First Solar Stock Sinks After Price Target Cut by JefferiesFirst Solar (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:FSLR ), one of the top solar energy companies, took a significant hit on Thursday, with its stock plummeting nearly 10%. This sharp decline came after Jefferies, a prominent investment bank, lowered its price target for the company from $271 to $266, citing potential delays that could negatively impact the current quarter's earnings. The report, while maintaining a “buy” rating, has raised concerns about First Solar’s short-term profitability and execution amidst industry-wide challenges.
Why Did NASDAQ:FSLR Drop?
Jefferies’ revised forecast signals caution about First Solar’s ability to meet earnings expectations in the coming quarter. The analysts specifically pointed out potential delays in product volumes, which may lead to lower-than-anticipated earnings. They attributed this to several key factors:
1. Interconnection and Supply-Chain Issues: Utility-scale solar growth continues to face delays due to long interconnection queues, labor shortages, and supply-chain disruptions. These bottlenecks, already a persistent challenge in 2023, are expected to stretch into next year, pushing some projects from weeks to months.
2. Module Pricing Concerns: Uncertainty around module pricing due to anti-dumping and countervailing duty (AD/CVD) determinations could also have a negative impact. Additionally, the idea of selling excess capacity from India into the U.S. market raises questions about demand and profitability in the near term.
3. Broader Market Impact: Jefferies' report not only affected First Solar, but also sent ripples across the entire solar sector. Shares of other solar power giants like Enphase Energy ( NASDAQ:ENPH ) and SolarEdge Technologies ( NASDAQ:SEDG ) also saw declines of 6% and 5%, respectively. This points to broader concerns within the solar industry about growth rates and earnings amid macroeconomic headwinds.
Jefferies Still Bullish Long Term
Despite these challenges, Jefferies’ analysts remain optimistic about First Solar's long-term outlook. Their “buy” rating underscores confidence in the company’s ability to navigate these short-term obstacles and maintain its position as a market leader in solar energy. First Solar's focus on innovation, advanced technology, and strong demand for renewable energy should support its recovery once current delays are addressed.
Technical Outlook: Bearish Signs Ahead
The technical picture for First Solar (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:FSLR ) looks bleak in the short term. As of Thursday, the stock is down 9.29% and trading with a weak Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 32, indicating oversold conditions. Additionally, the daily price chart shows a bearish gap down pattern—a strong indication of continued downward momentum.
Further accentuating the bearish thesis is the stock’s position relative to key moving averages. First Solar (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:FSLR ) is currently trading below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, signaling potential downside risk. This aligns with the broader market sentiment, where traders have become cautious, awaiting more clarity on earnings and supply chain issues.
What to Expect Next for First Solar?
While the near-term outlook for First Solar (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:FSLR ) looks challenging, the company’s fundamentals remain solid for long-term investors. If the delays are resolved, First Solar could regain its footing.
In conclusion, while First Solar faces some serious short-term challenges, the long-term growth story in renewable energy remains intact. Investors should keep a close eye on the company’s performance in the coming months to gauge whether this recent decline is a buying opportunity or a sign of deeper trouble ahead.
FSLR
TAN - Invesco Solar ETFSimply go long, it's the future! If the USA doesn't want to increase this ETF by 20 or 30 or 40%, the world will end up on its last legs! NVDA won't save the planet!
ENPH
Enphase Energy, Inc. 10.11%
FSLR
First Solar, Inc. 8.64%
NXT
Nextracker Inc. 7.68%
RUN
Sunrun Inc. 7.10%
3800.HK
GCL Technology Holdings Limited 5.01%
0968.HK
Xinyi Solar Holdings Limited 4.45%
ECV.DE
Encavis AG 4.18%
HASI
HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital, Inc. 3.71%
SEDG
SolarEdge Technologies, Inc. 3.47%
NEOEN.PA
Neoen S.A. 3.35%
FSLR First Solar Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of FSLR First Solar prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 180usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2025-1-17,
for a premium of approximately $12.70.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
First Solar [FSLR] Unveils Major Research CentreFirst Solar Inc. has taken a significant step forward in the solar industry by launching one of the largest research centres in the world dedicated to developing new photovoltaic modules. Located in Ohio, USA, this expansive facility covers over 120,000 square meters and is designed to enhance First Solar’s capacity to innovate and lead in technology within the solar sector.
A key feature of the new R&D centre is its full-scale, high-tech production lines for manufacturing sizeable solar panel prototypes. This strategic setup allows for continuous innovation without disrupting the normal production processes at First Solar’s manufacturing plants. By enabling seamless integration of testing and production, First Solar aims to streamline the development of next-generation solar technologies.
