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Fractal

Crude Oil ForecastSo I was looking at Crude on the weekend and I couldn't determine a clear direction for Monday. Now Monday Is almost over and we Have disrespected the Mean threshold of the Daily +OB I do expect price to be bearish and heading down towards the Daily FVG. An Good indicator on the Daily we have respected the WEEKLY ifvg CE. These things are very important to watch. Before 0930est I will post intra day targets that I suspect will be Draw On Liquidity. Bring on Tuesday!
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by IamThattrader
The ultimate guide on Elliott waves in crypto tradingMost of you have probably heard about Elliott waves and we are sure that you don’t use it in cryptocurrency trading strategy because it’s very complicated and subjective approach. Crypto trading for beginners is very challenging and stressful even without Elliott waves. To be honest when we first time tried to implement it to my crypto trading strategies it was a complete disappointment. We were sure that it does not suit for both trading bot and manual trades. Elliott waves were thrown into a garbage bin for almost two years and we developed our crypto trading algorithm using only linear programming approaches. While we have been trying to invent the best automated trading bot using only indicators and support and resistance levels, best crypto traders have been successfully using Elliott waves in their analysis. Finally we make a decision to have a deep dive in this popular crypto trading tool and studied in details all available literature. As a result we found that Elliott waves will ruin your trading if you use it without special indicators for confirmation. Now we have 2 years of experience in trading with waves and almost one year ago we implemented them into our algorithmic trading bot. Today we prepared the best ultimate guide ever on Elliott waves using best practices and our unique experience how to use them in developing your own profitable crypto trading strategies. Let’s go! Why it’s vital to use Elliott waves? Before answer this question, let me ask another one! Why is important to use map to reach the final destination? I think here is the obvious answer! Talking about Elliott waves it’s almost the same reason. This is the only one approach which gives you a map for a price chart. I think you agree that technical indicators or support and resistance levels will not give you the answer which direction the price will choose. When you have, for example Stochastic Oscillator crossover or RSI oversold area hit you just open long because this is the most common strategy. You buy asset like a blind kitten. We are not criticize this approach, because using proper risk and money management you will earn with almost every strategy, but understanding the Elliott waves concept will dramatically increase your profit even if you combine them with your ordinary strategy. Why it’s happening? The answer is easy, because Elliott waves in the underlying structure of the market. You will be aware when you shall use your signals and when it’s better to skip trade. Now let’s dive into the Elliott waves to understand how to find them on the price chart. In the first part we will give you all needed theory and after that we will show in the real charts how it works. Elliott waves In general, Elliott waves concept is pretty easy. All markets are globally moving up with the five waves formations and then show the pullback with at the reactive waves. On the Bitcoin price chart above you can see the most common picture for Elliott waves. We had the bull run which consists of five waves and then was the bear market represented with the ABC correction. Waves can be divided into two groups: impulsive and reactive. On the bullish phase waves 1, 3 and 5 are impulsive, 2 and 4 reactive. Impulsive waves consists also with five sub waves, while reactive have usually three waves (exception the triangle correction, will be covered later). On the bearish phase we have the opposite situation: waves A and C are impulsive, while wave B is reactive. Now let’s discuss each wave in details. What will stop every wave in 90% of cases? Before we will observe the wave it’s very important to understand what are the early signs that current wave is about to be finished. This is really crucial concept because without it almost impossible to use Elliott waves for profitable trading. We need four tools to make sure that our counting is correct. In this article we will not spend to much time for these indicators, we just show you in practice how to use them. These tools are: Awesome Oscillator, Market Facilitation Index (MFI), Fibonacci retracement and extension and Fractals. These four indicators produce five wave’s end conditions. Divergence with Awesome Oscillator. If you found five sub waves inside any wave and you can see that price set the higher high (or lower low for bearish case), while AO set lower high (or higher low) it’s divergence between wave 3 and 5. This is the most powerful signal that trend is over. Fractal at the top or bottom. When you see the divergence it’s just the first sign of