US02Y: BOND MELTDOWN / 4.00% CROSS / MACD CONVERGENCE / RSIDESCRIPTION: In the chart above I have provided a simple MACRO ANALYSIS on current bond market meltdown where the US02Y dropped nearly 25% within FIVE TRADING SESSIONS.
POINTS:
1. US02Y deviation is simple & marked at every 1% difference as bonds rise and fall within the same range percentage therefore it has a rubber band like price action relationship with it's lowest 1% points.
2. Overlapping Orange Line represents ES1! a US Market Future.
3. Dotted Green Lines represent continuous downward momentum in past Bear Markets (2002 & 2008).
4. Bubbles overlapping dotted green lines represent initial break of supporting bond percentage %.
IMO: In my opinion the most concerning factor to take into consideration when it comes to current bond positioning is the STEEP RISE IN PERCENTAGE especially when the overall US market momentum is tied to BOND PERCENTAGE during both RISES & FALLS & the STEEPER THE INCLINE THE STEEPER THE DECLINE can become.
MACD: Notice a complete meltdown of Bonds when MACD confirms convergence to MEDIAN & eventually breaks past median and falls into into negative territory.
RSI: Notice that unlike in other recessions RSI levels have seen more consistent exposure to MEDIAN of 50. But as of lately from a MACRO perspective that is not the case as we have seen current RSI levels linger around 70 or above in EXTREMELY OVERBOUGHT TERRITORY.
SCENARIO #1: In a very BEARISH scenario we come to see BONDS PERCENTAGE go through a complete free fall.
SCENARIO #2: In a less BEARISH scenario we come to see BONDS PERCENTAGE go through an extended consolidation phase with PERCENTAGE LINGERING ABOVE 4%.
FULL CHART LINK: www.tradingview.com
TVC:US02Y
Freefall
ANC : Possiblity as next Free fall coinANC showing a trend where its possible to breakdown further, the change in free fall is a possibility
trade only depending on your plan as this is not trading advice.
BTCUSD Clear Bearish Double Top has formed. SHORTS CONTINUEA BEAUTIFUL, CLASSICAL Double Top in BTCUSD - thsi is a STRONG Bearish formation has been completed on 4 H and 8 H time frames.
As the Markets of Nasdaq and S&P will continue the fall today - a VERY GOOD OPPORTUNITY for SHORTING bItcoin TODAY.
BITCOIN's freefall may start earlier than expected! Be Careful!When we look at the hourly chart it seems that the price of BTC returned from the resistance of downtrend started at 12300 USD. We can see the RSI side which also broke the uptrend. And than moving average line is crossing the bollinger middle band downwards. Last but not the least BTC is losing volume. Volume is the most important indicator on Bitcoin . These can be the indicators of starting downtrend. Now let's look at the 4 hours chart;
4 hours graph;
As we can see on 4 hours graphic, BTC is forming head&shoulders formation. And targets of this head&shoulders are 8.200 and 7.400
If the price starts to falls down towards 9.700 we can see very steep moves. People may panic sell and the movements will be steeper.
F#'k YOU... i mean 4Q ;p Purple arrows = resistance
Orange arrows = support
You can see where price has been respecting our zone as support and resistance... its that's time again, price is currently in our zone so we are expecting a bounce and some movement to the upside to end the week with a strong push... Lets make that money for a Saturday night out on the town ;p CHAMPAGNE ANYONE? haha
This trade....LONG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
AMZN - The uptrend is deadAs you can see from the chart, the entirety of the move from above 1200 (I would even argue above 800) was absurd. The new trend is, and continues to be DOWN.
I expect it will continue down until at least 1000.
It will be re-evaluate there to see if it will remain in the decade-long positive trend, or if it will be more in line with the 20 year trend (target in that case will be ~500).
Anyone who remains long will need to explain how AMZN will top 2100. I'm not saying it's impossible, but I just don't see any catalyst for topping 2100, and I therefore expect 2100 to be the long-term top.
The only open question I see is how steep the downward trend will be.
We can easily see some sideways action (if the markets remain positive and no negative news) between 1310 and 1740, OR we can see a steep drop (lots of catalysts out there too, the trade wars, regulations, the Justice Department splitting them up, etc).
Tread carefully.
BTC Update! Game of patience!Hello fellow traders.
Yesterday I discussed leaning slightly on the bearish side after a reversal candlestick on the 4 hour chart that I mostly follow for trading. A few hours later we saw the follow through with the bears crushing the bulls yet again.
Here we go again wiht this being a game of patience. I am happy sitting on my hands and waiting for the bulls to prove themselves before re-entering any type of position. Our low today was $4863 and as I type this, looks like bears are about to try for another leg lower. Remember, watch for trend changes. I had given the bulls some small hope with their higher low and higher high even tho that was also the reversal candlestick which red flagged me personally as bulls bring unlikely to get another higher low and then higher high again to show the shift in trend.
