AstraZeneca - Breaking from a wedgeBuy AstraZeneca (AZN.L)
AstraZeneca PLC (AstraZeneca) is a biopharmaceutical company. The Company focuses on discovery and development of products, which are then manufactured, marketed and sold. The Company focuses on three main therapy areas: Oncology, Cardiovascular & Metabolic Disease (CVMD) and Respiratory, while selectively pursuing therapies in Autoimmunity, Infection and Neuroscience.
Market Cap: £90.48Billion
AstraZeneca is breaking higher from a corrective wedge pattern on the daily chart. The long-term uptrend remains bullish and a move towards new highs is expected.
Stop: 6565p
Target 1: 7465p
Target 2: 7580p
Target 3: 8000p
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Ftse100
RBS - Set to correct lower?Sell RBS (RBS.L)
The Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc (RBS) is a banking and financial services company. The Company provides a range of products and services to personal, commercial, corporate and institutional customers, through its subsidiaries, The Royal Bank of Scotland plc and National Westminster Bank Plc (NatWest), as well as through other brands, including Ulster Bank and Coutts.
Market Cap: £29.13Billion
RBS appears overdone in the very short term. The shares have benefitted significantly form the rally in GBP over recent weeks with a 30%+ rally from the October lows. The shares have rallied into an unfilled gap at 247.4p, which was created on the 26th April 2019. This also corresponds with a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level from the highs at 266.1p on the 17th April to the lows at 176.6p on 15th August 2019. The looks to be a reasonable level to take some short-term profit or initiate some speculative selling. The bearish looking candle on the daily chart adds further weight to the bearish argument.
Stop: 250.5p
Target 1: 232p
Target 2: 217p
Target 2: 197p
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NMC Health - One to watchBuy NMC Health (NMC.L)
NMC Health plc is a private healthcare services provider in the United Arab Emirates. The Company operates through two segments: healthcare and distribution & services. The healthcare segment is engaged in providing professional medical services, comprising diagnostic services, in and outpatient clinics, provision of all types of research and medical services in the field of gynecology, obstetrics and human reproduction and retailing of pharmaceutical goods. It also includes the provision of management services in respect of a hospital.
Market Cap: £5.68Billion
NMC Health appears to be forming a bottom pattern on the daily chart. A break above resistance at 3016p is required to complete the pattern, which as this stage is still in the ‘one to watch’ category. The completion of an inverse head and shoulders bottom pattern targets a move to 4325p over the short to medium term. Investors with a more speculative nature could buy at current levels to improve the upside potential. The idea would be invalidated on a move below 2420p.
Stop: 2420p
Target 1: 3015p
Target 2: 3760p
Target 2: 4325p
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Brexit Catalyst for Equity Trade?Before I get into the trade idea, I need to preface that I still believe that US equities will be going higher in the longer term. Not really for any fundamental reasons, but more so that the world is in a bad place and the US looks the best, albeit having a lot of problems. Martin Armstrong calls the US and the US Dollar the prettiest sister out of the three ugly sisters.
Also, there will be nowhere to go for yield. We know QE (or QE but not calling it QE is coming) and interest rates will be dropping to 0 because central banks are out of options. Check out my posts linked below where I talk about all these things...predictions are coming true and we are truly in the reset/crisis.
With rates at 0, we are at the 'paradigm shift' environment that Ray Dalio has spoken about. Bonds are now being traded not for yield but to sell to another bigger fool. Real Estate historically goes up once the first rate hike occurs. You do not take a mortgage out when you know rates will be dropping lower later.
Stocks will be the only place for yield and not only that, the liquidity in this type of macro environment will be appealing. You can get in and get out relatively quickly.
So onto the short TRADE idea. Markets are still being affected by geopolitical and other uncertainties. This will affect equities in the short term, but again, as a fund manager money has to be deployed. You cannot hold cash for a long time. This money will go to work and I predict it will go into stocks for the yield factor described above.
We found out today at time of writing this idea that Brexit will be delayed until January.
I have mentioned how Brexit will likely not happen. It will keep getting delayed and we may very well see a re-vote. There are 3 reasons why Brexit will likely not happen:
1) The British politicians who are part of the European Parliament lose their 6 figure jobs and pensions. Not in their best interest to leave.
2) There will be a European economic/debt crisis. The German taxpayer will not be able to bail out Europe all by themselves. The British tax payer will be required to help.
