🌐 FX MORNING MEETING: Let's prepare for the trading day June 30Hi traders, here is our FX Morning Meeting for June 30.
This market overview will help you find market opportunities where they actually exist ("Trades of the Day section"), based on a number of fundamental, intermarket, and sentiment signals.
Leave us a comment what you want to trade today!
🌐 MORNING MEETING - JUNE 30
🔴 GLOBAL MARKETS (main chart)
Morning traders, global markets remain in a cautious mode ahead of the US NFP release and holiday ("event risks").
This has supported safe havens so far and put selling pressure on risk assets.
Asian markets closed mixed/unchanged, while European markets entered a strong downtrend this morning.
🔴 US DOLLAR INDEX
Looking at the USDx, the currency traded higher today despite slightly lower US yields, likely fueled by risk-off flows. The 92.40 resistance remains a strong obstacle to the upside, but we could see additional strength in the currency during the day.
🔴 CURRENCY STRENGTH
Our currency strength index shows a typical risk-off pattern: JPY and USD are among the strongest (together with GBP), while CAD, AUD, and NZD are the weakest currencies so far.
🔴 ECONOMIC CALENDAR
The economic calendar is packed with reports today, although few of them will have market-moving potential.
China PMIs came in weaker than expected (negative for AUD).
EUR CPI Flash Estimate (an early reading of eurozone inflation) matched forecasts (1.9%).
Upcoming events to follow:
- US ADP NFP Change (expected 555k)
- US Chicago PMI (expected 70.2)
- US Pending Home Sales (an important leading indicator, expected -1.1%)
🔴 TRADES OF THE DAY (JUNE 30)
- We hold to our short AUD/USD and AUD/JPY trades (Take-Profit hit, remaining position at Breakeven)
- Today's trade setups are similar to yesterday's: Long safe-havens (USD, JPY) and short high-beta risk currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD).
FTSE
FTSE100 make its 3 out of 3 😍👌I've said it before and I'll say it again win rate doesn't mean shit.
But, here we have a nice win rate coupled with a nice risk to reward of 1:2 for this strategy.
Alert is set ready to share the next trade should I be online - so ensure you're following.
All trade entry details are shown on the chart.
We are only ever looking for TP3 on this strategy the green lines are the TP target.
As always the trade history can be seen below this trade idea too for full transparency.
This chart pattern and sequence of trades also ties in nice with one my previous educational posts comparing systematic trading v subjective trading.
There is no subjectivity with the idea being posted here. Just a proven back tested plan followed to the letter.
Here's the previous educational post mentioned-
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The stats for this pair are shown below too.
Thank you.
Darren.
Bulls need to defend 7125The FTSE100 nearly managed the 7225 resistance level yesterday before selling off and then the Fed drove markets down lower later in the day to a low of 7131 overnight. The bulls have fought back a bit though and we are at 7150 as I write this. The S&P managed to get back above 4200 as well and now needs to defend the 4190-4180 level. If it does so then a rise towards the 2h resistance at 4245-50 may well play out today, though we may well see a stutter here.
Initially on the FTSE 100 I am thinking that we get another dip down to the Fed driven low and also the key fib level at 7125 and at that point the bulls will need to step up. We also have the bottom of the 10 day Raff channel at 7118. A break of that will likely start to see that slide down to the next daily support at 7040 and below S3 for today which is at 7067.
If the bulls do defend the 7125 level and we start to see a bounce then I am expecting a rise towards, initially, the daily pivot at 7177. Above that then R1 at 7206, and we also then have the 7225 level back on the radar. That ties in with the key fib level for today at 7221 as well and a rise to this would all fit pretty well. Cable has moved below the 140 level again and continues to slide which would help the FTSE 100 to push up a bit (lots of FTSE100 companies earn in USD so that helps their revenue).
That said, the 7193 level is the Hull moving average on the 2h chart and therefore that's the next hurdle after the pivot and before R1 at 7206. The Raff channels remain heading up and the S&P500 is defending the bottom of the 10 day Raff currently at 4200.
Bear in mind that we are getting closer to the seasonal bearish period towards the end of June as well and after the rises this year we may well start to see more profit taking ahead of the summer.
Good luck today and lets see if the bulls can defend again.
UKX Hourly - Consolidating below overhead lateral resistance Battle lines have been drawn between 7040 and 7055. Trend & sideways consolidation favours a break higher... suspect we will have to wait until US open to get our break. Move higher likely to be quick and fast when (if) it does break higher.
UKX Hourly - Rejection off double resistanceIndex hit double resistance this morning (lateral and prior upward sloping) - and reversed. I am still holding my short positions initiated a couple of days ago. Today's high is the line in the sand for now & hopefully we go back to the bottom of the range at 6850.
UKX Hourly - Opens higher but still not bullishIndex opened higher and (unexpected to me) closed the gap at 7006. However - the picture is still not bullish. We have yet to see higher highs, and there is hidden bearish RSI divergence coming through. I am holding onto my shorts for now (albeit a little more uncomfortably than yesterday) & definitely not ready to add until we see further bearish developments.
UKX Hourly - Beautiful bounce BUT time for downtrend to resume Lovely bounce this morning following the RSI divergence identified. Looks a bit overdone here and I think we can see the downward trend resume. There is a gap around 7000 but will take time to see that filled I think. First a move to at least 6900
UKX Hourly - Worth a cheeky long Our bear flag played out beautifully and I don't think the selling has finished BUT it was a very quick move and we now have some RSI divergence. I have taken profit on my shorts and swung long looking for a bounce towards 6900. Against the trend so will be keeping my stops tights. NB only looking for a bounce here - can only hold longs if we see a trend change.
FTSE 100 - Intraday Buy Idea H4 - bullish false break
H1 - reversal pattern (divergence + convergence)
M15 - POTENTIAL bullish impulse.
Trading a potential setup is risky and much more aggressive than trading an actual setup. If you are not completely sure how to handle this one, better skip it or wait for the actual M15 structure (bullish impulse) to complete, than wait for the pullbacks before you look for buys.