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Fractal

WILL GOLD'S H4 WEAKNESS LEAD TO MORE PRICE DECLINE?Gold is showing weakness on the H4 timeframe with a heavy price fall below a swing low in yesterday's trading. The metal's price is now rising toward a previously created resistance level. Will there be a price rejection at the resistance level, or will the price zoom past it to create another swing high? N.B! - XAUUSD price might not follow the drawn lines . Actual price movements may likely differ from the forecast. - Let emotions and sentiments work for you - ALWAYS Use Proper Risk Management In Your Trades #gold #xauusd
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by BullBearMkt
AMD Chart-Based Probabilistic TargetsFRACTAL SCALING For a start I'll use the monthly timeframe that captures the broader market cycles and observes the structural trends to understand the scale and distribution of randomness over time. We need a solid foundation before diving into finer timeframes for more detailed analysis. Capturing critical points of a cycle with Fibonacci channels, especially when aligned with the direction of the trend, reveals hidden non-linear dynamics due to the following reasons: Fibonacci ratios reveal fractal structures that align with key reversal points in cycles, reflecting inherent market patterns. Directionality highlights trend asymmetries, showing where price reacts differently in bullish or bearish conditions. Cycles map the rhythm of reversals, exposing non-random patterns in market transitions. Price reacts disproportionately at Fibonacci levels, reflecting non-linear market forces like supply and demand. Hidden symmetry emerges, revealing harmonic relationships within price swings. Integration of time and price uncovers rhythm, where significant moves align with Fibonacci projections. Historical patterns anticipate future reactions, showing the underlying structure of market behavior. Justified Shift This version of the wave metrics aligns the top of the Fibonacci channel with a more recent cycle high, allowing it to better reflect the current price structure. By anchoring the top cycle closer to the present price action, the analysis enhances the accuracy of the underlying frequency dynamics and non-linear relationships. This adjustment also highlights a clearer transition between past and current cycles, capturing how momentum evolves within the channel. The updated metrics likely improve the identification of potential reversal zones or continuation points relative to the new cycle top. Curves Curves are essential in fractal analysis because they reveal the non-linear dynamics and self-similar structures that govern market behavior. Unlike straight lines, curves accurately model the natural rhythm of price movements, capturing how trends accelerate or decelerate over time and oscillate between key levels. By connecting critical price points such as highs, lows, and retracement levels, curves expose the proportional relationships that link fractals, often aligning with natural laws like the Fibonacci sequence. They also define boundaries like "Full Capacity," highlighting where price tends to exhaust momentum and reverse, offering a roadmap for identifying turning points. Furthermore, curves integrate time and price, capturing the dynamic relationship between the two and providing deeper insights into how cycles evolve and repeat. In fractal analysis, they bridge the gap between mathematical models and real market behavior, making them invaluable for interpreting and anticipating price action. Weekly Timeframe AMD’s remarkable growth of 14,018.01% from $1.61 to its all-time high signals an impressive rally, but it also raises the likelihood of growing bearish pressure as the market enters an overheated condition. Such parabolic moves are rarely sustainable, and they often lead to exhaustion, where natural resistance levels, such as the upper bounds of the Fibonacci channel, come into play. These levels, particularly the "Full Capacity" threshold, often signal overbought conditions, triggering profit-taking by institutional investors and traders. As price approaches these critical thresholds, momentum typically begins to slow, with indicators like RSI or volume divergence potentially signaling weakening bullish sentiment. The natural cyclical behavior of markets, combined with extended valuations, creates a favorable environment for bearish reversals. Additionally, macroeconomic risks, declining earnings growth, or broader fundamental concerns can further amplify selling pressure. If price fails to maintain upward momentum or begins forming bearish reversal patterns such as lower highs or rising wedges, it may confirm that the market is entering a corrective phase. Monitoring technical indicators, such as volume trends and momentum divergences, alongside fundamental triggers, will be essential in assessing whether bearish pressure will dominate in the near term. Repetitive Patterns The repetitive pattern circled in yellow represents a critical cyclical phase in AMD's price movement. Each time this pattern completes, it is immediately followed by an "off-the-range" move that resembles the beginning of a super cycle. This phenomenon suggests that the yellow-circled phase acts as a precursor to a significant shift in the market's dynamics, where price transitions into a larger, more powerful trend. That fractal may indicate consolidation or accumulation, where price oscillates within a confined range before breaking out. This breakout initiates a super cycle, marked by a rapid and sustained directional move beyond the previous range. The repetitive nature of this sequence highlights the fractal behavior of the market, where similar patterns recur at different scales, providing opportunities to anticipate major market movements. Fractal I Fractal II
NASDAQ:AMD
by fract
8
USDT Dominance Road Map: Crypto Market Cycles📌 USDT Dominance Prediction: Crypto Market Cycles 🔵 🧭 Roadmap Overview: This chart maps out the cyclical nature of USDT dominance in the crypto market, which reflects investor sentiment and capital flows between stablecoins and risk assets like Bitcoin and altcoins. USDT Dominance represents the percentage of the total crypto market cap held in Tether (USDT). When USDT dominance rises, it typically signals a bear market as investors move to stablecoins for safety. Conversely, when USDT dominance falls, it signals a bull market, as capital flows into riskier assets. 🔎 Historical Cycles & Trends: 1️⃣ 2018-2020 Bull Run (USDT Dominance Falls): During this period, we saw capital flowing out of USDT into BTC and altcoins, fueling a bull market. 2️⃣ 2021-2022 Bear Run (USDT Dominance Rises): Following the crypto crash in 2022, USDT dominance spiked as investors fled risk assets. 3️⃣ 2024-2025 Bull Run (USDT Dominance Expected to Fall): We are now entering a new bull market phase, with the Bitcoin halving in April 2024 acting as a major catalyst. 🧩 Where We Are Now: USDT Dominance is currently at 4.25%. Based on historical patterns: I expect USDT dominance to fall over the next few years, signaling the start of a new bull run in crypto. The next bear market will likely begin after 2028, as USDT dominance starts to rise again. ⚡ How USDT Dominance Impacts the DXY: Capital Flow from Crypto to USD: When USDT dominance rises, it means capital is flowing out of risk assets like Bitcoin into stablecoins, which are backed by USD reserves. This inflow into USD can strengthen the DXY in the short term. De-Dollarization Risks: If crypto-native stablecoins (like DAI or even future decentralized stablecoins) gain adoption, they could bypass the USD entirely, reducing demand for USD-backed stablecoins and weakening the DXY. Cross-Border Payments with Stablecoins: As stablecoins become more widely used for international settlements, they could start to replace traditional SWIFT payments that rely on USD reserves, further reducing the need for the dollar in global trade. 💬 Do you think crypto adoption could challenge the dominance of the USD and impact the DXY? Let me know your thoughts below! 👇 #DXY #USD #Crypto #USDT #Stablecoins #Bitcoin #DeDollarization #Forex #Trading #MacroAnalysis #BTC
CRYPTOCAP:USDT.D
by Ehsanzh
DXY Long-Term Roadmap🧭 Roadmap Overview: The DXY (US Dollar Index) moves in multi-decade cycles of bull and bear runs, reflecting changes in global economic conditions, monetary policies, and investor sentiment. In this chart, I’ve mapped out a long-term roadmap based on historical cycles that indicate where we are now and what to expect in the future. I’ve also included how crypto adoption and stablecoins could potentially impact the DXY in the coming years. 🔎 Historical Cycles & Trends: 1️⃣ 1980-1985 Bull Run: Driven by Federal Reserve rate hikes to combat inflation. The DXY reached a peak around 160, marking a major bull run. 2️⃣ 1985-1995 Bear Run: The Plaza Accord in 1985 led to a devaluation of the dollar. The DXY dropped significantly during this period. 3️⃣ 1995-2002 Bull Run: The dot-com boom and a period of economic expansion saw the DXY rally once again, reaching highs above 120. 4️⃣ 2002-2008 Bear Run: Post-9/11 and the housing bubble crash triggered a major decline in the DXY. 5️⃣ 2008-2022 Bull Run: The global financial crisis in 2008, combined with Fed tightening policies, triggered a long bull run in the DXY, peaking around 114 in 2022. 🧩 Where We Are Now: Currently, the DXY is at a critical inflection point. Based on historical cycles: The next bear run is expected to start soon, driven by a potential Fed pivot to lower interest rates and increasing global de-dollarization efforts. After this bear run, I expect another multi-year bull run, starting around 2030, as the dollar remains the world’s primary reserve currency. ⚡ How Crypto Could Impact the DXY: 🔵 1. Bitcoin as a Hedge Against USD: Bitcoin is often seen as digital gold, offering investors a way to diversify away from the U.S. dollar. If Bitcoin adoption grows globally, it could reduce demand for USD and put downward pressure on the DXY. 🟢 2. Stablecoins Competing with USD: Stablecoins like USDT, USDC, and DAI are pegged to the USD and used globally as digital dollars. However, if crypto-native stablecoins start to replace traditional banking systems, it could challenge the dominance of the USD in global trade. For example: USDT has a higher daily transaction volume than PayPal. Crypto transactions across borders bypass traditional banking systems, reducing the need for USD reserves. 🟡 3. De-Dollarization & Crypto Adoption: Countries like Russia, China, and BRICS nations are pushing to reduce reliance on the USD. If they adopt crypto or blockchain-based settlement systems, it could accelerate the decline of the DXY. Example: Russia is exploring digital currencies to settle international trade. China’s digital yuan (CBDC) aims to reduce reliance on the USD for cross-border payments. ⚡ Key Risk: The more crypto adoption grows, the more demand for traditional USD may decline, which could negatively impact the DXY in the long term. 🎯 Predicted Cycles: 📉 Bear Run: 2025-2030 📈 Bull Run: 2030-2040 💬 What are your thoughts on how crypto adoption could impact the future of the DXY? Let me know your thoughts below! 👇 #DXY #USD #Crypto #USDT #Stablecoins #Bitcoin #DeDollarization #Forex #Trading #MacroAnalysis #BTC