3) Most importantly, Brexit sets a precedent. European nations like Greece, Spain, Italy and Portugal may get inspired by a deal.
Anyhow, the charts are setting up nicely for a move lower. We have been in an uptrend, with higher highs and higher lows, and then price began to stall at a resistance/flip zone or in some cases near all time highs.
For the SPX, we are seeing an exhaustion it appears. Would ideally like to see a break below this flip zone with a pattern like a head and shoulders.
The Nasdaq already had the break. Would like to see a retest with a confirmed lower high and lower low. Nice strong break.
The Nikkei is showing signs of a trend exhaustion here. Need to see if we get the break.
The China 50 already had the break. Awaiting for another swing (lower high).
The German Dax is at a crucial resistance/flip zone that you can see on the daily chart. Showing signs of exhaustion and potential reversal here.
We should cover the FTSE as well, but honestly, no real good pattern/set up for me on the lower time frames. The Daily still has a crucial level below.
Persimmon - Looks set to re-build its share price.Technicals
Persimmon is holding at key support and showing signs of attracting value hunters. I also note the bullish divergence on the relative ratio (Persimmon share price / UKX). The price of sterling has been a drag on the shares and with GBP moving higher yesterday it could offer some relief to domestic stocks. Technically and fundamentally, Persimmon looks good value here.
Fundamentals
Persimmon currently ranks towards the top of our fundamental model with exceptional scores on value, profitability, momentum and quality metrics. The shares have underperformed the market over the past 1 to 3 months but we do not expect this to continue.
Pros
Ranks in the top 5 of our fundamental ranking model.
Canaccord Genuity reiterated ‘Buy’ advice on the 20th August with a price target of 2720p.
The business continues to produce steady cash flow and boasts a healthy dividend.
Cons
Sales have slowed in recent months.
Peel Hunt reiterated its hold rating on the 1st May 2019 with a price target of 2025p.
Complaints have been raised about the quality of Persimmon homes, this may act as a drag in the short term.
Stop: 1790p
Target: 2430p
Babcock - Potential bottom forming.Buy Babcock (BAB.L)
Babcock International Group PLC is a holding company. The Company provides engineering services. Its segments include Marine and Technology, Defence and Security, Support Services and International. The Marine and Technology segment delivers support to the United Kingdom Royal Navy's submarines, naval ships and infrastructure. It also offers solutions in engineering, equipment management, consultancy, information and knowledge management. The Defence and Security segment offers engineering and training support services.
Market Cap: £2.68Billion
Babcock appears to be in the process of forming a bottom pattern on the daily chart. A break above 576p is needed to confirm the bottom pattern. Buying now is a pre-emptive move but it offers fantastic risk/reward at the current levels. The company is likely to benefit substantially on a Brexit deal.
Stop: 490p
Target 1: 576p
Target 2: 740p
Target 2: 800p
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IG Group - Inverse head and shoulders bottomBuy IG Group (IGG.L)
IG Group Holdings plc is a United Kingdom-based company, which is engaged in online trading. The Company provides contracts for difference (CFDs) in over 17 countries globally. The Company's segments include UK, Australia, Europe and Rest of World. The UK segment consists of its operations in the United Kingdom and Ireland, and derives its revenue from financial spread bets, CFDs, binary options and execution only stockbroking. The Australian segment derives its revenue from CFDs and binary options. The Europe segment consists of its operations in France, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden and Switzerland, and derives its revenue from CFDs, binary options and execution only stockbroking.
Market Cap: £2.2Billion
IG has completed an inverse head and shoulders bottom pattern on the daily chart. The move higher stalled at 648 and has corrected lower towards the neckline of the pattern at around 580p. This also lines up with a couple of Fibonacci support levels. The bullish outside candle that has formed today suggests that further upside could be seen in the short term.
Stop: 555p
Target 1: 630p
Target 2: 733p
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Clean up with Reckitt BenckiserBuy Reckitt Benckiser (RB.L)
Reckitt Benckiser Group plc is a manufacturer and marketer of health, hygiene, post-natal and home products. The Company's segments include ENA and DvM. The ENA segment consists of Europe, Russia/Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), Israel, North America, Australia and New Zealand. The DvM segment consists of North Africa, Middle East (excluding Israel) and Turkey, Africa, South Asia, North Asia, Latin America, Japan, Korea and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Health, Hygiene, Home and Portfolio Brands categories are split across the geographical segments of ENA and DVM. Its range of hygiene products includes disinfectant cleaners, automatic dishwashing detergents, pest control, depilatory products and acne treatments. The Company's portfolio of brands includes Durex, Mucinex, Scholl, Strepsils, Cillit Bang, Clearasil, Dettol, Harpic, Lysol, Mortein, Veet, Air Wick, Calgon, Vanish and Woolite.