Technical analysis of First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR)
Let us explore potential trading opportunities based on the current technical landscape of First Solar’s stock:
Timeframe : Daily (D1)
Current trend: the stock is currently in a global uptrend
Resistance level : 223.75 USD
Support level : 206.85 USD
Potential downtrend target : should a downtrend take hold, the potential downside target might be 170.00 USD
Short-term target : if the uptrend continues and the resistance at 223.75 USD is breached, a short-term target could be set at 268.00 USD
Medium-term target : with sustained upward momentum, the stock price could potentially rise to 305.00 USD
Investors and traders should closely monitor First Solar’s stock, especially given the new research facility’s potential to bolster the company’s position as a technology leader in the solar industry. This development not only underscores First Solar’s commitment to innovation but could also impact its market performance and investor sentiment significantly.
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Lean and Prep for WEEK 7.1.24I am a discretionary trader. This means there are some weeks in the year when I wait and watch what’s going on. From here, there are 3 potentials -
1-We keep ranging here and the stocks keep choppy. In this case, it is waste of premiums.
2-We drop. In this case it is better to wait for lower levels to find attractive setups.
3-We rally. If this happens, I am pretty sure something nice and attractive will show up on my radar which I will share.
Stay Frosty!
$TAN Solar Starting to Shine?AMEX:TAN ETF looks like it has started a nice move. I got in on this one May 9th as it broke above the downtrend line for the second time since the gap up May 3rd. It came close to stopping me out on May 21st, but it held above my stop. I was rewarded on May 22nd with a massive volume surge, due in part by the big move on $FSLR. It looks to me to be at an area that may prove to be resistance. I am expecting some consolidation here (just because I expect it, doesn’t mean it will happen). If it can consolidate a bit and then break above that area, I will look to add to this position. I have a two-thirds size now. I think it can run to the $54 area from here. All TBD.
The chart I am using is the All-In-One LevelUp tool available here on TV. Check it out.
Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
First Solar Surge in Quarterly Profit, Forecasts Higher SalesFirst Solar Inc., ( NASDAQ:FSLR ) has emerged from the shadows of adversity, swinging to a profit in the fourth quarter and unveiling bullish projections for sales in 2024 amidst surging demand for renewable energy solutions.
The Tempe, Arizona-based solar pioneer reported a net profit of $349 million, or $3.25 per share, for the quarter ending December 31st, marking a remarkable turnaround from the previous year's loss. Bolstered by resilient demand and favorable market conditions, First Solar's net sales in the fourth quarter soared by approximately 20% to $1.2 billion, underscoring the company's robust performance in a dynamic industry landscape.
CEO Mark Widmar exuded confidence in the company's trajectory, citing strong mid- to long-term demand for solar modules, particularly in the United States. Despite macro challenges such as global oversupply and pricing volatility, First Solar ( NASDAQ:FSLR ) remains steadfast in its commitment to delivering sustainable energy solutions that resonate with customers worldwide.
The company's optimistic outlook for 2024 further buoyed investor sentiment, with First Solar forecasting net sales in the range of $4.4 billion to $4.6 billion, outpacing analysts' expectations. Annual sales volumes are projected to reach between 15.6 gigawatts and 16.3 gigawatts, with net income anticipated to range between $13 to $14 per share.
A significant driver of profitability lies in the Section 45X manufacturing incentive, which offers substantial tax credits for domestically manufactured products in the United States. Analyst Pavel Molchanov emphasized the importance of this subsidy, noting that it accounts for two-thirds of First Solar's profitability, underlining the company's strategic positioning within the domestic market.
First Solar's ( NASDAQ:FSLR ) positive earnings report resonated with investors, sending its shares soaring by 4.5% after the bell. This uptick reflects market confidence in the company's ability to capitalize on growing demand for renewable energy solutions while navigating industry headwinds with agility and foresight.
First Solar ( NASDAQ:FSLR ) stands at the forefront of innovation, driving the transition towards a cleaner, greener future. With a robust pipeline of projects and a steadfast commitment to excellence, the company is poised to illuminate the path to profitability in the ever-evolving landscape of renewable energy.
Prophet Algo Picks - Jan 24,2024Prophet algo uses markov probabilities to get bullish and bearish probabilities for the day. Uses a custom machine learning algo which backtested gave a 75% win rate when trying to predict daily movements.
