UKX Price Action Analysis | Distribution SchematicThe Distribution Schematic #2, by Richard Wyckoff:
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UK100 is currently in Phase D and has already done a Bearish SFP, which indicates a possible downtrend. This seems like a nice example of the Distribution Schematic #2 and also has a fundamental background due to #Brexit. Rest is Risk Management.
Entry: 7390
SL: 7810
TP-1: 6910
TP-2: 6610
TP-3: 6360
R/R: 2.44
Please let me know if you have any suggestions or any ideas to add. I can also give you more detailed explanation for this specific trade setup.
The ideas published here are not financial advices.
FTSE
FTSE 100 - Can it clear the cluster of resistance?We look to Sell at 7445
Bespoke resistance is located at 7445
Positive overnight flows lead to an expectation of a firm open this morning
We have a 61.8% Fibonacci pullback level of 7432 from 7729 to 7003
Although the anticipated move lower is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today
Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile
Stop: 7485
Target 1: 7275
Target 2: 7205
Ferguson - Turning up the heatBuy Ferguson (FERG.L)
Ferguson PLC is a distributor of plumbing and heating products. The Company operates through seven business units: Blended Branches, Waterworks standalone, HVAC standalone, Industrial standalone, Fire and Fabrication, Facilities Supply standalone and B2C e-commerce.
Market Cap: £15.35Billion
Ferguson is trading in a bullish long term channel. The shares are trading just below all time high and there is no sign of the momentum slowing. The small corrective move lower in recent days has attracted buying interest and a move to new highs is expected.
Stop: 6545p
Target 1: 7200p
Target 2: 7600p
Target 3: 8000p
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Convatec - Chronically undervalued?Buy Convatec (CTEC.L)
ConvaTec Group PLC is a United Kingdom-based medical product and technology company. The Company focuses on therapies for the management of chronic conditions, including products used for advanced chronic and acute wound care, ostomy care, continence and critical care and infusion devices used in the treatment of diabetes and other conditions.
Market Cap: £3.79Billion
The recovery over the medium term continues as the shares trade in a sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The recent corrective move back to the trend line has attracted some buying interest. The formation and break of a small wedge is also an encouraging sign that we can expect a continuation. There is an unfilled gap at 223p to target on the upside.
Stop: 181.6p
Target 1: 211p
Target 2: 222p
Target 3: 240p
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FTSE 100 - Possible sequence of lower highs.We look to Sell at 7380
Trading has been mixed and volatile.
The trend of lower highs is located at 7382.
Positive overnight flows lead to an expectation of a firm open this morning.
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile.
Stop: 7415
Target 1:7275
Target 2: 7200
FTSE 100 - Selling ralliesTrade Idea
Broken out of the channel formation to the downside.
Continued downward momentum from 7404 resulted in the pair posting net daily losses yesterday.
Negative overnight flows lead to an expectation of a weaker open this morning.
Further downside is expected although we prefer to set shorts at our bespoke resistance levels at 7310, resulting in improved risk/reward.
Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile.
We look to Sell at 7310
Stop: 7355
Target 1; 7095
Target 2: 7005
FTSE trade updateAfter yesterday's news from USA, that they back Hong Kong's bill, China said they will retaliate if it becomes a law. Tensions arise and we are back in risk off mood.
Now approaching big support soon and 200SMA. A break lower for a short. A bounce of support before continuation may offer earlier entry with better risk-reward.
Good Luck!
SSE - Electrifying potential gainsBuy SSE (SSE.L)
SSE plc is engaged in producing, distributing and supplying electricity and gas, as well as other energy-related services to homes and businesses in Great Britain and Ireland.
Market Cap: £13.35Billion
SSE broke above resistance on a move above 1237p back in October. The shares have since corrected to retest the new support and now appear to be attracting fresh buying interest. The close above the 10EMA and the completion of a bullish flag suggests that more upside is likely in the short term.
Stop: 1223p
Target 1: 1330p
Target 2: 1477p
Target 3: 1625p
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Bellway - Building momentumBuy Bellway (BWY.L)
Bellway plc is a major UK residential property developer based in Newcastle upon Tyne. It is listed on the London Stock Exchange and is a constituent of the FTSE 250 Index.
Market Cap: £3.9Billion
The medium-term trend is bullish on Bellway. The shares have corrected lower in recent weeks and appears to have found some support at 3125p. There was strong move higher in yesterday’s session and further upside towards resistance at 3710p is expected in the short term.
Stop: 3078p
Target 1: 3600p
Target 2: 3710p
Target 3: 3800p
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FTSE MIB Triangle Breakout!INDEX:FTSEMIB is clearly breaking out a perfect triangle pattern, and this is a confirmation that a long position would be the best opportunity for a long term investment for this year... I think the best would be:
Open a long position
Keeping it up for one year max
Closing the position before (10 days before min) the falling wave that comes after the triangle pattern.
Happy trading to all!
What do you think it'll happen after the triangle breakout? Would you do a totally long position or maybe use some oscillations to maximize profit? What about the leverage? I think that a 2x leverage would be the best and the safest option for this position.
