FTSE100 - Market Crash Cycles | Indices | Macro Trends*Please support this idea with a LIKE if it helps you. Thanks!
More details about me in my signature.
FTSE100 has been labeled within a Grand Super-Cycle degree wave IV (blue), which has been unfolding ever since the Dot-Com bubble.
Structure - Expanding Flat Formation
2000 peaks and down until 2003 bottoms - Super-Cycle wave (a) (red)
2003 bottoms up until 2007 tops - Cycle wave a (black)
2007 tops and down until 2009 lows - Cycle wave b (black)
2009 lows and up until present times - Cycle wave C (black)
Cycle C (black)
Pattern - Ending Diagonal
Sequence - 5-Wave Sequence, with Primary Waves 1 2 3 4 5 (green) decomposed as Intermediate (A)(B)(C) (blue)
Current Position
Primary Wave 5 (green)
Next expected swing
Bearish sequence in Intermediate (B) (blue)
Market Crash Forecast
Support granted at or around the 7000.00 mark and then a bull run towards the 9000.00 levels, where the Super-Cycle Wave (b) (red) is expected to complete.Super-Cycle Wave (c) (red) would reflect the next Larger Degree Recession.
Structure change
Breach of the lower trend-line of the Ascending Channel could reflect the fact that the Market Crash already started.
Ftse100
FTSE 100 Showing Short-Term WeaknessLast post: April 24th 2019. See chart .
Review: Price was trading comfortably above the daily 200 simple moving average and looked bullish.
Update: Since then price has shown weakness and currently sits on the 50 simple moving average.
Conclusion: We want to see if the support area holds and pushes price back up.
Any comments or questions, do not hesitate to leave them below. Give us the thumbs up if you share our sentiments!
Sublime Trading
Uk100 FTSE Short Opportunity - 4 : 1 Reward vs Risk Hello All
Following watching trades from last week start to play out, I am expecting the FTSE 100 to follow lower in the coming days.
This is based on it reaching a key level of resistance which I expect will result certainly in a short term correction. - We are still in a bullish overall trend at present though.
I am expecting to see a bearish engulfing candle at resistance on the 4hr chart then maybe a double top resulting in a lower high.
Thanks for reading
Duncan
FTSE 100 Making Good progressLast post: April 3rd 2019. See chart .
Review: Price was trading comfortably above the daily 200 simple moving average.
Update: Price has continued to look strong making higher highs and higher low.
Conclusion: We want price to continue to advance higher and eventually break the previous all-time high.
Any comments or questions, do not hesitate to leave them below. Give us the thumbs up if you share our sentiments!
Sublime Trading
Elliott Wave View: Further Strength in FTSEElliott Wave view on FTSE calls the rally from February 28, 2019 low (7041) as an impulse Elliott Wave structure. An impulse is a 5 waves structure with wave 1, 3, and 5 all subdivide in 5 waves of lesser degree. Up from 7041 low, wave 1 ended at 7370.6 and wave 2 ended at 7146.29 and Wave 3 ended at 7477 peak. Up from 7146.29, wave ((i)) ended at 7222.64, wave ((ii)) pullback ended at 7160.14. Index resumes rally in wave ((iii)) at 7461.39, and wave ((iv)) ended at 7420.41 and wave ((v)) of wave 3 ended at 7477.
Index should now pullback in wave 4 before the rally resumes in wave 5. Wave 4 should correct wave 3 rally from 7146.29 low. We don’t like selling the Index and expect buyers to appear to buy dips in 3, 7, or 11 swing as far as pivot at 7146.29 low stays intact.
View On FTSE UK stock index (The uptrend is still in tact)View On FTSE (5 Apr 2019)
Back Ground: We are in the strong impulsive move up and it may not last. We shall see some sort of pullback along the way. BUT it is not going to be a strong downtrend to me. In fact, any pullback to the support will be a good time to buy in.
Target(s): UP 7,480(TP1) 7,560 (TP2)
SHTF: It will use 7,000 as strong support.
DYODD, all the best and read the disclaimer too.
Feel Free to "Follow", press "LIKE" "Comment".
Thank You!
Legal Risk Disclosure:
Trading foreign exchange or CFD on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors.
The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.
The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.
You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor.
DISCLAIMER:
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information discussed in this presentation or linked to from this presentation are provided as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice.
Sonicr Mastery Team does not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
FTSE 100 Remains Bullish Going Into AprilLast post: March 18th 2019. See chart .
Review: Price had just broken through the daily 200 simple moving average and we were waiting to see whether price would remain above it.
Update: Price did move below the daily 200 simple moving average but has since moved back above it and is looking strong.
Conclusion: We want price to continue to create higher highs and higher lows.
Any comments or questions, do not hesitate to leave them below. Give us the thumbs up if you share our sentiments!
Sublime Trading
FTSE 100 Breaks Above the 200 Simple Moving AverageLast post: December 6th 2018. See chart .
Review: Price was looking bearish after breaking through the strong support level.