trend weakness, we need confirmation with the fractal forming at the top or bottom. You can easily find this indicator in TradingView, it will show you all fractals. MFI squat bar. We will cover MFI in one of the next educational articles, now you just need to know that it has squat state - the last battle between bulls and bears. One of the three top bars will be the squat in 80% of waves end. You can also find this indicator in TradingView. AO momentum change. Another one confirmation that trend is over is when AO histogram changes color. It’s better to wait three consecutive columns of the other color or when AO will cross back the signal line, 5 period MA of the AO. Target area. Using Fibonacci extension and retracement we can find the area where the reversal is the most likely. We will show you this targets when talking about waves. Now you know the five basic rules and we are ready to discuss every wave using this concept. Wave 1 When the previous trend is over the impulsive wave 1 begins. We can define the wave 1 start only establishing the previous wave end. It could be wave 5, C or E. It does not matter. You just need to apply our five rules: divergence, momentum change, target area, squat bar and fractal. On the chart you can see how in theory wave 1 can be looks like. Wave 1 always consists of five waves. That’s why we can wait for the same five rules to complete between wave 3 and 5 inside the wave 1. When you anticipate the wave 1 finish you have two options: close trade and re-enter at the wave 2 bottom or hold for the entire cycle. Wave 2 When wave 1 ends, you will see pull back in wave 2. It’s important to catch wave 2 bottom because wave 3 will bring you a lot of profit. Wave 2 can be classical ABC zigzag, flat or irregular correction. 70% probability it will be ended inside 0.38 and 0.62 Fibonacci retracement range of wave 1, in rare cases it can ends higher or lower. That’s why it’s better t count waves inside wave 2 and do not miss when all five trend killing conditions are met in wave C inside 2. Wave 3 The most impulsive wave in the entire cycle is obligatory for trading. Here you can have the less risky and the most easy trading. Wave 3 has the great fundamental factors as a price drivers. For example, Bitcoin spot ETF triggered a huge pump recently. Let’s imagine you correctly entered at the wave 2 end. Now we have to define wave 3 targets. The target area using fibonacci extension can be found between 1 and 1.61. This is the most likely case. In crypto it’s very often when waves 3 are extended. To have the most precise target it’s highly recommended to count waves inside wave 3. Found five waves? Check our favorite trend killing rules to exit a trade at the top. We know it sounds fantastic, but we managed to buy the exact bottom and sell at the top many times, but to be honest, we have never caught the top of the extended wave 3. Need more experience for that. Wave 4 Wave 4 can be the most complicated because it has a lot of different variants: zigzag, flat, irregular or even triangle. But at the same time in wave 4 we can have the easiest setup. When you predicted wave 3 top, it’s time to setup the target for the wave 4. The most reliable one is between 0.38 and 0.5. This wave is not so rapid as wave 2 and takes much more time (up to 70% of all cycle). The very important tip here is to look at the price where wave 4 inside wave 3 has been ended. If this level coincides with the 0.38-0.5 zone it can give you much more confidence. We have never made a mistake using this technique. As usual you have to look for the five trend killing rules in wave C inside wave 4 as well. Another one thing we want to point out. You know the axiom, that wave 4 has not overlap wave 1 top. This rule can be slightly violated and we will show you the case. Don’t pay attention that much to this rule. Wave 5 Finally we are in wave 5. This is really vital to define it’s top because bear market will follow this wave and can destroy your deposits. The target area for the wave 5 is defined as the distance between wave 1 bottom and wave 3 top, measured from wave 4 bottom. Area between 0.61 of this distance and 1 Fibonacci level is our target. There you have to find trend killing rules as usual but this time for all cycle, not subwaves. Corrections The most dangerous place for trading is the correction. From our experience only wave C in zigzag is tradable. You would better to skip corrections and try to catch it’s end. We have four types of corrections, but the most important knowledges is that wave C and E are always consists of five waves. It means you can use the rules how to catch wave 5 end inside these waves. Zigzag ABC. If wave A consists of 5 waves the most like we will see zigzag. Wait when wave B reach 0.5-0.61 Fibonacci of wave A and be ready to trade in wave C. Flat. Wave A has 5 waves inside. Waves A, B and C are almost equal to each other. Irregular. Wave B top is higher that the previous impulsive wave. Wave A consists of 3 waves. Triangle. Consists of A, B, C, D and E waves. Wave E consists of five waves. Usually occurs inside waves 4 and B of higher degree. Now you have a theoretical description. It’s time to trade!
