Fractal
2-Oct-24 UpdatePrice has bounced on $60,000, so I think we will oscillate here to form a bear flag, before dropping lower to reach the next demand zone.
The bounce from $54,000 should provide a great trade opportunity as it returns to the big even at $60,000, before dropping back down for a retest of $54,000.
XAUUSD💹
Outlook: XAUUSD looks like it is doing exactly what we want broke bullish during Tokyo and London session. For NY I want to see a re-accumulation and it looks' like we are doing it now on the 30m time frame. I want to see price start creating demand on my 6m time frame before scaling down to my 1m entry time frame.
NY session bias: Bullish
2-Oct-24Now that price has returned to the previous range, I expect the limits to be broken down, then up, without breaching the support/resistance zone on the other side.
We might then be ready to drop to find support at the next demand zone, providing a bounce to return to the current level, which appears to be an equilibrium point for now.
Accumulation, Manipulation and DistributionPrior to overcoming the 4-hour rejection block, price formed a consolidation phase, indicative of accumulation. This was followed by a volatile bullish move that successfully mitigated the rejection block, entering a manipulation phase.
Subsequent price action led to a displacement, clearing the swing. Currently, we observe a bearish sentiment, anticipating a corrective hike to fill the imbalance and respect the fair value gap at 1.51200. The fair value gap shall be our entry with the demand zone at 1.50200 as the target from this expected distribution phase delivery…
XAUUSD💹
Outlook: XAUUSD needs to show some conviction on the 30m while inside this 5hr IC for me to be interested in longs because at the moment the 30m is bearish so staying away until then.
NY session bias: Bullish for NY tomorrow as long as we stay inside this 5hr IC range. And show some conviction on the 30m.
1-Oct-24 UpdateThis is a minor update to my previous forecast. I'm modeling the arrow path from the blue fractal, which shows a period of high volatility followed by a short squeeze. The fractal is placed with the x axis aligned with the recent drop, and the y axis aligned with a break of 67K after the period of volatility.
This indicates that we will return to the mean first, then break the latest low to access the liquidity pool there. After a bounce and correction we should find support and continue to break 67K
NAS100💹
Outlook: NAS100 has been breaking bullish and accumulating creating a Impulse and correction on the 5hr chart and is inside this 5hr range. Price is currently in a discount range and has shown a impulse/ money coming in on the 30m chart. For NY session I want to see price inside the 5hr range I have here and I want to see price show an impulse on the 30m time frame before going down to my 6m time frame.
NY session bias: Bullish price is currently showing some money coming in for Tokyo but we will see how price looks like after London session. Good luck tomorrow! we have news at 1:55am EST so I will be trying to get positioned before news into continuation for higher prices.
TSLA💹
Outlook: TSLA has been breaking bullish and accumulating nicely. Price made a bigger re-accumulation the last 2-3 hours but we are still inside this 5hr bullish impulse range. I will be looking for longs on TSLA if they present themselves/
NY session bias: Bullish/ re-accumulating looking for longs NY stock exchange open.
30-Sep-24 UpdateI think we're likely to see some liquidity hunting as the market remains undecided approaching the end of the month.
We could see multiple breaks above and below the range to access the liquidity pools that have accumulated there.
Once we're a few days into the new month we should find support around the middle of the range before continuing the uptrend.
29-Sep-25Price is lingering at low volume after an impulse wave. That suggests that the market is undecided again, so we could see another megaphone. I think we'll get one more failed breakout attempt before price drops to retest the 50% of the impulse (blue fib).
I'm then expecting for a spike to catch out any shorts before dropping down to break the previous LL.
XAUUSD💹
Outlook: Gold has been accumulating now re-accumulating inside our 5hr impulse range I-C. Is starting to show some money coming in but we need a valid correction before dropping down to our lower time frames 6m to start looking for the next I-C. Will definitely take a look at gold once price show this next week.
Bias: Bullish/re-accumulating needs time
OP & ALTs Resistance While I remain very bullish on crypto and alts I think this recent pump is not quite the true breakout.
I like the OKX:OPUSDT chart because it's price action has been a nice cheat sheet/ indicator for where the crypto market is. Significant peaks are usually the tops and clear support zones are usually the bottom in the market.
OP here seems to be replaying the same structure as last year. If it breaks out of this zone then perhaps alts are on the verge of the ultimate breakout. But in the past the major breakouts usually happen after a slow and gradual drift higher.
The timing can be off but just using last year as a guideline.
These sharp moves higher are usually shorts getting liquidated and longs jumping in from short term perp leverage traders which can be unsustainable for the true breakout back to ATH or new highs. There are exceptions like BINANCE:SUIUSDT
where it shorts get liquidated, longs pile in, and lots of late spot fomo buying occurs.
What invalidates this is if BTC creates a god candle breaking the 70k level from here and doesn't slow.
It makes a little more sense to me if we see alt season towards very EOY or towards the very beginning of 2025 if crypto as a whole shows strength here in Q4.