FTSE
FTSE 100 - More room to grow than initially thought.Although the British FTSE100 looks terrible, the bulls are doing a good job to pump up the prices for another -+10%. Fibonacci retracement gives us a minimum C wave of 6520 points and a maximum C wave of almost 7000 points.
Because the index is still trapped in a smaller bear channel this tells us we need to stay slightly cautious though. Naturally, breaking the support line brings us to scenario 2 which predicts a lot more downside and possibly the continuation towards a lower low than the March bottom.
The RSI shows divergence and is therefor in favour with the bulls.
FTSE UK100 - IT WILL CRASH THIS WEEKHello all
DuncanForex here with a trade idea - with no advertising about anything so the post will stay active.
With the power move down during February 2020 (The AB Move) and then a slower retrace to the previous area of support which is now resistance.
The FTSE is going to hit circa 3200 and it starts today.
With the bearish pin bar currently being formed, this will create a very nice reversal pattern.
Both creating ultimately a CD move at around 3200
This isn't financial advice, however don't buy stocks, wait at least another 12 to 24 months and buy them when the FTSE is circa 3500
Stay safe and safe trading
Duncan
Elliott Wave View: FTSE Rally Likely to Find SellersElliott Wave View of FTSE suggests the Index ended the cycle from August 12 high as wave ((a)) at 5778.40 low. The subdivision of the decline unfolded as 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave Structure. Down from wave X high, wave (i) ended at 6036.13 low. Wave (ii) bounce unfolded as a flat correction and ended at 6173.48 high. Index then resumed lower in wave (iii), which ended at 5824.04 low. Afterwards, the bounce in wave (iv) ended at 5996.24 high. Finally, the push lower in wave (v) ended at 5778.40. This also ended wave ((a)) in higher degree.
Currently, Index is doing a bounce in wave ((b)) to correct the cycle from August 12 high. The bounce is unfolding as zigzag correction. Wave (a) ended at 5985.26 high and wave (b) pullback ended at 5868.87 low. Wave (c) is currently is progress and can do another marginal high before ending wave ((b)) in higher degree. The bounce has reached blue box area, which is 100-161.8% extension of wave (a)-(b) at 6075-6203. This area should see sellers appear for more downside or 3 waves pullback at least. While below 6298 high, bounce in 3,7 or 11 swings is expected to fail for more downside. The target to the downside for FTSE is the 100-161.8% extension area from June 8 high against August 12 high at 5483-5638.
FTSE Short / expecting strong bearsEven tought im a day day trader by nature... I like grabbing a swing trade here and there and this is one of them.
On the 4H I see a rising wedge, while on the daily a strong resistance of my fib levels and a decent rejection... further the Brexit talks are building a bearish sentiment.
Thats all from me folks.
GBPUSD ShortLiquidity hunt above blue zone, potential reaction off .5 fib and 4H highs seen in yellow.
Weekly view is bearish with fundamental Brexit news pushing GU down even further.
Potential for a quick snipe while it clears intra-day highs but wait for perfect entry watching reaction off the zones.
ridethepig | Selling the Footsie📌 Exchanging
A quick chart update here for today's flow which is essentially intended to cast some light over No-deal Brexit motives.
In all cases, losing market access is a bad idea in the short-term and particularly when done frantically. The apparently desirable opportunity to cause maximum damage from Downing Street with NDB is playing an important role in hijacking the flows into UK assets. Recommend avoiding a waste of energy and time attempting to defend portfolios with UK exposure and subsequently focusing elsewhere.
Just think back to our coverage of the Pound when buyers were eaten up. This time sellers of UK exposure wish to occupy the downside in Equities to deliver complete annihilation of the economy. With 6,000 holding sellers have time to prevent the recovery and can move lower into Wednesday. The correct path of least resistance is to the downside, a break below 5,775 will leave buyers no choice but to capitulate.
Thanks all for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
ridethepig | Positional Play in UK Equities 📌 UK Equities remain vulnerable with Brexit & Covid in play.
(Similar representation for those tracking the moves in S&P, NQ, DJIA and etc...)
(1) Firstly challenge the view that Rishi's stimulus produces an immediate effect and anything more than a spring mattress; the furlough scheme is incredibly expensive and weighing heavy despite being totally justified.
(2) Recognise the idea that we are in a dead-cat-bounce in Equities broadly and that the UK is particularly exposed to these corrections which is key in positional swings! With this said, I struggle to find positives in the UK and in doing so prevents exposure on the bid. In order to bring interest in UK Equities I would need to see the current lows swept and in the event of a no-deal Brexit then we can see as low as 3579.x.
