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Frenchelection

Euro Rises After French Election; Yen Struggles Near 38-Year LowThe euro gained on Monday after France's snap election put the far-right in the lead, albeit with a smaller margin than expected. Marine Le Pen's National Rally performed worse than anticipated, easing fears of expansionary fiscal policies. The euro rose 0.4% to $1.0756, while the yen struggled near a 38-year low. The dollar index fell as U.S. inflation data bolstered expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut. Other currencies, including sterling and the New Zealand dollar, saw modest gains.
Long
by signalmastermind
Brace for NFP, ECB Forum, and two major elections This week is set to be a pivotal one for global markets, with significant economic and political events on both sides of the Atlantic. In the United States, the spotlight will be on nonfarm payrolls at the end of the week, with the economy expected to have added 180,000 jobs in June. This would mark a slowdown from the 272,000 jobs added in May and signal a cooling of the labor market. Across the Atlantic, political developments in France and the United Kingdom are likely to dominate market movements. France's Parliamentary Elections: France held the first round of its parliamentary elections on Sunday. The far-right National Rally party, led by Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, has surged to first place, securing 33.5% of votes according to recent polls. The second round of voting is scheduled for July 7. The dissolution of the National Assembly by President Emmanuel Macron earlier this month has already caused volatility in French stocks. However, some see this as a buying opportunity. Eden Bradfield of BlackBull Research commented, "Our preference list includes Kering, LVMH, Richemont, Brunello, and Hermes at the right price." Adding to the busy week, the European Central Bank (ECB) will host its annual forum in Sintra from Monday to Wednesday. The event will gather central bank governors, including Jerome Powell of the U.S. Federal Reserve, Roberto Campos Neto of the Brazilian Central Bank, Andrew Bailey of the Bank of England, and Christine Lagarde of the ECB. On the economic front, Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports for the Eurozone and Germany are due this week. These reports are anticipated to show a slight easing in inflation, which will be closely monitored by investors and policymakers alike. UK General Elections: In the United Kingdom, a major political shift is anticipated on July 4. Polls suggest a landslide victory for Keir Starmer’s Labour Party and a major defeat for Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives, who have been in power for 14 years. For the exact date and time of these major economic events, import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to receive alerts directly in your email inbox.
by BlackBull_Markets
EUR/CHF: Navigating SNB Cut and French Election DynamicsHey Traders, In today's trading session, we are closely observing the EUR/CHF pair for a potential selling opportunity around the 0.95500 zone. This level is identified as a key support and resistance area, aligning with the ongoing downtrend. The pair is currently in a corrective phase, approaching the trend line near the 0.95500 level. Recent Developments: Swiss National Bank (SNB) Policy Adjustment: Yesterday, the SNB implemented a 25 basis points rate cut. This move typically signals a dovish monetary stance, which might initially weaken the Swiss Franc. French Elections: As we approach the French elections, demand for the Swiss Franc is anticipated to remain robust. Political uncertainty often drives investors towards safe-haven currencies like the CHF. Given these dynamics, we expect the recent SNB rate cut's impact on the Swiss Franc to be temporary. The heightened demand for the Franc amid electoral uncertainty should bolster its strength, making the 0.95500 zone a critical level to watch for potential selling opportunities in the EUR/CHF pair. Best Regards, Joe
Short
by JoeChampion
2
A Healthy Retracement Provides Better Short Entries for EURUSDThe value of Euro dropped significantly this year due to geopolitical tension between Russia and Ukraine, which has led to an inflation in Europe. Furthermore, US raising the interest rate and a dovish statement made by the ECB during the last EU interest rate decision further provided bearish momentum for the Euro. EURUSD is now channeling in a clear downtrend, and we are only looking for sell opportunities from the pullback. This pair has dropped to a new low of 1.0760 area, formed a double bottom and broke out of its neckline, signaling the beginning of the retracement stage. The first area to watch is the upside of the short-term downtrend channel, which could be in the area of 1.0900 (approximately 150 pips of retracement). Second key area to watch is the level at the 1.0950 area (approximately 200 pips of retracement). From those levels, we will observe to see whether the price will consolidate and form a reversal pattern and then a breakout. Key fundamentals to watch for the Euro currency Due to the current geopolitical tension, Euro can be easily affected by fundamental news. This pair has been very volatile recently, and any good news from the war (unlikely but not impossible), could send this pair 100 pips to the upside. Also, we need to focus on ECB President Lagarde’s speech. If she hints any possible rate hike in the future, that could immediately provide an enormous bullish momentum for this pair. Lastly, we also need to focus on the French election. If Macron is declared a winner, we expect the result to favor the Euro. President Lagarde’s speech time: April 21st, 18:00; April 22nd, 14:00 Fed Chair Powell’s speech: April 21st, 16:00 & 18:00 French President Election 2nd Round Result: April 24, 2022 19:00 (UK time, GMT+1hour)
Short
by NicoBeau_Capital
CAC40 Rejoins Channel, Technicals Flash OverboughtWhile the CAC40 gave traders an almost perfect technical upward channel for January February and most of March, that channel was broken last week only to be somewhat regained over the past few sessions. It still does not know however if that channel support line is now resistance or still support. Moving averages all signal upward momentum while bull bear sentiment and RSI flash that this index is overbought. I'm not confident in equities right now. They all seem overbought and tend to be universally stagnant. Let's see how much further we can go though.
