Get started

France

EUR/USD gains ground despite French election shockerThe euro has started the week with gains and is trading at 1.0836 in the European session, up 0.33% on the day. EUR/USD is coming off its best week of the year, gaining 1.19%. France has been on a political roller over the past two weeks and the wild ride isn’t over yet. President Macron called a snap election in June after European parliamentary elections saw the far-right make strong gains. Macron gambled that frightened French voters would support his centrist coalition, but things didn't quite work out that way. France went to the polls twice in two weeks and each round of voting brought a stunning result. In the first round, Mary Le Pen’s far-right National Rally party won the most votes and seemed well on its way to becoming the largest party in parliament and perhaps even winning a majority. The second round brought its own surprise, as the left-wing alliance won the most seats, followed by Macron’s centrist alliance, with National Rally placing third. As the dust settles from Sunday’s vote, the political system is in gridlock, with no clear winner. The left-wing alliance fell short of a majority and Macron must now pick a prime minister who will be tasked with forming a government. This could mean a minority government or an unwieldy coalition, either which could usher in a period of instability. Despite the political uncertainty, the financial markets are steady, likely in a sign of relief that fears of a Le Pen majority did not materialize. The French stock market is steady on Monday and the euro has posted gains. It has been a good start to the week, but investors will be keeping close tabs on the fallout from France’s remarkable election. There is support at 1.0797 and 1.0752 1.0884 and 1.0929 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
French election shock: What will FX markets say? France is on the brink of a hung parliament, with the left-wing coalition capturing the most seats in a stunning upset over Marine Le Pen’s National Rally. Obviously, the forex markets are closed on the weekend. So will be interesting to see the reaction to these shock election results in France on the EUR/USD and EUR/GBP when the market opens. Regardless of whether the market thinks this turn of events is good for France or the Eurozone as a whole, this might be trumped by its dislike of surprises. The left-wing alliance, projected to win between 180 and 215 seats in the 577-seat National Assembly, outpaced President Macron’s liberal bloc, which is forecast to secure 150-180 seats. The far-right National Rally, led by Le Pen, and its allies are anticipated to hold 120-150 seats. Le Pen's National Rally led in the first round of voting last week and aimed to achieve a historic majority. However, strategic voting and alliances among left-wing parties have thwarted her efforts. Le Pen’s ties to Russia, including past opposition to EU sanctions, might have also harmed her campaign. Over the weekend, Le Pen had vowed to cancel permission for Kyiv to use French-supplied long-range weapons against targets in Russia.
by BlackBull_Markets
Euro eyes French vote after pound's rally Euro eyes French vote after pound's rally The British pound surged above $1.276 on Thursday, reaching its highest level in three weeks, as voters across the United Kingdon headed to the polls for parliamentary elections. The Labour Party, currently leading in the polls, appears poised to unseat Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's Conservative Party. Some projections suggest Labour could secure a majority, marking their first general election victory since 2005. But, perhaps the more interesting trade is in the euro in reaction to the second round of voting in France scheduled for over the weekend on 7 July. In a strategic move to prevent the far-right from gaining an absolute majority in the National Assembly, the left-wing coalition known as the New Popular Front (NFP) has announced it will withdraw its candidates in 200 districts where they finished third, lending support to stronger candidates opposing the National Rally (RN). Forecasts now indicate the RN and its allies are likely to win between 190 and 220 seats, falling short of the 289 needed for an absolute majority. Prior to these withdrawals, polls had estimated the RN could secure between 250 and 300 seats. In the forex market, a bullish push could see the euro retesting the previous high around 1.0850, with a potential challenge to the 1.0900 psychological level switching the broader outlook to bullish. Conversely, a drop below the 200 SMA may find immediate support at 1.0775, with further support at the 50 and 100 SMA levels around 1.0733.
