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Scott Carney's "Deep Crab" & the Fields Medal in MathematicsQ: What does the former have to do with the later? A: The intuition in the former (S. Carney) is born out by the later (A. Avila; Fields Medal - 2014) From Scott Carney's website; --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- "Harmonic Trading: Volume One Page 136 The Deep Crab Pattern™, is a Harmonic pattern™ discovered by Scott Carney in 2001. The critical aspect of this pattern is the tight Potential Reversal Zone created by the 1.618 of the XA leg and an extreme (2.24, 2.618, 3.14, 3.618) projection of the BC leg but employs an 0.886 retracement at the B point unlike the regular version that utilizes a 0.382-0.618 at the mid-point. The pattern requires a very small stop loss and usually volatile price action in the Potential Reversal Zone." --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- From Artur Avila's Fields Medal Citation; --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- "Artur Avila is awarded a Fields Medal for his profound contributions to dynamical systems theory, which have changed the face of the field, using the powerful idea of renormalization as a unifying principle. Description in a few paragraphs: Avila leads and shapes the field of dynamical systems. With his collaborators, he has made essential progress in many areas, including real and complex one-dimensional dynamics, spectral theory of the one-frequency Schrödinger operator, flat billiards and partially hyperbolic dynamics. Avila’s work on real one-dimensional dynamics brought completion to the subject, with full understanding of the probabilistic point of view, accompanied by a complete renormalization theory. His work in complex dynamics led to a thorough understanding of the fractal geometry of Feigenbaum Julia sets. In the spectral theory of one-frequency difference Schrödinger operators, Avila came up with a global description of the phase transitions between discrete and absolutely continuous spectra, establishing surprising stratified analyticity of the Lyapunov exponent." --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The connection here, as it is related to the specific "Deep Crab" harmonic pattern in trading, between intuition and general, analytical result, is illustrated somewhat simplified (but without distortion). In essence, Avila has shown that in dynamical systems, in the neighborhood of phase-transitions in the case of one-dimensional (such as: Price) unimodal distributions, after the onset of chaos, there are islands of stability surrounded nearly entirely by parameters that give rise to stochastic behavior where transitions are Cantor Maps - i.e., fractal. From that point it is an obvious next step to generalize to other self-affine fractal curves , such as the blancmange curve , which is a special case of w=1/2 of the general form: the Takagi–Landsberg curve. The "Hurst exponent"(H) = -log2(w) , which is the measure of the long-term-memory of a time series . Putting it all together, it is not pure coincidence that a reliable pattern (representation) emerges from intuition (observation) which proves to be a highly stable (reliable) pattern that is most often the hallmark of a near-term, violent transition.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Education
by Nemo_Confidat
Would love to see the sell side liquidity taken out I would love to see the sell side liquidity taken out prior to the relatively equal lows where liquidity is resting below and it happens to be just below the discount zones... yesterday I and my community went long on GBPUSD/AUDUSD and eurusd ...if you have been following my shared ideas here I did say I would love to see the buyside liquidity on Gbpusd taken out ..well go look at your chart ..anyways stay safe guys ... #Iamace #Acethetrader #AcetradeingAcademy
by ace_did_it
Can Bitcoin make 500% in next 200 Days ?Nothing special to see here folks But let's take a look back after 6 months will pass from now on. Let's see if I finally decrypted the right fractal again. China ... China ... China BARTS head and CHINAs ape the same :jokes on you: Cheers ChaChain ------------- Disclaimer: I´m not registered or licensed in any jurisdiction whatsoever to provide investing advice or anything of an advisory or consultancy nature, and therefore I´m unqualified to give investment recommendations. Always do your own research and consult with a licensed investment professional before investing. This communication is never to be used as the basis of making investment decisions, and it is for entertainment purposes only. KEYWORDS R:R, money management, risk, reward, technique, style, trading, bitcoin , bitcointrading, profitable trading, profittrading, profit trading, secret, divergence, bull divergence, bear divergence, divergencetrading, divergence trading, trading strategy, how to trade bitcoin , bitcoin trades, bitcoin trading, make profit, take profit, trading strategy, trading technique, successful, successful trader, successful technique, successful strategy, successful secret, how to trade, trend analysis, technical analysis , indicators, rsi , relative strenght index, let it rain, successful life, easy strategy, easy trading, easy technique, make money, crypto investing, investing, crypto, cryptocurrency, cryptocurrencies, mentoring, money, chartart, beyond technical analysis
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Anoinvest
32
