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Frs

Strifor || GBPUSD-Fed meetingPreferred direction: BUY Comment: The British currency , just like the euro , saves all the parameters of a long trade that we gave at the beginning of the week. The likely drawdown may be down to the level of 1.26000 , according to scenario №2 . However, scenario №1 is already active. It is preferable to consider the entry method "step-by-step", that is, stretch the grid to gain a medium-term long position up to the level of 1.25000 . It is unlikely that the price will go down there, but one needs to be ready for it too. This will be a very aggressive short-situation, but nevertheless, medium-term long will be relevant. For now, we save the target at the level of 1.28000 . But we also note the fact that this instrument has much higher growth prospects. Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us! Thank you for like and share your views!
Long
by Viktor_strifor_analyst
1
Strifor || EURUSD-Fed meetingPreferred direction: BUY Comment: The main event of the week will take place today, namely the Fed meeting and the decision on the interest rate. However, market participants will be most interested in the FOMC commentary and the press conference to find out the future prospects for US monetary policy. Regarding the EURUSD currency pair, we completely follow for the scenarios that we gave at the beginning of the week. According to both scenarios (details of each can be found on the chart), we expect the start of recovery in the area of 1.08000 - 1.08500 . It should be noted that this is a medium-term trading idea, according to which one can increase positions "step-by-step" with the target of growth at the levels of 1.09500 and 1.10000 . Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us! Thank you for like and share your views!
Long
by Viktor_strifor_analyst
1
Continue...The increase in rates will begin to realize itself closer to March. FRS does everything right. Taking into account the Fed's policy for 2023, macroeconomic factors and banking policy, 2023 can easily become the year of the red candle or the continuation of the downtrend. Let's now go deeper into the economy and see what is happening in it now. We all know that the credit policy of the USA and the EU for individuals. the price is very profitable. Interest rates were very low, and housing loans were even negative. All this led to individuals grow lending themselves to the ceiling of their salaries. Not the way I teach you – to calculate only from net income – namely from a salary on paper. Due to the increase in interest rates, % on loans begin to grow and payments from individuals grow with them. All this, at a distance, will lead to the fact that many people will have to start selling their property in order to pay off their debts to banks.
SP:SPXShort
by Bull_Short_TG
1
The threat, problems, and preferencesTurkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan removed Murat Cetinkaya as the central bank governor. In fact, this is an attempt to threaten the Central Bank of Turkey of independence, so the country's monetary policy is fully synchronized with the Government’s actions and objectives. Therefore crumbled. This is a wake-up call to the world. Recall, Trump continues to weigh heavily against the Federal Reserve System, he wants a cheaper US dollar and Tight Monetary Policy. As a result, the Fed is facing another dilemma. The fact is that RATE-CUTTING could be perceived as a “response” to Trump's pressure. So there is a risk that the Fed may postpone the rate reduction in order to show that their actions are completely independent. However, we consider this option unlikely. So our recommendation to sell the dollar on the intraday basis as well as mid-term position. The head of Russia’s State Statistics Service (Rosstat), who had been responsible for Russian statistics since 2009, was removed from his position however the Russian economy is still weak. PMI indices in Russia in June went below 50 (it means a decline in business activity). It is not about crossing the mark below 50, but at the rate at which the indicators are deteriorating. For example, back in May, the PMI index for the service sector was 52 (in June 49.7), and for the industrial sector - 51.5 (in June 49.2). So the rate at the end of June dropped sharply, updating the 2016 minimums. So, our recommendation to sell the ruble at any convenient opportunity. Our trading plans and ideas are as follows. We will continue to look for points for dollar sales. We work on gold without special preferences - buy is at overbought and sell at oversold price levels. USDJPY we will sell. Medium-term purchases of pound and euro are still attractive. We will sell the Russian ruble, as well as oil.
Short
by Trade24Fx
MACRO VIEW: IRX REFLECTS RATE HIKE EXPECTATIONSIRX, the 13-Week Treasury Bill yield has spiked above its relevant highs of 0.05 after the recent FOMC announcement, which hinted of a potential review of the Fed's Target Range for the Federal Funds Rate (now at 0-0.25%) This spike in prices indicates that at the moment the expectations for the rate range hike are present, as IRX is closely correlated to Federal Funds market (see Daily Effective Federal Funds rate at NY Fed website) Thus if IRX doesn't roll back below 0.05, until l the next Fed meeting, the rate range hike could be in the cards!
ILong
by Killy_Mel
MACRO VIEW: IRX HINTS NO SEPTEMBER RATE HIKE BY FEDIRX (13-week treasury bill index) failed to hold above relevant highs of 0.07% and reverted back to hear-zero levels. Due to its correlation to Effective Fed Funds rate, IRX will serve as an expectations indicator of upcoming federal reserve rate hike Most likely reason of the lack of expectations regarding the rate hike in September is another leg of downtrend in oil happening currently, which will again drive US inflation towards zero and away from the FED's 2% targat (one of 2 key conditions of the perspective rate hike)
IShort
by Killy_Mel