Market Cap: £44Billion
Reckitt Benckiser has had an indifferent few months. So often it’s a mainstay of investors portfolios with its predictable growth and solid stream of income. In recent months the share price has been in consolidation mode and not really offered investors very much. In recent weeks a bullish channel has formed, and we are beginning to see investors return on spells of weakness. The latest move from the lower end of the channel could be the beginning of a fresh move higher towards resistance at 7175p
Stop: 5980p
Target 1: 6710p
Target 2: 7165p
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Vodafone - Rising at 5G speed.Buy Vodafone (VOD.L)
Vodafone Group Plc is a telecommunications company. The Company's business is organized into two geographic regions: Europe, and Africa, Middle East and Asia Pacific (AMAP). Its segments include Europe and AMAP. Its Europe segment includes geographic regions, such as Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom, Spain and Other Europe. The Other Europe includes the Netherlands, Portugal, Greece, Hungary and Romania, among others. Its AMAP segment includes India, South Africa, Tanzania, Mozambique, Lesotho, Africa, Turkey, Australia, Egypt, Ghana, Kenya, and among others. The Company provides a range of services, including voice, messaging and data across mobile and fixed networks.
Market Cap: £43.13Billion
Vodafone has had a terrible couple of years as the share price has plummeted from 240p to lows of 122p. There are some encouraging signs appearing, which began with the break of the bearish channel and the formation of a rounded bottom on the daily chart. The break of resistance at 147.86p confirmed the bottom pattern and suggests further upside will be seen over the medium term. The first target is the measured move of the bottom pattern at 174p, beyond that we see the price reaching closer to 200p. In the very short term, the shares are trading in a neat channel, buying interest looks set to continue.
Stop: 151.95p
Target 1: 174p
Target 2: 190p
Target 3: 193p
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IAG - About to flyBuy IAG (IAG.L)
International Consolidated Airlines Group, S.A. is an airline company that holds the interests in airline and ancillary operations. Its segments include British Airways, Iberia, Vueling, Aer Lingus and Other Group companies. It combines the airlines in the United Kingdom, Spain and Ireland. It has approximately 550 aircrafts to over 280 destinations. The Company operates various aircraft fleet services, including Airbus A318, Airbus A319, Airbus A340-600, Boeing 787-800, Embraer E190 and Boeing 777-200, among others. The Company, through its subsidiaries, is engaged in providing airline marketing, airline operations, insurance, aircraft maintenance, storage and custody services, air freight operations and cargo transport services.
Market Cap: £9.25Billion
International Consolidated Airlines share price has been hit hard over recent months. Following the sharp move lower we are now beginning to see the shares consolidate and potentially forming a bottom pattern. A break above the resistance at 4878p would confirm the bottom pattern and offer upside potential towards 560p. In extension of that, there is an unfilled gap at 643p, which may act as a magnet for the price over the medium term. The risk/reward is favourable from here.
Stop: 432p
Target 1: 560p
Target 2: 605p
Target 3: 640p
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Vodafone Reversing??Vodafone ran into a solid confluence zone of resistance in Friday. It has since retraced over 5%. Today it fell over 2.3% and, crucially, it fell below the 1:1 trendline on the Fibonacci Fan shown. This is important because this trendline has acted as the greatest source of support throughout this uptrend. In addition, there has been a bearish divergence on the RSI since August 21st. The resistance was also provided by a 1.618 extension of the range between points A and B (not shown).
As far as targetting how far the market MAY go, the strength of resistance indicates there's a good chance the market will retrace to the 0.382 level or more. Note that this is one of the strongest horizontal price barriers on this chart. If the market reaches the 0.382 level, it could do so at a point of intersection with another diagonal price barrier such as the example in the pink circle where the 0.75 fan line intersects the 0.382 level.
Equally, breaking through this level to the downside would be a sign of strength in the downward pressure. If the market reaches this level, watch how the price behaves around the level. It will leave very important clues.
