UK100 H4 | Rising into 61.8% Fibonacci resistanceUK100 is rising towards a swing-high resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 8,231.90 which is a swing-high resistance that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 8,260.00 which is a level that sits above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and an overlap resistance.
Take profit is at 8,168.78 which is a swing-low support that aligns close to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
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Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
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CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
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Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FTSE
FTSE UK100 Reaches Key Demand Area Amid Seasonal TrendsThe FTSE UK100 index has recently reached a crucial demand area, igniting traders' interest amid seasonality patterns observed over the past decade. Historically, this time of year tends to witness upward momentum in the index prices, making this a significant area for potential bullish moves. Given the historical context, many traders are closely monitoring developments as they assess whether the index will follow suit and initiate a rally.
From a fundamental perspective, the recent Commitment of Traders (COT) report provides a tantalizing glimpse into market dynamics. It reveals that while retail traders are predominantly bearish, "smart money"—the institutional investors—appear to be accumulating long positions. This divergence is notable; retail sentiment often serves as a contrarian indicator. With smart money stepping in at a demand zone, there is potential for a bullish reversal, which could support the index as it seeks to capitalize on favorable seasonal trends.
Moreover, the broader economic landscape remains conducive to this optimistic outlook. As the UK grapples with various macroeconomic factors, including inflation rates and monetary policy responses, investor sentiment has become increasingly nuanced. A stronger performance in the FTSE may be supported by sectors that typically thrive during this time, such as commodities and financial services, providing tailwinds for the index.
As traders look ahead, the focus on a bullish scenario is intensifying. The critical consideration is whether the FTSE UK100 can sustain momentum above the demand area, signaling a recovery phase that may align with both historical patterns and smart money positioning. If the index can maintain its footing and demonstrate strength in the coming sessions, it may very well affirm the bullish sentiment among those advocating for a market upturn.
In summary, the convergence of seasonal patterns, contrasting market sentiment as illustrated by the COT report, and the strong fundamental backdrop paints a compelling picture for the FTSE UK100. Traders are poised to explore opportunities in a potentially bullish scenario, keen to see if the index will follow historical tendencies and deliver a strong performance in the latter part of the year. As always, careful monitoring of market developments will be essential in navigating this promising but complex landscape.
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FTSE Bullish break-out taking place. Target 8650.Almost 2 months ago (August 30, see chart below) we called for a rejection of FTSE 100 (UK100) back to the Symmetrical Support Zone (SSZ), where our next buy entry would be:
As you can see, the price action duly delivered and the price has been gradually rising off the SSZ to the point where last week it broke above the Lower Highs trend-line. The 1W RSI is also about to make a bullish break-out above its own Channel Down.
We have seen this kind of pattern during the previous two Bullish Legs since late 2022. Every time they broke above the Resistance Zone, the price peaked around the 1.382 Fibonacci extension. As a resut, our new long-term Target is 8650.
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FTSE 100 Potentially topped. Strong pull-back incoming.Earlier this month (August 08, see chart below), we got the most optimal buy entry on FTSE 100 (UK100) that quickly hit the 8300 short-term Target, even earlier than we expected:
The price is now above the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Bearish Megaphone, a symmetrical pattern to May - August 2023. We expect this rally to top soon and then pull-back the same way to the symmetrical Support Zone, below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
Shorters can target its top at 8150 and then buy for 8500.
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UK100 H1 | Falling to pullback supportUK100 is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 8,187.81 which is a pullback support.
Stop loss is at 8,118.00 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support.
Take profit is at 8,301.72 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Elliott Wave Intraday Analysis: FTSE should Continue HigherShort Term Elliott Wave in FTSE suggests that the index has completed a bearish sequence from 5.15.2024 high. The decline made a zig zag Elliott Wave structure. Down from 5.15.2024 high, wave A ended at 8106.79 low. Rally in wave B ended at 8405.24 high with internal subdivision as a expanded flat structure. Up from wave A, wave ((a)) ended at 8279.75 and wave ((b)) ended at 8056.01. Wave ((c)) higher ended at 8405.24 which completed wave B in higher degree.
Then, FTSE turned lower in wave C with internal subdivision as an impulse structure. Down from wave B, wave ((i)) ended at 8158.03 low and wave ((ii)) ended slighly up at 8174.71 high. Wave ((iii)) lower ended at 7972.35 and wave ((iv)) ended at 8024.83 high. Final leg wave ((v)) ended at 7915.94 low which completed wave C and (4) in higher degree. The current rally is in progress expecting to continue higher as wave (5). Near term, we are calling an impulse structure as wave ((i)) from wave (4) low. This wave ((i)) should be completed very soon and we are expecting a retracement in 3, 7 or 11 swings as wave ((ii)) before resuming the rally. The view is valid as price action remains above 7915.94 low.
FTSE 3rd straight green day after the bottom.FTSE 100 (UK100) is having perhaps the most convincing bottom formation out of all major global indices as despite the selling pressure evident on each day, it is (so far) today on the 3rd straight green 1D candle since Monday's Low.
