Probabilities Powering BTCUSD TradesUtilizing probabilities based on historical data is a cornerstone of my bullish strategy for BTCUSD. Here’s why I believe this approach is not only effective but essential for positioning long trades successfully.
Understanding the Importance of Probabilities
Probabilities in Trading
Trading is inherently uncertain, and relying on probabilities allows traders to make informed decisions rather than guesses. By analyzing historical price movements and patterns, we can identify trends that have previously led to upward or downward movements. This statistical approach helps mitigate risks associated with emotional decision-making.
Historical Data as a Guide
Historical data provides a wealth of information about how BTCUSD has reacted under various market conditions. By employing a mechanical trading strategy that incorporates these indicators, I can increase my chances of entering profitable trades.
Mechanical Trading Strategy
What is a Mechanical Trading Strategy?
A mechanical trading strategy is a systematic approach that uses predefined rules based on historical data to make trading decisions. This method eliminates emotional bias and ensures consistency in trade execution.
Benefits of a Mechanical Approach
1. Consistency: Adhering to a mechanical strategy means that trades are executed based on data rather than emotions.
2. Backtesting: Historical data allows for backtesting strategies to see how they would have performed in the past, providing confidence in their potential effectiveness.
3. Risk Management: By employing probabilities, I can better manage risk through calculated position sizing and stop-loss orders.
Current Market Context
In the current market environment, BTCUSD shows signs of bullish momentum. The formation of higher lows indicates strength, and historical patterns suggest that we may be at the beginning of another significant upward trend. By leveraging probabilities derived from past performance, I am positioning myself to capitalize on this potential movement.
Conclusion
In summary, utilizing probabilities based on historical data through a mechanical trading strategy equips me with a robust framework for entering long positions in BTCUSD. This approach not only enhances my decision-making process but also aligns with my overall bullish bias. As we navigate the complexities of the crypto market, relying on data-driven strategies will be crucial for achieving success in our trades.
1D:
6H:
Fractal
XAUUSD 10/15/24💡
🔍 5hr time frame: XAUUSD has been accumulating/trending bullish above the 10/20emas and has corrected into the 10/20emas.
📈 30m: XAUUSD has now showed bullishness on the 30m time frame however we need a correction back into the 10/20emas before scaling down to our 5m time frame.
Bias: Bullish
BTC 10/14/24 - 10/18/24💡
🔍 5hr time frame: BTC has been accumulating/trending bullish above the 10/20emas and has corrected into the 10/20emas.
📈 30m: BTC has now showed bullishness on the 30m time frame however we need a correction back into the 10/20emas before scaling down to our 5m time frame to look for entries.
Bias: Bullish
USDJPY 10/14/24 - 10/18/24💡
🔍 5hr time frame: has been accumulating/trending bullish above the 10/20emas and has corrected into the 10/20emas.
📈 30m: has now showed bullishness/impulse above the 10/20emas. Price has showed a valid correction into the 10/20emas.
🎯 5m: Scaling down to the 5m time frame to find entries if we can hold bullish by NY session.
Bias: Bullish
XAUUSD 10/14/24 - 10/18/24💡
🔍 5hr time frame: XAUUSD has been accumulating/trending bullish above the 10/20emas and has corrected into the 10/20emas. I will be waiting for the 30m time frame to make a impulse and show a valid impulse above the 10/20emas as well as a correction into the 10/20emas just like the 5hr has showed.
Bias: Bullish
NAS100 10/14/24 - 10/18/24💡
🔍 5hr time frame: NAS100 has been accumulating/trending bullish above the 10/20emas and has corrected into the 10/20emas. I will be waiting for the 30m time frame to make a impulse and show a valid impulse above the emas as well as a correction into the 10/20emas just like the 5hr has showed.
Bias: Bullish
USDJPY swing trade update. 800 pips done! We sent out our this next analysis exactly a month ago to our members at Fractals Trading Community: "After falling for almost a month, dollar has gained some strength in recent weeks and the Japanese currency intervention is seemingly slowing down, as we have seen some huge bullish moves on other pairs. As seen on chart, the price has hit the weekly 0.618 fib level and the VWAP drawn from the start of the second quarter(March). For our TP levels we target 146.55; 149 and 152. Will update next week." (linked idea)
Setup is currently running with 2 TP levels already hit. Will send a new analysis next week.
This analysis is taught and provided by Fractals Trading.
Trade safely and expect the unexpected,
Mei
GBPCAD swing trade idea(1:10RR)Hi,
GBPCAD swing short setup. It´s similar to our USDCAD analysis sent out yesterday, with many confluences indicating for a impulse downwards(Quarterly VWAP and fib levels). Be careful to trade this pair, as their is many macroeconomic news next week for both the currencies.
This analysis is taught and provided by Fractals Trading Community.
Trade safely and expect the unexpected,
Mei
13-Oct-24Price has lingered at this level without a correction to establish support. I think we will fall straight back to 60K, before breaking through and bouncing back.
The narrative goes like this:
1. Low liquidity market trending sideways at a big even
2. Price breaks to lower low, providing whales with the liquidity they need to buy in
3. Whales buying below the LL cause a short squeeze to the top of the range without breaking out.
4. (You are here) Price is now over extended at the top of the range, and the bullish rejection has left a lot of confident stop losses below the low.
5. (Maybe) Price rapidly falls back to the demand zone, with only a small bounce before squeezing longs by breaking to lower lows.
6. (Extra maybe) Now the market has cleared out the weak hands from the range, so only the low leverage positions remain. This allows the market to lower it's volatility and establish it's longer term trend, which I think will be bullish.
BULLISH DIVERGENCE + WEEKLY HEIKIN ASHI S/RHeikin Ashi weekly S/R levels are determined by red bars with no wick after an uptrend.
Those levels coincide EXACTLY with all the retracement Fibonnaci levels from current swing from the latest high. To me this is a signal that don't go lower.
Note as well the bullish divergence that already started a bullish rally previously.
Close to the recovery!
DOGS price is preparing for growth?The white candlesticks on SEED_ALEXDRAYM_SHORTINTEREST1:DOGS price chart depict the previous fractal movement of the #NOTUSDT price.
For OKX:DOGSUSDT price to repeat this path, it needs to break through the trend line and gain a foothold above $0.00075 in the coming days.
If this condition is met, then the purchase zone of $0.00075 - $0.00081 will be available for several days before the real pump begins.
Follow the development of this idea so as not to miss the chance.
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