AUDUSD Back to Its Bullish Trend? AUDUSD has exhibited a strong bullish trend since finding support at 0.635. After hunting a major liquidity zone around 0.69, the price experienced a bearish correction. However, from a higher timeframe perspective, the trend remains bullish. This suggests that reactions to demand zones might be more pronounced compared to supply zones.
Recently, AUDUSD displayed a strong reaction to a key support level on its higher timeframes, even with a countervailing trend in the DXY (US Dollar Index). This reinforces the significance of this support level.
Considering the strength of the higher timeframe trend, opening buy positions within lower timeframe supply zones presents a potentially attractive opportunity, especially for traders seeking high risk reward (R:R) setups (However, this approach differs from my own trading strategy)
Please note that this analysis is not intended as financial advice. Each individual should assume responsibility for their own trades. The purpose of this post is to provide ideas and inspiration, encouraging readers to view the chart from different perspectives. Always conduct your own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.
Fractal
ALGOUSD LONGMonthly Bullish break and close and pullback completed
Weekly Bullish break and close and pullback completed
Daily Bullish break and close and pullback completed
I now forecast Bullish upwards momentum, If this does not take place, Expect complete failure and price to stab through the Lows.
I for one am Certainly Bullish ALGO
GBP/USD: The weight of evidence approachThere are always reasons not to take a trade.
You have to take a 'weight of evidence' approach - and you'll still often be wrong ;)
The idea: Trade GBP/USD short on a daily close below critical support. Looking for 2:1 RR
Reasons for:
Trend is lower (falling fractals / price below the 50 DMA)
Momentum is to the downside (MACD below zero)
If the break holds, then long term trend has turned to a downtrend, adding more force to the short term downtrend.
Reasons against:
Already had a big move lower
Longer term trend has been up - this maybe an exaggerated pullback.
The nice thing about trading, you don't have to stay wrong.
If this breakdown trade fails - it tells us the market has strength.
So then we can wait to trade a break above resistance or a fractal
XAUUSD 10/17/24💡
🔍 5hr time frame impulse: Price has been accumulating/trending bullish above the 10/20emas
🔍 5hr time frame correction: Price has corrected into the 10/20emas.
📈 30m time frame impulse: Price has now showed an impulse above our 10/20 EMAs.
📈 30m time frame correction: Price has corrected into the 10/20emas.
Bias: Bullish
BTC 10/17/24💡
🔍 5hr time frame impulse: Price has been accumulating/trending bullish above the 10/20emas
🔍 5hr time frame correction: Price has corrected into the 10/20emas.
⌛ I will be waiting for the 30m time frame to make a impulse and show a valid impulse above the 10/20emas as well as a correction into the 10/20emas just like the 5hr has showed.
Bias: Bullish
ARB: best zone🔔 ARBUSDT Signals:
🔴 Sell Signal:
Entry: $0.5687
Take Profit 1: $0.5603
Take Profit 2: $0.5529
Take Profit 3: $0.5445
Stop Loss: $0.5768
📉 The price is showing rejection near the $0.5697 resistance level, making it a good spot to short. Look to secure profits gradually at lower levels.
🟢 Buy Signal:
Entry: $0.5443
Take Profit 1: $0.5535
Take Profit 2: $0.5612
Take Profit 3: $0.5687
Stop Loss: $0.5310
📈 If the price holds around the buy zone, you can expect a bounce toward higher targets. Ensure your stop loss is set below $0.5310 to manage risk effectively.
2025 is the new 2017This market is fractal,
just press play.
Data points:
cycle top - bottom 12-13 months
cycle bottom - pre-halving top 17 months (367% increase)
halving re-accumulation into new high 5-6 months
W-RSI oversold into overbought pre-halving, 3 periods of accumulation
post-election blow-off top
XAUUSD 10/16/24💡
🔍 5hr time frame: XAUUSD has been accumulating/trending bullish above the 10/20emas and has corrected into the 10/20emas.
📈 30m: XAUUSD has now showed bullishness on the 30m time frame however we need a correction back into the 10/20emas before scaling down to our 5m time frame.
Bias: Bullish
BTC 10/16/24💡
🔍 5hr time frame: BTC has been accumulating/trending bullish above the 10/20emas and has corrected into the 10/20emas.
📈 30m: BTC has now showed bullishness/impulse above the 10/20emas. Price has showed a valid correction into the 10/20emas.
🎯 5m: Scaling down to the 5m time frame to find entries if we can hold bullish by NY session.
Bias: Bullish
TON/USDT LongI took this trade base on a basic Broadening Descending Wedge pattern. Price looked like it was respecting a 1D order block and looked as if it was ready to reach up towards the top of the wedge.
Once again I've entered too early and waiting for price to pull back further into the OTE zone would have been a better option. The trade is still live and I haven't been stopped out yet, but it was not a good entry. I rushed into the position and once again should have waited for a better entry.
Probabilities Powering BTCUSD TradesUtilizing probabilities based on historical data is a cornerstone of my bullish strategy for BTCUSD. Here’s why I believe this approach is not only effective but essential for positioning long trades successfully.
Understanding the Importance of Probabilities
Probabilities in Trading
Trading is inherently uncertain, and relying on probabilities allows traders to make informed decisions rather than guesses. By analyzing historical price movements and patterns, we can identify trends that have previously led to upward or downward movements. This statistical approach helps mitigate risks associated with emotional decision-making.
Historical Data as a Guide
Historical data provides a wealth of information about how BTCUSD has reacted under various market conditions. By employing a mechanical trading strategy that incorporates these indicators, I can increase my chances of entering profitable trades.
Mechanical Trading Strategy
What is a Mechanical Trading Strategy?
A mechanical trading strategy is a systematic approach that uses predefined rules based on historical data to make trading decisions. This method eliminates emotional bias and ensures consistency in trade execution.
Benefits of a Mechanical Approach
1. Consistency: Adhering to a mechanical strategy means that trades are executed based on data rather than emotions.
2. Backtesting: Historical data allows for backtesting strategies to see how they would have performed in the past, providing confidence in their potential effectiveness.
3. Risk Management: By employing probabilities, I can better manage risk through calculated position sizing and stop-loss orders.
Current Market Context
In the current market environment, BTCUSD shows signs of bullish momentum. The formation of higher lows indicates strength, and historical patterns suggest that we may be at the beginning of another significant upward trend. By leveraging probabilities derived from past performance, I am positioning myself to capitalize on this potential movement.
Conclusion
In summary, utilizing probabilities based on historical data through a mechanical trading strategy equips me with a robust framework for entering long positions in BTCUSD. This approach not only enhances my decision-making process but also aligns with my overall bullish bias. As we navigate the complexities of the crypto market, relying on data-driven strategies will be crucial for achieving success in our trades.
1D:
6H: