FTSE 31st MAY 2022OANDA:UK100GBP have no power to breakout above the highest resistance area Aug 2019 - Jan 2020. Last month UK100 was bearish to the diagonal trendline support, and returned to the horizontal resistance area . However, at the end of 2021 there was a bearish divergence signal. where the price is bullish but the flat indicator value tends to bearish.
Bearish potential on the UK100 Weekly, Check this out :
UK100 Weekly
Timeframe. According to the stochastic 5 3 3, it seems to be back in the overbought area, it will be strengthened to bearish if the indicator crossover.
Ftse100
FTSE100 One of the best index buysThe FTSE100 index is approaching its 2022, a rare feat among the leading global stock indices, the majority of which are making Lower Lows. This strength is technically derived by the bullish dynamics of the Fibonacci Channel Up it has been trading in since 2021, which only broke during March's correction.
The price action since April 10 is similar to the sequence of August 11 - October 11 2021. The bottom on both pattern was made after the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) broke. The latter sequence went on to make a Higher High on the 1.382 Fibonacci extension. That extension on the current pattern is around 7860 and that is our Target by July.
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BARCLAYS - Clear As Day - Buy @163p
REASONS TO BE BULLISH
Technical - Recently broke out of a 15 year pennant pattern and just retested for support.
Technical - Recently crossed and reclaimed the 50 MA.
Technical - MA 50 looking like it may cross the 100 and 200 in future months.
Technical - RSI is in the bull zone (bouncing off its base).
Technical - A 155p entry was triggered when reclaimed MA and RSI bull-zone on the same candle. We're now at almost the same level.
Technical - All-time high was back in 2007. This stock hasn't been touched in 15 years and is now winding-up to revisit the top of the upwards slanting trend-line.
Technical - Looks like wave 1 of a 5-wave move is complete/near completion.
Fundamentals - Price to earnings is just 4.7. Barclays is looking like incredible value right now. Net earnings up 275% for the year.
Fundamentals - Dividend yield is ~4% - not to be sniffed at all in this environment - they may even increase this given how profitable banking with current accounts may turn out to be if the BOE base rate continues to increase.
Fundamentals - Implied volatility in the options market is increasing, and it seems like some big players may be eyeing-up Barclays for a big position (likely long but perhaps short).
Fundamentals - Less exposed to the U.K. than some of its counterparts (like Lloyds). With U.S. and India appearing in their Top 4 countries in terms of investment.
Target 1 - First target would be reaching the underside of the purple channel once more at 260p or £2.60. A 60% move off todays prices.
Target 2 - Next profit target would be 750p or £7.50 (a 4.6x move). That could be attainable fairly quickly in the next decade on current trajectory. I don't normally like to post timescales but I am curious to see how this one plays out.
Target 3 - The white top line coincides with the 2.272 and 2.414 fib extension (from Mar20 to Mar22). This generates an ultimate price target of between £10.50 (1050p) and £17.30 (1730p). This matches with the extension from the height of the pennant (top to bottom) also.
REASONS TO BE BEARISH
Technical - Below the purple bear channel and not showing signs yet of being an 'exponential' candidate.
Technical - Stop loss will be 140p at the prior low - representing a 12.5% risk.
Technical - Only recently broke out of the pennant pattern. Could still reverse from here.
Fundamentals - Inflation is not usually too good for growth and banks, with costs increasing as well as profits from interest rates.
Fundamentals - With interest rates increasing you'd anticipate that defaults and leverage will unwind in other economies and wreak havoc. Perhaps Barclays have repaired their balance sheet in the last 15 years or perhaps the UK government will continue to backstop, but current market conditions don't make for pretty reading.
SUMMARY
Buying Barclays here seems like a no-brainer here. Significant dividends in a stagflationary environment cannot be ignored. Neither can we ignore a reasonably priced stock in 2022, as well as a successful backtest of multiple breakouts on our indicators/TA. Time to keep an eye on this one.
SSE - So Simple & Easy - BUY @£1,766REASONS TO BE BULLISH
Technical - Recently broke all-time high from 2007 - 15 yes FIFTEEN years ago!
