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EURCHF At Key Technical Level Prior to ECB MeetingThe Swiss franc has seen some action as traders move in and out of safe-haven assets, no matter what the Swiss National Bank implements (franc futures has a .82 correlation with gold). With the ECB hinting that more quantitative easing is possible ahead of the rate decision March 10, the SNB may feel obliged to intervene to stop any significant appreciation in the franc. Thomas Jordan, Governor of the SNB, has said that negative interest rates have their limit; so, probable line if action would be a direct FX intervention. Traders are not pricing in any significant change in monetary policy from the ECB, so that may cause the EURCHF to rebound from its oversold, intraday position. Price action is stagnating within a demand zone, and minor upside potential to 1.0935 and 1.0960 is seen leading into March. However, I don't foresee the SNB doing anything drastic (which may be highly dependent on the lengths the ECB is willing to go). I expect future near-term CHF strength, causing price action to test the bottom of the demand zone. If this breaks, expect the pair to trade lower to 1.0860. If the risk environment worsens, gold could trigger more safe-haven demand pushing EURCHF to 1.0830. Please feel free to comment and share charts! And follow me @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytrading.com oilpro.com Update status
by CommoditiesTrader
Look For Opportunity To Short GBPCHFWe will be looking for an opportunity to Short GBPCHF on a bounce. The trend has been to the downside since mid-November 2015. If the recent low set on 02/11/2016 holds and a bounce drives price up to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level in conjunction with the 25% or 50% Fibonacci time zone we could see a solid short setup. We will link research of a recent GBPCHF move which presented a solid short off the 38.2% Fibonacci price level and 25% Fibonacci time zone shortly. This recent move was timed perfectly, we may see another in the near future, some time around the first week of March. Time is just as important as price action! Again the low set on 02/11/2016 must hold in-order for this forecast to remain valid.
Short
by unique4x
EURCHF Forming A Solid ABCD PatternThis pair is forming a very solid ABCD pattern as point C was put in place very decisively. The chart is showing the ABCD pattern overlaid with a Fibonacci Extension. Our projection is for this pair to make a run towards the 61.8% to 76.4% Fib extensions but we wouldn't be surprised if it made a run to the 100% level as the pullback was shallow. Pullbacks that do not retrace the entire 61.8% show that buyers are eager to resume the uptrend. As you can see the C retracement was only 56.9%. As long as the bulls stay in the Euro camp our projection could be met but as we all know the Euro has been in a long-term bear trend. Set your stops just below point A, we will be willing to risk down to the 1.06900 level as our algorithm is calculating 90% odds of a run higher on the daily chart. www.unique4xpro.com
Long
by unique4x
3 Step Scalp MACD Trade for USDCHFOne to watch for a 3 Step Scalp MACD trade is USDCHF. We traded it nicely last nice from the short side and as you can see it came in more overnight. With the horrible wage growth reported from the U.S. the dollar could be in for some trouble throughout today. Don't be afraid to take a long scalp if the conditions present themselves, just be aware that sellers may have the upper hand on this Friday. 3 Step Scalp MACD trading strategy listed below: Bullish: 1) Look for a trend to develop to the upside in conjunction with a bullish MACD. 2) Wait for a close below the EMA in conjunction with a bullish MACD. 3) After a close back above the EMA in conjunction with a bullish MACD take a long position. Bearish: 1) Look for a trend to develop to the downside in conjunction with a bearish MACD. 2) Wait for a close above the EMA in conjunction with a bearish MACD. 3) After a close back below the EMA in conjunction with a bearish MACD take a short position. *Stops should be placed no more than the most recent swing high. **MACD = Standard settings or 20,40,9 which should give you more trades. ***EMA = 9 period to the close. ****If MACD stops trending and/or the lines have touched any possible trade is null and void.