(3) Keep to the strategy - avoid getting soft hands and closing out too early (out of fear of missing the rally) and try rather to operate with a sense of calm and tranquility.
(4) Aim for total destruction of UK assets in the coming year, sadly the individual mobility of almost every sector will be affected from the political suicide.
(5) Get used to observing the complacency and "sell on rallies"; do not let an emotional retail approach be decisive.
(6) Remember what is important for Positional swings ... we are not attacking, or even defending, but remaining nimble with the capital outflows, rather like meandering water.
Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Stocks Strategy is now here!We don't like standing still, so now I am keen to launch our strategy for stocks and indices.
Same ideas as our FX one and we have optimised settings for the below pairs.
There aren't meant to be shortcuts in this game, so we created them instead.
Please see the link to strategy script in related ideas too.
Thank you
Darren
Aston Martin cup and handleAston martin has experienced a hell of a crash from IPO, but you cant ignore the bullish potential here in my opinion. price has been in a squeezing formation since corona panic selling. the recent handle of the cup and handle acts as pullback after trendline breakout. price has maintained price at 55p and had 1.3m volume at Friday 4.25, 5 mins before close. a great long term and short term trade
ASTON MARTIN - REVERSAL ZONE? LONG-TERM INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITYAston Martin has been on a steep and vigorous decline since its IPO. Could Aston Martin turn things around from here and start reversing from current prices?
Aston Martin has recently announced involvement in F1 with Racing Point rebranded as Aston Martin. This could help in turning things around. Billionaire Lawrence Stroll has clear intentions to do so and has invested into the company with a £260mil injection. Toto Wolff, Mercedes F1 team-principal has also bought a stake in Aston Martin. This indicates a large force and urgency to turn the Aston Martin brand around, stabilise the business and clean the balance sheet.
With the share price being significantly devalued and oversold and the falling wedge breakout, it could be an opportunity to invest long and short-term. Short-term in the sense that the stock is highly volatile meaning returns (and losses) are seen much quicker.
However, as the business model and balance sheet, as of now, is very unappealing, unstable and risky, the clear down-trend might still be in play and the current equilibrium triangle pattern maybe a consolidation phase before breaking lower in continuation.
4 things can happen here:
Equilibrium breakout upwards and a reversal
Equilibrium breakout downwards and a continuation
Equilibrium breakout downwards and a double bottom
Delayed Range-bound consolidation sideways
VERDICT: The trades/investments above should be played in accordance with your style and risk-tolerance since, given the volatility of this stock, there is high risk. Since the chart is in a clear down-trend, the balance sheet isn't yet appealing and macro-economic factors such as covid, bull calls are more risky than bear so do your own due diligence and manage risk appropriately.
FTSE100 - UKX - Range Bound. FTSE100 Weighted by various components, as well as that there was news that few companies from FTSE100 index will be removed and replaced.
However, let's focus on technical aspects:
We are within a range bound area for a while! Could look at it like bullish flag or a wedge/Triangle pattern (Be careful of fake break out). Which ever way this index breaks - I have kept the key support and resistance areas lined up. Those will be the areas I will be looking into in-depth. I advise you to perhaps add alerts or feeling towards risky side at limit orders, so you won't miss the trade opportunity!
Just a trading idea, not a recommendation.
Best wishes,
Trade Journal
FTSE and all Indices - are they about the CRASHHello all
DuncanForex here with a trade idea - with no advertising about anything so the post will stay active.
With the power move down during February 2020 (The AB Move) and then a slower retrace to the previous area of support which is now resistance.
Two things will happen.
A) Price will retrace further to 7000 - everyone will think everything is ok, and buy stocks, and then it will plummet to around 3600
B) Or if 5800 is broken this week, then the FTSE is going to hit circa 3200
Both creating ultimately a CD move.
My view is that we need better divergence and there will be another leg higher first
However, don'f be fooled.
This isn't financial advice, however don't buy stocks, wait at least another 6 to 12 months and buy them when the FTSE is circa 3500
Stay safe and safe trading
Duncan
Decision time for FTSEThe British index is in a complete impasse due to concern over the second wave of viruses.
If the index can throw itself back into the green rising channel, things will get better for the kingdom, but if the falling channel is stronger it can retreat back to the lower horizontal support.
Only personal opinions and ideas. Does not Include Legal Investment advice...
Expanding Triangle - Bearish or Bullish?Is the FTSE in Wave C or E of an expanding triangle? Both patterns could be supported by a pull pack in the S&P500 to complete the triangle (Wave E) or a move to the downside if wave E have completed at around 6295.