SIMPLE FTSE 1Ha very simple trade to short ftse 100 down on hourly timeframe, overall trend is slightly down on daily. 1h is now facing resistance. so im gunna short it downwards towards target. if ftse continues down expect a stronger GBP.
Ftse100
FTSE 100 MOVING NICELY + 3.7% USING CUSTOM STOCKS STRATEGY UK100 trade made a great move! Let us know if you're in.
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BASED ON 1% RISK YOUR ACCOUNT WOULD BE RUNNING +3.7%
OUR STRATEGY EXPLAINED:
The entry price, SL and multiple TPs are shown on the chart.
Our back testing and money management strategy itself is holding until a reverse signal to ride a big trend, but as you will not see the next signal - manage the trade as you wish should you decide to enter.
What is our strategy?
Our strategy is a trend following strategy, can be used on any instrument and time frame. However, we have hard coded specific parameters for when trading the H1 time frame, so we can back up over 4200 previous trades to confirm our edge from previous data. This gives us confidence in execution and belief in our trading strategy for the long term.
The strategy simply sits in your trading view, so you will see exactly what we see - the trade, entry price, SL and multiple TPs (although we hold until opposite trade as this is the most profitable longer term plan), lot size, etc.
This could be on your phone trading view app, or laptop of course.
The hard work is done, so we have zero chart work time, no analysis, no time front of the chart doing technical analysis - technical analysis is very subjective - you may see different things at different times - how do you have a rigid trading plan on a H&S shoulder pattern? Your daily routine, diet, sleep, exercise can affect what you 'see' and your decision making, this doesn't happen when a strategy is coded like this; what we do have is a mechanical trading strategy...
What does this mean?
It means, we are very clear on our entry and our exit and use strict risk management (this is built in - put in your account size, set your risk in % or fixed amount and it will tell you what lot size to trade!) so we have no ego with our position and we are comfortable with all outcomes - its simply just another trade. This free's our mindset from worry and anxiety as we take confidence from knowing our edge is there and also that we have used sensible risk management.
The strategy itself can be used as a live trading journal too - how cool is that? The strategy will confirm and support every open and closed position - so its quite easy to follow.
We just have to do what Percy does.
Please see our related ideas below for more information to explain what we do and how it can help you.
Why I am buying BTThanks for viewing,
I'm not sure I have the time to include my full reasoning.
- June 2020 reported both revenue and EBITDA down 7% yoy, which is certainly less of a decline than a lot of businesses - and way less than the drop in UK GDP overall.
- Profitability at end of March 2020 was pretty good, and after reporting an interim dividend of ~4.7% (the interim dividend is 30% the size of the final dividend) they halted dividends for the 2020-2021 year. That is quite prudent, and the -7% revenue numbers reported months after that seems to suggest that the hit to profitability will not be too great.
- It is quite hard to get a handle on where we are in the overall correction since 2015, but recently, the share price appears to have completed an identifiable 5 waves (of some degree) that started in October 2018. This suggests we are due at least a correction of some degree (if not a change of trend).
- An ending diagonal has formed since March 2020, this could be a bullish sign. I often see such formations at the bottom of a commodity price cycle.
- There is bullish RSI divergence unfolding - when declining price is displayed as a series of higher lows on the RSI. This, if nothing else shows a slowing of the price trend and is often present before prices change direction.
- www.macroaxis.com (its a secondary source) shows on 31 March 2020 EBITDA isn't that much lower as compared to when BT was at the top of the previous price trend - in 2015-16, when BT was worth over 500 (this was despite a major lease payment over 800m pounds in the prev annual report - which isn't paid every year). So earnings per share have dropped 30% but share price is down 80%? Seems to indicate value to me.
- They will not be paying dividends this year, which I like, it is a good idea in uncertain times. Better to re-emerge strong than to deplete oneself in lean times.
- Based on previous dividends - which are highly stable and reliable - they could be paying and over 15% return - so I expect price to go up in 2020 - early 2021 in expectation of the resumption of dividends.