Short
by unique4x
GBP/CHF LONG BIASAS THE GBP CONTINUES ITS BULLISH MOMENTUM ACROSS THE BOARD IT COULD PROVIDE A NICE LONG OPPORTUNITY ON THIS PAIR. WE HAVE MADE 2 HIGHER LOWS AND RECENTLY SNEAKED IN A HIGHER HIGH. ALTHOUGH WE WASNT ABLE TO GET A CLEAN BREAK ABOVE THAT RESISTANCE IT COULD BE A GOOD SIGN OF THINGS TO COME. I AM NOW MONITORING P.A CLOSELY FOR A LONG SETUP. I HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE AREA AROUND 1.4470 WHERE WE FIND THE 50% FIB LEVEL ALONG WITH THE ASCENDING TRENDLINE. IF PRICE HIT THIS ZONE WE COULD ALSO TAKE IT AS A RETEST OF THE DESCENDING TRENDLINE THAT WAS RECENTLY BROKEN MEANING SOME GREAT CONFLUENCES TO TAKE THE LONG IF WE GET THE RIGHT P.A. IF EVERYTHING LINES UP WE WILL BE LOOKING AT A POTENTIAL HIGHER HIGH TO BE MADE AT AROUND 1.4960. ONE TO WATCH HERE
Long
by UnknownUnicorn185710
A long term trade that will 100% pay off. GuaranteedAs Swiss franc is exposed to events in Europe (high correlation to EUR) plus negative interest rate that will likely increase, ie becoming more expensive to store funds in CHF, Swiss banks will likely become less and less of a safe haven as other currencies become more attractive or even perhaps Gold. Also, don't forget with new tax and bank secrecy laws, Switzerland is becoming less and less a destination for offshore funds. In any case, Switzerland has a manufacturing sector to protect and preventing the CHF to increase further will be a job for the SNB. On the other hands, the US economy is shaking off the winter blues and looks to increase rate in the next six months perhaps making it a destination for global funds as a carry trade.
Long
by maccabean
1
Is the Swiss Franc to Blame for Gold's Pullback?The Swiss franc is lower on the day amid speculation that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will intervene in the foreign exchange market in order to actively weaken the currency. As you can see by the comparison, gold tracks the Swissy rather closely. Interestingly enough, gold's all-time high of $1,923 ended at about the same time the SNB decided to peg their currency to the euro. When the peg was first introduced, the single-largest daily inflow in the GLD occurred but had been wound down throughout the last few years. Traders matched that inflow into the GLD when the SNB pulled the plug on the peg. However, I think the SNB is playing with fire. They have already taken a 60 billion CHF hit to their FX reserves due to the abrupt end of the euro peg. Furthermore, it became too expensive to keep the peg on the euro, so the SNB will likely hint at intervention as a means to keep traders from piling into it. This could work in the short-term, but these methods usually do not have lasting effects. With a balance sheet of almost 90 percent of GDP, the SNB's bluff will likely be called out in the long-run. The franc has been a "safe" haven for investors, whether the central bank likes it or not. If global turmoil continues to strengthen, I expect the franc, and presumably gold, to increase throughout the year. Keeping in mind, there is a 40 percent weekly appreciation that has to be digested. The correlation should be watched further.
S
by CommoditiesTrader
13
Gold Surges on ECB QE Rumors and Market TurmoilOn January 6, I noted how the price action technicals were beginning to favor gold (here). Since, gold has begun to rally with force on both a global growth slowdown and increasing market turmoil. Naysayers will continue to hate gold, but both fundamentals and technicals remain supportive. The surprising (maybe not so much) move by the Swiss National Bank to abandon the EURCHF floor, in order to front-run the ECB’s QE announcement, sent shock waves through the financial system. It took only two months to axe the floor, following the gold referendum, after the SNB was so passionate about doing “whatever it takes” to defend the floor. Price action surged above the 200-day EMA, which was pointed out as a secondary resistance level after overtaking the $1,240 key resistance level. Psychological resistance will be placed around $1,260, while price action has a chance to challenge the overwhelming downward trend created in March 2014. Gold could find this challenging, as the focal ascending channel intersects the downward trend line at $1,272. It also corresponds with price action resistance. If price action is rejected, look for profit taking to take gold down to the 200-day EMA, perhaps the $1,240 level to test support. RSI is leading into an overbought condition, so this level could find consolidation before the next leg up. However, if gold can over take it, I look for $1,295 to be the next key level of resistance, while $1,300 will act as a whole-number, psychological resistance traders seem to like. Above that, $1,314 per toz. is favorable. We have now had several bars of strong, bullish volume above the 20-day average, and the ADX momentum indicator is ticking upwards – supporting the current uptrend.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by CommoditiesTrader
31