A50 hit A new high this year, A bull market is far away?Today, the a50 futures index of Singapore hit a new high in 2019, which represents the Chinese blue chip stocks. In the past four years, the index has been showing strong characteristics. A big convergence triangle has reached the end, and if it breaks through 15000, it will form a breakthrough trend. We know that China is revamping A series of financial regulations to attract international capital inflows, and the continued increase in flows through Hong Kong over the past few months shows that foreign investors are bullish on China's a-shares.
So what is the logic? After China's economic stagnation, actually I have been calling for everyone to see how A shares, when economic recession period, the theory of capital outflow is inevitable, but China is not the same, because there are all kinds of control measures, leading to the freedom of capital flows to the developed market, so in the case of domestic capital couldn't go out, can only choose A relatively safe investments, and the economic recession period, the influence of real estate investment and industrial investment suffered more serious, and as A light assets of the securities investment become relatively flexible choice. So from this point of view, A shares are more suitable for the current capital choice. And we also know that after Japan signed the plaza accord with the United States, the economy suffered a major blow, but the nikkei index has a bull trend, this is the characteristics of securities assets.
But on the other hand, China still has A lot of room for reform. Financial reform is one of the most important targets. Therefore, in the context that the Chinese government is in urgent need of capital securitization, a-shares naturally become the first choice for investment.
So I believe in the next 3-5 years, A shares will show A slow bull trend, but this slow bull trend will have several characteristics
1, differentiation is more and more obvious, garbage shares will lie down on the floor, and will not appear before the reincarnation phenomenon, do not hope garbage shares pheasant into phoenix, because the board has implemented the quasi-registration system, shell resource value dropped significantly
2, innovation is the main melody, with the deepening of China's economic reform, technology innovation is an inevitable trend, whether import substitution, or the industrial upgrading, has a huge space, and 5 g based on Internet of things will be in 10 years to become the foundation of the global economy increase, China will not give up this chance, relevant industry faces huge opportunity
3. The correct exchange rate of capital will be greatly improved, and the quality of Chinese listed companies will also be greatly improved. With the entry of international capital, the standard level will be continuously improved, and the mode of forcing reform will be more obvious
Above all, I think the a-share market is full of opportunities, we should grasp well, look at the past four years, although after the crash, A series of deleveraging brings the pain, but we also see the a-share phenomenon is more and more good, maotai such soft gold value recognition is A good phenomenon, and apple so great company, also can appear in China.
WH Smiths - Travelling towards 2600p?Buy WH Smiths (SMWH.L)
WH Smith PLC is a United Kingdom-based retailer in convenience, books and news for travelling customers. The Company is a high street stationer, bookseller and newsagent. The Company operates through two segments: High Street and Travel. The Company's Travel business sells its products to cater for people on the move or in need of a convenience offer.
Market Cap: £895Million
WH Smith's share price appears to have completed a triple bottom on the move above resistance at 2164p. In recent days the shares have corrected lower to find support at the neckline of the pattern. The projected upside target is at 2436p and beyond that 2604p. The momentum continues to be positive following upbeat results posted on the 17th of October. Higher prices are expected.
Stop: 2130p
Target 1: 2324p
Target 2: 2436p
Target 3: 2600p
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Elementis - A break above 167.9p and it will be in its element.Buy Elementis (ELM.L)
Elementis plc is a United Kingdom-based specialty chemicals company. The Company operates through two segments: Specialty Products and Chromium. The Specialty Products segment provides functional additives to the coatings, personal care and energy markets.
Market Cap: £895Million
The bearish momentum in Elementis appears to have slowed in recent weeks. It’s an early call, but I think a bottom pattern could be about to complete. The shares posted an impressive turnaround from the lows in yesterday's session to form a large hammer candle. A break of resistance at 167.9p should get things going on the upside. The medium-term target is up at 209p.
Stop: 139.6p
Target 1: 175p
Target 2: 198p
Target 3: 209p
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Just Group - Just about to explode?Buy Just Group (JUST.L)
Just Group plc, formerly JRP Group plc, is a financial services company. Its segments are insurance, other segments and corporate activities. The insurance segment writes insurance products for the retirement market, which include guaranteed income for life solutions and defined benefit de-risking solutions, care plans, and drawdown contracts, and invests the premiums received from these contracts in corporate bonds, lifetime mortgage advances, and other financial investments.
Market Cap: £660.9Million
Just Group has been in the process of forming a bottom pattern for the past couple of months. The break above resistance at 57.50p confirms the pattern and projects an upside move to 79.30p over the short to medium term. There is also an unfilled gap at 96.50p, which formed when the company posted disappointing results. I like the prospects of recovery from here.
Stop: 54p
Target 1: 72.75p
Target 2: 79.30p
Target 3: 96.50p
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Balfour Beatty - Share price about to crumble?Sell Balfour Beatty (BBY.L)
Balfour Beatty plc is an infrastructure company that provides maintenance, upgrade and management services in power transmission, utilities infrastructure, and road and rail. The Company operates through three segments: Construction Services segment, which is engaged in the physical construction of an asset; Support Services segment, which is engaged in supporting existing assets or functions, such as asset maintenance and refurbishment, and Infrastructure Investments segment, which is engaged in the acquisition operation and disposal of infrastructure assets, such as roads, hospitals, schools, student accommodation.