- Very good dividend coverage ratio - I think only about 30% of EBITDA is distributed as dividends, so even quite large variations in profitability will still allow reinvestment in the business and for dividends to be maintained.
- I think Brexit fears are over-blown. Yes there are a number of stories that BT will lose some European contracts due to Brexit, and even if that happens, this will not represent a sizeable hit to profits.
- PE ratio is 5.67 - value investing normally recommends buying when PE is below 10-15.
- Price to book ratio is 0.66 - so the entire businesses equity and future profit stream are valued at less than 70% of just net assets. Seems to indicate under-valuation - especially for such a high dividend potential equity.
- Despite competition, they provide 37% of broadband and seem to do well against the competition in cellphone coverage.
- People still need their cellphone and Wifi is basically an essential in 21st century, whether you work from home or not. Most of their drop in revenue was due to lower economic activity in general - but the base-line revenue is quite solid.
- If you believe in the "new tech-based economy" (that has resulted in TESLA trading over 1200 times earnings) well Companies like BT will be the foundation of this, providing internet and communications infrastructure.
Medium-term I see the 0.382 fib retracement as a plausible price target at 250 (+200%). If FY 2019-2020 dividends are maintained after next year, that will still allow a 5% dividend to be paid, which is better than the average - currently 4.81% for the FTSE 100. Yahoo finance puts a fair value fr BT at 200 uk.finance.yahoo.com - so 250 isn't "pie in the sky".
Its definitely under-valued - so I will start to average in. Time horizon; buy in within the next 3-6 months and hold for 5+ years.
I guess I did have time lol
Buy FTSEBe very careful taking this trade. I recommend scalping and being especially careful of Boris (I'm pretty sure he is long term shorting the FTSE 😂).
Brexit All you Need to Know about the UK Leaving the EU 🍃📌 Brexit: What happens now?
The UK left the EU on 31 January 2020 and is now in an 11-month transition period.
During this period the UK effectively remains in the EU's customs union and single market and continues to obey EU rules.
However, it is no longer part of the political institutions. So, for example, there are no longer any British MEPs in the European Parliament.
📍 MP's back Boris Johnson's plan
📍 What is Boris Johnson's deal with the EU?
Future trade deal
Negotiations on a trade deal with the EU have been proceeding for several months. The UK wants as much access as possible for its goods and services to the EU.
But the government has made clear that the UK must leave the customs union and single market and end the overall jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice.
Both sides say there a still significant areas of disagreement - for example, on EU proposals for a so-called "level playing field", which would see the UK and EU maintain similar minimum standards on things like workers' rights and environmental protection.
📌 Brexit: What is a level playing field?
The deadline for the two sides to agree an extension to the transition period has now passed.
If no trade deal has been agreed and ratified by the end of the year, then the UK faces the prospect of tariffs on exports to the EU.
The prime minister has argued that as the UK is completely aligned to EU rules, the negotiation should be straightforward. But critics have pointed out that the UK wishes to have the freedom to diverge from EU rules so it can do deals with other countries - and that makes negotiations more difficult.
It's not just a trade deal that needs to be sorted out. The UK must agree how it is going to co-operate with the EU on security and law enforcement. The UK is set to leave the European Arrest Warrant scheme and will have to agree a replacement. It must also agree deals in a number of other areas where co-operation is needed.
It's also important to recognize that major changes will take effect on 1 January 2021 whether or not a trade deal is agreed. Free movement of people will end and businesses trading with the EU will have to follow new rules.
📌 What are the big issues at stake here?
Top of the list is a trade deal to ensure the tariff and quota-free flow of goods between the EU and UK. But the EU will only agree to zero tariffs and zero quotas if the UK pledges zero dumping – that is, not lowering social and environmental standards to outcompete the EU.
Negotiators will almost certainly clash over the EU’s refusal to bring services into the trade deal, leaving the City of London reliant on a patchwork of market access agreements that can be withdrawn at any moment.
Another early fight will be over fish, as the EU seeks to link goods trade to maintaining the status quo on access to British waters, a demand seen as outrageous in London.
