FTSE - ShortThe market is testing a previous neckline. There is a pull-back opportunity and we think the market could go lower due to bad sentiment in short term.
FTSE
FTSE: Bullish and bearish scenario explained.The UK index was strongly sold near the 7,730 Resistance this month and has so far reacted with a decline. This drop is so far being contained on the 1D MA200 (orange line). 1D has turned neutral (RSI = 47.582, MACD = 11.270, ADX = 21.739) which is normally an indication of support.
Following the Golden Cross late in December, this sequence is similar with the last Golden Cross occurrence in April, 2019. Same pattern with a top afterwards, rejection and support on the 1D MA200. So as long as the orange rectangle (seen on the chart) holds, we are bullish towards 7,670 - 7,730. If the orange barrier breaks, then selling will most likely escalate towards the 7,000 1W Support.
** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. **
Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
Equity Markets More Downside? Swing to Form.Have been speaking about the equities showing interesting exhaustion patterns. Well, we had the break and quite the run lower. Today, the day before the Fed, we have had a move up. Many already saying look how strong the market is, shaking off fears of the coronavirus and other world events. Not so fast, market structure was expecting this pullback, and until we close above the previous break out zone, we can still make another lower high swing.
To preface, I expect markets can still go higher because there is nowhere to go for yield. I have spoken about this in many posts. Equities is the only place to go for yield with central banks depressing interest rates. Central Banks can control the short term rates, but not the long term rates. QE was a way to manage long term rates by effectively purchasing long term bonds, thereby depressing long term interest rates. The world has been forced to go into real estate or stocks for yield. Pension funds especially, who have always been very much into fixed income, but now cannot make their 8% a year when some pension funds are from 60%-100% in bonds. I argue these pension funds have been forced into stocks, and if stocks ever fall a lot, there will be big issues.
Of course, the Fed will keep this market up with cheap money. Again, they are forcing money into stocks as it is the only place to go for yield. We have Fed chair Powell speaking tomorrow, and the Fed is expected to NOT cut interest rates. However, Powell will still have to present a dovish stance to appease markets. Hopefully it is not another boring press conference like December, where it seemed like the Fed was stalling.
Again, we do expect stocks to pullback here and there. This is normal for market structure. Presented are a multitude of equity set ups with nice charts.
All of them have had an uptrend, and a stalling/exhausting pattern. These are either ranges or even potential head and shoulders forming. With this in mind, we should expect a lower high which is not formed and we are expecting potential lower highs to form in these set ups. Again, the safe way to play this trade is to await the lower low break to CONFIRM the lower high. If we break above the breakout zones then this is nullified, which can potentially happen as I have presented why money has to be in equities.
The S&P had a nice double top pattern and a break below the flip zone. It has extended quite a lot and naturally we were expecting a pullback. Will it go all the way back to the break out zone at 3310? Or will we see some action at these fib levels.
The Nasdaq breakout did not look as good as the S&P's because we would have liked to see a pattern. Was hoping for a head and shoulders with a bounce up before breaking below 9111 but it did not happen. Now we await for a lower high.
The Russell 2000 setting up a head and shoulders on the daily potentially.
The Nikkei 225 as well. Double top as well.
The German Dax has a set up on the daily, but still requires a long way down before testing the big support zone on the daily chart. There is a play here on the 4 hour chart that looks appealing. Again, awaiting the swing.
The UK FTSE retesting the breakout zone, although I would avoid due to the Brexit deadline coming up.
The French CAC had a nice break of a flip zone.
The Spanish IBEX/ESP also similar.
Euro Stoxx 50 is interesting because although the chart looks similar to the CAC and IBEX, the exhaustion occurred at a major resistance zone, at previous all time highs.
Perhaps the cleanest is the AUS200. Again, retesting a break out zone and potentially can form a lower high. You can see the break out and move lower is very extended.
Overall, this is normal for market structure. We shall see if we get the first swing, and potentially another swing.
FTSE UK Stock Index (It is getting too fast and too furious)View On UK Stock Index FTSE (19 Dec 2019)
We were in the fast-and-furious rise up recently and it may about to hit some roadblock.
So, we may be seeing a strong pullback in the near future.