Currently its just a free fall. Don't catch falling knives. Don't try and time bottoms. Be willing to give up some reward and minimize your risk by waiting for confirmations. BTC can't even get a 15 minute chart to give higher lows and higher highs. Once I see that occur, I look at hourly to see if it can do the same, and then to the 4 hour. You can also use the EMAs for resistance points as bears love to pile in when BTC re-approaches these EMAs.
Stay patient during markets like this.
Just My 2 Sats!
BTCUSD free fall or rebound?In my opinion there are two possibilities right now:
1st) 7871 cant handle the pressure and will give up so the market can fall down to the 6k area again. If the market will rebound there we may see a bottoming.
2nd) the market rebounds at the 7871 area and makes a higher high with the 12968 zone and starts a new uptrend
Interesting fact: the two times where the market tried to hit the 12k area are exactly in between the 50% Fibo from the previous long downtrend!
In my opinion 7871 will get broken and the market will fall down to the 6k area again.
Complex BTCUSD Technical Analysis 1.7 AND IM FREE ! FREE FALLIN!Traders Come on !!! Sing With ME!!!
AND IM FREE!!!!! FREE FALLIN!!!!!
I do hope that you've been listening to me regarding BTCUSD for the past few weeks....
I sincerely hope that none of you may be-loving Followers have been caught on this Fake Bullish Trend...
I Know Haters are going to hate me more than ever and put this on ME hahaha, I've received a crazy messagetelling me that I'm just an X and a Y and a Z (not to say the words)...
Sorry for being right on this.... I've been hated for weeks now and it's starting to pay!
BTC IS falling for his final 5th wave my friends! We will be hitting our target of 4700$ within a few hours/days. BTC Volume give's us a clear signal that It is A STRONG bearish trend.
We should be expecting a powerful bullish market right after hitting the Rock bottom of BTC. Some at coin will be a lot more profitable than BTC. If it's hard for you to see witch coin should you pick. You could always learn the basic of TA before investing in any coin, especially if you are following Free signal from MR.X
My personal opinion, I would never ever put my money into some else's hand! HO waits What? That's truth & that are the reason I've been dedicated my life to it now!
BTW Guys BTC song of the day: www.youtube.com
God, I love your support!
Cheers, Friends SEE YOU at the Bottom of Mr. Elliott the 5Th
Follow ME and I'll teach you what I do !
LEARNING is the key to success
How deep will Bitcoin crash?Bitcoin is still in free fall. No more support levels to stop or decelerate the loss of value. There is still no safe ground to identify.
I expect a temporary halt and a consolidation around the current level of 8900 USD per Bitcoin. In my opinion, this should be a good level for buying some Bitcoins for a short and risky ride upwards. However, during the last few weeks many of such short term opportunities reveald as bull traps.
UCAD MELTDOWN PREDICTED !!Amazing couple weeks for one of my all time favorite pairs. We have seen a huge 200 pip range for this pair for months directly under the weekly 50% Fib Retrace. In my last analysis posted I hinted that this was the first Lower High for the huge 1600 pip drop and we could see sellers take back the market from this range. 2 days later this came true with a meltdown of over 300 pips!
USDCAD has now hit 1.250 area which is a huge area of resistance/support for this pair looking back through its history. I want to see a pullback from this price but currently do not see any seller exhaustion wicks. Do not get caught in any countertrends for this pair unless your confluence more then lines up because pips move quick on this pair. I am now looking for a re entry from a 4 hour retrace & will update pair throughout this month for entry/major moves.
LETS GOOOOO BABBBBBYYYYYY!!!!!!!
DXY: BITCOIN BTCUSD Potential weekend hedge for a falling DollarDXY: Dollar index and Bitcoin: The Dollar has closed for the weekend on its lows and below critical supports and will get hit again hard on Monday. It should fall a further 1.7% from here over the coming week or two. But there is one potential way to hedge this situation: it depends on Bitcoin breaking above 2460. If it does it should be worth following this weekend. Please see Bitcoin comment for more details
S&P 500 Push It Real Good!The S&P 500 is starting to look pretty dismal on the longterm daily chart, despite the recent relief rally. Following the curves, price is on track to go into panicked free fall sometime in June or July. But as is the chaotic nature of the seneca cliff, It could fall a lot sooner than that. The exquisite head & shoulders top that forms the multi year crest of this price pattern has a technical target of 1530. But H&S reversals are known to kick off much more aggressive bear or bull markets than their technicals elude to; Especially when they have developed over such a considerable time frame like this one.
USDJPY 5 March 2015As we can see the retracement for USDJPY a bit high. Now testing resistant, and possibly will break the resistance to test the higher key at 120.045+- before clearly make a free fall to first intraday TP at 119.345
After reaching 119.345 there will be 2 option. A bit of retracement or break and fall down to 118.750 to the lowest key support level.
At now, we need to determine clearly the level to sell to evade high negative float. Wait for candlestick and price action before proceeding to short.
My previous analysis for USDJPY is for the swing trader, they can swing more down there.. See you down there!
USDJPY, SHORT, CONFIRM!