AUD USD - Trade update forward to AprilHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. A bullish scenario is needed, as well as a bearish, this is a game of patience. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Magenta = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Previous analysis: link here: The Aussie has now passed 0.76 hurdle first, using a a daily Fibonacci on the daily chart, the price levels of this very strong strength from the Australian Dollar, the Fibonacci retracement of 0.382% is a strong possibility which has now been proved as price action here tapped 0.772 zone and consolidated while still making higher lows - giving confidence of confluence here rising to the monthly imbalance. The next Hurdle is 0.80 which is our target for the next 3-5 months. The plan since the original analysis, price has been bullish and driving towards the 0.80 mark as expected. beating the analysis prediction at an early scenario by 1 week. Monthly imbalances Price has rejected the previous yearly lows of AUD USD at 0.55 to a $1.00 This zone is a powerful buying zone for positional holders like us for two reasons; 1. - Price is clearly making lower highs 2. - The wicks are closing bullish - suggesting the zone is a fractal buying imbalance for buyers. Weekly time frame Imbalances The weekly imbalances are shown and provide a clear indicator where 0.80 was a great opportunity with a key wick where price closed at the same price. The weekly imbalances once the short has initiated shows the lows to monitor at the next imbalance where price will offer two key scenarios; 1. - The probability of the rally, base, rally continuation . 2. - The probability of a rally, bounce, rally where price will offer an opportunity to sell again. Weekly Fibonacci level using the high to the low - the retrace shows the opportunity at 0.618 or 61.8% - this also aligns next to the monthly "edge" however, looking left the wick highs failed to close inside 0.785XX, which means the rejection upon this level provides a perfect opportunity for a second sell position for a positional or weekly swing sell. SPX vs AUDUSD The correlation of the SPX and the Aussie is a positive correlation when the SPX is bullish , this allows the AUD USD to remain bullish . With respect for USD purposes where the SPX becomes bearish from an imbalance or has a trend breather, the correlation becomes a sell imbalance for the SPX and AUD based upon the USD having the fundamental safe haven positional stance for investors. Yields: Using Yields and the Volatility index to provide further evidence. Be aware of the Yields of the US05 - US20 Year, this can impact the SPX growth and AUD Bullish correlation. DXY criteria: DXY to see the imbalance reverse upon the devaluation of the USD where the FED has created an abundance of credit which has financed the citizens essentially to 'stay put' in cases whereby specific industry sectors within the US are rendered 'useless' until the hospitality and entertainment, aviation can all be kick started again. Below are the pivotal monthly imbalances on the chart which are hard to not notice. The Monthly imbalances clearly indicate where the profit targets for the DXY are as price has clearly rejected. Use this monthly imbalance analysis to help trade in a higher time frame. Correlation: Correlation of GBP AUD vs AUD USD Imbalance spotting is important to note on one pair like GBP AUD, however the web behind the imbalance is just as important to keep in mind when looking for imbalance trades as pairs are called pairs for a reason. Looking into two variables where correlation is either Perfect positive correlation +1, 0 or Perfect negative correlation -1 i in simple Lehman's terms. AUD is coming from a monthly imbalance meanwhile GBP AUD will turn positive where price is coming from a monthly buy imbalance. Comparing the GBP AUD to the AUD USD - using a monthly correlation grid. The current at time of analysing is -79.7% negatively correlated. This has been due to the weak USD in play and the positive correlation against the SPX500 and the USD associated with the index. XAU is also a factor here whereby XAU a hedge against inflation and a propulsion for the Aussie to provide further additional strength. Here is the graphical scale below: Where by the inverse of the AUD from 0.80 and a low of GBP AUD to 1.768XX, the opportunity arises for short positions and respective longs for the GBP. See the GBP AUD chart here for further updates. Gold production as the Aussie is a commodity currency. Gold discounted offering See here for the imbalances on Gold . This can help adjust the situation upon the USD. Why is gold falling? Well simply put volatile situations where the return of XAU maintains no yield, the Dollar however does Yield through interest rates. Gold will look to fall to level of around $1500 before examining next where the price is to move next. However pay attention to the 1700* whereby price has a good wick where price can closed out and may have an alternate buy opportunity here. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Short
by LupaCapital
2
Fractals - Super weekly Cycles repeatingFractals are inner parts of DFT strategy: Here some thoughts In this case, the super weekly cyles are repeating its loading pre bull pattern. Weekly pattern are strong indicators even if they are subject to an important lag. IMO this chart deserves to be published for what it worths. -Current price fractal shows a double top similar to the root fractal of 2017. Max deviation of the weekly price is currently reachs which is usually sign of tha local top & node not yet break out. -Current DFT fractal shows the same harmonics pattern to the root fractal of 2017. This could lead us to lateralisation of the price till the end of the year 2020 before a huge bull run.
KRAKEN:ETHUSD
by Mr_Gesier
1
BTC - fractal comparisonHi there! I just wonder if history can repeat again and make a similarly steps like in the past. Also I have to confess that I made this chart only to kill the time. Hence you have to take it with a pinch of salt. Whether it's possible to goes according to this trajectory I have no balls to say. I suppose the BTC -1.59% have to get 60% of dominance before we could see some real ride. If we wanna talk about the end of this bear market firstly we have to overcome two obstacle. There are two conditions which should be fulfil if we wanna talk about the uptrend : 1. break the daily MA 200 2. make a new daily higher peak It's so simple but so far at the same. Have a good day !
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by tommyelltom
14
$BTC - Fundamental analysis of its value (and why it will go up)Fractal Markets Theory: www.investopedia.com "The role of information is crucial in making sound decisions with any sort of investment strategy. Within the framework of FMH, the impact of information availability can lead to changes in time horizons and liquidity. During times of stability, FMH states all investors share the same information. How information is perceived results in the individual investment decisions: a day trader may perceive price fluctuations and decide to sell, while a pension fund manager will place less value on price movements. " Metcalfe's Law: en.wikipedia.org "Metcalfe's law states that the value of a telecommunications network is proportional to the square of the number of connected users of the system (n2)." Digital blockchain networks appear to be following Metcalfe’s Law: www.sciencedirect.com "Finally, the potential for identifying value bubbles that can be spotted as deviations in value from the model was discussed and illustrated using the data from one of the networks. Those value bubbles show up where repeated extremely high value increases are not accompanied by any commensurate increase in the number of participating users, or any other development that could give rise to the higher value." Fundamental analysis: Bitcoin holds many of the same intrinsic values as the internet, therefore should also follow the same theories that have been applied to the internet and other telecommunication networks. The growth of bitcoin's value from sub $10,000USD to $20,000 was artificial, leading to a lack of strong support when it faced media news/speculations used to destabilize it; news that bitcoin investors themselves spread. Following Metcalfe's Law, we can hypothesize that the run up to $20,000 was a bubble and we are now seeing bitcoin return to its original support, at a higher fiat value, due to an increase in users. Following the volume osc., we can see that historically price drops as it increases; this seems to be from panic selling causing oscillation to rise. As the volume osc. value decreases, bitcoin's dollar value naturally rises. I believe this is because of its natural growth as a coin, removing all the hype and FUD. The fundamental reasoning for its value diving in recent times is due to news being spread to manipulate the market value. Korea's government, who said they would ban it, reversed positions more than a few times, apologized for being so confusing, and even had inside trading with the officials who released negative statements on it. Now they are stating they do have a use for it. China said they would ban bitcoin in mid-late 2017 and Antshares/$NEO took a nose dive. NEO is a centralized (for now) cryptocurrency that ties blockchain to ID; it utilizes $GAS to fund ICOs and was chosen by China because of NEO's vetting process for ICOs. They wanted to cut down on scams and track their citizens' use. Referencing MEX_Exchange's fundamental reasoning: ICOs are funded with milliions of dollars in their pre/private stage from private investors and VCs; most credit cards have limits in the thousands. Limiting credit cards can shake market sentimentality, but only if cryptocurrency investors believe it to cause harm to its value. A lot of bearish predictions by well respected entities definitely is a fundamental reason for $BTC to lower in the short term.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by NeoButane
4
FRACTALS IN MARKETS: WEEKLY CHART VS 15 MINUTE CHARTBenoit Mandelbrot is famous for his contribution to the field of fractal geometry. While studying for his PhD at the University of Paris, he found that if a coastline is broken up into smaller pieces, the smaller pieces look exactly like the larger ones. In fact, the smallest piece of coastline looked exactly like the entire coastline. This concept is applied to everything in nature (trees vs smaller trees; a tree branch looks like a little tree, with smaller branches of its own.) Small pieces look exactly like the whole. It is because of this theory that time-frame does not matter in any market to trade. However, the smaller the time-frame, the faster you must react, and the shorter your stops and targets should be, which is inherently much more challenging to deal with - both emotionally and mechanically.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by Lanmar
1
WHY AUDUSD MIGHT BE A GOOD LONG-TERM SHORTALL CURRENCY PAIRS IN WHICH THE USD IS THE DENOMINATOR HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING A SIMILAR ARC SHAPE SINCE THE 2009 RECESSION. AS WE CAN SEE HERE, JPYUSD, CADUSD HAVE REACHED THEIR PREVIOUS SUPPORT AREAS. ONE CURRENCY PAIR THAT HASNT REACHED ITS PREVIOUS LOW IS THE AUDUSD. ALL MARKETS WORK TOGETHER, THEREFORE I BELIEVE THIS PAIR IS LAGGING COMPARED TO IS RELATIVES. AUDUSD COULD BE A GOOD POTENTIAL SHORT IN THE LONG RUN AFTER ITS CURRENT CONSOLIDATION.
by YungFinance