Just be careful with the long side for now.
DYODD, all the best and read the disclaimer too.
Feel Free to "Follow", press "LIKE" "Comment".
Thank You!
Legal Risk Disclosure:
Trading foreign exchange or CFD on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors.
The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.
The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.
You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor.
DISCLAIMER:
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information discussed in this presentation or linked to from this presentation are provided as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice.
Sonicr Mastery Team does not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
FTSE, Nice sell setupFTSE 100 (UK100 / UKX) has formed a nice sell setup with a very tight SL here.
The safest trade would be a sell order just under the current structure as depicted on the chart and watch it.
Trade with care and stay green.
Please let me know your view about the idea
JD Sports Very Much Bullish!JD Sports has a good history of trending well as we saw from the trend between
December 2018 to May 2019.
Price became exhausted and went into consolidation from May 2019 to September 2019
and the breakout in September was the first indication of further trends to come, which
is what we are currently experiencing.
This has not been the neatest of trends but price has consistently been heading to the upside
forming higher highs and higher lows.
Price may become exhausted again and form a period of consolidation and in that case,
we would just need to wait for a breakout to confirm a continuation of the bull trend.
A break above £8.90 should see further moves to the upside and give us the opportunity
to add to our already profitable positions.
See below for more information on our trading techniques.
As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
Whitbread - Premier level to get inn? (Sorry!)Buy Whitbread (WTB.L)
Whitbread PLC is a United Kingdom-based company, which owns and operates hotels and restaurants. The Company is organized into a single business segment, Premier Inn. Premier Inn provides services in relation to accommodation and food both in the United Kingdom and internationally.
Market Cap: £6.38Billion
Whitbread moved sharply higher on the result of the election before Christmas as the price gapped higher. The shares have corrected lower in recent days to close the gap at 4654p and fresh buyers emerged. The shares are now breaking higher from a flag/pennant pattern on the daily chart, which suggests a continuation higher will be seen in the short term. The formation has a measured move target at 5940p, which is roughly 24% above the current price.
Stop: 4550p
Target 1: 5100p
Target 2: 5940p
Target 3: 6680p
Travis Perkins - Supplying profits and building accounts?Buy Travis Perkins (TPK.L)
Travis Perkins plc is a United Kingdom-based product supplier to the building, construction and home improvement markets. The Company operates through segments, which include General Merchanting, Plumbing & Heating, Contracts and Consumer.
Market Cap: £4.07Billion
Travis Perkins has completed an inverse head and shoulders bottom pattern on the weekly chart as prices advanced above 1495p. The shares gapped higher on the outcome of the general election in the UK, rising sharply towards 1841p. The shares have consolidated in recent weeks to close the gap created at 1544.5p and we have now seen a break higher from a wedge pattern. This suggests there will be a continuation higher in price over the coming days and weeks.
Stop: 1495p
Target 1: 1830p
Target 2: 2000p
Target 3: 2330p
Morgan Advanced Materials (MGAM) - Continue higher expected.Buy Morgan Advanced Materials (MGAM.L)
Morgan Advanced Materials plc, formerly The Morgan Crucible Company plc, is a United Kingdom-based engineering company. The Company is engaged in advanced materials science and engineering of ceramics, carbon and composites. The Company's segments include North America, Europe and Asia/Rest of World.
Market Cap: £889.21 Million
Morgan Advanced Materials broke out of a bottom pattern back in November 2019 above 283p and the price went on to reach 339p very quickly. We have seen some evidence of the price begin to consolidate within a flag/pennant pattern. The shares appear to be on the verge of completing the pattern, which should lead to a continuation higher over the short to medium term. The ultimate target is at 424p, which is roughly 35% higher than the current price.
Stop: 292p
Target 1: 365p
Target 2: 400p
Target 3: 424p
Once 4p broken target 6.5p slice LT - 10p+ SWING TRADEQuite a similar setup to EML which I'm heavily invested as well.
placing was done at 3p so cashed up with several assets to head into 2020 with 2 of them being producing assets.
Very bullish in this company with BoD having skin-in-the-game Ex-Tullow Oil people.
Aiming for 6.5p for a slice but long term this company is set to embark in becoming a mid-cap company.
watch this space!!!