That Low came just a few points from touching not only the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) but also the Higher Lows Zone (started on October 27 2023). At the same time, the Bearish Megaphone since its All Time High (ATH), displays striking similarities with the April - August 2023 pattern.
In fact, this week's Low seems to be similar with the August 18 2023 Low. That initiated a rebound that almost touched the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, before another correction. Even the 1D RSI patterns are similar among the two fractals.
As a result, we turn bullish again on FTSE here, targeting 8300 (just below the 0.786 Fib).
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UK100 to find support at market price?UK100 - 24h expiry
Price action looks to be forming a bottom.
This is positive for short term sentiment and we look to set longs at good risk/reward levels for a further correction higher.
Dip buying offers good risk/reward.
We look for a temporary move lower.
Further upside is expected although we prefer to buy into dips close to the 8175 level.
We look to Buy at 8175 (stop at 8135)
Our profit targets will be 8275 and 8295
Resistance: 8480 / 8570 / 8720
Support: 8010 / 7870 / 7725
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The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
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FTSE on a 1-month correction. Is it over?Great display of compliance to technical dynamics by FTSE 100 (UK100) on our previous analysis (April 29, see chart below) as after hitting our 8350 Target it got rejected exactly at the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the long-term +2 year Channel Up:
The corrective pattern broke yesterday below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since April 19, which technically opens the way for a test of the next Support level, the Higher Lows Zone.
As you can see, this Zone has been providing Support (and the most optimal buy entry) since the January 17 Low. As a result, as long as the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) is holding, we will buy the next Higher Lows contact and target 8350 (Lower Highs projection similar to February 07 2024 and October 17 2023).
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Roaring 20's #FTSE100 to meaningfully outperform UK HOUSINGA BOLD prediction --- possibly to some people
But I stand by this chart as a roadmap where I see #UK equities outperforming
against the cash cow that has been UK #Housing
The how's and what's and why's are unimportant
But the key thing is for younger people struggling to get into UK housing
Investing in #Stocks #Technology Innovation #AI and #crypto
will reap HUGE dividends these next few years
I have talked about the roaring 20's echo mania bubble before
but as we see stocks indicies around the world breaking it only confirms my thesis!
EURO STOXX 50 Already at Target 1. On Way to over 11 thousand.Euro Stonks are raging higher
Euro zone growth has been terrible ever since the inception of the #EU and especially with the introduction of the common currency.
(common currency but uncommon debts)
Why are they going up now
Are they simply playing catch up
Is the ECB going to engage in FED like stimulus and PPT activities?
Currency devaluation
or actual economic goodtimes?
IDK
All I know all the European Bourses have major room to the upsides
#CAC
#DAX
#FTSE
and all the minor index's are positively positioned like I have been saying for quite some time now.
FTSE Target hit. Can it go even higher?FTSE100 (UK100) hit today our 8150 Target, which we set a month ago (March 20, see chart below):
Since last week the 1W candle closed (much) higher than the February 2023 Resistance, we see the pattern continuing its strong resemblance with the October 2022 - February 2023 Bullish Leg. The long-term pattern continues to be a Channel Up and its previous Bullish Leg topped just below the 1.382 Fibonacci extension, making its technical Higher High.
As a result, our Target is 8350 (just below the new 1.382 Fib extension). Note that if that Fib level breaks, we may even see accelerated growth as high as to complete +20% from the bottom.
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NIKE - Just Buy It!Nike tends to have corrective phases every now and then. We are now seeing one of the biggest corrections to date. We could be correcting in excess of 50% which would put us in a great position to buy Nike for the longer term.
Nike is the world's largest supplier of athletic shoes and apparel and a major manufacturer of sports equipment, with revenue in excess of US$46 billion in its fiscal year 2022.
In other words, its very unlikely that Nike will go bust and so any dips should be seen as a buying opportunity.
Our first point of interest is the structure level at 80. Ideally we break below that in accordance Elliott Wave Theory. We want to see wave C go below wave B.
Our ideal buy zone is the 60 level where we have the -27 fib extension. Once we come towards that region, we'll be looking for any bullish price action indicating a reversal and the start of the next massive bullish leg. If we go even lower than 60, then it's more of a reason to buy and load up!
We're looking for targets of atleast 200% as first targets. This trade is one to hold for the long term.
What do you guys think?
Goodluck and as always, trade safe@
FTSE100 - Breakout Alert 7,743Yesterday's close on the FTSE 100 was a really good indication that the 7,743 level will likely hold.
The index first breached above this level eight days ago and then quickly retraced below it. After trading below this level for a few days, we're back up above this level.
This signals buying pressure paused and has since resumed. Assuming this level holds on any further retracements, this will signal further trend potential.
FTSE making a sustainable rally after bullish break-out.This is an update to our analysis 3 months ago (December 18 2023, see chart below) where we called for a Resistance bullish break-out and buy on the next 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) contact:
Even though the pull-back dipped some more, the index still followed our projection on a rough scale. The long-term pattern remains a Channel Up but due to some relative readjustments because of that longer dip, we have to revise our target a little lower to 8150. That represents a +10.40% rise from the dip's lower point but still a 1.382 Fibonacci test (8350) is possible but in our updated view it will take longer to achieve.
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