Dow Jones Industrial - DJI - is creating a ending diagonalEnding Diagonal Overview
An Ending Diagonal is a pattern that signifies the exhaustion of a larger movement. It occurs at the final stages of a trend, either at the end of a five-wave impulse or at the end of an A-B-C corrective structure. Typically, ending diagonals take longer to unfold compared to standard impulses, indicating a slowdown and an imminent trend reversal.
Key Rules for Ending Diagonals
• Where they appear: Ending diagonals can occur in either Wave 5 of an impulse or Wave C of a corrective structure.
• Wave count: An ending diagonal subdivides into five waves.
• Wave structure: Each of the five waves in an ending diagonal consists of three smaller waves.
• Wave overlap: In an ending diagonal, Wave 1 and Wave 4 overlap, unlike a standard impulse.
Guidelines for Identifying an Ending Diagonal
• Wave size: Wave 1 is typically the largest among Waves 1, 3, and 5.
• Contracting vs. Expanding Diagonals:
• In a contracting diagonal, Wave 5 often terminates slightly beyond the trendline connecting Wave 1 and Wave 3.
• In an expanding diagonal, Wave 5 typically ends before the trendline connecting Wave 1 and Wave 3.
• Wave 3 extension: If Wave 5 is an ending diagonal, Wave 3 is most likely to be extended.
• Implication of extensions: Wave 5 extensions, truncated fifths, and ending diagonals all suggest a significant reversal is approaching.
• Sub-wave structure: Unlike typical impulses, the sub-waves Wave 2 and Wave 4 do not alternate in terms of structure. Both corrections are usually simple ZigZag patterns.
• Throw-over phenomenon: Often, prices may briefly shoot beyond the trendline connecting Wave 1 and Wave 3 in a phenomenon known as a throw-over, indicating extreme exhaustion. This is followed by a sharp reversal.
• Trading opportunity: A strong buying opportunity usually emerges when prices break above the diagonal trendline connecting Wave 2 and Wave 4.
Internal Wave Structure
The internal structure of an ending diagonal follows a 3-3-3-3-3 pattern. Each of the five waves in the diagonal subdivides into three smaller waves, typically following an A-B-C ZigZag pattern. This differs from a typical impulse, which subdivides into a 5-wave structure.
Conclusion
Ending diagonals mark the completion of major trends and serve as powerful reversal signals. Recognizing their internal wave structure and the key characteristics such as the overlap of Waves 1 and 4, the throw-over, and their 3-wave subdivisions can help traders identify impending reversals and take advantage of new trend opportunities.
Fractal
SPX500USD: Capitalizing on Probabilities for a Bullish SurgeSPX500USD: Bullish Momentum Supported by Key Fundamentals
The S&P 500 (SPX500USD) shows strong bullish potential, backed by several key fundamentals
1. Resilient economic growth: Recent GDP data indicates continued expansion despite earlier recession fears.
2. Easing inflation pressures: Core inflation metrics are trending downward, potentially allowing for a more accommodative Fed policy.
3. Strong corporate earnings: Many companies are beating earnings expectations, demonstrating business resilience.
4. Technological advancements: Ongoing AI integration across sectors is driving productivity gains and investor optimism.
Probability-Based Approach for Long Positions
I'm utilizing probabilities to enter long positions. My charts will showcase key probability zones and potential entry points.
Let's dive into the top-down analysis.
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I’d love to hear your thoughts on the SPX500USD outlook!
Rate Cut Incoming. Buckle Up"What the Yield Curve and Fed Moves Mean for Your Next Trade."
Historically, when the Federal Reserve lowers the federal funds rate while the yield spread is negative (also known as an inverted yield curve), it has often been an indicator of an impending market correction or recession.
Let’s break this down:
Historically, the bond market is a key indicator. Typically, long-term bonds offer higher yields than short-term bonds; This a healthy sign. When that flips and short-term yields surpass long-term ones, we get what’s called an inverted yield curve. This inversion signals that investors are getting nervous about the near-term economy. When the Fed then steps in to lower rates, they’re trying to stimulate growth, but it often comes too late.
Looking back at past events:
The dot-com crash of 2000: The yield curve inverted, the Fed cut rates, and a 35% market correction followed.
The 2008 financial crisis: Again, the yield curve inverted, rates were cut, and the market saw a major downturn exceeding 50%.
Going back even further, the same pattern held in the 1970s and 1980s.
The big questions are:
Why does this combination signal trouble?
Will this pattern repeat itself again?
While history tends to repeat itself, the data shows that when the Fed cuts rates with a negative yield spread, market corrections often follow. The inverted curve suggests tighter credit conditions, reduced lending, and lack of confidence, all piling on top of one another creating a recipe for disaster.
Stepping back even further, we see that investor sentiment and the bond market tend to lead the way. Credit tightens, and companies cut back on spending. Another a perfect recipe for an economic slowdown and market drop.
It's a familiar cycle. So lets buckle up.
Bullish AU200: Key Fundamentals & Probability StrategyThe AU200 (ASX 200) index is showing bullish potential due to several key fundamentals. Australia's economy continues to demonstrate resilience, with a strong labor market and low unemployment rate of 3.6% supporting consumer spending. Additionally, the country's resource-rich economy benefits from robust global commodity prices, particularly in key exports like iron ore and coal. The Reserve Bank of Australia's supportive monetary policy, despite recent tightening to combat inflation, further underpins the positive outlook for the AU200.
I'm incorporating probability top-down analysis into my trading strategy for the AU200 to make more informed decisions and improve my chances of success. By using probability tools on my charts, I can assess the probability of price movements reaching specific levels, helping me identify high-probability trade setups.
Now let's get into the top-down process:
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What are your thoughts on the AU200? Share your ideas and insights below!
Why Now is the Time to Go Long on USDJPY: A Trader’s PerspectiveCurrent Fundamentals:
-Diverging monetary policies: The Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance, while the Bank of Japan continues its ultra-loose policy.
-Economic growth disparity: The US economy shows resilience, outpacing Japan's growth rate.
-Interest rate differentials: Higher US yields attract capital flows, strengthening the dollar against the yen.
I'm employing probability-based analysis to enter long positions in USD/JPY.
Let's discuss what's going on with USDJPY!
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17-Sep-24I think the market is "naturally" bullish, but whales are pushing price down.
The circled price action looks like a short squeeze, and now whales have entered short and are ready to push price down to break $56K.
My levels are places assuming strong bounces from liquidity levels.
Following the break of 56K I'm expecting a breakout of the longer term down trend.
NAS100 9/17/24💹 Indices:
👁️ Outlook
30m Context Time Frame: we are breaking bullish re-accumulating, price just came off the 10ema and is pushing into higher prices. I expect NY to have some sort of pullback into the EMAs and take out some lows then we can see a continuation.
Daly Bias: Bullish
Keeping an eye on this. 👁️