Frontdoor (FTDR) AnalysisCompany Overview:
Frontdoor NASDAQ:FTDR is redefining home services, connecting homeowners with professional contractors for maintenance and repairs.
Key Catalysts:
Super App Strategy 📲
FTDR’s on-demand HVAC service is the first step toward a home services super app, integrating warranties and à la carte repairs to maximize customer lifetime value.
IoT data from home systems is an underappreciated asset, with potential predictive maintenance applications.
Compounding Revenue Growth 💰
FTDR’s record 77.7% retention rate creates a compounding effect.
Every 1% retention increase adds GETTEX:18M in high-margin revenue.
The AHS app aims to push retention above 80% by 2025, unlocking $50M in additional cash flow.
Shareholder Returns & Market Expansion 📈
$119M in share buybacks YTD, reducing shares 5-7% annually, boosting EPS.
The pending 2-10 acquisition strengthens FTDR’s structural warranty business, tapping into a SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:2B + market growing at 6% annually.
Investment Outlook:
Bullish Case: We are bullish on FTDR above $51.00-$52.00, supported by retention gains, share buybacks, and market expansion.
Upside Potential: Our price target is $90.00-$100.00, reflecting strong cash flow, strategic acquisitions, and scalable digital solutions.
📢 Frontdoor—Revolutionizing Home Services with AI, Data, and Innovation. #FTDR #HomeServices #SuperApp #StockMarket
FTDR
Frontdoor (NASDAQ: FTDR) Bullish PerformanceFrontdoor (FTDR) reported $524 million in revenue for the quarter ended September 2023, representing a year-over-year increase of 8.3%. EPS of $0.94 for the same period compares to $0.56 a year ago.
The reported revenue represents a surprise of +2.14% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $513.04 million. With the consensus EPS estimate being $0.54, the EPS surprise was +74.07%.
While investors scrutinize revenue and earnings changes year-over-year and how they compare with Wall Street expectations to determine their next move, some key metrics always offer a more accurate picture of a company's financial health.
Since these metrics play a crucial role in driving the top- and bottom-line numbers, comparing them with the year-ago numbers and what analysts estimated about them helps investors better project a stock's price performance.
Here is how Frontdoor performed in the just reported quarter in terms of the metrics most widely monitored and projected by Wall Street analysts:
a. Customer retention rate: 76.2% compared to the 76.2% average estimate based on two analysts.
b. Number of home service plans: 2.04 million compared to the 2.05 million average estimate based on two analysts.
c. Revenue by Customer Channel- Renewals: $406 million compared to the $408.27 million average estimate based on four analysts.
d. Revenue by Customer Channel- Other: $24 million compared to the $13.22 million average estimate based on four analysts.
e. Revenue by Customer Channel- Direct-to-consumer (First-Year): $54 million compared to the $55.30 million average estimate based on four analysts.
f. Revenue by Customer Channel- Real estate (First-Year): $40 million versus $38.41 million estimated by four analysts on average.