Vodafone Reversing??Vodafone ran into a solid confluence zone of resistance in Friday. It has since retraced over 5%. Today it fell over 2.3% and, crucially, it fell below the 1:1 trendline on the Fibonacci Fan shown. This is important because this trendline has acted as the greatest source of support throughout this uptrend. In addition, there has been a bearish divergence on the RSI since August 21st. The resistance was also provided by a 1.618 extension of the range between points A and B (not shown).
As far as targetting how far the market MAY go, the strength of resistance indicates there's a good chance the market will retrace to the 0.382 level or more. Note that this is one of the strongest horizontal price barriers on this chart. If the market reaches the 0.382 level, it could do so at a point of intersection with another diagonal price barrier such as the example in the pink circle where the 0.75 fan line intersects the 0.382 level.
Equally, breaking through this level to the downside would be a sign of strength in the downward pressure. If the market reaches this level, watch how the price behaves around the level. It will leave very important clues.
Confluence of resistance for RBSFor a more in-depth analysis, see:
www.quantiumresearch.co.uk
RBS ran into an almighty price barrier on Friday. Today it reversed over 2%. Look at the significance of this resistance. 3 components are shown in the chart:
1) Fibonacci fan line
2) 100-day moving average
3) 2.618 extension of a price gap.
The market has retested and responded to the 0.382 trendline from the fan 3 times before now. That makes it a validated trendline and solid resistance in its own right. When this was combined with the 100-day moving average, it gained even more significance. Now, the Fibonacci extension is measured not from a price range, but from a non-price range: a gap! The high of the top candle landed right on the 2.618 extension. This degree of confluence means something.
That being said, the market had completed 5 waves down and developed a bullish divergence on the RSI . If this means the downtrend is over, then today's turn to the downside may be short lived, even it it was initiated by a very strong area of resistance. A very interesting chart to keep an eye on.
An almighty price barrier for RBSRBS ran into an almighty price barrier on Friday. Today it reversed over 2%. Look at the significance of this resistance. 3 components are shown in the chart:
1) Fibonacci fan line
2) 100-day moving average
3) 2.618 extension of a price gap.
The market has retested and responded to the 0.382 trendline from the fan 3 times before now. That makes it a validated trendline and solid resistance in its own right. When this was combined with the 100-day moving average, it gained even more significance. Now, the Fibonacci extension is measured not from a price range, but from a non-price range: a gap! The high of the top candle landed right on the 2.618 extension. This degree of confluence means something.
That being said, the market had completed 5 waves down and developed a bullish divergence on the RSI. If this means the downtrend is over, then today's turn to the downside may be short lived, even it it was initiated by a very strong area of resistance. A very interesting chart to keep an eye on.
FTSE - Limited upsideTrade Idea
Prices are extending higher from the bullish flag/pennant formation.
We have a 61.8% Fibonacci pullback level of 7458 from 7020 to 7729.
Bespoke resistance is located at 7461.
Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a possible turnaround is possible.
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile.
We look to Sell at 7460
Stop: 7495
Target 1: 7375
Target 2: 7300
UK Stock Index FTSE (Is the "Dead Cat Bounce" in a making?)View On UK Stock Index FTSE (9 Aug 2019)
Back Ground: A strong BEAR action is met with a strong reaction. Some people call it "Dear Cat Bounce".
Target(s): It can go UP to 7360/7400 as retest (or) you can wait at these regions for a possible SHORT.
SHTF: 7100/7170 region is good support.
DYODD, all the best and read the disclaimer too.
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Thank You!
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DISCLAIMER:
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information discussed in this presentation or linked to from this presentation are provided as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice.
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JD Sports Now Out Of ConsolidationLast post: See link below.
Review: Price was in a period of consolidation.
Update: Price is currently trading out of consolidation.
Conclusion: As long as price can remain out of the consolidation zone, we should see a continuation of the previous uptrend.
Any comments or questions, do not hesitate to leave them below. Give us the thumbs up if you share our sentiments!
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Boohoo Looking Strong AgainLast post: See link below.
Review: Price was stuck in a large period of consolidation and was not presenting any trading opportunities.
Update: Price has now broken out of consolidation, which lasted over 2 years, and looks interesting again.
Conclusion: We want the current support level to hold followed by a break of the previous high before we look for any long opportunities.
Any comments or questions, do not hesitate to leave them below. Give us the thumbs up if you share our sentiments!
Sublime Trading