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Why I am buying BTThanks for viewing, I'm not sure I have the time to include my full reasoning. - June 2020 reported both revenue and EBITDA down 7% yoy, which is certainly less of a decline than a lot of businesses - and way less than the drop in UK GDP overall. - Profitability at end of March 2020 was pretty good, and after reporting an interim dividend of ~4.7% (the interim dividend is 30% the size of the final dividend) they halted dividends for the 2020-2021 year. That is quite prudent, and the -7% revenue numbers reported months after that seems to suggest that the hit to profitability will not be too great. - It is quite hard to get a handle on where we are in the overall correction since 2015, but recently, the share price appears to have completed an identifiable 5 waves (of some degree) that started in October 2018. This suggests we are due at least a correction of some degree (if not a change of trend). - An ending diagonal has formed since March 2020, this could be a bullish sign. I often see such formations at the bottom of a commodity price cycle. - There is bullish RSI divergence unfolding - when declining price is displayed as a series of higher lows on the RSI. This, if nothing else shows a slowing of the price trend and is often present before prices change direction. - www.macroaxis.com (its a secondary source) shows on 31 March 2020 EBITDA isn't that much lower as compared to when BT was at the top of the previous price trend - in 2015-16, when BT was worth over 500 (this was despite a major lease payment over 800m pounds in the prev annual report - which isn't paid every year). So earnings per share have dropped 30% but share price is down 80%? Seems to indicate value to me. - They will not be paying dividends this year, which I like, it is a good idea in uncertain times. Better to re-emerge strong than to deplete oneself in lean times. - Based on previous dividends - which are highly stable and reliable - they could be paying and over 15% return - so I expect price to go up in 2020 - early 2021 in expectation of the resumption of dividends. - Very good dividend coverage ratio - I think only about 30% of EBITDA is distributed as dividends, so even quite large variations in profitability will still allow reinvestment in the business and for dividends to be maintained. - I think Brexit fears are over-blown. Yes there are a number of stories that BT will lose some European contracts due to Brexit, and even if that happens, this will not represent a sizeable hit to profits. - PE ratio is 5.67 - value investing normally recommends buying when PE is below 10-15. - Price to book ratio is 0.66 - so the entire businesses equity and future profit stream are valued at less than 70% of just net assets. Seems to indicate under-valuation - especially for such a high dividend potential equity. - Despite competition, they provide 37% of broadband and seem to do well against the competition in cellphone coverage. - People still need their cellphone and Wifi is basically an essential in 21st century, whether you work from home or not. Most of their drop in revenue was due to lower economic activity in general - but the base-line revenue is quite solid. - If you believe in the "new tech-based economy" (that has resulted in TESLA trading over 1200 times earnings) well Companies like BT will be the foundation of this, providing internet and communications infrastructure. Medium-term I see the 0.382 fib retracement as a plausible price target at 250 (+200%). If FY 2019-2020 dividends are maintained after next year, that will still allow a 5% dividend to be paid, which is better than the average - currently 4.81% for the FTSE 100. Yahoo finance puts a fair value fr BT at 200 uk.finance.yahoo.com - so 250 isn't "pie in the sky". Its definitely under-valued - so I will start to average in. Time horizon; buy in within the next 3-6 months and hold for 5+ years. I guess I did have time lol
LSE:BT.ALong
by flyinkiwi10
2
DAX SHORT POSITION/MASSIVE PULLBACK BY GERMAN ECONOMY Hi guys. Today i'm going to explain why do i expect a massive pullback in German economy. Technicaly : * Daily MACD bearish * Weekly bear crossover projected to happend in a matter of weeks and manifest " in no time" so to say, because DAX index shows signs of SERIOUS WEAKNESS having on mind level (12.7xx index points). * Wall Street so called " experts" claim that it's impossible to predict time frame, but that's their opinion and it's wrong, that's why I'm the one holding 4 WORLD RECORDS REGARDING STOCKS :) -2676 billion $ SHORT on SPX - 5000 billions $ SHORT on SPX -25.000 billion $ SHORT on SPX -40.000 billion $ SHORT on SPX Here is 25.000 billion USD SHORT on S&P500 posted on January 30th (few days before collision from 3400---->2200 index points). REGARDLESS OF HOW MUCH THEY ARE PAID, they don't have a clue and everything they do is "scalping" with large margins and nothing but that :) YES, I CAN LAUGH THEM AT THE FACE AND PROVE THAT I M NUMBER 1 IN THE WORLD WITHOUT BEING MODEST, BUT ONLY OBJECTIVE AS ALWAYS. Short your positions with marging which could go up to X10 (but super "safe play") is X4, X5 leverage. Don't exagarate, don't blow your margins. Once again, German economy is in front of massive collision (we've seen signs of serious weakness in March) when DAX sank to 8000 index points). ECB in Frankfurt is trying to maintain liquidity with stimulative package of 750 billion euros + additional 250 billion euros which is only delaying of IMMINENT collision. Please, don't buy on top, clear your positions and you will be more than good. Thanks for reading and good luck to everyone following my Technical and Fundamental analysis. Don't listen to guys who tell you it's " buy time" because ITS NOT !!! Cheers. From Serbia with love
XETR:DAXShort
by milanjelic
6
FTSE 100 - More room to grow than initially thought.Although the British FTSE100 looks terrible, the bulls are doing a good job to pump up the prices for another -+10%. Fibonacci retracement gives us a minimum C wave of 6520 points and a maximum C wave of almost 7000 points. Because the index is still trapped in a smaller bear channel this tells us we need to stay slightly cautious though. Naturally, breaking the support line brings us to scenario 2 which predicts a lot more downside and possibly the continuation towards a lower low than the March bottom. The RSI shows divergence and is therefor in favour with the bulls.
TVC:UKXLong
by vanfleetdaniel
1
FTSE UK100 - IT WILL CRASH THIS WEEKHello all DuncanForex here with a trade idea - with no advertising about anything so the post will stay active. With the power move down during February 2020 (The AB Move) and then a slower retrace to the previous area of support which is now resistance. The FTSE is going to hit circa 3200 and it starts today. With the bearish pin bar currently being formed, this will create a very nice reversal pattern. Both creating ultimately a CD move at around 3200 This isn't financial advice, however don't buy stocks, wait at least another 12 to 24 months and buy them when the FTSE is circa 3500 Stay safe and safe trading Duncan
TVC:UKXShort
by UnknownUnicorn483829
1
Elliott Wave View: FTSE Rally Likely to Find SellersElliott Wave View of FTSE suggests the Index ended the cycle from August 12 high as wave ((a)) at 5778.40 low. The subdivision of the decline unfolded as 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave Structure. Down from wave X high, wave (i) ended at 6036.13 low. Wave (ii) bounce unfolded as a flat correction and ended at 6173.48 high. Index then resumed lower in wave (iii), which ended at 5824.04 low. Afterwards, the bounce in wave (iv) ended at 5996.24 high. Finally, the push lower in wave (v) ended at 5778.40. This also ended wave ((a)) in higher degree. Currently, Index is doing a bounce in wave ((b)) to correct the cycle from August 12 high. The bounce is unfolding as zigzag correction. Wave (a) ended at 5985.26 high and wave (b) pullback ended at 5868.87 low. Wave (c) is currently is progress and can do another marginal high before ending wave ((b)) in higher degree. The bounce has reached blue box area, which is 100-161.8% extension of wave (a)-(b) at 6075-6203. This area should see sellers appear for more downside or 3 waves pullback at least. While below 6298 high, bounce in 3,7 or 11 swings is expected to fail for more downside. The target to the downside for FTSE is the 100-161.8% extension area from June 8 high against August 12 high at 5483-5638.
TVC:UKX
by Elliottwave-Forecast
ridethepig | Selling the Footsie📌 Exchanging A quick chart update here for today's flow which is essentially intended to cast some light over No-deal Brexit motives. In all cases, losing market access is a bad idea in the short-term and particularly when done frantically. The apparently desirable opportunity to cause maximum damage from Downing Street with NDB is playing an important role in hijacking the flows into UK assets. Recommend avoiding a waste of energy and time attempting to defend portfolios with UK exposure and subsequently focusing elsewhere. Just think back to our coverage of the Pound when buyers were eaten up. This time sellers of UK exposure wish to occupy the downside in Equities to deliver complete annihilation of the economy. With 6,000 holding sellers have time to prevent the recovery and can move lower into Wednesday. The correct path of least resistance is to the downside, a break below 5,775 will leave buyers no choice but to capitulate. Thanks all for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
OANDA:UK100GBPShort
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | Positional Play in UK Equities 📌 UK Equities remain vulnerable with Brexit & Covid in play. (Similar representation for those tracking the moves in S&P, NQ, DJIA and etc...) (1) Firstly challenge the view that Rishi's stimulus produces an immediate effect and anything more than a spring mattress; the furlough scheme is incredibly expensive and weighing heavy despite being totally justified. (2) Recognise the idea that we are in a dead-cat-bounce in Equities broadly and that the UK is particularly exposed to these corrections which is key in positional swings! With this said, I struggle to find positives in the UK and in doing so prevents exposure on the bid. In order to bring interest in UK Equities I would need to see the current lows swept and in the event of a no-deal Brexit then we can see as low as 3579.x. (3) Keep to the strategy - avoid getting soft hands and closing out too early (out of fear of missing the rally) and try rather to operate with a sense of calm and tranquility. (4) Aim for total destruction of UK assets in the coming year, sadly the individual mobility of almost every sector will be affected from the political suicide. (5) Get used to observing the complacency and "sell on rallies"; do not let an emotional retail approach be decisive. (6) Remember what is important for Positional swings ... we are not attacking, or even defending, but remaining nimble with the capital outflows, rather like meandering water. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
OANDA:UK100GBPShort
by ridethepig
3
ASTON MARTIN - REVERSAL ZONE? LONG-TERM INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITYAston Martin has been on a steep and vigorous decline since its IPO. Could Aston Martin turn things around from here and start reversing from current prices? Aston Martin has recently announced involvement in F1 with Racing Point rebranded as Aston Martin. This could help in turning things around. Billionaire Lawrence Stroll has clear intentions to do so and has invested into the company with a £260mil injection. Toto Wolff, Mercedes F1 team-principal has also bought a stake in Aston Martin. This indicates a large force and urgency to turn the Aston Martin brand around, stabilise the business and clean the balance sheet. With the share price being significantly devalued and oversold and the falling wedge breakout, it could be an opportunity to invest long and short-term. Short-term in the sense that the stock is highly volatile meaning returns (and losses) are seen much quicker. However, as the business model and balance sheet, as of now, is very unappealing, unstable and risky, the clear down-trend might still be in play and the current equilibrium triangle pattern maybe a consolidation phase before breaking lower in continuation. 4 things can happen here: Equilibrium breakout upwards and a reversal Equilibrium breakout downwards and a continuation Equilibrium breakout downwards and a double bottom Delayed Range-bound consolidation sideways VERDICT: The trades/investments above should be played in accordance with your style and risk-tolerance since, given the volatility of this stock, there is high risk. Since the chart is in a clear down-trend, the balance sheet isn't yet appealing and macro-economic factors such as covid, bull calls are more risky than bear so do your own due diligence and manage risk appropriately.
LSE:AMLLong
by JayanVarsani
FTSE100 - UKX - Range Bound. FTSE100 Weighted by various components, as well as that there was news that few companies from FTSE100 index will be removed and replaced. However, let's focus on technical aspects: We are within a range bound area for a while! Could look at it like bullish flag or a wedge/Triangle pattern (Be careful of fake break out). Which ever way this index breaks - I have kept the key support and resistance areas lined up. Those will be the areas I will be looking into in-depth. I advise you to perhaps add alerts or feeling towards risky side at limit orders, so you won't miss the trade opportunity! Just a trading idea, not a recommendation. Best wishes, Trade Journal
TVC:UKX
by Trade_Journal