Market Cap: £1.57Billion
Balfour Beatty is trading in a long-term downtrend on the chart and is currently at the upper end of a bearish triangle pattern. The price action has been slightly bullish in recent weeks as the shares gapped higher in August on results. Crest Nicholson today posted a profit warning and expect profits to dip over the next 2 years. That could be a warning shot to all construction companies in the UK. We would prefer to reduce exposure to anything construction related at present and look at speculative short positions.
Stop: 242p
Target 1: 202.4p
Target 2: 184.6p
Target 3: 168.2p
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easyJet - Ready to take off again?Buy EasyJet (EZJ.L)
easyJet plc is a United Kingdom-based low-cost airline carrier. The Company operates as a low-cost European point-to-point short-haul airline. The Company operates through its route network segment. The Company operates on over 820 routes across more than 30 countries with its fleet of over 250 Airbus aircrafts.
Market Cap: £4.77Billion
Having completed a large inverse head and shoulders bottom in the middle of September the shares have been on a great run. The recent spike to highs of 1330p was met with some profit-taking. The correction lower has been quite shallow, and the price now appears to have broken higher from a pennant pattern. This is considered a continuation pattern and therefore the expectation is for further upside in the short to medium term.
Stop: 1171p
Target 1: 1383p
Target 2: 1505p
Target 3: 1600p
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UK Market - Impulse move in the making.Two points of view are provided in the chart as two scenarios are both likely.
Upside has a target of £10,000, Pivot level at £6,000 and downside target of £4,500.
The wedge, price stalling and curvature of the price action up to the wedge, tells that there is a possibility for a rejection from a recovering bull market and into a financial recession. Fundamental data will appropriately explain and show which direction the FTSE takes.
Personally neutral on this, both are likely in my playbook - however I think there's more reason for recovery and continuation upwards because of geopolitics more than technical analysis.
Ultra Electronics - Attack the best form of defence?Buy Ultra Electronics (ULE.L)
Ultra Electronics Holdings plc provides solutions and products in the defense and aerospace, security and cyber, transport and energy markets, by applying electronic and software technologies. The Company operates in three segments: Aerospace & Infrastructure, Communications & Security, and Maritime & Land. Its market facing segments are Aerospace, Infrastructure, Nuclear, Communications, C2ISR, Maritime, Land and Underwater Warfare.
Market Cap: £4.79Billion
The medium-term trend is bullish on Ultra Electronics. The shares have consolidated in recent weeks, forming an ending wedge pattern on the daily chart. The break above the upper boundary of the wedge is a bullish signal. We expect to see further upside over the coming weeks and months with a move towards new highs.
Stop: 1830p
Target 1: 2290p
Target 2: 2350p
Target 3: 2500p
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Hikma Pharmaceuticals - Injecting some bullish momentum.Buy Hikma Pharmaceuticals (HIK.L)
Hikma Pharmaceuticals PLC develops, manufactures, and markets pharmaceutical products. The Company offers branded and non-branded generic and in-licensed pharmaceutical products. Hikma Pharmaceuticals serves customers worldwide.
Market Cap: £4.79Billion
The long-term trend on Hikma remains bullish. The corrective move lower in recent weeks has found some support at the 38.2% Fibonacci level. The posting of a bullish engulfing candle while simultaneously breaking from a wedge pattern is bullish for short term sentiment. Further upside is expected from here, targeting the previous highs at 2345p from 15th March 2017.
Stop: 1920p
Target 1: 2210p
Target 2: 2345p
Target 3: 2400p
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FTSE100: Double Buy Target.The index has broken above both the 1D MA50 and MA200 this week and 1D turned bullish (RSI = 57.795, MACD = 3.690, Highs/Lows = 85.3366) towards the 7,440 Resistance. It appears to be repeating the April - July sequence, currently being at the start of the final (and most aggressive) bullish leg. The obvious short term target is the 7,440 Resistance but in our opinion, and with the 1D RSI potential, if the 1D candle that breaks the Resistance closes above that level, we can extend the uptrend as high as 7,620.
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Compass Group - Buying the dip to the long term trend line.Buy Compass Group (CPG.L)
Compass Group PLC provides food and support services. The Company's segments include North America, Europe, Rest of World and Central activities. The Europe segment includes Turkey and Russia. The Rest of World segment includes Japan. The Company delivers services in sectors, including business and industry; healthcare and seniors; education; defense, offshore and remote, and sports and leisure.
Market Cap: £31.19Billion
Compass is trading in a fantastic long-term uptrend and this is showing no signs of stopping. The latest correction appears to have found some buying support at the long-term trend line. We expect the shares to rally towards the upper end of the corrective channel before eventually breaking higher towards new highs.
Stop: 1890p
Target 1: 2050p
Target 2: 2145p
Target 3: 2250p
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