The non-trade topics sound easier, but are full of political landmines. For instance, agreeing a replacement for the European arrest warrant will require Germany to change its constitution. The UK will struggle to achieve the historic first of securing outside access to some EU crime-fighting databases.
📌 What will happen to the economy?
It depends who you ask. In the short term, much of the risk seems to have been priced in, at least on currency markets, where sterling still languishes compared to where it was in June 2016. The stock market is well ahead.
📍 Sterling is still down on its pre-Brexit vote position
📍 Shares have rallied recently, partly fueled by greater Brexit certainty
📍 Investment in UK business has fallen behind other G7 countries
Share your Views and comments ideas below to make things more better.
Thank you
GBPJPY - WEEKLY OUTLOOKTechnical:
Daily structure Higher High's & Higher Lows
4hr Descending Channel
Weekly Fib
4hr Fib
4hr 800ema
1hr minor ascending trendline
Weekly support in red
Daily resistance in grey
4hr support in purple
4hr resistance in purple
Buy Entry: Target - Daily resistance & 23.6% 4hr Fib
Break of descending channel
Break of 4hr resistance
Further Buys: Target 61.8% 4hr Fib for usual pullback
Break of 4hr 23.6% Fib
Break of daily resistance
Break of 800ema 4hr
Break of weekly 38.2% Fib
Sell Entry: Target weekly support at the 23.6% weekly fib
Break of ascending trendline
Confirmation of descending channel
Break of 4hr support
Break of previous lows at the 0% Fib
Nasdaq, SPX500, FTSE100, XAU/XAG Ratio#Nasdaq setting up for more downside. #SPX500 could have completed the C leg as its move is equal measured. Although, big picture S&P500 could well correct to the fib 50 of the last wedge down at $2,892 #FTSE has had an extended B leg so I am expecting an extended run up to £6,708 the 618 fibonacci retrace or £6,867 the fibonacci extension. That's what I am expecting next in the #UK100
#Gold is locked in a sideways channel having not even tested the 236 fib or the 21 week EMA which I'm expecting, especially when you consider my last chart the Gold/silver ratio which I am expecting to go all the way to 30 to complete an 10 year double bottom. This would mean a three figure silver price and when you consider silver is $24, I am boldly saying DO NOT BE IN #GOLD, BE IN #SILVER!
THIS IS A CLASSICAL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS. A VERY SOUGHT AFTER SKILL
#trading #bitcoin #forex #btc #ethereum #technicalanalysis #defi #forex #currency #eth #fx #stockmarket #stocks #coinbase #cryptocurrency #blockchain #markets #crypto #gold #silver #preciousmetals
The S&P 500 Index, No More PoliticsWe looked at the S&P 500 Index (SPX) and also took into consideration its potential effect on politics and vice versa... (see related ideas below this post)
Our support has been taken out and the day started red...
Let's have a look at the SPX chart and see what it has to say.
Chart Analysis | SPX Daily (D) @AlanMasters
We now have full bearish indicators for the SPX.
The MACD easily moved below zero and gaining bearish momentum.
The RSI is now below 40 looking weak and with room for more low.
Prices closed below EMA50 easily and the lower trendline is being tested as support.
According to all the chart signals, the SPX is bearish and continue to drop.
We also looked at the Dow Jones (DJI)
And FTSE100 (UKX)
Namaste.
FTSE100 (UKX) Bearish & LowerThe FTSE100 (UKX) looks strongly bearish while aiming lower.
We have multiple signals that support the above...
1) Prices moving below EMA10/21.
2) MACD trading below the zero line and looking weak.
3) The RSI is trending lower yet still good.
4) Bad news for UK with a new lockdown likely taking place.
5) Less political manipulation of the market allows easier for RED to be printed.
The UKX is very likely to continue lower.
Conditions for change
If prices move and close weekly above 6068.1, the above signals are invalidated.
Any trading below EMA21 and we remain strongly bearish.
Remember to hit LIKE!
Namaste.