Education
by Skyrexio
19
SOLANA - $600 on the Cards?👀📉Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts📈 Solana has made some great increases, and it's retraced back to support levels. I've been bullish on Solana since the beginning of 2024, when SOL was still sub $100. Take a look here at other altcoins that we've been watching: By looking at the Drop-and-Pop fractal we've been watching, we can conclude that for the short term, the support zones should hold at $140, with wicks as low as $120. When incorporating this into Elliot Wave Theory, our next impulse up (wave 4-5) should take us to roughly $290. But it doesn't end there. When we zoom out, and view the chart from a macro perspective, we see a different structure of Elliot waves... We're possibly still in wave 0-1! And if we use the same Elliot wave ratios to calculate wave 5, (% of wave 1 OR 161.8 x wave 1 length) then wave 4-5 takes us even beyond $600. It's important to note though, that this is a multi-month and potentially multi-year target. Although SOL has previously increased 500% in a few weeks, the markets are more mature than they were in early days with many more adopters and institutional investors joining the game. If you found this content helpful, please remember to hit like and subscribe and never miss a moment in the markets. _______________________ 📢Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates📢 👍Hit like & Follow 👍 CryptoCheck COINBASE:SOLUSDT BINANCE:SOLUSDT
Long
by CryptoCheck-
1
$BTC: Fib Interference PatternAdded 2 other fib ratios for extending awareness about the presence of extra golden proportions. Those are 0.146 and 0.887 2021 double tops define an important angle which is relevant to the chart in terms of its distinctive angle of the shift towards the side. Given angle we could define the width of fibonacci channel by applying the Nov 2022 bottom: Tops 2017 & 2021 applied to Coving bottom: Establishing fabric of PriceTime based on its historic incline. To increase further the awareness on waves of probability limits, the process can be repeated. Tops 2013 & 2017 applied to 2011 Low High angle fib channel related to timing: 2011 & 2013 Tops applied to August 2015 Low
INDEX:BTCUSD
by fract
4
XAU/USD 26 April 2024 Intraday Analysis H4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has now printed a bullish iBOS aligned with swing structure. Following the bullish iBOS we expect price to pullback. Intraday expectation would be for price pullback to either 50% EQ before targeting weak internal high. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has printed a bullish iBOS. Following bullish iBOS price is expected to pullback. Indication of pullback initiation would be a bearish CHoCH which is denoted with blue dotted line. Intraday expectation: Price to indicate pullback initiation by printing bearish CHoCH. Price to pullback to M15 POI before targeting weak internal high. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
Volume Profile Structural AnalysisGuide to Structural Market Analysis Using Volume Profile Introduction: Here's a systematic approach to identifying market structure through Volume Profile Structural Analysis. By charting key levels on a higher time frame and refining entry/exit points on a lower time frame, traders can discern potential market movements and adapt their strategies accordingly. Step 1: Chart Markup on a Daily Time Frame Profile Configuration : Set up your Volume Profile in TradingView (Visible Range Profile) to encompass the full range of visible price action on the daily chart. This will capture the broad market structure, encompassing long-term HVNs and LVNs. Identify Node Delineations : Mark horizontal lines at the edges of HVNs (Volume nodes) with a clear transition to lower volume, signifying support and resistance levels. Mark Deep Crevices: Place horizontal lines at deep crevices within LVNs (Volume Wells), indicating areas where prices may trend rapidly due to low volume, where the price will likely pause/pass/reject. Color Coding : Assign distinct colors to the lines marking major nodes for easy recognition when zooming into smaller time frames. Step 2: Zooming into Intraday Time Frames (1-15 Minutes) Visual Reference : Use the lines drawn from the daily chart as a reference point in the intraday time frame to assess short-term price action. Recognize Patterns : Observe how the price interacts with these pre-marked levels. Note areas where price consolidates (within HVNs) and where it trends (through LVNs). Price Action Scenarios : Create potential movement scenarios based on the current trend, support, resistance lines, and expected behavior at HVN and LVN levels. Step 3: Trade Planning and Execution Consolidation Plays : In HVN areas, plan for non-directional or mean-reversion trades that capitalize on price stability and low volatility. Breakout Trades : When the price approaches the