Technical - Crossed the 50 MA some weeks back and just reclaimed the top of the purple channel. Holding there at support. A great time to reload.
Technical - 50, 100 and 200 MAs all the right way around now, after crossing back in October 2020.
Technical - Back in 2019, we had a double-threshold break. Crossing the 50 MA and entering the RSI bull zone on the same candle - my favourite type of entry. it has already back-tested that move.
Fundamental - Providing a dividend of 4.6% in a stagflationary environment, SSE is not to be sniffed at. 29 years of consistent dividends too!
Fundamental - Furthermore, demand from UK households is not receding from here. Same for sustainable energy & ESG investment.
Fundamental - Price to earnings is reasonable at ~7.6, unlike many other companies on the market.
Fundamental - SSE's standard mix has 55% renewables, with 40% from natural gas. The average UK provider offers 40% renewable, 38% gas and 16% nuclear. They're one of the best in a bad worldwide bunch.
Targets - Initial target would be a 200% move to £3,300. Should the energy really be 'cooking on gas', we may see it reach the £5-10k top channel (in green) after the coming 5 years.
Targets - Any pullback to the 50 EMA is to be bought (~£1,475 and rising).
WHAT COULD BE BEARISH
Fundamental - Sold off on news of a potential windfall tax on oil & gas producers. As of today, I would rate the chances of that passing or affecting SSE as unlikely, despite the political pressure. Even if implemented, it is perhaps more likely to stunt BP and Shell's progress than a "greener" company like SSE.
Fundamental - Businesses like SSE are needed to support households and also shift to a greener future - being one of the biggest investors in green energy in the country. Unless those in charge wish to undo all their promises in recent years, I'd rate the chances of this impacting SSE as low.
Technical - Down nearly 8% for the day and with other more risky assets selling-off, SSE may still stutter (even if downside limited from here).
Technical - Stop loss would be £1,285 which would create a new low and a 27% decline
SUMMARY
Overall, this seems like one of the biggest no-brainer investments out there. Relatively low-risk, relatively high-reward.
Dividend - Check. ESG - Check. Inflation-proof - Check. Value - Check. New ATH - Check.
Absolutely long-term bullish on SSE, although I expect a a few weeks of sideways action to settle on top of the prior all-time high to call it support. Today SSE is a solid purchase and I expect will remain a good time to begin a position, inspite of the market & political risks identified above. Let's keep an eye on this one in the years ahead. Thanks for reading!
UK inflation rise to 9% despite 4 rate hikesUK facing high inflation and it breaking 40 years record, BOE rises 4 rate hike in row but price not going down. Even UK economy is different from US but we see FTSE100 did same like US markets in 2020 -35%, 2008 -48%, 2001 -52%.
It's clearly not investment season and stocks like WMT, TGT also dropped badly other side bonds dropping. We can not say Cash is Trash in this season. I think now holding is cash is only best option and we can expect stocks will available more cheap (20% to 30%) in 2 to 3 months.
UK100 12th MAY 2022Bullish potential on the OANDA:UK100GBP Daily Timeframe , The price have no power to breakout below the support area Aug 2019 - Jan 2020.
Last month UK100 was bearish to the diagonal trendline support, and returned to the horizontal resistance area . However, at the end of 2021 there was a bearish divergence signal. where the price is bullish but the flat indicator value tends to bearish .
UK100 4th APRIL 2022
Nasdaq Analysis Hi Everyone.
We have been watching the recent market sink and for nasdaq this is not over yet. Im sure we will see further move down. Right now the market is in consolidation and we need a break of 12143 for the bears to continue. If we get a break of 12143 then nothing can stop it from reaching 11000 area. I feel like we will reach 11000 this month. For short term price can bounce of 12143 area and go back to the area of resistance at 12554 before pushing back down.
UKX Also In The Crosshair, Move To Crypto!The UKX, FTSE 100 Index, is also in the red.
This is the main index for the top 100 companies by capitalization in the UK.
We see prices going below EMA50 after a lower high. (Feb. vs Apr.)