Accumulating at lows!!
Possibly a retrace before swing up 405p+Sideways & let it settle before a swing up.
Superdry ex-CEO is back & I believe they will improve in time, 6 months not enough for full change but there is symptoms on improvement.
BT Group - Filled the gapBuy BT Group (BT.A.L)
BT Group plc is a communications services company. The Company is engaged in selling fixed-voice services, broadband, mobile and television products and services, as well as various communications services ranging from phone and broadband to managed networked information technology (IT) solutions and cyber security protection.
Market Cap: £18.96Billion
BT has broken out of a channel pattern on the daily chart. The shares recieved a boost following the Conservative win in the General Election and the shares gapped higher. We have now seen that gap get filled, which should attract fresh buying interest.
Stop: 181.6p
Target 1: 212p
Target 2: 230p
Target 3: 265p
Ibstock - Building momentum brick by brick.Buy Ibstock (IBST.L)
Ibstock plc is a United Kingdom-based company, which is engaged in manufacturing of clay bricks and concrete products. The Company's segments are the UK and the US. The Company's principal products include clay bricks, brick components, concrete stone masonry substitutes, concrete fencing, pre-stressed concrete products and concrete rail products.
Market Cap: £1.01Billion
Ibstock shares are trading in a short-term uptrend, which topped out around 265p. The break of resistance at 239p was met with fresh buying interest before profit taking set in. The corrective move lower in recent days has seen the shares retest the breakout level at 239p. A bullish flag/pennant pattern has also formed, which suggests higher price will be seen in the short term. The first target is the resistance at 266p, with the ultimate target up at 305p.
Stop: 235p
Target 1: 266p
Target 2: 275p
Target 3: 305p
Interested in UK Stocks?
Join our free Telegram channel for up to date analysis on the best main market opportunities in the UK right now - t.me
UK100: Could the slide bellow 7,190 extend?FTSE100 (UK100) index is also an interesting one to watch this week. The index was bounded in a range above 7,000 handle since August. Note that FTSE has been in a loose inverse relation with the pound since the Brexit referendum.
So, in case of a clear Conservative win this Thursday, a strong rally in both the pound and FTSE would be a strong sign of return in investor confidence. Take in mind that the UK elections are held when markets are open, and a new government may be formed on Friday, so volatility could be significant throughout the night and also during all day at Friday.
UK100 index were steady on Monday after posting the biggest weekly loss in 9 weeks last week. A firmer pound prevented more extreme gains as the latest poll showed the Conservatives increasing its lead over Labour by two-digits percentage points.
The UK100 index is trading below the 50-day and 200-day SMAs on 4-hour chart. The RSI indicator is sloping down on both H4 and D time frames. This morning FTSE broke the first support at 7,200. We opened Short position at 7,190 with Stop Loss above 7,250 and Take Profit around 7,130. There is located the lower line of Bollinger Bands on 4-hour chart and since October this level is acting as key support.
On opposite side, the first resistance is the top in the last 3 days at 7,256, followed by H4 50 SMA, middle line of BBs and 200 SMA (on both H4 and daily charts is around 7,320).
Do you trade this index and how?
Tesco - Pattern consolidation for long trajectory.Tesco:
-In the daily chart: Price action has consolidated into a rangebound symmetrical triangle, this usually symbolises continuation (to the upside) but I do not discount the possibility of a short if we fail to breakout long and in-turn breakout in the opposite direction.
Identifying a breakout: In this case price has had bullish candles deviate outside of the range, however, using both a price and time filters for confirmed entry, no bullish daily candle has so far managed to close outside. As we are right at the upper wall of the pattern, this could occur soon for a nice RRR ONLY IF we get a bullish daily candle close long.
Catalysts for the move: UK election - If the conservatives gain a majority on Thursday night then I expect this entry position to be triggered, if not then i expect the opposite for this and the FTSE100 in general if labour win or there is uncertainty with a hung parliament.
FTSE Bottoming Pattern on 4 Hour Trade/ British ElectionsJust before I talk about this trade, just a fair warning that the British Elections are this week on Thursday December 12th. So a high risk event, and will be dominated by Brexit promises.
