BTCUSD: Bitcoin Friday Update and Trade PointsBTCUSD: Bitcoin Friday Update and Trade Points
Bitcoin was expected to push higher during a long, slow but
overall positive day yesterday - it was certainly long and slow
but it didn't push much higher though.
Once it broke below 7480 it was meant to fall to 7401 at
lowest before bouncing away again to the upside.
In the event the subsequent low fell at 7415 before Bitcoin
began to rally again.
Since the low Bitcoin is now back retesting the high of
yesterday at 7599 on Coinbase.
It should meet profit taking from day traders here in the
nearterm and come back to 7550 and move sideways for a
while.
We've had 3 waves up in this counter-rally so far and each one
is smaller though similar to the one before it. This rally as
Europe opened is lame so far and lacking intent or any real
interest. It will need more buyers again from 7550 and off the
lower parallel at worst to stay positive today from here. Even
if it can manage this there is the worry that there's not much
upside potential left in what would be a 4th and final wave
upwards. It needs a big green impulse candle to emerge on a
break above 7600 to change that view.
Yesterday it was Ok to buy the dip - today is less certain.
The only weapon the bulls look to have left in their armoury is
the potential for a sketchy RHS pattern to complete with a
break above 7600 on a volume spike.
Despite the resistance at 7638-7660 if this RHS is to have a
chance of working out it should rally towards 7660 at first
and then come back to test the neck-line at 7600 again. It
must bounce away to the upside again from this point with
more volume arriving to help it on its way.
So if we see 7600 broken to the upside it's quite high risk
following long - use a stop 20 to 30 points lower and if this
potential break then lacks volume coming in right behind it
don't hang about hoping, just close out again and look again
as it comes back to the neck-line. The market is too uncertain
for any gung-ho trades right now and there is resistance
mounting from 7638 and 7662. But the RHS' right shoulder is a
little better defined now after yesterday's price action and it
has 600 points of upside potential if it can complete as above
- so despite risks will be looking to trade it as the downside is
only 20-30 points or so. But it is risky nonetheless.
Returning to the downside initial support lies at 7550 followed
by 7480. Any break below 7480 will force a retest of
7415-7390 range which when broken below will flip Bitcoin
back into bear hands and trigger a short back to 7166 at a
minimum if not to 7068.
