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Federal Reserve Economic Data

ridethepig | Flatten the CurveA paradigm shift followed the "It's time" chart more rigidly than even I expected. Apologetically we can give the official ✅ for those following the example of dogmatism from @ridethepig and can see clearly how far we have come: "It's Time" 📌 It can be said that the opening knee-jerk reaction from "The Great Lockdown" is over and we can begin to enjoy a return back to the old 'normality' (whatever that means). The unemployment rate has likely peaked here in this cycle, it is curious how this happens so often, the cycle nature of time and human behaviour allows us the ability to prove all kinds of flows and forecasts; but with certain classical variations, as in the present case. So, given the huge development in claims, it is reasonable to challenge the highs of what is undeniably a historic crash. What can one learn from the flows, to fully understand this question we will need to begin digging a lot deeper. Thanks as usual for keeping your support coming with likes, comments, charts, questions and etc!
FRED:CCSAShort
by ridethepig
Topical FRED and Yale Investor Confidence Data IndicatorsYou can copy this chart as your own to get the indicators. Required Reserves of Depository Institutions, in $ Billions FRED: fred.stlouisfed.org Announcement: www.federalreserve.gov FAQ: www.frbservices.org Explanation: This action eliminates the need for thousands of depository institutions to maintain balances in accounts at Reserve Banks to satisfy reserve requirements, thereby freeing up liquidity in the banking system to support lending to households and businesses. Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities FRED: fred.stlouisfed.org pages.uoregon.edu Monthly smoothed recession probabilities are calculated from a dynamic-factor Markov-switching (DFMS) model applied to four monthly coincident variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments, and real manufacturing and trade sales. Historically, three consecutive months of smoothed probabilities above 80% has been a reliable signal of the start of a new recession, while three consecutive months of smoothed probabilities below 20% has been a reliable signal of the start of a new expansion. Unemployment Rate FRED: fred.stlouisfed.org The unemployment rate represents the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. Labor force data are restricted to people 16 years of age and older, who currently reside in 1 of the 50 states or the District of Columbia, who do not reside in institutions (e.g., penal and mental facilities, homes for the aged), and who are not on active duty in the Armed Forces. U.S. Confidence Indices Yale: som.yale.edu Buy on Dips: The percent of the population expecting a rebound the next day should the market ever drop 3% in one day. Crash (this is somewhat confusing): The percent of the population who attach little probability to a stock market crash in the next six months. The Crash Confidence Index is the percentage of respondents who think that the probability is strictly less than 10% . Valuation: The percent of the population who think that the market is not too high. Assets: Securities Held Outright: U.S. Treasury Securities: Wednesday Level FRED: fred.stlouisfed.org The total face value of U.S. Treasury securities held by the Federal Reserve. Purchases or sales of U.S. Treasury securities by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) are made in the secondary market, or with various foreign official and international organizations that maintain accounts at the Federal Reserve. FRBNY's purchases or sales in the secondary market are conducted only through primary dealers. Assets: Other: Repurchase Agreements: Wednesday Level FRED: fred.stlouisfed.org Repurchase agreements reflect some of the Federal Reserve's temporary open market operations. Repurchase agreements are transactions in which securities are purchased from a primary dealer under an agreement to sell them back to the dealer on a specified date in the future. The difference between the purchase price and the repurchase price reflects an interest payment. The Federal Reserve may enter into repurchase agreements for up to 65 business days, but the typical maturity is between one and 14 days. Federal Reserve repurchase agreements supply reserve balances to the banking system for the length of the agreement. The Federal Reserve employs a naming convention for these transactions based on the perspective of the primary dealers: the dealers receive cash while the Federal Reserve receives the collateral.
DJ:DJI
by NeoButane
4
FRED - Fallen angel type Long from $3.27 to $.33FRED seems breaking out a downward channel formation. It also seems forming a fallen angel formation. It has huge Twiggs money accumulation. We think it will continue upward from here. * Trade Criteria * Date First Found- April 4, 2018 Pattern/Why- Downward channel breakout long. Fallen angel Entry Criteria- $3.27 Exit Criteria- $4.33 Stop Loss Criteria- N/A Indicator Notes- Strong Twiggs money flow accumulation Please check back for Trade updates. (Note: Trade update is little delayed here.)
FLong
by AcornWealthCorp
FRED - Fallen angel type long from $3.27 to $.33 FRED seems breaking out a downward channel formation. It also seems forming a fallen angel formation. It has huge Twiggs money accumulation. We think it will continue upward from here. * Trade Criteria * Date First Found- April 4, 2018 Pattern/Why- Downward channel breakout long. Fallen angel Entry Criteria- $3.27 Exit Criteria- $4.33 Stop Loss Criteria- N/A Indicator Notes- Strong Twiggs money flow accumulation Please check back for Trade updates. (Note: Trade update is little delayed here.)