TVC:DXY
by Ehsanzh
Bullish Bias Until Opposing DisplacementClassic SMC concept: Price at Premium area, in order to gather liquidity it has to go to Discount area. Lets break down it into available Week unfolding Scenario: Scenario A: The easiest target for Price is to take PWH (Premium) and then we may face the some sort of displacement it could create Daily/4h -OB then we may trade up to Thursday for having Bearish Bias (short term) by keeping in mind Bullish Bias intact in mind (long term). Scenario B: Price may drop into FVG:BISI(4h) and may turn Bullish and then we may notice FVG creation on Monday and may ride Tuesday retracement to frame Bullish trade up to Thursday/Friday.
TVC:DXY
by Arrsalaan
1
Technical Analysis of Spot Gold (XAU/USD) – January 12, 2025The #gold market continues its upward trend, and in lower timeframes, positive signs of further upward movement are visible. Based on the updated chart data, the following analysis is provided: Overall Market Overview The 4-hour chart of spot gold prices shows successful attempts to maintain levels above key support zones. The addition of the Ichimoku cloud in this analysis provides further insight into the trend direction. Currently, the price is near the critical resistance level of $2,700, with the market showing a strong inclination to break through this level. Trend Analysis Using Ichimoku The Ichimoku cloud indicates a strong bullish trend: The price is above the Ichimoku cloud, signaling a strong uptrend. The Kijun-Sen and Tenkan-Sen lines also have an upward slope, providing support for the price. The gap between the price and the Ichimoku cloud indicates dynamic support around the $2,650 level. Key Support and Resistance Levels Support Levels: The first strong support is around the $2,650 range, further reinforced by the Ichimoku cloud. The second support is observed around $2,620, which is highly significant. Resistance Levels: The first resistance lies in the $2,700 range. Breaking this level could lead to an acceleration in the uptrend. The second resistance is observed at $2,760, a critical level for continuing the bullish movement. Bullish Scenario If the price can break above the $2,700 resistance and stabilize in this range, the next bullish targets will be around $2,760. The positive slope of the Ichimoku lines and the overall uptrend increase the likelihood of this scenario. Bearish Scenario If the price fails to break through the $2,700 resistance, a price correction toward the $2,650 support level may occur. If this support level breaks, the price could drop to $2,620 or even lower levels. Summary and Conclusion Based on the current analysis, the overall gold market trend is still bullish. The $2,700 level plays a crucial role in determining the market’s next direction. Breaking this resistance could push the market toward higher targets, while falling below the $2,650 level may signify the start of a corrective phase. Recommendation: For traders and investors, closely monitoring the key levels and analyzing trading volumes alongside tools like RSI and MACD can help identify entry and exit points effectively.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by MD-Priceaction
looks DYM is bearish in the medium term (12H)We had a downward move, followed by a pause, and then the price is continuing to decline. When the bottom of the green box at $0.963 is broken with a daily candle, we will have further confirmation. These fractals can be labeled as ABC waves. However, for those looking for sell/short positions, the red box can be a potential zone to consider. The closing of a daily candle above the invalidation level will invalidate this analysis. For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management Comment if you have any questions Thank You
by behdark
BTC | FRACTAL | Multi Month to Higher High?BTC has been full of surprises - but I'm not complaining. Initially, I was following a strict Elliot Wave Theory pattern, which played out extremely well - until the price shot out above the target. I then re-adjusted the target to just under or just over 100k, which hit shortly after. The most interesting part though, is actually Ethereum. The fact that ETH has not yet made a new ATH after the dramatic BTC high, likely tells us the bull cycle is far form over. I've been making a few updates on ETH and Altseason, and how you use the BTC.D chart, the BTC chart and the TOTAL# together to get a clear indication of where we are at in the cycle. I've done MANY updates using this chart, because it is such a powerful combo to use. The fact remains - we have not yet seen a new ETH ath. This raises flags (and in the best possible way) indicating that the bullish cycle is not yet over. _____________________________________ BYBIT:BTCUSDT COINBASE:ETHUSD
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by CryptoCheck-
1
Potential Supercycle brewing w/ left moved cycle narrativePlease view my previous idea on the left moved/translated cycle, that would now pave the way for the Supercycle á lá Su Zhu. Early and aggressive market top that would then send us as low as the prices we have seen during the ETF introduction to the market (potential bottom around 36-42k) / smashing right through the previous ATH as support and then go higher. I expect the macro situation to worsen, but the damages that have been done during Covid, will heal over time (Inflation, destabilization of the market and tension on borders as well as supply + demand). Nothing more to add here, just an idea of what I believe the market will do over the course of the next few years.