Going below EMA50 is always bad news.
Since we have a lower high after the EMA300/100 bounce, this can lead to a lower low.
The next target on this drop should be around 6600 and 6250...
It can go lower but it will recover only after a long term after this low.
(Apr. 22) UKX Lower High
Thank you for reading.
Namaste.
UK100 Index Intraday Analysis:UK100 loss all of its gains after the announcement of negative non farm productivity. UK100 took rejection form 7617. My target is support of 7461.
If you like this or if you think the opposite of this or if there is any other opinion, mention it in the comments. I am open to all kind of suggestions and critics
Why I shorted FTSE 1000 upon market openThis is the first time I traded FTSE. I used the same theory as trading FX and here is what I saw.
1) The high of last week was present at 7581
2) There was a nice harmonic pattern to sell
3) M15, M30 and H1 divergence in place.
The pair is now oversold. I have taken half the profit out after learning a tough lesson from the last 3 trades :). Switched to breakeven and hoping for a bigger drop.
04/05/22 DEAL FTSE 100 Cash (SD1) SD SD30.10
Funds: SD10,243.03
Major Indexes are resilient but may be due to selloffThe world is focused on the US indexes which have recently broken down out of the uptrend. The question is now whether there is more downside to come which could turn into a major selloff after such a big Fed Fueled pandemic rally. I take a look at the price action and major levels of the Key Indexes.
In the US - DOW, SP500 and Nasdaq
Europe - DAX, FTSE and Eurostoxx
ASIA - ASX200, Hang Seng and Nikkei
Remember to take a look at my profile and follow for more content and analysis.
UK100: A Great Buy Setup from the Long-term Uptrend Line UK100 has recently touched its long-term uptrend line, bounced up twice from the line and formed a potential double bottom pattern. We can see that price has touched this uptrend line many times in the past and then reversed by forming reversal patterns. Therefore, we will be looking for buy opportunities at this stage.
Our task now is to wait for a neckline breakout of the double bottom, which is the criteria for a reversal. Once price breaks the neckline, we will put buy limit orders at the neckline to capture the pullback. Our first target is the previous high from where the price has fallen, which is the 7650 level. We can see from the past reversals that when price jumped from the trend line, they all retraced back to the previous high.
FTSE UK100 could go downWe have not very good situation with inflation
Still there is a war
All major indexies had bigger corrections but uk100 has not
and of course we are going up and hitting to ATH resistance soon
so in my opinion the price could drop a little bit 2-4% to the downside.
we will see, it's not a recomendation but I'm curious what do You think. It here any other 'someone' who is shortin this index? hm.. ?
UK100 (FTSE100) Short Hellooooooo PIPIN TRADERS. This is one of the trades I will be looking at for the next few days before I post another update/analysis on this index, RISK TO REWARD 1:4
UK100 to downside target 7480 Looking for the short setup on the H1 or M15 - seeking bearish PA confirmation aiming to the downside target of 7480. Management target around 7540.
FTSE100 - UKX - WHERE TO NEXT?FTSE100 - Where to next?
Technical pattern break out to either direction!
It's been my favourite trade since 2019. However, it does look a little overextended but let's see which way it breaks out towards and that's trade I will be taking short term
Don't forget - Follow your trade plan!
Trade Journal
$FTSE downisde revrsal Just when it reached the high again, $FTSE violently reversed the upside and is breaking below the rising wedge and all the downsie resistances established lately. From here I am not seeing any breaks till 7400
FTSE UK100:FUNDAMENTAL+TECHNICAL ANALYSIS|LONG SETUP ⭐️FTSE 100 remains green but pegged back by Next disappointment, US markets open higher
US stocks open higher but the positive US tech sentiment isn't global
FTSE 100 up 11 points at 7,471
Sunak holds back £32bn 'war chest' claim
P&O boss may accept bonuses despite mass and immoral sacking
As expected, US stocks opened slightly higher, rebounding from some of the losses they have taken over the last few days.
The Dow Jones was up 186 points, or 0.54% to 34,544, while the tech-laden Nasdaq gained 0.28%, climbing 38 points to 13,960.
