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Fractal

More SPY Bear Calls on selling +1 sig test right at the CloseSymbol SPY Open Date 11/10/2023 Put or Call Call Expiry Date 12/29/2023 Short Strike 460 Long Strike 462 Price to Open 0.28 Min Width Multiple 2 Risk Ratio 6.14 Return on Risk 16.3% Opening DTE 49 1 Day ROI% 0.33% Max Annual ROI % 121.3% SPY Bear call spread up at +2 sig on the daily buying range still in play. This one expires right up on Xmas break 12/22 It filled 16:00:17 EST at the high of the day both in underlying price AND spread. All this 17 secs AFTER the close on a FRIDAY!!! The bet is that the +1 sig still inside the 2nd order selling range plays some defense at the Blue highlighter. The speed and distance of this Nov rally is super powerful and the algo is just machine gun buying like Mad. It's left behind real gaps, and Buying imbalances all the way down to 420. If price advertises 444.50 I'll look to sell probably 464 or 465. The older SPY spread I opened up the previous week for the Dec 15 exp can be seen in Red highlighter. It was a thought that the +1 sig seller previously proven, would return. They did with some order flow, but got overwhelmed by the words of J.Powell this Thurs. I actually don't think that this is a high tick in SPY because QQQ and SOXL still have room to run on their selling algo deviations. But I am being consistent in my approach to the credit side and playing the probabilities market by market.
AMEX:SPYShort
by claypuzzle
1
#BTC 2024 Bull Run | Halvening PatternTLDR: WITH CONFIDENCE, Buy the double bottom of wave 2 ($13.8k / late 2023) before 2024 halvening. This is my strongest & fairest case for BTC. Were in a ABC correction from a Super Cycle Wave 5, an Elliot Wave 5, and forming a NEW GRAND SUPER CYCLE for BTC - 14/15 has touched the previous ATH WICK (wick2wick) after Wave 5 ABC Correction. - BTC Candle Body has NEVER touched the previous ATH - BTC Wick Bottoms HAVE TOUCHED ATH Wick Tops. (wick2wick) in 14/15 IF, BTC Candle bodies can touch the previous ATH, THIS CHART IS INVALID! Good luck Holders.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by XRP-Jonny
XLE Bull Put spread at intraday pullback after-1 sig testSymbol XLE Open Date 11/6/2023 Bear Call or Bull Put Put Expiry Date 12/22/2023 Short Strike 80 Long Strike 78 Price to Open 0.30 Min Width Multiple 4 Risk Ratio 5.67 Return on Risk 17.6% Opening DTE 46 1 Day ROI% 0.38% Max Annual ROI % 140.0% Longer term is bullish on XLE. Has engaged -1 sig Buying Oct 5 which would have been the best time and place to sell puts. Engaged again 10/26 through 10/30 and pushed away. And it pushed up to the VWAP of the bullish model. I would strictly say that the -1 sig has been engaged 6 days already, but the fact that it pushed up to the VWAP and sold off tells me that the buying algo is still in play. Sold Puts at the 80 strike below -2 sig on the bullish model. Overall, I do think XLE goes higher into the Bearish +1 sig near 89 and gives time for the 80 puts 46 DTE to die. Decent entry at .30 but the high trade of the day was .34. This was just above the 15 min chart -1 sig low which held the session beautifully. I don't expect that I could've gotten .34, but perhaps .32 was possible AT the 15min chart -1 sig low. If XLE pushes in the next few days down past 84 I will roll further out, and maybe 1 or 2 down. If XLE eats time and rallies up to 89 I will do nothing. If XLE gets a break above 89 and attacks 89.25 I will consider selling Calls at the 94 strike. SPY is steady today and sustaining it's hard Bull rally from last week, so XLE is not in sync with it.
AMEX:XLELong
by claypuzzle
1
GDX Put credit spread at -1 sigymbol GDX Open Date 11/9/2023 Put or Call Put Expiry Date 12/22/2023 Short Strike 25 Long Strike 24 Price to Open 0.12 Min Width Multiple 2 Risk Ratio 7.33 Return on Risk 13.6% Opening DTE 43 1 Day ROI% 0.32% Max Annual ROI % 115.8% GDX hit a -2 sig on the weekly timeframe back on Oct 4/5 just like a lot of stuff did. Pushed up and took out the previous bearish selling range, dipping into the gap range sellside liquidity above Grey box. Becaue it made such a V bottom and left so many 4h gaps, running over and through the bearish opposing gaps I think probabilities shift to Bullish continuation. Also, the fact that it pushed back INTO the weekly VA in Blue and held there for about a month makes me think the liquidity is Higher and it's reaching for it. This is a textbook setup for me, anticipating a -1 sig pullback and then the pricing algo steps in to push higher. The morning open saw the dive down to engage a buyer, then pushed away for a few hours, then I entered on the first 5 min pullback. However, the level doesn't seem to hold this morning and it's hunting for liquidity below on a gap down today. Chose the 25 short strike as it's about 2.5 sig the expected excursion from the entry -1 sig. I may sell more at the 24 strike if 26.60 is tested at -2 sig. Right now, I anticipate the weekly -2 sig selling level in Green near 25.60 will cause a buying bounce, if not the Daily/4h buying at the Blue line -2 sig doesn't step in before. This is all happening after Powell speech yesterday afternoon and the QQQ just keeps extending higher reaching for some sellside liquidity.