by BlackBull_Markets
EUR/USD rises despite France’s vote for the rightThe euro has started the week with strong gains. EUR/USD is trading at 1.0756 in the European session, up 0.41% on the day at the time of writing. The euro is at its highest level since June 14. France went to the polls on Sunday, with voter turnout at a four-decade high. The vote was a stinging rebuke for French President Emmanuel Macron, whose Ensemble alliance came in a distant third in the three-way race. The big winner was the far-right, as Marie Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) party won 33% of the vote and will likely be the largest party in the next parliament. If the RN doesn’t win a majority, that could set the stage for a hung parliament and political uncertainty, which would not bode well for the French financial markets and the euro. Interestingly, the French markets and the euro are in positive territory on Monday, as investors appear relieved that the RN might miss out on a majority in parliament. The relief on investors’ faces today could be quickly erased, however, if the NR has a strong showing in the second round of voting, which takes place on July 7. Market focus will shift from France and focus on German inflation, which will be released later today. German CPI is expected to dip to 2.3% y/y in June, compared to 2.4% in May. Monthly, the market estimate stands at 0.2%, following 0.1% gain in May. Eurozone inflation follows on Tuesday with an estimate of 2.8% y/y in June, compared to 2.9% a month earlier. EUR/USD Technical EUR/USD is testing resistance at 1.0752. Above, there is resistance at 1.0790 1.0709 and 1.0671 are the next support lines
by OANDA
ECB speeches, Macron, and FOMC stir EUR/USD A high number of European Central Bank (ECB) officials are making public speeches in the 24 before the Fed rate decision this week Wednesday that could help or hinder the EUR/USD. Also, thrown in the mix now is French President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call for a snap local election after the results of the EU Parliament elections, adding to market uncertainty. The EURUSD has extended to a 5-week low. 1.0700 could be the next target for the bears as the price has now moved into a swing area between 1.0718 and 1.0750. Perhaps the most important speeches will come from Luis de Guindos (Vice-President of the ECB), Philip R. Lane (ECB Executive Board member), and Claudia Buch (ECB Supervisory Board). Import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to iCloud, Google, or Outlook to get alerts direct to your inbox, enabling you to plan your positions in advance. Last week, the EU became the fourth Western economy to reduce its lending rate, announcing progress in tackling inflation. It lowered its main interest rate from a record high of 4% to 3.75%. Katherine Neiss, chief European economist at Prudential Investment Management, expressed "reasonable confidence" that the ECB would further cut rates over the summer or autumn, potentially bringing EU rates to 3.5% or lower by year-end. Investors will be closely analyzing the upcoming ECB speeches for any hints that support this prediction.
by BlackBull_Markets
France40 to continue in the upward move?FRA40 - 24h expiry There is no clear indication that the upward move is coming to an end. Dips continue to attract buyers. Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels. A move through 7300 will confirm the bullish momentum. The measured move target is 7350. We look to Buy at 7240 (stop at 7196) Our profit targets will be 7350 and 7375 Resistance: 7300 / 7340 / 7350 Support: 7240 / 7200 / 7175 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:FR40EURLong
by OANDA
CAC to breakdown?FRA40 - 24h expiry - Doji-style candle has been posted at the high. Previous support is located at 7475. Previous resistance is located at 7525. Price action looks to be forming a top. Short-term momentum is bearish. A move through 7475 will confirm the bearish momentum. We look to Sell a break of 7479 (stop at 7545) Our profit targets will be 7325 and 7300 Resistance: 7525 / 7550 / 7600 Support: 7475 / 7400 / 7300 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:FR40EURShort
by OANDA
CAC to stall at previous support?FRA40 - 24h expiry - We look to Sell at 7200 (stop at 7300) Previous support located at 7050. Previous resistance located at 7150. Price action has stalled at good resistance levels and currently trades just below here (7150). Risk/Reward would be poor to call a sell from current levels. A move through 7050 will confirm the bearish momentum. Our profit targets will be 6950 and 6900 Resistance: 7150 / 7200 / 7300 Support: 7050 / 7000 / 6950 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:FR40EURShort
by OANDA
Will FR40 gains be capped at current resistance?FRA40 - Previous support located at 7000. Previous resistance located at 7150. Further downside is expected. Rallies continue to attract sellers. Risk/Reward would be poor to call a sell from current levels. A move through 7000 will confirm the bearish momentum. 24h expiry - We look to Sell at 7150 (stop at 7250) Our profit targets will be 6900 and 6850 Resistance: 7150 / 7200 / 7250 Support: 7000 / 6975 / 6900 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:FR40EURShort
by OANDA
1
CAC to see a temporary move higher?FRA40 - Intraday - We look to Sell at 7300 (stop at 7400) Previous support located at 7150. Previous resistance located at 7250. Price action looks to be forming a top. We expect a reversal in this move. Risk/Reward would be poor to call a sell from current levels. A move through 7150 will confirm the bearish momentum. Our profit targets will be 7100 and 7000 Resistance: 7300 / 7350 / 7400 Support: 7150 / 7100 / 7000 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:FR40EURShort
by OANDA