Crude Oil WednesdayToday On the Daily I am in confliction with bias meaning that it could be changing soon if we repeat another bullish closing day.
For this I have dropped down onto the 4hr TF and the most recent 4hr -ob is what I will be referencing as to Bullish or Bearish intra day PA.
Scalpers Market atm
If you un sure, sit still.
We did close above the Daily v.i as I have mentioned in my previous posts... so my bias for 80.50 is in jeopardy but as a trader your mind must be dynamic.
As I said sit still or scalp but not in the middle.
Fractal
BTC/Nasdaq Correlation 👀BTC often follows the technology sector of the stock market.
Below you can see the Spearman-rank correlation, which better shows us the moments when two assets start to move in different direction
What now? Now the NASDAQ is starting to slip because the market is overestimating interest rate expectations, after talks that there will be no lowering this year. This, of course, is not acceptable for the technological sector, because the main growth factor is cheap liquidity.
What's next? It seems that we are in for a consolidation or even a small correction on the NASDAQ. Markets expect a positive rate cut or additional liquidity, which is not yet visible.
💡In general, this coincides with what I wrote earlier, that the growth will continue even after several months, near the end of summer.
Oil/Crude oil - TuesdaySo we have achieved one target for price and that was to reach the Daily V.i and so far London has rejected going higher...
Would like to see price head down post 0930est
My target is still 80.50 just waiting for price to align with my thoughts is what is most important before pressing the button.
At minimum PDL would be a bearish target
I don't see why we would want to go higher until proven wrong - Closing above the Daily V.i...
Thanks
BTCUSDT1.Study Gold in 2011 and you will get Idea on how this market may end.
2. I believe we are currently in the bear Trap Basement and will consolidate for 2 months without a significant high.
3. If we follow Gold's fractal from 2011 we should top in 8 months.
4. Following Gold's 2011 fractal I expect another local top at $85-$90k in 3 months.
5.Then re-accumulation for 2 months.
6. And a final blow off top at $125k-$130k
SOL - Solana follows THIS FRACTAL📉Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts📈
Solana has made some great increases, and it's retraced back to support levels.
By looking at the Drop-and-Pop fractal we've been watching, we can conclude tat for the short term, the support zones should hold at $140, with wicks as low as $120.
We can also take a look at moving averages to get an idea of possible wick zones.
We should continue to trade above the 50d moving averages (green) for the price to remain bullish. Losing the 50d will be a bearish indicator:
"Overbought" flash in the weekly usually takes us into a short term correction phase, with prices trading closer to the green trendline:
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Potential Supercycle brewing w/ left moved cycle narrativePlease view my previous idea on the left moved/translated cycle, that would now pave the way for the Supercycle á lá Su Zhu.
Early and aggressive market top that would then send us as low as the prices we have seen during the ETF introduction to the market (potential bottom around 36-42k) / smashing right through the previous ATH as support and then go higher.
I expect the macro situation to worsen, but the damages that have been done during Covid, will heal over time (Inflation, destabilization of the market and tension on borders as well as supply + demand).
Nothing more to add here, just an idea of what I believe the market will do over the course of the next few years.
Seasonal trend in the growth of coffee pricesLet's talk about coffee because coffee lovers understand how important it is in daily life. In the business world, it's widely recognized that no meeting or deal is complete without at least one cup of coffee (or even more). ☕️
Now, let's focus on coffee futures. 📰
Technical analysis presents an interesting perspective for potential growth. The price is approaching a significant support level around $1.4 and is once again starting to rise. ☄️
During this uptrend, it successfully breaches key resistance levels in the vicinity of $1.5, creating a "repositioning" pattern for those considering buying. It seems like coffee season has arrived! ☀️
Right now, we're interested in the unclosed bullish gap at the level of $1.662-$1.6485.
On the daily chart, there's an attempt to test the previous month's highest price, which is crucial for further growth.