edge of an HVN, prepare for potential breakout trades, anticipating a move into and through the adjacent LVN. Momentum Trades : As price enters an LVN, consider momentum-based strategies that align with the rapid movement towards the next area of high volume. Step 4: Trade Management Dynamic Adjustments : Actively manage trades based on real-time price action and structural changes. Be prepared to adjust stops and take profits as price interacts with marked levels. Volume Profile Updates : Regularly update the Volume Profile to reflect recent market activity, which may reveal new HVNs and LVNs, and adjust marked levels accordingly. Step 5: Review and Reflect Post-Trade Analysis : After trades are completed, review the accuracy of your structural analysis and how well price respected the HVN and LVN levels. Continuous Learning : Use this review process to refine your marking approach and color-coding system for improved clarity in future trading sessions. Conclusion : Using Volume Profile for structural market analysis allows a strategic understanding of potential price movement. By identifying high and low-volume areas from a macro perspective and zooming in to capture nuances in the price action, traders can craft informed and adaptive strategies that resonate with the underlying market dynamics. The guide emphasizes the importance of planning, execution, and post-analysis in the context of structural market analysis, promoting a disciplined yet flexible trading approach.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by traderofoptions
Oil / Crude Oil Heading into end of WeekSo we are on the Daily Not moving with much drive and lets say... obvious direction when it comes to day to day bias (Overall Bearish) I am ONLY focusing on PDH and PDL as targets today with any signal to buy or sell into the market being in a discount before I place a trade. Range day - yes To consider that Thursday's have seen good movement on Oil recently so keep this in mind. Consider also that the Daily wick CE is also aligned with the weekly ifvg. I will be looking to enter positions today as I am a scalper however anything on the 15min or above I would side with caution as prolonged moves may not be on the cards esp going on the last two weeks of PA. Also like to thank the people who Boost my posts it means a lot.
NYMEX:CL1!
by IamThattrader
How the Halving Will Impact the Bitcoin Market ? Bitcoin Halving: A Comprehensive Overview and Its Impact on the Market Bitcoin halving, an event that occurs every 210,000 blocks (approximately every four years), reduces the reward for miners who validate transactions and add new blocks to the blockchain by 50%. This mechanism is designed to control inflation and maintain the finite supply of Bitcoin, which is capped at 21 million coins. Objectives of Halving Controlled Inflation: Halving aims to counteract the inflationary effects of new Bitcoin creation by gradually reducing the issuance rate. This helps maintain the scarcity of the asset and its value over time. Unlike fiat currencies, where central banks can arbitrarily print money, Bitcoin's halving mechanism ensures a predictable and finite supply, preventing uncontrolled inflation. Sustainable Network Growth : By slowing down the mining reward, halving encourages miners to operate more efficiently and focus on long-term network security rather than solely pursuing short-term profits. This shift incentivizes miners to invest in reliable hardware and infrastructure, ensuring the stability and resilience of the Bitcoin network. BraveNewCoin Liquid index Impact of Halving on Bitcoin Price Historically, Bitcoin halving events have been associated with significant price increases. This can be attributed to several factors: Supply Reduction: As the mining reward decreases, the supply of new Bitcoins entering the market slows down. This reduced supply, coupled with consistent demand, can lead to price appreciation. For instance, after the first halving in 2012, Bitcoin's price surged by over 200% within a year. Market Anticipation: Investors often anticipate the positive impact of halving on price and start buying Bitcoin in advance of the event, driving up demand and price. This phenomenon is evident in the price movements leading up to each halving event. Psychological Effect: Halving serves as a milestone in Bitcoin's roadmap, reinforcing its scarcity and long-term potential, attracting more investors and boosting market sentiment. The halving event serves as a reminder of Bitcoin's finite supply and its potential as a store of value. The Upcoming Halving in April 2024 The next Bitcoin halving is expected to occur on April 19, 2024, at block height 840,000. This event is highly anticipated by the cryptocurrency community, and many analysts and experts are predicting a substantial price increase following the halving. Price Predictions: While price predictions are