TVC:CAC40
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
EURUSD indicating uptrend to continue following French ElectionUsing the cross Gann Fans, the shorter term fan has been consistently holding the price uptrend within the 1/1-2/1 range while the longer term Fans continued and held the price downtrend within it's equivalent range of zone. RSI having risen above 50 and standing currently at 57 indicates that there is still a lot of room for pricing to continue upwards. The short term (blue) MACD line rising above the longer term (orange) is also showing momentum to be increasing as it heads to cross above the 0 line into a higher momentum levels. Both MACD and RSI trendlines increasing, along with overall price trendline also increasing, supports the signals being given off by these indicators. The Aroon indicator also supports the analysis as it is demonstrating the strength of the downtrend decreasing relative to the maxed out strength of the uptrend, thus indicating a continuation of an increase in uptrend strength-to-downtrend strength ratio. As price levels test out 50% retracement zone from2017 bottoming, it will also be testing out the effectiveness of the longer terms Gann Fanns 3/1-4/1 zone, and if price uptrend is to continue then this zone indicates that it will be uptrending at a decelerating rate.
Long
by Intermarketics
Late entry? Don´t get caught on a potentially 3% falling marketDo you consider yourself a conservative trader who requires a lot of confirmation before entering? Pay attention to not enter to late! Often, waiting for too much confirmation is like attending to an all you can eat lunch at 14h30. You pay full price but there is almost nothing left to eat. This is such a case. Those traders who position themselves ahead of future price action generated profit already on the first round of french elections and will continue (potentially) on the second round. Those conservative traders who wait for the result of the elections may go long EUR after Macron´s win (hopefully he will!!) and then Euro falls because the french elections pushed it right into a BatPattern on the weekly chart and there traders will close their long position with a loss. This BatPattern is of course no guarantee for a downtrend in the Euro but those who are trading BatPatterns, especially on EURUSD know that the chances are way above 60% of reaching a 38.2% retracement (here almost 3% down movement). What I am not saying is that being conservative or having a conservative entry approach is wrong. Instead I want new traders who are thinking about conservative entires to consider how much of the directional potential is already gone.
Short
by LorbeerInv
$EURUSD | Bullish Targets Defined | Predictive/Forecasting ModelHello Traders, There is a lot of action going on right now around Euro because of the French elections. Taking a purely technical look at EURUSD, the Predictive/Forecasting model has defined the following BULLISH targets. Very High Probability - 1.10444 High Probability - 1.11140 Low/Medium Probability - 1.12039 Highlighted in faint grey is a background geometry that I'd pay attention to through the corner of my eye. However, it has not posed any significant pull on the price as of yet. For those that are not familiar with the Predictive/Forecasting Model, it is the method taught by David Alcindor, known as "4xForecaster." I was fortunate enough to be one of the few students to take his course and learn the "magic" behind the very powerful model. For historical reference, the Predictive/Forecasting Model was used during the American Elections as well. I have linked the ideas below. Best, Chartistry
by GWaves
3
EURUSD Major Turning Point Within Daily and Weekly ChannelOver the last 3 years EURUSD has been "dancing within a massive consolidation wedge that have become more of a channel on the Weekly chart. After some recent analysis I noticed that a major gap in the market has yet to be filled. This gap however is at a retest of previous major structure levels, as well as at the top boundary for an ascending channel on the daily time frame. I believe that the volatility from upcoming events will push EURUSD down to fill the gap, but may also continue further to retest the lower channel boundaries.
Short
by cheminacci
Gap Still Needs To Be Filled on EURUSDWe recently had a major gap in the markets after the first rounds of the French Election process. On EURUSD the pair gapped up nearly 200 pips. Price came down quite a bit over the last week, BUT the gap hasn't been filled yet. The market doesn't like holes, and it doesn't like uncertainty. Euro's been consolidating within a 100 pip range, but I believe that the next round of French elections will trigger a drop in EURUSD, filling the gap. This trade has a great risk reward ratio, and comes after multiple retests of the highs. Entry at 1.0910. Stops above 1.0950. Targets at 1.0850's, 1.0775, and 1.0730.
Short
by cheminacci
3