FTSE
There's No Exit in #BrexitWith the Brexit referendum vote on Thursday (6/23), markets are still volatile and uncertain with whether or not British voters will decide on leaving the European Union. As the Brexit polls began indicating that the "leave" vote began leading into this week on gaining momentum, the perplexed media were at odds on how to exactly explain the "phenomena."
First, one must realize that the "leave" component is similar to many political coups that have happened across the global in recent years: those feeling the most economically and politically disenfranchised. Over 50 percent of the "leave" vote, currently polling, are poorer Brits who are less educated and work middle-class working jobs. Conversely, the "remain" vote is primarily those well-off in society and have higher levels of education. It comes down to voting on pure establishment politics.
(We are witnessing the very same thing in the U.S. Presidential Campaign with Donald Trump supporters).
There's no exit in Brexit . The political elite simply will not allow ties to the European Union to be severed. The OECD, Int'l Monetary Fund, World Bank, as well as standing British politicians, embarked on fear-mongering tactics and courted disastrous results to a Brexit vote. Even President Obama hit peak audacity to pen an op-ed telling what the Brits should do. (After all, the political scaffolding depends on it).
No serious analyst would stay there are not intermediate negatives to cutting away from the European Union. However, it would allow Britain to develop economical policies and trade agreements that are in the nation's self-interest and not European bureaucrats. Switzerland, for example, trades directly with the European Union but is not bogged down by member-state regulations.
MacroView does not believe Britain will separate even if there was to be a Brexit vote. The vote will be recast or ignored, and there is clear evidence to support this. In 2005, both France and Netherlands voted against the Union Constitution and the vote was ignored. Ireland voted against the Nice Treaty, and the vote was recast. As early as last year, Greece voted against the Euro Bailout and that was ignored.
What is most troubling is the risk of a Brexit vote, whether ignored or the seldom chance of acceptance. If ignored, it would only fuel political angst against the establishment. It could even spread across the pond.
Check out Bloomberg's Brexit tracker , currently showing a small Brexit lead.
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FTSE100 240 min Chart 2 options.If Resistance of 6079 is broken, i think will go up. If next candle is bearish on 6052 i think will test 5900 again.
FTSE SHORT OVER BREXIT FEARS DAILY +300 PIP POTENTIALSimple and accurate chart analysis.
As fears over brexit rise so does this index being obviously linked to the British economy this index is likely to continue to fall as expected due to growing concerns as we can also see in the major currency pairs closely linked to the British economy.
Trend line break long with a break of the yearly critical level confirming my short.
BUY STAWKS (Part 2)Global stocks bounced as expected. Higher highs on their way.
SPX - 2150 / 2160
DAX - 10380 / 1399
FTSE100 - forming inverse head and shoulder necklineThe index currently trades around 6280. A 150-point move to inverse head and shoulder could happen in a single day. However, watch out for a failure at the neckline, especially ahead of Brexit referendum.
FTSE 100 - Is the index heading to 5300Monthly chart - Bullish Cypher in the making
All Cypher conditions appear to have been met. The D leg appears to have begun in April last year. (high of 7127 levels)
The 78.6% retracement comes to around 5284. The level almost coincides with 50% Fibo of 2009 low-2015 high level which comes around 5294. A break below 1.1196 preferably on day end closing basis would signal the downtrend from the high of 1.1616 has resumed.
FTSE outlookResistance – 6200, 6244, 6311
Support – 6119, 6050, 6000
FTSE’s rebound from 6119 (38.2% of Apr 2015 high-Feb 2016 low) if followed by a day end closing today above daily 200-SMA of 6149 would signal short-term bearish invalidation and open doors for a rise to 6208 (23.6% of Feb low-Apr high).
On the lower side, rejection at daily 200-SMA followed by a break below 6050 (Thursday’s low) would signal continuation of retreat from April high and expose 5950 levels.
FTSE 100 outlook –Awaits range breakoutResistance – 6161, 6200, 6237
Support – 6077, 6036.70, 6000
FTSE finds itself stuck between a range marked by daily 200-SMA and daily 100-SMA.
Prices have failed to see a daily close above/below the respective average levels since 5th May.
The said range today is 6161-6077. The lower end of the range almost coincides with 38.2% of Feb low – April high). As of now, waiting on the sidelines is advisable. Downside break on the daily closing basis would indicate the sell-off from the recent top of 6427 level has resumed
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FTSE 100 outlook – bears would cheer day end close below 6061Resistance – 6100, 6163, 6200
Support – 6061, 6036.70, 6000
FTSE’s failure to take out weekly 200-MA in late April followed by a sell-off and drop below daily 200-SMA restricted the buying interest this week.
We also saw a failure to take out daily 200-SMA hurdle yesterday followed by a bearish move today. The entire price action suggests bears are in control and may gain more strength if prices see a day end closing below 6061, in which case psychological support at 6000 could be put to test next week.
Note the falling top formation on daily chat and RSI at 36.00, which indicate room for further downside. Short-term bearish invalidation is seen only above daily 200-SMA level.
FTSE outlookSupport – 6119, 6082, 6054
Resistance – 6176, 6216, 6245
Failure to sustain above 5-SMA at 6136 followed by drop below daily low of 6125 would open doors for a re-test of critical support at 6082 (100-SMA). On the higher side, strong hurdle is noted at 6176 (200-SMA).
On larger scheme of things, bears appear in control given the index is trading below 200-SMA. Bearish invalidation is seen if index closes above 200-SMA, while bulls would come back if prices re-enter rising channel.
FTSE drops to 100-SMA as anticipatedSupport – 6061.85, 6036.70, 5933.23
Resistance – 6100, 6178, 6200
Following a breach of rising trend line earlier this week, FTSE has steadily extended losses below 200-DMA to test 6080 (100-SMA today).
Daily RSI, at 35.00, shows there room for further downside move.
Traders should watch out for a daily close below 6036.70, as it would open doors for cut through buyers around psychological figure of 6000.
Short-term loss of momentum and sideways action cannot be ruled out as well.
Bearish invalidation is seen only above 200-DMA level.