S&P 500 was inched 0.55%, rising 24 points to 4,480.
The Nasdaq’s positive start has done little for the Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust, however, which continued to fall in afternoon trading.
The trust was down 2.80%, changing hands at 997p, offsetting some of the gains made over the last week or so.
Positive tech sentiment in the US isn’t echoed globally, with Hang Seng down 0.94% to 21,945 points, a 208 point decline.
2.19pm: One month since Russia invaded Ukraine
A month on from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, stocks market globally are generally better off than just before the invasion, which shouldn’t come as a surprise according to Lee Wild, head of equity strategy at interactive investor.
Footsie has regained most of its losses, and is only 20 points behind the close on 23 February, the night before the invasion began, having fallen as low as 6,959 in the week after war broke out.
Over in America, the Dow Jones is up nearly 2.38% or roughly 2,600 points over the same period.
“If anyone doubted the resilience of stock markets, the past month has demonstrated just how quickly they are able to overcome the impact of shocking events, and this can be uncomfortable for some.”
“History proves this to be the case over the long term. Just look at stock markets over the past 100 years. World Wars, pandemics, terrorism, and financial crashes have been brushed aside. Why would massive economic sanctions and threat of nuclear war in 2022 be any different?”
1.51pm: Calls for crypto regulation
The Bank of England urged for tighter cryptocurrency regulation on worries of the potential detrimental impact it could have on global financial markets.
Its Financial Policy Committee insisted the regulators of the £1.3tn digital currency market must grow and become more coordinated.
Deputy governor Sam Woods wrote to several lenders to flag up that crypto long-term regulation would need to be significantly altered to prevent threats to worldwide economic stability.
It also said it will advise the Treasury on how best to oversee digital assets – something beyond the realms of the Financial Conduct Authority.
1.20pm: British Airways owner and Wizz Air retreat on Deutsche Bank downgrade
International Consolidated Airlines Group (LSE:IAG) SA, owner of British Airways, fell 3.1% on Deutsche Bank’s downgrade of its stock from a ‘buy’ recommendation to ‘hold.’
Wizz Air Holdings PLC (AIM:WIZZ), which is not FTSE 100-listed but also received the same demotion, retreated 2.6% and had its price target slashed to 2,900p from 5,450p – still a 16% premium on Thursday afternoon’s share price though.
The German-based investment bank also lowered easyJet PLC’s target to 570p from 680p, which caused a 1.1% drop in its share price.
12.47pm: FTSE remains stagnant
The FTSE 100 remained relatively flat, up 10 points to 7,469, as the Budget reaction continued to flood in and Russia opened its stock market, for limited trading, for the first time since it invaded Ukraine.
Mexican-based gold and silver miner, Fresnillo PLC (LSE:FRES), led the risers - up 3.3% - while global investment manager M&G PLC (LSE:MNG) was close behind with a 2.7% climb.
Shell PLC (LSE:SHEL, NYSE:SHEL) and BP PLC (LSE:BP.) continued to advance, 0.6% and 0.8% respectively, following Rishi Sunak’s Wednesday announcement of a record 5p fuel duty slash to alleviate soaring prices.
Meanwhile, British Airways owner International Consolidated Airlines fell 3.31% to 134p, with Schroders PLC (LSE:SDR) also down about 3%, with share changing hands at 3,125p in afternoon trading.
12.16pm: US preview
US stocks look set to open higher on Thursday, rebounding from losses in recent days, though gains are likely to be capped amid ongoing worries over high oil and commodity prices and as investors look toward US weekly jobless figures and manufacturing data.
Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average were up 0.5% on Thursday, while those for the S&P 500 added 0.6% and contracts for the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 rose 0.7%.
Among commodities, international benchmark Brent crude added 0.3% to $118.09 a barrel, while gold gained 0.4% to $1,945.30 a troy ounce.
US major averages took a breather on Wednesday as concerns over the war in Ukraine and its impact on oil prices, and economic uncertainty at home continue to undermine investor sentiment.
