Fractal
25-Sep-24Yesterday's forecast has been accurate so far, but I'm no longer sure that we will reach a higher high today, but may instead drop to a lower low first. The same principle of tightening leverage above and below the range could cause liquidity hunting in both directions to briefly break below and above the range.
CRYPTO MARKET CAP NEARS 200W MA! PRE-CRASH VIBES?Hello, fellow traders! Today, I'd like to share an intriguing analysis of the Crypto Total Market Cap chart, highlighting potential areas of reversal and target zones that could shape the market's direction in the coming months.
By examining different timeframes, I've discovered an interesting scenario unfolding on the weekly chart. The price action in 2024 appears to be forming a downward channel , reminiscent of a pattern we saw back in 2019 . This analysis could provide valuable insights for anticipating future market movements and identifying trading opportunities.
In 2019 , the crypto market experienced a significant advance in Q1 and Q2 before entering a declining channel. Many of us remember what happened next: Bitcoin started moving upwards, pulling the total market cap out of the channel. This movement coincided with the onset of the COVID-19 outbreak in China, leading to a failed rally . It wasn't until February 2020 that we witnessed signs of a market turning point, followed by a substantial crash during the global lockdown.
Fast forward to today, we're noticing similar patterns:
$2.5 Trillion Level: This level mirrors the failed rally point of 2020 and serves as a critical resistance area. A break above could signal bullish momentum.
$1.0 Trillion Level: This zone might act as a potential "surprise" support level in the event of unexpected market downturns.
Additionally, the 200-week moving average is acting as a significant support line. We might see the price spike below this average briefly during high volatility but expect it to recover above shortly after.
What are your thoughts on this setup? Do you think we're heading towards a failed rally similar to 2019, or are we on the brink of setting new all-time highs? Could external factors influence the market as they did back then? Share your insights and let's discuss!
Remember, the crypto market is highly unpredictable. Protecting your capital through proper risk management is crucial. A fundamental strategy is to risk no more than 1% of your capital per trade.
If you found this analysis helpful, please like and follow for more in-depth market insights. Stay tuned for future posts where we'll explore emerging trends and potential trading strategies. Happy trading!
24-Sep-24Price is in the "middle" as we approach the end of the month. This can cause a gradual tightening of leverage at the upper and lower bounds of the range.
This can cause a range squeeze, where alternating upper and lower breakouts gradually expand the range, resulting in a megaphone formation.
Higher timeframe resistancePrice mitigated the internal daily supply zone, which is now acting as the highest timeframe resistance. After the mitigation a retracement occurred in a corrective manner to give us a contraction before the volatile move that cleared the swing low at 2.12600. With the swing low being cleared, we have a shift and price has already triggered the breaker block as indicated. We now was liquidity generated about, looking for the liquidity to be swept and the order block to be respected for a clean bearish entry at 2.13200. The stop is 30 pips which is at 2.13500 and the target is 2.11700 which is a total of 150 pips, the anticipation is a 1:5 trade…
USDJPY 9/23/24💹
👁️ Outlook
30m Context Time Frame: Price have been breaking bullish and surfing above the emas. Price had just came off the 50ema and I would like to see price come back to the 10/20 emas on the 6m time frame for a valid pullback before looking for longs.
Daly Bias: Bullish
Keeping an eye on this. 👁️
Using Probability to Guide My Long Positions on NZDUSDThe NZDUSD pair is showing bullish potential due to several key factors.
Recent US inflation data came in softer than expected, which could lead to a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve.
Additionally, the Fed's recent interest rate cut is likely to weaken the US dollar, benefiting the New Zealand dollar.
These factors, combined with NZDUSD's positive momentum over the past week and month, support a bullish outlook for the pair.
To capitalize on this potential, I'm using probability-based analysis to enter long positions. By focusing on high-probability setups, I aim to achieve more consistent results over time.
12M:
2W:
1H:
I’d love to hear your thoughts on the NZDUSD outlook and my trading strategy. Please share your insights or questions in the comments below!
23-Sep-24 UpdateToday's forecast started off well, but my targets are now deeper.
The red magnet represents a liquidity pool created by the recent high, which was made below a big even, also while trading is around the mean.
After the supply zone is filled, I think we will drift down to touch the bottom of the demand zone represented by the green magnet.
Longer term view: