FTSE UK Stock Index (A strong reaction is unfolding1)View On UK Stock Index FTSE (12 JUNE 2020)
UK stock index is on the rise after a big sell down of yesterday.
Their Central Bank (CB) is flooded with cash with the license to print to the oblivion and the help of their friends from FED.
It is rather risky and it will be considered as bad timing if you want to take a short now.
Let's the pullback take shape first. It can swing back up to 6239 regions or higher first.
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FTSE
70p / 80p mid-long term - £142m cash / £142m mcapA risky play of course but after losing over 80% of it's value due to JPMorgan selling, Covid 19 & a slowdown in sales, company has sold 2 assets & have at present around £142m in cash
I believe a lot of the turmoil is already priced in ahead of results.
Mcap is at £142m which means their business is valued at cash level.
Very undervalued considering their cash level & staff coming back to work. This business should be worth at least 60-70p I believe based on their previous numbers. Nethertheless a slight risk at present period due to covid 19 but mid- long term this company should recover well as sales move back up.
I will start scaling out around 40-50p to protect profits but will leave some shares to ride the rest of the way. 70p - 80p ULTIMATE TARGET
New CEO to turnaround the company with experience of doing so to others.
Dividend most likely will also be back to attract new investors in months to come.
April 30th:
In the last week, as demand started to increase across the industry, the Group has commenced re-opening selected sites across its Distribution and Roofing businesses to provide greater support to our customers and offer increased access to our products and services. 15 sites are now open across our Distribution business and 20 sites are open across our Roofing business. The Group is currently planning for the majority of its sites to be open by mid-May.
FTSE 100 Shorts Incoming With everything taken into consideration :
1. Highly leveraged debt by UK companies - which seems unlikely to be repaid , with the minimal cashflows at the moment
2. COVID19 lockdown removal will not play as optimistically as MPs expected to play
3. the new 14day lockdown will also add to the stress that the UK Economy is dealing with
4. Protests which are happening at the moment , will result for sure in many new cases of Corona virus and additional damage to the economy and lockdown release
5. Growing Tensions with China , they might result in Tariffs which the UK cannot afford at this time
So with all the above fundamental confirmation
As well as a typical Eliott Wave correction move A-B-C - we are seeing wave B starting to lose it's steam and the potential
Wave C to the downside forming - Expected Downturn by the end of October
Also the Fibbonacci level of 0.618
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🥊Not even Winston Churchill can save the FTSE from free-fall🐻The FTSE 100 chart on the monthly looks pretty bad.
We can see bearish divergence since 2007, with the market rally going off very little momentum, it briefly touched the oversold area once in 12+ years, which shows a lack of strong buying, and a bubble in the market.
The first 2 arrows show the FTSE toying with the idea of breaking the Ichimoku Cloud (a versatile indicator that defines support and resistance), with the financial arrow showing that we dropped right through it.
The bubble has now popped, the question is can we re-inflate it?
What's happening in the UK right now on the macro front
- Lockdown fully ends around July 4th
- Locals scared to leave the house
- 6 month mortgage holidays and credit card debt
- Furlough scheme is the only thing keeping people off the streets from rioting
- Businesses that were unprofitable being bailed out
- Brexit
- Peaceful protests
UK is a nation built on debt, nobody has savings (well very few).
This can be seen with 6 month mortgage holidays, the UK government paying people to stay at home and not work, badly run businesses getting bailed out.
Even the airlines cannot lose a month without going under.
With fear and lack of growth, where is the UK going to get power to recover from its all-time highs?
When the furlough ends, many on it will lose their jobs. And when the mortgage holidays end and people have no money to pay for it, what will happen next? I see lots of down-side.
There are a lot of bear cases for the FTSE 100, and very few positives.
The UK will need a sharp rebound, V-shaped for the FTSE to keep moving upwards. For now, the rally is based on hope and government stimulus, which is moving us up, will it continue?.
If you like my macro view on markets, check out my other charts as I often give macro updates on major markets like Gold, S&P, oil etc.
#UK100 #FTSE100 Has Completed A Bearish Pattern Like #SNP500Trader, UK100 has just completed a bearish pattern. This can potentially lead it to lower price levels.
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Have a great trading week!
P.S. (This is for education only. Not a financial advice or signal.)
FTSE outlookPrice failed to break 50% fib level on Friday. Now formed a potential double top there. Break of the neckline opens targets lower.