FLong
by AcornWealthCorp
Can't stop deflationary pressures, but markets don't careI was inspired by a really poorly done analysis showing the current administration's (huge successes) policy on the markets and jobless claims. Basically making the claim about how much further we can still go with jobless claims. Also wanted to play with utilizing Quandl data within Tradingview. So, I took a step back (because they only published the last 5 years of data) and wanted to examine the past few cycles of the US economy. Basic thesis, the markets are driven long term by price accretion or inflation. Over many years the miracle of compounding takes over and we (prices, markets) begin to behave on log scales. So the moves in the markets (Dow/S&P) are not unusual when examined over longer periods of time, prices must naturally go up (if inflation exists) and on the sorter term linear view these tend to look exponential. Also, the current state of the jobs market is operating at about its peak levels with monthly jobless claims falling under 300K. We may be able to hangout in this region for another year to 18 months, but (on a longer time line) the end is near. Finally, the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies are what they are, but as can be seen by CPI Inflation (can be manipulated by the Government, by adjusting the components), a zero interest rate environment has been good for the markets and jobs, but have not done a darn thing for inflation (we are still deflating or stag-flating). Combine that with Europe's current state and we are likely to continue for a while longer. The longer term performance on the markets can be seen in the bottom chart. Plotted on a log scale, it is nicely seen "the miracle of compounding". This is the mechanism of inflation, but in the current environment (deflationary pressures) we may not be able to reach back to the mean line. Examining the relationships of market direction to inflation, most of the normal market gains are during periods of heathy inflation. Stagnant markets (on a log scale, but still meagerly positive slopes on a linear scale) are in healthy deflationary environments. "Market events" such as spikes/drops in the inflation rate highlight divergent events in the markets, with lagging interest rate responses by the Fed and corrections back to the mean line on the lower chart. So what to do: Stay the course...Keep picking winners in the short term, scaling into cash over the next year and get ready to buy in 2 to 3 years when an eventual correction comes. Could we see Dow 20,000 in 2015, yes not a stretch of the imagination. However, log scales are deceptively powerful. A 25% correction (easy to get in a recession) from 20,000 takes you to 15,000, and are barely noticeable on the bottom chart. This is a huge physiological blast for the average person (because numbers are "BBBIIIIGGG" and scary) and presents great opportunities. So if you see it coming (and can actually act...rather than freeze for a couple of months), rotate towards cash, or buy some puts, or go short for a few months. Laugh at the hysteria, relishing the buying opportunities. Chart Discussions Jobless claims: Appears that for the US, ~300000 jobless claims per month is about as strong as the economy can get. Will probably see this tick-up over the next couple of months will oil's drop. Impressive still considering population growth Interest rates: ...and even with 5yrs of easy money for large financial institutions, and trickles down to us little people via CC, mortgage, and loan interest rates, we still have a potential deflationary economy. Markets: I find the moves in the markets more benign when you look at them on a log scale. This is really due to the miracle of compounding (mainly driven by core inflation). Examined in this this light, the moves in the dow are still catching us up to the mean line. However, if you combine this with the potential deflation, might not make it back to the standard run rate.
FRED:CPIAUCSL
by kocurekc
Manufacturers' Nondefense -- Rolling 12m Percent Change StrongIn the top pane is this month's latest Manufacturer's New Orders: Nondefense Capital Goods, compared against the SPX, both on a Monthly timeframe. Plotted in the second pane is the rolling 12 month percent change in new orders. Note that this data is as of 6-14 but is the newest published data. This indicator is released by the Federal Reserve Board and is useful in determining the amount of CapEx spending companies are doing. CapEx is typified by capital intensive, long-lived goods, such as means of production, factories, or other large tangible goods. New orders can lead the business cycle since more investment in production leads to more production which leads to more demand. The reason why I found this chart interesting is similar in vein to the Industrial Production chart -- that capital spending, both on an absolute basis as well as on a YoY percentage change basis remain robust. The most recent YoY value of 11.84% is the highest reading since January 2012.
FRED:NEWORDERLong
by SPYderCrusher
Industrial Production -- Rolling 12 Month Percent Change StrongIn the top pane is this month's latest Industrial Production Index, compared against the SPY, both on a Monthly timeframe. Plotted in the second pane is the rolling 12 month percent change in industrial production. The IPI is an indicator prepared by the Federal Reserve Board using data from the Bureau of Labor and Statistics to measure the total output from several key industrial production industries: Manufacturing, Mining, Electricity, and Gas specifically. The reason why I found this chart interesting is twofold. One, although I would not use it as a rote timing indicator, the tendency for the past several decades is that high industrial production is reflected by positive market returns on a long-term timeframe. Two, and more topically, a popular meme in the financial media is that industrial production in America is weak, and this shows that not only is the absolute level of output making a new high, but the rate of change YoY is also accelerating over prior months. The most recent YoY value of 6.077% is the highest reading since February 2011.
FRED:INDPROLong
by SPYderCrusher
3