Last Update From UsdCad 1D/4H HI traders
Before taking a sell position , let's price break down and pullback specified level .
I hope it was useful .
Friendlytrend
EUR/USD:beginning of an short term up trend 1.1500-1.1510 was a strong support that kept bear attack.
Our pair is above 20-MA. This could signalize about movement UP.
Core points are 1.1715 and 1.1800.
Have a good trading week.
5.15.2017 Trade Idea: SNAPIf you are interested in more of our trades, check out our profile and Tradingview Indicator @ChaoticTrader
$SHLD A Downside Opportunity You Don't Want To MissJust like many of the Texas Shale oil companies during the oil downturn with massive debt, Sears is what we're calling "Walking Dead" of the retail industry. The recent rally of price has likely come from many of the shorts closing their positions at large profits, and the huge drop has come from professional and retail traders alike identifying an opportunity to ride the price downward.
This stock is the definition of high risk on either side, so the best play is a long term option spread; enter the December strikes.
If you missed the last week's signal, then have no fear. As of now, if you were to sell the December $11/12 call spread, you have a 70% chance of making 30% Return on Investment/Risk (ROI/ROR) for 8 months of waiting. That's pretty good odds and not a bad return for less than a year's work.
Check out more from our homepage...#StayFriendly
Wynn Resorts (WYNN) Trade Idea 4.25.2017With Wynn Resorts (WYNN) continuing a relatively strong uptrend its bullish reversal move on 2/27/2017, the ticker pulled back almost to a closeout point at its middle offset moving average.
But opportunity struck today with the only open risk remaining on earnings. The stock pulled a large momentum move as we scanned following our loss on Netflix (NFLX). We liked the less than $4 risk for the stock and were willing to take the gap risk on earnings giving us an overall proprietary rating of MODERATE based upon price to stop-loss, institutional sentiment, and the projections for the quarter. The main risk that has caused WYNN to be quite the volatile stock in the past couple of years is its Macau operation and the controversy that has since simmered.
We actually like Wynn for a long term investment due to the healthy dividend it pays and the constant purchases of stock by Steve Wynn himself since the company went public.
See more from our link on our Profile page
$NFLX SIGNAL 4/19Today's was a Netflix ($NFLX) trade. Check out our profile link to read more.
Synopsis:
Netflix (NFLX) has had a really strong uptrend run since the election and has gained a massive percent since their last earnings call. Unfortunately, the most recent quarterly earnings caused a clearly evident swing in emotions of traders, because the price crashed almost 1% only to rally back up in the after-hours from the reporting period.
So what is the hubbub all about? Well, Netflix is without a doubt a power-player in the tech/entertainment industry, but the competitive landscape is becoming fierce, with the likes of Amazon (AMZN) studios producing a hit winning accolades as well as the traditional box-office Hollywood entertainment market.
One can gather a lot of investing-intel from an earnings release, and how upper management handles the call. Reed Hastings definitely had a “spin” on this release, urging analysts to focus on “long term” subscriber growth due to the hiccup this previous quarter. For us, this is a fundamental trigger to a stock price downswing, especially on the negative cash-flow expenditures the company is about to undertake for the next couple of years to acquire content. Since those costs are going nowhere but up, this is another negative trigger set to send the stock downward.
As far as the stock is concerned, we hardly ever go short and prefer selling a spread or buying a put option. For NFLX, this is no different. If you’re more risk tolerant, then the plain put buy works. If you want to play the “time-card”, and earn premium, then a skip-strike butterfly or vertical spread works as well.
AAPL Set Up For Short Spread EntryUtilizing our system, AAPL currently has ~76% chance of a trend reversal based upon 3 years worth of price data. Therefore, with a $2 risk to set up for a counter trend entry, AAPL may be ripe for a $145/$146 Credit Spread.
This sets a max profit of 53% ROR/ROI. Stop loss is above the reversal bar on market close.
Implied volatility is increasing due to earnings being just around the corner, so we've looked to sell the April 28 expiration for a decent risk/reward. The one word of caution on this trade though is earnings, as it can be a double-edged sword in the game of trading AAPL. If price does indeed drive downward to begin a potentially strong down-move, IV will drop and we'll close the trade if any bullish reversals show in order to maintain our strong position.
