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UK100 - Bear Market Rally or Market Bottom?It's been quite a 24 hours in stock markets, with risk appetite suffering due to a combination of factors including earnings and global recession warnings. This was always going to test this new-found bullishness in the markets. As always, these may have been the catalyst for the sell-off but there will be other underlying factors as well. For example, just prior to stocks turning red, the Dow has made up 50% of those remarkable losses incurred in late February/early March and peaked around 24,000. It's not altogether surprising that this was viewed as a good time to take some cash off the table, especially going into an incredibly unpredictable earnings season. Whatever the reason, the break of the trend line suggests the near-term trend has shifted and stocks may come under a little pressure. The 55 and 89 SMA band on the 4-hour chart could be an interesting first test, coinciding with prior support and resistance, potentially even triggering a little retracement to the upside. But if that's all it is - and I suspect it may be - the real test lies around 5,350. This is the 50% retracement level of the move from the lows to this week's peak and could tell us whether this is a bear market rally or a bottomed market with strong upside potential. A break of 50% doesn't confirm the former, it should be stressed, but it would certainly strengthen the case. Below here 5,200 will be interesting (61.8%).
OANDA:UK100GBP
by OANDA
SPX and other markets since 2020Hi Guys, this is a comparison of the moves made by various markets since the beginning of 2020 using same tools/narrative: 1) from 0 to A represents the downhill provoked by COVID19; 2) A was made when the FED used its "bazooka" (2200 same level when Trump was elected US President); 3) a pullback or "bear rally" occurred from A into Fibonacci Retrecement levels or 200SMA. DOW NASDAQ DAX FTSE OIL GOLD Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas. Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities. IMHO: The point of trading is to make money. To make money you must have money. Depending on the money at your disposal, you can decide what to do and how to do it. By having stops you decide how much you are willing to lose. By having targets you decide how much you want to earn. Be disciplined with your protocol and with your strategies for trading. Sometime you win, sometime you lose. Don't be greedy. Be realistic. Be wary but not afraid. Be curious. Use your brain. As long as your working process make sense and your spirit is calm, everything will be fine. Be patient and be prepared for any circumtances.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by cozzamara
1
6,000 a Huge Hurdle For the FTSEStock markets have been on a good run since late March, with the FTSE bouncing back around 20% from its lows to within a whisker of 6,000. The rally looked to be running out of steam around 5,800 but a late surge on Thursday, backed by momentum, quickly changed that. Unfortunately though, we've since seen a bearish engulfing pattern on the 4-hour chart which begs the question, is 6,000 a step too far? Is there really good reason to be this optimistic as we head into the most horrific earnings season in years, probably decades? The momentum indicators will be key for me here but a break would send a strong signal and suddenly 6,200 doesn't look too far away, where it found resistance last just over a month ago. The big level above here though is 6,500. That may be a step too far at this stage, although a lot of bad news seems to be priced in - based on the free pass the horrible data we're seeing is getting - and there is an unprecedented amount of stimulus floating around this system. The usual rules may not apply. Earnings season will be the true test of this. A break below the rising trend line (granted - only two touches, but useful none-the-less) may signal that some profit taking has kicked in and patience is needed. If so, that's fine, it's been an impressive rally under these extreme circumstances.
OANDA:UK100GBP
by OANDA
Dow Jones Intraday Short *HEAD & SHOULDERS*There is potential to get in on a short trade on Dow Jones at 23,500 level thanks to a very clear head and shoulders pattern forming on the 15 minute timeframe. I have circled the key points to the patterns and the 23,500 seems like good resistance with prior rejections occurring there. A short here and sell-off could see price reach the daily pivot level or lower. Be careful as there is high impact OPEC/Oil related discussions today that will likely move markets if anything shocking happens.
OANDA:US30USDShort
by UnknownUnicorn772665
3
FTSE100 To Test Major Support Level SoonFTSE100 (UK100) tries to hold 5600 after multiple failed attempts to overtake 5800. It is currently sitting on a support level. The 4-hour chart is showing us that it is in a descending channel that could form into a bullish flag. What do we have here? ✔️ Descending Channel Following Longer-Term Downtrend ✔️ FTSE100 - Losing Support Level at 5600 Thank you, Connor, Please feel free to follow me to get more analysis. On Tradingview I share 1hr, 4hr, 1D, 1W charting analysis across major instruments only. For more short term analysis and trading ideas please subscribe to The Margin Call.
