#UKX ANALYSIS.. FOLLOW THE PATTERN!.. I think that there will be a long-term correction wave in the global markets on a macro scale, in this context, I think we will observe a pattern in #UKX as I mentioned in the chart.. Markets will become very interesting after 3,4 months, we will wait and see..
What I wrote is about strong possibilities that most investors do not express or expect.. Please do your own due diligence when it comes to trading.. Invest at your own risk..
I wish you all the best..
Ftse100
FTSE - Selling a re-test of the broken channel UK100 is Bearish - We look to Sell at 5933
▪️ Broken out of the channel formation to the downside.
▪️ We have a 50% Fibonacci pullback level of 5936 from 6209 to 5665.
▪️ Positive overnight flows lead to an expectation of a firm open this morning.
▪️ Further downside is expected although we prefer to set shorts at our bespoke resistance levels at 5933, resulting in improved risk/reward.
▪️ Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile.
Stop: 5983
Target1: 5665
Target2: 5627
The FTSE 100 Holding At SupportThe FTSE 100 has been held up by a strong level of support over the past couple of months.
February 2016 created a low at 5499 which was retested in March and April 2020 and going into
May, we want to see momentum to the upside.
Identifying major levels of support in advance is very useful because it will give you an objective
view of the markets, it also prepares you in advance for potential opportunities.
In this case, we will be getting ready for shorting opportunities if price decides to trade below 5499.
If price remains above support and begins to rise then we can prepare for long opportunities.
Price is still below the daily 200 simple moving average (not shown) and we want to see price move
above it, but ultimately we want to see price break above the current all-time high at 7903 before
looking for long opportunities.
For now, we will continue to stand aside from entering positions in stocks while we preserve our capital.
See below for more information on our trading techniques.
As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
UK100 - Correction May Not Be Over Just YetThere's an interesting battle building up in the FTSE 100 (UK100), after which we should have a much better idea of whether this rebound has legs or they're going to be sweeped from underneath it.
The charts were starting to look quite promising. We had a clear uptrend and price broke back above the 200/233 period simple moving average band on the 4-hour chart.
Then we ran into our first obstacle on the daily chart, the 55-day SMA, which is when the profit taking kicked in. This took us back below the 55/89 SMA band on the 4-hour chart where we're now testing the 200/233 band.
So far, the 38.2 fib is holding within the first band but that doesn't mean much yet. A break back through 5,800 would add some promise, especially if combined with a significant close above the 55/89 SMA band (4 hour chart). Obviously, that doesn't necessarily been it's correction over but it's a major hurdle overcome.
Given the initial trend line break, failure of 55-SMA (daily) and immediate resistance around the 55/89 SMA (4hour) band, I fear more pain may be in store for the FTSE.
This still looks like more of a corrective move but maybe one that has a little more to run. The area around the 50 and 61.8 fibs may appeal more, should the 38.2 fib and 200/233 band fall.
FTSE has broken out of a channel - Looking to sell a re-test. UK100 is Bearish - We look to Sell at 5867
▪️ Broken out of the channel formation to the downside.
▪️ We have a 38.2% Fibonacci pullback level of 5872 from 6209 to 5664.
▪️ Negative overnight flows lead to an expectation of a weaker open this morning.
▪️ Further downside is expected although we prefer to set shorts at our bespoke resistance levels at 5867, resulting in improved risk/reward.
▪️ Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile.
Stop: 5917
Target1: 5637
Target2: 5530
Is there a PERFECT STORM on the horizon for BTC??! 🌪🚀I see too many "coincidences" happening right now".
The narrative.... COVID-19 is the catalyst which has thrown the world into chaos. Everyone is in lockdown, unemployment numbers have soared and huge drops in the market happened across the board during February and March. Bitcoin dropped too, shaking a lot of weak hands out but surprise surprise it's back, just zoom out and look at the monthly close for April. The S&P500 and the FTSE100 could be poised for more downside (more about that below). Oh and the Bitcoin halving is later this month, which if going by the last 2 halving events means it's likely to go up (eventually). Basic economic supply and demand usually dictates the more scarce a resource is, the more valuable it becomes. What I see on the technical side...
BTC - I don't trade BTC, I just buy and hold, but I see price bounced nicely off that long term ascending trendline after spiking just below. Also, that higher time frame descending reversal channel looks to have completed at the same area of confluence. Like I said, I don't trade BTC but I would trade that pattern on a forex pair.
S&P500 - looks to have bounced back to the upside on the HTFs. But on the 4H and 1H I see a clear ascending channel within a larger ascending channel breaking the recent highs correctively, catching people on the wrong side. Now an impulsive leg looks set to kick in, if a bear flag forms moving into next week it would increase that likelihood.
FOOTSIE100 - again looks to have reversed to upside on HTFs but this has been very corrective on lower time frames. See one of my previous posts as to why I was looking short last week. Price broke impulsively up out of the ascending wedge pattern appearing bullish and immediately reversed at the end of last week with bearish momentum on all time frames. Again, this looks set to continue, I'll be looking for a bear flag to go short.
All this right around the time a recession is due every 10 years or so...coincidence?!
FTSE 100 Bear Flag (Updated)I'd like to refine my past post on the FTSE 100 Bear Flag - to give it a bit more strength.
There's a key level of support (now resistance) in white. This is a right-angled descending broadening wedge that's been forming since Feb 2017.