‘’There is little sign the pedal is coming off the accelerator for energy prices amid a fresh round of volatility that has hit markets after Russia moved to retaliate in the economic war being waged,” said Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.
In a tit-for-tat move, Moscow announced yesterday that it will only accept payment for its exports in roubles after its foreign currency reserves were frozen.
“This (Russia’s move) has sent European futures surging and the fear is that this move would deepen the energy crisis and clog agreements worth hundreds of millions of euros every day. In simple words, we are likely to see higher energy prices which means more inflation and gold traders are watching that closely,” said Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at AvaTrade.
Economic data due out later will keep investors sidelined, Aslam added, forecasting weekly jobless claims at around 210,000 and US durable goods orders down by 0.5%.
“Investors are (also) keeping a close watch on the NATO's emergency meeting. President Joe Biden is traveling to Europe to increase pressure on Russia and provide support for a ceasefire,” he concluded.
11.45am: P&O boss may accept bonuses despite mass and immoral sacking
P&O boss Peter Hebblethwaite admitted he receives a £325,000 base salary per year and is in contention for two bonus schemes, which he was undecided on whether to accept.
When questioned on bonuses by MPs following the company’s mass sacking of 800 employees without any notice, Hebblethwaite commented "I can't tell you how far that is from my thoughts."
"I don't know the answer to that. I don't know," he added, which brought uproar on the potential of his acceptance of possible bonuses.
He also admitted that the company’s average hourly pay for new workers is £5.15 an hour, and when asked if he could survive on that, he failed to respond.
Hebblethwaite said it did not consult unions as the company knew they would not approve the sackings.
11.10am: Barratt, Berkeley and Persimmon fall as they're urged to fund cladding repair
Housebuilders Barratt Developments PLC (LSE:BDEV), Berkeley Group Holdings PLC (LSE:BKG) and Persimmon PLC (LSE:PSN) are all down today as one of the city’s largest investment firms call on them to fund the cladding repair.
According to Sky News, a letter from abrdn to the Footsie listed companies said it wanted them to “carefully consider providing additional financing for all affected buildings built by in the last 30 years, regardless of their height or current ownership, in order to accelerate remediation work to remove the burden on leaseholders".
Pressure from the investment company adds to comments made by Michael Gove earlier this year, who wanted the industry to pay £4bn to repair the properties across the country that required improved cladding.
A paper commissioned by PwC earlier this month, however, estimated the bill to come in at less than £1bn which boosted the property developers at the time.
The report also noted that the government and private companies would be expected to chip in, with the former to contribute because of regulatory failing that allowed the housebuilders to cut corners in the name of profits in the first place.
Barratt is down 1.12% to 530p, Berkeley is down 0.58% to 3,960p and Persimmon is down 0.31% to 2,220p.
10.38am: Shell to invest in green energy
Shell PLC (LSE:SHEL, NYSE:SHEL) rose 1% on news that it intends to plough £25bn into UK energy over the next decade, with 75% of that on low-carbon products including hydrogen and offshore wind.
"These investments, subject to board approval, aim to propel the UK closer to net-zero and help to ensure security of supply whilst stimulating economic growth and jobs," David Bunch, Shell UK country chairperson, said.
He added that it will need “stable political discourse” and urgency from the government to accelerate the shift away from non-renewable energy sources.
This came following the company’s decision to sever ties with Russia, via its vows to stop buying the country’s oil, offload its Rosneft (LSE:ROSN) stake and end its Gazprom joint venture, following its invasion of Ukraine.
10.05am: UK sanctions 65 more elite Russian individuals and businesses
The UK foreign secretary announced a further 65 sanctions on Russian individuals and businesses, targeting strategic industries, banks and business elites.
According to a statement, the sanctions “target key industries supporting Russia’s illegal invasion, including Russian Railways and defence company Kronshtadt, the main producer of Russian drones.”
“Six more banks are targeted, including Alfa Bank whose cofounders include previously sanctioned oligarchs Mikhail Fridman, Petr Aven and German Khan. The world’s largest diamond producer Alrosa is also sanctioned.”