OANDA:UK100GBPShort
by UnknownUnicorn309537
Where will the FTSE Index bottom, or has it already....We have just experienced the largest market sell-off in history, just few weeks ago it was difficult to see where price would find some support - especially when market circuit breakers where triggering left, right and centre. As we're in the midst of the largest global health/economic crisis for at least the past 100 years, its clear the aftermath ripples of COVID-19 will influence some aspect of our daily lives for a long time...At this point it looks like we are headed for The Great Depression 2.0. However, recently market sell-offs appear to have slowed down, as it looks like price has possibly found a little support. But in a general downtrend, its completely normal for market movement to slow down multiple times, even have a some small rallies to the upside before continuing to lower levels. The FTSE 100 seems to have found support at c.4,900 level, however if it doesn't hold above this level, then it's highly likely that we are headed towards the c.3,500 area - bringing us back to the bottom of the last financial crisis. If the market does play out in this way, then there will be some epic shorting opportunities ahead. In the meantime stay safe readers, and I would like to leave you with the below thoughts from our good friend, which summarises the good old days (pre COVID-19) perfectly..... "We're the middle children of history, man. No purpose or place. We have no Great War. No Great Depression. Our Great War's a spiritual war... our Great Depression is our lives. We've all been raised on television to believe that one day we'd all be millionaires, and movie gods, and rock stars. But we won't. And we're slowly learning that fact. And we're very, very pissed off" - Tyler Durden
TVC:UKXShort
by PavanUK
FTSE100 - WILL LONG TERM THINKING WIN?We are currently seeing a 30-40% adjustment in the markets due tot the impact of Covid-19. After last week's crash, governments have announced economic relief bills of unprecedented sums of money that have turned the market bullish. Although such "rescue packages" are effective in the short-term, they cannot cover long-term economic damage that is expected to result from restrictions under Covid-19 and the oversupply in oil. Most countries in Europe, and the US have not yet seen the peak in cases and deaths as the corona-virus keeps infecting and killing. Governments are imposing tighter restrictions and Italy is considering moving to a "war-economy" that will shut around 70% of the economic activities. Although other European countries seem to have a less steeper increase in corona cases and deaths, it is very likely that most economies will need to shut down more and more over the next coming weeks. Many suggest that the US will become the new "epicenter" of the disease as the virus continues to develop. Some experts say that the virus may slow down in warmer weather, and future infection-waves may be inevitable. Now, let's back this up with some historical and chart analyses: > CCI wave end of Mar-20 similar strength as in Jul-02 and Sep-08. In the latter two instances, both where followed by a less powerful bearish market that despite the lack of strength pushed the market down further. The time frame between the two waves is from Jul-02 to Jan-03 (+/- 6.5mo) and Sep-08 to Feb-09 (+/- 5mo), averaging around 6 months. > The above is supported by: - applying the Elliot-wave theory on the downward trend in the index, which have been very applicable in the past recessions as the chart shows. In 2020, we have seen two downward impulse waves (A,C) and are currently in the second correction wave (D). Correction went back to 0.38Fib, whereas correcton D went a little over 0.38Fib and therefor may first continue upwards to 0.50Fib (c. 5850) or even 0.62Fib (c. 6100) before continuing with the last wave. - MACD suggest a strong bearish market that is not close to cut the base and move into a bullish market. > Assuming the Covid-19 crisis will lead the economy into recession with similar impact on the economy as the 2003 and 2008/9 down-cycles, the index will be falling towards or just below the 4000 points around June or July when the real impact of the Covid-19 restrictions will be felt in the economy. However, the bottom may be strongest in May when Europe at the end and the US at the start of the Covid-19 peak as panic kicks in, hospital capacity is reached and economies need to be shut down almost completely. Also, most analysts are focused on emerged economies but most companies on 1st world stock exchanges have significant economic and market exposure in emerging markets where healthcare, governing and economic systems are not as sound, and where the impact of the virus may not be controllable in any front. > The above is all subject to the developments of Covid-19, but also the lower oil price that is expected to remain low throughout April-20 as Saudi Arabia and Russia will not ramp down production to stabilize global prices. It will be interesting to continue monitoring all developments and see how the world reacts to a problem that we have never faced in modern times.
TVC:UKXShort
by engelandertje