Break higher opens way to 61.8%.
Bank of England now put negative rates on the table and escalating US-China relations create potential for a bearish week. A short would be better for risk.
Please support the idea and share your thoughts on FTSE!
Good Luck and Stay Healthy!
303p - 330p Long term target swing from 100p / 75p entry #ftseAs a long term investment I am looking into start scaling in slowly in BT as I believe that UK economy will thrive in next few years once this period is over.
a 300p (200% from this price level) will give a great return alongside dividend for many investors.
I believe scaling in will be a better strategy then all in.
Please do remember we might still do a double bottom at 75p!!
FTSE100 Tries To REVIVE itselfFTSE 100 has suffered enough! This bloodshed must not go on any longer for the sake of the UK and its economy!
Major support hit. Ranging below that, we could be in for some serious turmoil which I really do not wish to experience first hand. If it maintains its support level, we could see a slow range up to the three targets listed. We shall have to see how it plays out. No stop loss because I'm confident in this one. A big statement to make on such a volatile index, but I have belief that, come the period following the bank holiday, we can revive this index. I hope so anyway - otherwise there may be some serious burnage.
FTSE - Fading gains, more downside expected. UK100 is Bearish - We look to Sell at 5860
▪️ Overnight price action has drifted lower and remains pressured by the medium term bearish bias.
▪️ Levels close to the 61.8% pullback level of 6000 found sellers.
▪️ Broken out of the channel formation to the downside.
▪️ We look for a re-test of the upward trending resistance.
▪️ Further downside is expected although we prefer to set shorts at our bespoke resistance levels at 5860, resulting in improved risk/reward.
▪️ Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile.
Stop: 5890
Target1: 5665
Target2: 5630
FTSE - Selling a re-test of the channel UK100 is Bearish - We look to Sell at 5965
▪️ Overnight price action has drifted lower and remains pressured by the medium term bearish bias.
▪️ Levels close to the 61.8% pullback level of 6000 found sellers.
▪️ Broken out of the channel formation to the downside.
▪️ We look for a re-test of the upward trending resistance.
▪️ Further downside is expected although we prefer to set shorts at our bespoke resistance levels at 5965, resulting in improved risk/reward.
▪️ Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile.
Stop: 6015
Target1: 5665
Target2: 5500
FTSE trend line retestFTSE is on the way to retest the broken trend line again.
Potential to looks for reversals on smaller time frame to trade the bounce.
Morning started on a bullish note for equities and US session starts in 30 mins, so volatility will go up.
Please support the idea and share your thoughts on FTSE!
Good Luck and Stay Healthy!
FTSE - Selling a re-test of the broken channel UK100 is Bearish - We look to Sell at 5933
▪️ Broken out of the channel formation to the downside.
▪️ We have a 50% Fibonacci pullback level of 5936 from 6209 to 5665.
▪️ Positive overnight flows lead to an expectation of a firm open this morning.
▪️ Further downside is expected although we prefer to set shorts at our bespoke resistance levels at 5933, resulting in improved risk/reward.
▪️ Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile.
Stop: 5983
Target1: 5665
Target2: 5627
FTSE 100 - Short Seller's GiftA few days ago I posted on the FTSE 100. I mentioned at that time the (now clear) Bear Flag formation in blue.
We've broken out of that Flag for a few days now and have been in a sideways horizontal channel so far.
I can only see this as gift for anyone who hadn't already been short.
There's a potential 15% downside retracement that I've penciled in: by calculating the vertical height at the start of the Flag formation - and using that distance from the breakout point.
Any contrary views I'm happy to hear.
Adrian
The FTSE 100 Holding At SupportThe FTSE 100 has been held up by a strong level of support over the past couple of months.
February 2016 created a low at 5499 which was retested in March and April 2020 and going into
May, we want to see momentum to the upside.
Identifying major levels of support in advance is very useful because it will give you an objective
view of the markets, it also prepares you in advance for potential opportunities.
In this case, we will be getting ready for shorting opportunities if price decides to trade below 5499.
If price remains above support and begins to rise then we can prepare for long opportunities.
Price is still below the daily 200 simple moving average (not shown) and we want to see price move
above it, but ultimately we want to see price break above the current all-time high at 7903 before
looking for long opportunities.
For now, we will continue to stand aside from entering positions in stocks while we preserve our capital.
See below for more information on our trading techniques.
As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.