Why The Market Is Due to Crash in 2017 or 2018Those who do not learn from history are bound to repeat it. To us, 2017 is starting to look more and more like 1999-2001, with some B.S. from 2007 sprinkled in. Our evidence to support the argument is pretty substantial, but the only weakness lies in how long the music can continue to play. We don’t like to make predictions of stocks or market direction in-general, but when something smells like a turd, it’s usually a turd.
Our first point: Margin debt amounts are higher than they’ve ever been in history. Okay, so what’s the trigger? A short term consolidation. As in musical chairs, those buying into the market while it’s running are going to come out on the plus side, and man has it run since December. But what happens when news such as the potential for hiccups in conservative policy cause a halt to the speculative run that’s happened while Trump has been in office? The music stops. As a retail investor and trader, I can account personally for this, as margin is needed for your average investor who makes <$100,000 per year to buy into index funds like SPY when they’re over $200 per share. Even more so, who wouldn’t want to leverage themselves to buy into a higher risk equity or stock that has been in a >40% run, since December? The stock market is a rich man’s/woman’s game, and margin leverage is needed in order for traders to attempt to even make a dent in their account growth. When investment banks, commercials, news, or whatever are pitching “growth” securities, some of which trade at a price multiples times their revenue (ahem, Amazon (AMZN)), then the frenzy continues with financing until the music eventually stops. Then the proverbial #$#@ hits the fan.
Those who have bought on margin wind up closing their positions out of fear of losing more than they can afford, or worse, they wake up only to receive the margin call, not including their interest payments on the short term loan. Once that 2-3 day market consolidation happens, the market will likely tank back to where it was at least in December, if not further over the course of about a month due to fear.
Our second point: household debt has increased substantially, specifically with student loans and auto loans since 2007 and 2008 according to the Fed. Since the irresponsible banking sector’s sub-prime mortgage issuance up until the 2007 crisis, regulations forced the banks to seek other forms of interest revenue. Enter student loans and car loans. There’s a reason why car loan terms have increased from 4 years to almost 7 or 8 years since the mid-2000s. It’s easy money, and it’s tempting for the unassuming car buyer to want their monthly payment to be lower, not knowing they end up underwater at the end of the loan (not to mention the car likely being in terrible condition by the end of the 7 years). Not only are the banks responsible for this “free money” but also the auto companies themselves by allowing their lending arms to generate interest payments to their receivables as a hedge against lower sales figures.
As for student loans, it’s all in the numbers. The new President’s plan is a cap at 12.5% (an increase in 2.5%) of the borrower’s income, with debt forgiveness in 15 years with full payments. An average student loan is ~$10,000/year (in state) and ~$23,000/year (out of state). That’s $40,000 at a bare minimum at the end of the student’s enrollment. The average salary coming straight out of undergraduate programs is $50,000 a year, capped at $70,000-$80,000 for most jobs if the individual doesn’t have a Masters.
Read the rest of this article on our site from our Tradingview homepage.
AAPL Buy or Short Opportunity If You're Late to the PartyWe've been riding the Apple run-up train ever since late January, with arguably the cleanest uptrend since Summer 2015 that made your average weekly call option trader a boatload of cash. While we've been redesigning our site heavily due to customer feedback, we've been executing our trades on the side, and AAPL is no exception.
But be forewarned, no trend lasts forever, especially when viewing daily chart price action. AAPL's uptrend has held strong with very little sign of weakness due to the "Trump Trade", but our trailing stop is moving upward knowing we're due for a close at a rather substantial profit soon.
But you may ask "What if I want to buy AAPL now?". Well, I'd tell you to have patience. Why? Because, when utilizing our system we take into account supply/demand of an equity at a certain price, as according our chart, we've established one such support/resistance point at $140.27. If AAPL closes above that price point without any reversal signs given, we'd probably at least trade a bull option spread. I wouldn't buy the stock outright at that price simply because of AAPL's valuation being many times earnings, and the substantial downside risk and possible correction to come.
Even more to the downside, there's likely going to be a down-fractal support point formed at the $137.05 mark, and if the price corrects to the level or below, look to buy some deep ITM puts or trade a bearish skip-strike butterfly (Broken-Wing) Option Spread.
One other point to make is earnings happening next month. AAPL is one of the highest risk equities to trade during earnings, and from personal experience, can make or break your trade if you're just now coming in on a big move like this one from the past couple of months.