“Individuals sanctioned include the billionaire oil tycoon Eugene Shvidler, and Galina Danilchenko, who was installed by Russia as the ‘mayor’ of Melitopol is also sanctioned - the first time an individual has been sanctioned for collaboration with Russian forces currently in Ukraine.”
Foreign secretary Liz Truss said “All those sanctioned today will have their assets in the UK frozen which means no UK citizen or company can do business with them, and individuals subject to travel bans are also prohibited from travelling to or from the UK.”
“Today’s sanctions will bring the total global asset value of the banks the UK has sanctioned since the invasion to £500bn and the net worth of the oligarchs and family members in excess of £150bn.”
9.45am: Oil stocks lead Footsie
Footsie continue to trade healthily led by oil stocks after the crude price headed up towards US$120 barrel overnight. Results were mixed though private equity firm Bridgepoint was an early riser on its results.
Shares have been disappointing performers since its float but perked up 12% today as revenues rose by 41% and underlying profits by 72%.
The group’s main private equity funds committed €1.9bn to new investments and returned €2.9bn to its fund investors.
FTSE 100 up 21 at 7,482.
08:40:Footsie heads higher
The FTSE 100 was nudged higher in early trade on Thursday, though it was being put in the shade by the stock market in Moscow, which leapt higher after being closed for a month.
One month on from Russia's invasion of Ukraine the siege continues, with world leaders today convening for emergency summits of Nato, EU and European Council.
Moscow marked the passing of the month with the reopening of its stock market, which fell 45% on the first day of the invasion before being shutters, and was up 10% in early trade today, with a ban on short-selling and Russian brokerages also banned from allowing foreign clients sell securities.
Back in London, blue-chip shares had less support, but the Foosie was up 22 points or 0.3% to 7,483.
Top of the leaderboard were precious metals miner Fresnillo PLC (LSE:FRES) and drinks bottler Coca-Cola HBC, which has larges exposure to Russia.
Clothes retailer Next PLC (LSE:NXT) was down 3% after cutting it profits and sales forecasts for 2022/23 on the back of the war in Ukraine and slowing growth (read more).
6.32am: Slight rise expected
The FTSE 100 was being called slightly higher before trading got underway with picking over Rishi Sunak’s Budget likely to be the main focus.
Financial spread bet firms had the index up 11 points an hour before trading got underway, but that leaves a lot of time for the mood to change.
BP and Unilever going ex-dividend will also be a drag on the early movements.
The day after the Budget (read more) is often more instructive than the big headlines as economists pore over the detail, which is where the devil normally lies.
Already the Telegraph has pointed out that the chancellor is raising £33bn through an effective stealth tax on students after freezing the level at which their loan repayments begin.
This will help more than pay for the income tax cut planned for 2024 and the rise in national insurance thresholds, added the paper.
Elsewhere, US markets weakened after the hawkish tone of recent statements from Fed chair Jerome Powell concerning interest rates.
Asian markets were mixed towards the end of trading with Japan ahead but Hong Kong still overhung by the uncertainty over the Evergrande situation.
FTSE100 Major Resistance Coming up ahead of CPI DATA SHORT I will be looking to take a short based on the following analysis .
FTSE Approaching Major resistance with a HVN *High Volume Node up ahead as well as untapped Monthly and Daily levels .
If this plays out I would expect PA to gravitate down to the 0.618 FIB for a strong level of support
Housing the 9 , 30 , 50 and the 100EMAS all clustered in-between the 0.66 and the 0.618 FIB as well as a SPEED FAN 0.5 crossing through this range 7350.
The Analysis does coincide with some Fundamental data released tomorrow for the UK "CPI DATA YoY " Consumer Price Index in which case
the actual CPI numbers have been higher than forecast spanning the past 18+ months so this could be the precursor for the drop tomorrow with a continuation of that trend.
Please like and follow for regular analysis . Much appreciation
* Left out the EMAs too keep the chart looking clear
SELL UKX FTSE 100A-B and then C coming.
Due to higher inflation than expected,
Higher risk os escalation in Ukraine-Russia with another nations
and big overbought market in the short term
Good opportunity to load shorts