Definitions:
Positive day meaning : When the Closing price for the day is greater than the opening price
Negative day meaning : When the Closing price for the day is lower than the opening price
Markov model does not care about the intraday price movements, just the difference between opening and closing prices
If you would like to analyze intraday movements, use our technical tools, option chain and weekly stock forecasts to get further insights
NYSE:ABT
Category: Positive
Bullish Probability: 82.35%
Bearish Probability: 17.65%
NYSE:BALL
Category: Positive
Bullish Probability: 78.05%
Bearish Probability: 21.95%
NASDAQ:FITB
Category: Negative
Bullish Probability: 24.49%
Bearish Probability: 75.51%
NASDAQ:FSLR
Category: Negative
Bullish Probability: 26.67%
Bearish Probability: 73.33%
NYSE:GPC
Category: Positive
Bullish Probability: 76.67%
Bearish Probability: 23.33%
NYSE:PAYC
Category: Positive
Bullish Probability: 75.00%
Bearish Probability: 25.00%
NYSE:VZ
Category: Negative
Bullish Probability: 15.00%
Bearish Probability: 85.00%
NYSE:VFC
Category: Negative
Bullish Probability: 23.08%
Bearish Probability: 76.92%
The Invesco Solar Etf TAN based on the Global Solar Energy IndexThe Invesco Solar ETF is based on the MAC Global Solar Energy Index (Index). The Index is comprised of companies in the solar energy industry.
Wall Street investors have only short-sold the future of the planet! They have shorted all the players that could be a solution to climate change (personal opinion).
With the upcoming U.S. presidential elections, I expect that new financial promises will be put forward, and this ETF will regain strength.
TAN etf, ASSETS UNDER MANAGEMENT $1.32B
ICLN etf, ASSETS UNDER MANAGEMENT$2.54B
TAN: Enphase, First Solar, SolarEdge, Sunrun, GCL Tech, Xinyi, Hannon Armstrong, Array, ...
ICLN: First Solar, Vestas, Enphase, China Yangtze, Orste, EDP Portugal, SolarEdge, Suzlon, ...
Green Investing Gains MomentumSolar Stocks rally following Federal Reserve's decision to hold Interest rates steady.
Technical Analysis
NASDAQ:FSLR has been moving and is now finding some support near the $165 area. After experiencing a "Death Cross" on the 26th Sept, 2023 NASDAQ:FSLR has since shown signs of a resurgence with the stock surging as high as 6.57% as of the time of writing.
The clean energy sector has gone wild with solar stocks enjoying a massive rally after the U.S. Federal Reserve announced that it will keep short-term interest rates unchanged and forecast three cuts next year, a potentially very bullish outlook for 2024.
Interest rates have increased sharply over the past few years, going from about half a percentage point during the pandemic to more than 4% recently thanks to the Fed’s tapering program. However, a less hawkish Fed has seen rates reverse. The 10-year treasury yield hit a 16-year high of 4.98% in October but has pulled back to 3.91% currently.
Solar energy stocks have responded strongly because lower interest rates are likely to have a direct impact on volume and margins in 2024.
$TAN Up 17% in 2 Days!Who says you cannot make big returns on ETF's?
AMEX:TAN the Solar Sector ETF Is on fire. It looks like rotation back into the beaten-up sector. Names Like NASDAQ:FSLR and NASDAQ:ENPH up even more. Rather than take the risk on an individual name I have opened a ¼ sized position in this ETF. I will be looking to bring this up to a full-sized position on any consolidation.
This ETF has institutional accumulation volume going back over a month. It has regained all MAs except for the 40 Week MA in white. All shorter-term MA’s, including the 50 Day Moving Averages are turning up. My stop is set below yesterday’s low and the horizontal line of support / resistance.
Ideas not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
FSLR First Solar Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of FSLR First Solar prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 143usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2023-11-3,
for a premium of approximately $6.95.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
FSLR POP: What NEXT!?Here we are looking at FSLR on the Daily TF…
As you can see, FSLR is currently trading within the expanding channel to the upside. Currently, it’s in the middle of a powerful move of support to the upside. IF FSLR wants to continue its move to the upside, I would expect for it to find resistance at the upwards sloping line, which currently lays at about $248.
Prior to this move up, FSLR had attempted a breakdown of this structure, but powered through. This is a great example of why confirmation signals are so important in trading!
I will continue to monitor this structure, and provide timely updates as I see fit.
Cheers!
$TAN: Solar names primed for a move upIf the ETF crosses the $84.03 mark during next week a huge rally can take place, daily charts are already bullish for a few days, I got into a position in $FSLR, $ENPH and $RUN recently, but might add an ETF position in $TAN as well if the weekly signal outlined here triggers.
Note that price crossed over the entire post COVID low till today Volume Profile POC here, which is an interesting technical variable, as it becomes easier to trigger a longer term trend signal as well if it gains traction next.
Best of luck!
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.