The scenario of closing the gap may come into play if the price falls to the order block levels within $1.6-$1.44, from which long-term purchases can be considered until the highest price is reached above the $2.0-$2.6 level.
If a pullback occurs to the 1.2-1.3 zone, it may present an opportunity for buying with the potential for a 2-3 rise. In such a case, there's a high probability of subsequent upward movement after the pullback. ☕️
If you're interested in coffee and commodities futures analysis, feel free to hit the 🔥 button, and we can continue the discussion. ☕️📈
fractal trends on BTCjust learnt about fractals
bullish momentum for BTC is still very strong as shown by 200 EMA
just a slight correction
trying to predict how much longer this correction will be.
difficult to see what happens next as market is shaky.
based on analysis bullish momentum can return as early as next week but as late as end of May
Dow Jones / SPX / etc... possible blow off top ending This is just an idea currently and im not sold on it but it is interesting enough for me to post it and keep an eye on it. For reference my over all current market view has been for last few months that the markets go super parabolic for blow off top and then well bear market for a hot minute or quick but harsh harsh drop. That would be due to if the economy is truly as bad as people make it out to be and its not just them flapping their gums. I see how economy can be bad but I also see some progress being made. I also would think that the assumption of things going back to what they were in the sense of econ is severely misguided because as if any time and any economy has restored to a prior state exactly whether it was good or bad. Anyway I digress, Minimize any of the indicators. I dont typically use the indicators a lot besides bbwp and vrvp. Everything else is just time to time to see if I spot any patterns within them. the fractal was taken for lol 2008 on the daily time frame if I remember correctly and yeah. The direct counter to this fractal would be the other post I made months and months ago on the SPX I believe it was, It was a longer term fractal taken from the 2008-9 bottom of the stock market and run up that I though we were resembling when SPX was forming its bottom in 22-23 but thats not where I started the fractal. I started the fractal from the C-19 drop and I felt that it was suiting and a fair comparison. One of the main reason I thought it was a fair comparison was also in reference to another post I made on here that is looking at the vix and I made the comparison of the vix back in 2008 and in 2020 with the v-shape recovery from C-19.( This will be easier to understand and the other post references if you go through my page and look . I dont have that many post so it would be relatively easy to find. Again im not sold on this yet and just posting it to make sure I remember to keep an eye on it.
SP:SPX
TVC:DJI
TVC:VIX
NASDAQ:QQQ
BTCUSDT1. Bitcoin has given us 3 fractals and examples on how to counter trend sediment.
2. Max Fear in bull Markets are unbelievable entry points.
3. We have many huge bids at $57k-59k that will never be filled IMO.
4. Market will take off as in last 3 examples leaving buyers behind.
5. 2.1B Short Liquidations above us will give us great fuel to restart this run.
Oil In Corrective Wave, Likely Facing Rejections Below 84.80!Any rejection on crudeo oil at current price level will likely cause price to rally above 86.86!
N.B!
- USOIL price might not follow drawn lines . Actual price movement may likely differ from the forecast.
- Let emotions and sentiments work for you
- ALWAYS Use Proper Risk Management In Your Trades
#usoil
#crudeoil
#wti
#brentoil
TOTAL2 update; ends sooner than you thinkTOTAL2 update; ends sooner than you think
now some months have passed we can see reasonably clearly where we are at since the last analysis right at the start of the macro move up.
obviously black swan etc can ruin this or it just does it differently this time. prob not though tbh and if there is a black swan id bet its around those dates. the events tend to fit the chart for some odd reason not the other way around.
leaning towards the early version. im seeing mid april on a lot of other fractals. basically double tops or just slightly higher last highs then splat.
or it just keeps marching up and up and we all get raris and citadels.
im good with either.
lfg
gl
NIO SHORT to $5.70, then $4.0 NIO - Chinese automaker
Fundamental
According to carnewschina.com in Q1 2023 year NIO sold 31,041 EVs - 2.46% only.