inherently uncertain, some analysts have made projections based on historical trends and market sentiment: Matrixport: $125,000 by the end of 2024 Pantera Capital: Over $147,000 in 2025 Bernstein: Potential rally in mining company stocks Potential Correction: While many anticipate a price surge, some analysts caution against excessive optimism and acknowledge the possibility of a temporary price correction following the halving: JPMorgan: Price could drop to $42,000 Implications for Miners With the reduced mining reward, miners need to adapt their operations to remain profitable. This may involve: Optimizing Mining Efficiency: Miners will need to upgrade their hardware or switch to more energy-efficient mining pools to reduce operational costs. This could lead to consolidation in the mining industry, as less efficient miners may be forced to exit the market. Focusing on Transaction Fees: As the block reward decreases, transaction fees will become a more significant source of income for miners. This may encourage miners to support initiatives that increase network usage and transaction volume. Diversifying Revenue Streams: Miners may explore alternative revenue streams, such as offering mining services or developing other blockchain-related products. This diversification could help miners adapt to the changing dynamics of the cryptocurrency landscape. Conclusion Bitcoin halving is a crucial event that shapes the cryptocurrency landscape. While it has historically led to price appreciation, investors should exercise caution and conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions. The upcoming halving in April 2024 is expected to be a significant turning point for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market. Additional Notes: The halving process is embedded in Bitcoin's code and is an automated mechanism, not influenced by any individual or organization. This decentralized nature ensures the integrity and predictability of the halving process. Halving events occur at predetermined intervals and are not subject to any changes or delays. This fixed schedule provides miners and investors with clear expectations and allows for informed decision-making. The halving mechanism is designed to ensure the long-term sustainability and value of Bitcoin by maintaining its finite supply and aligning incentives for miners. This carefully crafted design contributes to Bitcoin's resilience and potential as a long-term asset.
Long
by Yaroslav_Krasko
Crude Oil WednesdayToday On the Daily I am in confliction with bias meaning that it could be changing soon if we repeat another bullish closing day. For this I have dropped down onto the 4hr TF and the most recent 4hr -ob is what I will be referencing as to Bullish or Bearish intra day PA. Scalpers Market atm If you un sure, sit still. We did close above the Daily v.i as I have mentioned in my previous posts... so my bias for 80.50 is in jeopardy but as a trader your mind must be dynamic. As I said sit still or scalp but not in the middle.
NYMEX:CL1!
by IamThattrader
BTC/Nasdaq Correlation 👀BTC often follows the technology sector of the stock market. Below you can see the Spearman-rank correlation, which better shows us the moments when two assets start to move in different direction What now? Now the NASDAQ is starting to slip because the market is overestimating interest rate expectations, after talks that there will be no lowering this year. This, of course, is not acceptable for the technological sector, because the main growth factor is cheap liquidity. What's next? It seems that we are in for a consolidation or even a small correction on the NASDAQ. Markets expect a positive rate cut or additional liquidity, which is not yet visible. 💡In general, this coincides with what I wrote earlier, that the growth will continue even after several months, near the end of summer.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDShort
by FeelsStrategy
SOL - Solana follows THIS FRACTAL📉Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts📈 Solana has made some great increases, and it's retraced back to support levels. By looking at the Drop-and-Pop fractal we've been watching, we can conclude tat for the short term, the support zones should hold at $140, with wicks as low as $120. We can also take a look at moving averages to get an idea of possible wick zones. We should continue to trade above the 50d moving averages (green) for the price to remain bullish. Losing the 50d will be a bearish indicator: "Overbought" flash in the weekly usually takes us into a short term correction phase, with prices trading closer to the green trendline: If you found this content helpful, please remember to hit like and subscribe and never miss a moment in the markets. _______________________ 📢Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates📢 👍Hit like & Follow 👍 CryptoCheck BINANCE:SOLUSDT
by CryptoCheck-