onto significant higher highs. If wave 5 completes, we'll see the same fractal playing out from the two boxes. The Hurst cycles at the bottom also infer that this upward surge can happen quite quickly given there's not a huge amount of time left before the end of the cycle, validation the 5 waves. No matter how good PEPE looks, I'm not going near it. But, it's up to you as they say. Follow for more.
Long
by cryptechcapital
4
Part 2 of DOGE vs BTCWeekly candles, zoomed all the way to the beginning of the trackable orderbooks. Bitcoin's halvening seems to trigger an immediate "alt season" pump, and DOGE always benefits massively, claiming higher lows as a store of value. Let's be clear- nobody originally wanted to DOGE to ever be considered a store of value- that's why it has infinite emissions (a slowly dripped never ending supply) . In fact, the original idea was to make fun of Bitcoin's purity as a digitally scarce asset! So it's fundamentally strange to me that this inflationary asset continues to gain value against it's disinflationary older cousin. Oh well- hope you enjoy this one. DO NOT BASE YOUR TRADES OFF OF THIS!
Long
by mineyourbiz
Insane fractal says DOGE should do this (or close to it)I looked at the fully zoomed out DOGE/BTC chart & saw pure signal through (value) the noise (US dollars), and it pointed me to a fractal where Doge should currently be in a HYPERBOLIC run up in value against Bitcoin . If Bitcoin continues to have an irrational climb up toward $100k, then this channel may also hold up as DOGE crosses $1 These are the psychological levels of total retail euphoria- everyone who's ever bought these assets prior to just a few weeks ago is in massive profit, but BTC maxis nowhere near as much DOGE holders! If this irrationally exuberant channel holds, then MUST come a reckoning somewhere near/above $100k BTC and $1 DOGE.
CRYPTO:DOGEUSDLong
by mineyourbiz
BTC triangle theory - the big pictureBitcoin seems to be regressing to the mean with the latest bull run. On a logarithmic view, a linear or even exponential upward trend can appear as a gradually flattening or asymptotic curve (the white line that bisects the highs and lows). This trend is identified by smoothing out the price history with a geometric "best fit" and with trend lines (in dark green) that can be drawn retrospectively extending from prior lows to subsequent highs. Extrapolating this pattern onto the recent BTCUSD chart, and with weekly closing prices as a guide, we see that bitcoin is now once again approaching (at around $90K USD) the mid-region of its potential for historic gains. The top half of these gains have been highlighted with a triangle, which in each cycle features a base along the smoothed mean. The final triangle, yet to be filled, is an extrapolation of the past pattern of cycles.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by wisechoice
RAYdium update well here we go again. going to start updating all my charts. iam leaning towards bull bias here. if things start to sink im jumping ship, hopefully early. well ,, lets see. go to defi lama, look under SOL chain (clearly a popular chain with big VCs with huge stashes, ie they are gonna pump it and attempt to dump it on your ass) , now look which protocols/services have the most volume. thats it. thats the thesis. check the % gains compared to its mother chian SOL. better. this and ORCA (much lower rank but doing crazy volume) and JUP which is awesome to use, gets good results, good volume, etc lfg. too bad i can't delete this if im wrong like last time (or was i just early? :P) lfg
CRYPTO:RAYUSDLong
by Crypto-Quantum-Fox
Secrets of the 350-Daily Moving Average(350-DMA)🔮Hi, everyone👋. Today I want to tell you the secrets of 350-Daily Moving Average(350-DMA) in the monthly time frame. By reading this post, you might find an approximate target for Bitcoin before the 2024 Halving. First of all, I suggest you read the following two posts, and maybe our strategy puzzles will be completed before the 2024 Halving.🧩 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 🔮 Secrets of the 350-Daily Moving Average(350-DMA): Between two consecutive Halvings, Bitcoin must go below 350-Daily Moving Average(350-DMA) once. The duration of Bitcoin under the 350-Daily Moving Average(350-DMA) is between 335-396 days (the movement between the two Halvings of 2022 and 2024 is very similar to the movement between the two Halvings of 2012 and 2016). After the monthly candle closes above the 350-Daily Moving Average(350-DMA), Bitcoin has never gone below 350-DMA again before the next Halving. After the monthly candle closes above the 350-Daily Moving Average(350-DMA), Bitcoin starts its growth for a new All Time High(ATH). Due to the similarity of the recent movement of Bitcoin to the movement of Bitcoin between the two Halvings of 2012 and 2016, if we use the Bar Pattern tool, Bitcoin can have a price of about $ 50,000 before the Halving of 2024 . 🎉 In the coming days, I will try to share other secrets with you, and maybe our puzzle will be completed soon. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Bitcoin Analyze ( BTCUSD ), Monthly time frame ⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy, this is just my Idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like'✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by pejman_zwin
6