Need a frost to get this market moving.... doubt it will happen this year. last year we had three severe frost scare days/weekend.
IMHO this market is where it is merely because of cautious buyers ahead of the season.
I see rangebound through July and if no frost happens more downward potential.
Technically speaking, the bull market appears to be over.
Frost
No frost in BrazilSeems like no frost in Brazil. It was a busy weeks last week and throughout the weekend with fears a frost could hit coffee areas. None has been confirmed and worst fears did not play out.
Once all of this is digested I expect some downside opportunities as the market goes back into trading technicals rather than emotions.
Quite oversold and we saw sell signals on RSI and Stochastik a while ago.
Also, the 5 hour chart will provide with a sell signal, which has been a superb indicator of short term price action (5-10 days).
I am short via 1x2 calendar put spreads, long the 135s in Q and short the 125s in U and various other like this. As we move lower, option vega will come in and provide some nice profits.
Also, selling the Sep (U16) contract provides with some good premium as this is considered the frost month.
Looking at futures spreads, they have been weak the past two trading sessions and also foreshadow price action.
Support at 134, then nothing until 125