The white support of this pattern neatly intersects with the blue colour Bear Flag as of April 29 (Today)
I think this adds a little more to my conviction that this uptrend has hit the end of the road.
Adrian
Bear Flag (FTSE 100) UKX - And Hopefully Not A Triangle!?There are many suggestions that we're seeing an ascending triangle (with a confirmed breakout) on the UKX.
The white horizontal line shows the resistance of the Triangle.
Something just didn't feel right for me on that pattern - particularly the 'breakout' which seemed muted and weak considering this multi-week build up.
Instead I'm suggest a bearish flag in blue, which is more common in bear markets.
If correct - that would suggest an aggressive move to the downside, way below the support, in the coming week.
For now I'm holding onto my short.
Keen to hear your thoughts!
UK100 - Breakout Imminent?Recent price action in the FTSE 100 has certainly been encouraging but it may be a little early to celebrate.
The pull back a couple of weeks ago was very brief and never really gathered any momentum. Moreover, broadly speaking price never held below the 55/89 simple moving average band on the 4-hour chart, which could be viewed as bullish.
Since then we've seen a series of higher lows and the index has broken and held above the 200/233 SMA band, another bullish signal, as it's traded below here since 20 January - surviving a few tests along the way - and we all know what followed then.
If the index can break 6,000 then any hope of a test of 5,450 - 50% retracement of lows to April highs - may well be lost and the bullish buzz may once again kick in.
This is a huge earnings week for the US, the next 48 hours or so of which will be pivotal. If stock markets can get through that unscathed, even encouraged, it could be the catalyst for another strong rally, with 6,200 being the next test but 6,500 the next key level.
FTSE Triangle pattern breakout oportunityOANDA:UK100GBP [/symbol Triangle breakout opportunity
several indications on eminent breakout
- Last two weeks candles closed bearish hanging man
- Seems like we finaly reached the end of this triangle patter build up
- Macd divergency
- RSI divergency
it can go either way but the last two week candles combined with the MACD & RSI divergencies indicate a possible breakout on the short side.
The fundamentals are also no good so we have a good oportunity here to set up our shorts long.
Strategy:
- wait for confirmation of the breakout and possibly a retest
- Place small position for long target Profit2
- Place a normal position aiming the Profit1 target
UK100 - Late Rally Changes Nothing (Yet)We've seen a bounce in the UK100 in the final hours of trading on Monday but I'm far from convinced this changes the near-term outlook for the index.
Firstly, the MACD and stochastic on the 4-hour chart don't suggest there is enormous momentum behind the move, even if it is still early on.
Secondly, no key resistance levels have been broken. Of course, there's plenty of time for this to happen but until it does, this is still a chart that looks vulnerable to the downside.
Should the downside materialize, the same levels apply, with 5,500 being the first test and 5,350 below looking an important level.
As far as the upside goes, small gains don't change the outlook unless we see a clear break of 6,000. This would wipe out the previous highs and break the 200/233 simple moving average band in the process, at which point the outlook would look much more bullish.
At this point, 6,200 would appear to represent the next test for the index, with 6,500 being a major level above.
FTSE 100 - Top of the shop?Short sellers squeezed out?
Head and shoulders top forming?
I personally like speculating on what I think could be a right shoulder in a head and shoulders top pattern. Especially when the (potential) right shoulder squeezes into a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Selling FTSE between 5860-5877 if I can. Stops above the highs.
The measured move target is at 5110.
UK100 - Bear Market Rally or Market Bottom?It's been quite a 24 hours in stock markets, with risk appetite suffering due to a combination of factors including earnings and global recession warnings. This was always going to test this new-found bullishness in the markets.
As always, these may have been the catalyst for the sell-off but there will be other underlying factors as well. For example, just prior to stocks turning red, the Dow has made up 50% of those remarkable losses incurred in late February/early March and peaked around 24,000. It's not altogether surprising that this was viewed as a good time to take some cash off the table, especially going into an incredibly unpredictable earnings season.
Whatever the reason, the break of the trend line suggests the near-term trend has shifted and stocks may come under a little pressure. The 55 and 89 SMA band on the 4-hour chart could be an interesting first test, coinciding with prior support and resistance, potentially even triggering a little retracement to the upside. But if that's all it is - and I suspect it may be - the real test lies around 5,350.
This is the 50% retracement level of the move from the lows to this week's peak and could tell us whether this is a bear market rally or a bottomed market with strong upside potential. A break of 50% doesn't confirm the former, it should be stressed, but it would certainly strengthen the case. Below here 5,200 will be interesting (61.8%).
SPX and other markets since 2020Hi Guys,
this is a comparison of the moves made by various markets since the beginning of 2020 using same tools/narrative:
1) from 0 to A represents the downhill provoked by COVID19;
2) A was made when the FED used its "bazooka" (2200 same level when Trump was elected US President);
3) a pullback or "bear rally" occurred from A into Fibonacci Retrecement levels or 200SMA.
DOW
NASDAQ
DAX
FTSE
OIL
GOLD
Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas.
Disclaimer:
Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
IMHO: The point of trading is to make money. To make money you must have money. Depending on the money at your disposal, you can decide what to do and how to do it. By having stops you decide how much you are willing to lose. By having targets you decide how much you want to earn. Be disciplined with your protocol and with your strategies for trading. Sometime you win, sometime you lose. Don't be greedy. Be realistic. Be wary but not afraid. Be curious. Use your brain. As long as your working process make sense and your spirit is calm, everything will be fine. Be patient and be prepared for any circumtances.