AMEX:GDXLong
by claypuzzle
IMX - Potential 430% Swing LongJust a late-night brain dump. I've been trading IMX and WOO for the past 6 months almost everyday and noticed they respect my strategy in similar fashion - so i wanted to look for a correlation between their price action. To my limited FA knowledge, they don't have anything in common at all, but that doesn't matter at all. With fractals, I don't care too much about the internal moves, but mainly pay attention to the swing points. It's pretty straightforward and an easy 430% win at worst if you just sit on your hands for 8-12 months. Could be a lot better if you'd take profit and compound them in between, but sometimes that doesn't end well. Let's see how that plays out.
BINANCE:IMXUSDLong
by cryptokebab
5
📈 Ethereum : Following Simple Patterns and Fractals 🔄ETH exhibits a penchant for adhering to straightforward patterns and repeating its fractals, providing traders with clear guidelines. The current trajectory aligns with a steep ascending trendline, marked by a decisive breakout from an ascending triangle and subsequent retest of the upper boundary. Presently, the expectation is for a replication of the established pattern. 📊 Key Observations: 📉 Trendline Dynamics: ETH is adhering closely to a steep ascending trendline, a testament to the significance of technical patterns in guiding its movements. 🚀 Ascending Triangle Breakout: The recent breakout from an ascending triangle pattern underscores the market's commitment to the upward trajectory. 📈 Technical Analysis: 🔄 Retest of Upper Boundary: The successful retest of the upper boundary following the breakout solidifies the technical significance of the pattern. 🔄 Expected Pattern Replication: 📉 Repeating Fractal Patterns: Given ETH's historical tendency to replicate fractal patterns, there is an anticipation of the current pattern repeating. 📊 Strategic Considerations: 🧐 Pattern Recognition: Traders should maintain a keen focus on recognizing and interpreting patterns as ETH continues to evolve within its established technical framework. 📝 Conclusion: ETH's adherence to simple patterns and fractals is evident in its current trajectory, with a recent breakout and successful retest reinforcing the technical dynamics at play. Traders are observant of the potential replication of the established pattern, leveraging this insight for strategic decision-making. 🚀 Unlock my 3 crypto trading indicators for FREE! 🚀
by AlexWhale
1
Bitcoin Halving's Impact AnalysisBitcoin Halving Cycles Performance (Pre/Post 1 year performance) Halving's Pre/Post year Performance: 1. 26th Nov 2012 - Pre 416% / Post 7715% 2. 9th July 2016 - Pre 110% / Post 283% (The full move including after the 24 month period was c.955%) 3. 11th May 2020 - Pre 76% / Post 423% 4. 27th April 2024 - Pre 50% / Post 200% Pre Summary (from H2) - 110% - 76% - 50% prediction (reducing by c.25% each halving). Post Summary (from H2) - 955% - 423% - 200% prediction (reduces by c. 50% each halving) You can see the pattern in the reduced returns in each halving. The pre halving returns typically reduce by 25% a halving and the post halving returns reduce by 100% per halving. We ignore the first having as it was exponential introductory growth of the asset. Important Dates are 27th April 2024 (halving date). Good place to skim or wait for a pullback). Also the date of 25th April 2025. This is a softer date, a take profit early date potentially, most cycles have ended in Q4 of the given year thus some chips should be left on the table post April 2025 depending on the continued performance up to that point. Always a pleasure, I hope its been insightful Puka
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by PukaCharts
6
CAUTION: NASDAQ-100 SLOWING DOWN MAY REVERT TO MEAN!NASDAQ-100 last trading week of 2023 saw the index slowing down, which may indicate the start of weakness in the index. The weakness may cause the index to revert to its mean. However, the index may also pick up its strength to create more highs. N.B! - NAS100USD price might not follow drawn lines . Actual price movement may likely differ from the forecast. - Let emotions and sentiments work for you - ALWAYS Use Proper Risk Management In Your Trades #NASDQ
OANDA:NAS100USD
by BullBearMkt