Long
by awesometrador
2
Gold to USD (XAU/USD) Analysis - 1-Hour Timeframe Key Levels to Watch: Resistance Levels: The $2660 level serves as the immediate resistance near the current price. Higher resistance levels are located at $2680 and $2700, both of which could act as strong barriers. Support Levels: The $2640 level is acting as a key support, currently being tested by the price. If $2640 breaks, the next support lies at $2620, followed by a stronger support level at $2600. Trend Overview: A short-term uptrend has been visible since December 23rd, suggesting bullish momentum. Currently, the price is correcting around the $2640 level, which might provide a good buying opportunity if the support holds. Trade Idea: Buy Opportunity If the price respects the $2640 support level and forms bullish reversal candlesticks (e.g., a hammer or bullish engulfing candle), a buy position can be considered. Targets: Target 1: $2660 Target 2: $2680 Stop Loss (SL): Below $2635 (5 dollars below the key support). Scenario for Support Break: If the price breaks below $2640 and stabilizes below this level, it might move toward $2620 or even $2600. In this case, it’s better to wait for a new confirmation before entering a position. Conclusion: The $2640 support level is crucial in determining the next direction for gold. A proper stop loss and adherence to risk management strategies are essential for navigating this trade effectively.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by MD-Priceaction
Daily Market Review and Analysis for BTC: January 8, 2025#BTC (1D timeframe) As suggested in yesterday's analysis, #Bitcoin continued its downward direction, removing the expected price level of $95,919. It is now highly likely that the price will continue the downward direction further, reaching the long awaited fundamental level of $90,500, removing liquidity for sellers (SSL). That is, it means almost 5% cheapening of the price. After reaching this level, two scenarios will emerge: 1) Price will start a local uptrend to reach the 50% gap on the 4-hour chart - $99,433 and then rush down again, but already to the price level of $88,722. 2) Price after liquidity removal of 90,500, will continue downtrend and take also liquid level at $88,722. !!! The most negative but justified scenario would be for price to seek to reach the middle of the weekly gap at $85,000. I remain in my opinion that for bitcoin to update its all-time high, the first cryptocurrency needs to take out the above liquidity levels at the bottom and I think that as the inauguration of the new US President Donald #Trump (20 January, 2025) approaches, by then the bearish scenario I described with a bottom at $85,000 will have worked out.
Short
by alihuseyn
Daily Market Review and Analysis for BTC: January 7, 2025#BTC (4h) The total market capitalization of digital assets increased by 1.75% over the past 24 hours, and the dominance of the leading cryptocurrency grew by 0.6%. #Bitcoin moved toward the first liquidity zone around $101,000, but the upward momentum was halted by seller pressure at $102,650. Then, Bitcoin lost the lower boundary of the formation, and the price continued to consolidate above the POC level ($97,400) before the next upward impulse. Currently, the primary target for a decline is the $95,924 level. From there, there is a high probability of testing the gap midpoint at $99,433, after which the price will either move upward toward $102,724 or continue its decline to $90,500. I am consolidating my previous thoughts from analyses that until the Bitcoin price at least clears the liquidity pools at $90,500, $88,722 and $85,000 levels, all upward price momentum above the $100,000 level will be considered a manipulation of the highs.
Short
by alihuseyn