Get started

Ftse100

FTSE100 - WILL LONG TERM THINKING WIN?We are currently seeing a 30-40% adjustment in the markets due tot the impact of Covid-19. After last week's crash, governments have announced economic relief bills of unprecedented sums of money that have turned the market bullish. Although such "rescue packages" are effective in the short-term, they cannot cover long-term economic damage that is expected to result from restrictions under Covid-19 and the oversupply in oil. Most countries in Europe, and the US have not yet seen the peak in cases and deaths as the corona-virus keeps infecting and killing. Governments are imposing tighter restrictions and Italy is considering moving to a "war-economy" that will shut around 70% of the economic activities. Although other European countries seem to have a less steeper increase in corona cases and deaths, it is very likely that most economies will need to shut down more and more over the next coming weeks. Many suggest that the US will become the new "epicenter" of the disease as the virus continues to develop. Some experts say that the virus may slow down in warmer weather, and future infection-waves may be inevitable. Now, let's back this up with some historical and chart analyses: > CCI wave end of Mar-20 similar strength as in Jul-02 and Sep-08. In the latter two instances, both where followed by a less powerful bearish market that despite the lack of strength pushed the market down further. The time frame between the two waves is from Jul-02 to Jan-03 (+/- 6.5mo) and Sep-08 to Feb-09 (+/- 5mo), averaging around 6 months. > The above is supported by: - applying the Elliot-wave theory on the downward trend in the index, which have been very applicable in the past recessions as the chart shows. In 2020, we have seen two downward impulse waves (A,C) and are currently in the second correction wave (D). Correction went back to 0.38Fib, whereas correcton D went a little over 0.38Fib and therefor may first continue upwards to 0.50Fib (c. 5850) or even 0.62Fib (c. 6100) before continuing with the last wave. - MACD suggest a strong bearish market that is not close to cut the base and move into a bullish market. > Assuming the Covid-19 crisis will lead the economy into recession with similar impact on the economy as the 2003 and 2008/9 down-cycles, the index will be falling towards or just below the 4000 points around June or July when the real impact of the Covid-19 restrictions will be felt in the economy. However, the bottom may be strongest in May when Europe at the end and the US at the start of the Covid-19 peak as panic kicks in, hospital capacity is reached and economies need to be shut down almost completely. Also, most analysts are focused on emerged economies but most companies on 1st world stock exchanges have significant economic and market exposure in emerging markets where healthcare, governing and economic systems are not as sound, and where the impact of the virus may not be controllable in any front. > The above is all subject to the developments of Covid-19, but also the lower oil price that is expected to remain low throughout April-20 as Saudi Arabia and Russia will not ramp down production to stabilize global prices. It will be interesting to continue monitoring all developments and see how the world reacts to a problem that we have never faced in modern times.
TVC:UKXShort
by engelandertje
Taylor Wimpey TW *GOOD LONG TERM BUYING OPPORTUNITY*Taylor Wimpey Analysis. Currently trading at more than a 54% discount from the current yearly highs and price is sat around 109/110 support zone. This price level was the very bottom of the lows seen during the 2016 sell-off. They have a strong dividend yield history paying over 9% and before covid-19 came on to the scene, their company financials were looking good. Revenue increased by 10% last year and their cash in hand balance is over 600m. Interest rates have been cut further last week and this theoretically will help to boost new home sales when we pull through the current market climate. It also appears that the construction industry is still firing on all cylinders with site works continuing until further notice.
LSE:TW.Long
by UnknownUnicorn772665
1
UK100As you can see, price has broken the downwards channel. Price is currently heading back down to retest the channel. One of two possible scenario's will take place; 1 - Price will break through, back down into the channel and continue downwards 2 - Price will reject the channel, thus reversing the current downtrend and will begin to make moves to the upside In this current market, anything can happen. We can only trade what we see and should never try guessing. I will wait for the retest and enter a position depending on how price reacts.
OANDA:UK100GBP
by ZS1
#FTSE100 #UK100 Falling Knife Buying Opportunity (Bat & Crab)Traders, it is usually a buying opportunity in markets when there is blood on streets. FTSE100 (UK100) is about to complete a bat pattern and crab pattern in a zone. This is a weekly chart but can give a good opportunity for a bounce up. Don't trade it for extended targets though. Hit the like button and subscribe if you enjoyed this analysis. Comment below and let me know what you think of this analysis and what is yours? I welcome all comments, feedback, ideas and sharing of knowledge. Have a great trading week!
OANDA:UK100GBPLong
by vikinsa
1
FTSE100 Already Provided Clues Of Market BreakDown Before COVIDLooking at UK100 monthly chart, it is evident that the market is ready for collapse before the outbreak of coronavirus. Covid-19 is just the stimulant needed to accelerate FTSE100 market structure breakdown. With L-H and L-L completed in September 2019, market structure for breakdown was long completed but most people (including myself) missed that... N.B - Let emotions and sentiments work for you -ALWAYS Use Proper Risk Management In Your Trades
FX:UK100Short
by BullBearMkt
5