I have spoken about how Central Banks in the Western world are stuck, and they are now attempting to maintain confidence in the system. They want to go back to easing and QE but remember, QE was supposed to be a one time desperate policy to prevent a 1920-30's like great depression. When we go back to QE, people will realize it did not work in the first place. They will use different names to mask QE, but this is the confidence crisis that looms.
These central banks have one role now: to keep assets propped. This will eventually be morphed into buyers of LAST RESORT (instead of lenders of last resort...which was the central banks original mandate when they were first being formed).
I am expecting higher equity prices in the US because there is nowhere to go for yield anymore. Also, many investors know the Fed will support this market. Not to mention the President needs high stock markets if he wants to win the next election using "Keeping America Great" slogan.
Yes, we will have pullbacks, but equity markets will go higher. I speak about why this can be a problem for the Fed and the US Dollar. Post linked below.
In terms of the current FTSE chart, we did make a bottoming/ double bottom pattern at a flip/support zone. From here, we had a nice break above a flip zone marked in blue, a strong break, and now it seems we are making our first higher low which will be confirmed with this current 4 hour candle close.
Target will be the flip zone at 7340 for the trade.
FTSE Buy SignalPattern: 1W Rectangle.
Signal: Bullish near the 1W Support Zone.
Target: 7400 (just below the 1W Resistance).
UKX Price Action Analysis | Distribution SchematicThe Distribution Schematic #2, by Richard Wyckoff:
bit.ly
UK100 is currently in Phase D and has already done a Bearish SFP, which indicates a possible downtrend. This seems like a nice example of the Distribution Schematic #2 and also has a fundamental background due to #Brexit. Rest is Risk Management.
Entry: 7390
SL: 7810
TP-1: 6910
TP-2: 6610
TP-3: 6360
R/R: 2.44
Please let me know if you have any suggestions or any ideas to add. I can also give you more detailed explanation for this specific trade setup.
The ideas published here are not financial advices.
FTSE 100 - Can it clear the cluster of resistance?We look to Sell at 7445
Bespoke resistance is located at 7445
Positive overnight flows lead to an expectation of a firm open this morning
We have a 61.8% Fibonacci pullback level of 7432 from 7729 to 7003
Although the anticipated move lower is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today
Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile
Stop: 7485
Target 1: 7275
Target 2: 7205
Ferguson - Turning up the heatBuy Ferguson (FERG.L)
Ferguson PLC is a distributor of plumbing and heating products. The Company operates through seven business units: Blended Branches, Waterworks standalone, HVAC standalone, Industrial standalone, Fire and Fabrication, Facilities Supply standalone and B2C e-commerce.
Market Cap: £15.35Billion
Ferguson is trading in a bullish long term channel. The shares are trading just below all time high and there is no sign of the momentum slowing. The small corrective move lower in recent days has attracted buying interest and a move to new highs is expected.
Stop: 6545p
Target 1: 7200p
Target 2: 7600p
Target 3: 8000p
Interested in UK Stocks?
Join our free Telegram channel for up to date analysis on the best main market opportunities in the UK right now - t.me
Convatec - Chronically undervalued?Buy Convatec (CTEC.L)
ConvaTec Group PLC is a United Kingdom-based medical product and technology company. The Company focuses on therapies for the management of chronic conditions, including products used for advanced chronic and acute wound care, ostomy care, continence and critical care and infusion devices used in the treatment of diabetes and other conditions.
Market Cap: £3.79Billion
The recovery over the medium term continues as the shares trade in a sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The recent corrective move back to the trend line has attracted some buying interest. The formation and break of a small wedge is also an encouraging sign that we can expect a continuation. There is an unfilled gap at 223p to target on the upside.
Stop: 181.6p
Target 1: 211p
Target 2: 222p
Target 3: 240p
Interested in UK Stocks?
Join our free Telegram channel for up to date analysis on the best main market opportunities in the UK right now - t.me
FTSE 100 - Possible sequence of lower highs.We look to Sell at 7380
Trading has been mixed and volatile.
The trend of lower highs is located at 7382.
Positive overnight flows lead to an expectation of a firm open this morning.
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile.
Stop: 7415
Target 1:7275
Target 2: 7200