"Nio is currently having difficult times in China. Because of the price war, its sales declined, resulting in a noticeable revenue decrease. So, Nio was forced to also join the price war by cutting the cost of every model by 30,000 yuan (4,200 USD). They are obviously in need of keeping the customers’ demand high. The newly launched ET5 Touring can help them for a short period. But station wagons don’t sell hot in China. So, Nio has to push its international deliveries to start as soon as possible."
read NIO to hit the Europe soon. - I can't believe it. European market is not empty. Volkswagen, BMW, Tesla, Toyota, Honda, Hyundai and many others sell a lot right now. Top EU Electric Cars
I watched a lot of presentations, reviews. Nio EV's are really good. But the prices..
Y/Y
Gross Margin % 7.73
Operating Margin % -37.06
Net Margin % -35.01
Income -2463.40M
Sales 7.03B
Cash is melting, debt is growing.
Technical
NIO's chart goes down in the channel.
Just now price is
- near the top level of downtrend channel - Resistance $10.5
- RSI 23 is 63% (bounced from 70%). Always when RSI is on this level the price falls 30% min.
- next strong support level is $5.70
Conclusion
NIO chart is going down in the channel.
Buy for $5.70, then $4.0 and keep for 2-3 years.
BTCUSD: Same Setup is Happening Over and Over Again!When it comes to trading in the crypto industry, focusing on technical and statistical analysis can be key to make decisions before getting your entry.
By relying on the what's being shown to you on charts rather than speculation, you can identify recurring models and setups in the market.
Consistently sticking to your trading strategy can easily help you filter out the noise of Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD), especially in volatile markets like crypto where emotions can run high.
Let's have a quick outlook of the potential next move of BTC in the coming days on 12H timeframe.
12H:
US30Y: A Deep Dive into US30Y Bond Swing-Trade OpportunityThe US30Y bond is a type of loan that the United States government takes from investors. It's called a "30-year bond" because it takes 30 years for the government to pay back the loan in full. When you buy a US30Y bond, you're essentially lending money to the government, and in return, they promise to pay you back the amount you lent, plus interest, over the 30-year period.
People trade US30Y bonds because they can buy and sell them before they mature. This means you can potentially make money by selling the bond for more than you paid for it if its value goes up, or you might sell it for less if its value goes down. The value of the bond can change based on factors like interest rates, inflation, and economic conditions.
Most investors often see US30Y bonds as a safer investment compared to stocks because they're backed by the government.
However, they still carry risks, such as changes in interest rates or inflation levels. So, people who trade US30Y bonds need to carefully consider these factors before making investment decisions.
Now let's get into the detailed analysis of this bond
12M:
6M:
3M:
1M:
1D:
Crude Oil MondayAs in previous post on Sunday -
So we have dipped our toes into the weekly fvg
May leave a low in place here to raid it again later, want to see weekley CE respected.. as its London and Monday this could be the judas swing... wait for more info and cme or 830 open.
Any Longs from me will need market to show displacement on 15min or 1hr tf... no rush
VEDL Perfect breakout set up?VEDL has crossed the resistance with a strong candle and this move is supported by volume as well. It might move to target marked in some time.
Stochastic has changed its direction, and started moving up. It can also be an added confirmation of a positional buying setup/ investment.
Simple charts, so that, everyone can understand. I'll be posting more such ideas like this. Until that, like share and follow :)
Thanks,
Wayfarer.
keep learning and keep earning.
Disclaimer: Please note that we are not registered advisors and the views expressed here are solely personal opinions. We strongly recommend consulting with your financial advisors before making any investment decisions.
Gold Remains A BUY Despite The Selling PressureWith many sellers showing up in the last closing hours last week, gold remains a buy.
N.B!
- XAUUSD price might not follow the drawn lines . Actual price movements may likely differ from the forecast.
- Let emotions and sentiments work for you
- ALWAYS Use Proper Risk Management In Your Trades
#gold
#xauusd