Update: The bias is now bullish as price is currently trading back above the daily 200 simple moving average.
Conclusion: As long as the bullish momentum continues, the UK stock market is likely to form a lot of bullish trends which we will be taking advantage of.
Any comments or questions, do not hesitate to leave them below. Give us the thumbs up if you share our sentiments!
Sublime Trading
III (3i group) long
Following a weekend stroll through the UK stocks that I watch III came to my attention, the stock has a solid base after a move up and has been struggling to break 965 since July 2017. Around May 2018 the stock did have a huge burst through the level but wasn’t able to maintain it for very long until the support broke it became resistance again. Since then the stock has fallen from the level multiple times without a successful break, so far this year III has performed very well and that has brought it back to the 965 level where the price began to consolidate. This level obviously holds massive selling pressure, but like a blocked tap the pressure to break through is mounting. I feel as though this set up has massive potential and a break of 965 could see us go through a sustained move higher. The plan with this stock is to play for a break of 965 using the high of a previous attempt to break through as entry, when the price breaks through I will use the PLOD as a stop loss. I will buy the stock in 3 separate positions so that I can trim on the way up to leave one position free to run and collect dividends if they’re available. I will trim the position at 980 and 990 which provide obvious areas of resistance both as large round numbers and from previous price action.
Thanks
Joe
LSE:III
BT shortSimilar to my last post BT has been having a horrible time and has been on a continuous slide since 2016, unfortunately for BT it seems as though they could be about to start another move down through the 213 level. Again similar to BA. we have a gap down which has been followed up by further weakness and then some consolidation at a level in this case support is 213. The last two trading days in BT have seen dojis with very little movement between their open and closes this is reflected by the 18.7% negative difference in the 10 day average volume vs the 3 month average indicating a period of calm while we decide where to go next. My entry stop will be at 212.99 on this set up with the stop loss at the high day previous to the break out candle when 213 goes. The next major support should be found at the round number for 210 where a third of the position will be trimmed as always leaving 2 thirds running to be decided after. Please let me know if you see this situation differently and message me with your views.
Joe
LSE:BT.A
BAE (BA.) short One name that I think looks really attractive or scary depending on the way you look at it is BA., this defence giant since posting a new high in July 2018 has embarked on a decent steep enough to give the most ardent roller coaster enthusiast week knees. After the massive move down the stock finally found some support at 450 before a brief bounce and is now making its way back to that level but is taking a breather around 460 which is where we find ourselves today. I really like this set up, after a gap down the price has been moving sideways before we decide where were going next this is shown by the 10 day average volume being 19% below the 3 month average suggesting to me that people are waiting to see how this area plays out. My plan is to play for a break of the 461 level with my stop entry being set at 458.9 just past the low of the previous attempt at the level. the next major support should be found at 450 where I will trim a 3rd of my position. Past that 440 will be the next trim which will leave 1 third of my original position left to run freely using a weekly high trailing stop after the move down. I hope you enjoyed this post, if you share my views be sure to get in touch or if you have an other UK stocks you think are worth looking into ill be more than happy to chat to you about them. Happy trading.
Joe
LSE:BA.
SELL YOUR HOUSE AND GO LONG hahaYou can see from our support line ( green line ) that this is a VERY strong level that price has bounced of many times, Price has also bounced off this level this week and we can see a run up to our resistance zone ( green box )
Of course surrounding Brexit and businesses not knowing how the deal or no deal will affect them and trading then you have to be cautious trading the FTSE 100 as this is comprised of 100 companies listed on the London stock exchange with the highest market capitalisation, So any laws that stop these businesses earning will drastically affect the FTSE 100 price.
We suggest trading this with a very tight SL, but we can see this been a very nice opportunity to go long and make some decent money.
p.s don't actually sell your house you moron ;p
TSCO LongTSCO is also on my watch list for this week as it is currently attempting to take out the 230 level which has been resistance since October last year and before that was resistance turned support back in April 2018. TSCO has been getting super tight to this level and after a good sell-off from 230, the stock has put in three higher lows suggesting a buyers market. What I like most about this set up is how tight a risk profile we can get with today's price action a stop order will be placed above 7th of February 2019 high at 231.7 aiming for the path of least resistance for a move higher. The stock is also testing its 200 day MA which means that the name will be on a lot of institutional traders radars so if a meaningful break of this level occurs there could be some real buying power behind it. Feel free to pick this trade apart or tell me where you agree, happy trading.
Joe
LSE:TSCO
BRBY Long
I will be keeping a close eye on BRBY this week especially the 1980 level which has played a role as resistance since the level broke back in October of last year. The price has been tickling the level for around two weeks but never had the momentum to break through, after the huge sell off an bounce back we experienced last week you'd have to guess that most the seller/shorters either lost their shirt or lost interest as their positions reversed clearing the way for more buyers to break 1980. I will be placing a stop order above the high of the previous break out attempt at 1991 buying into a position divisible to three equal parts which will be trimmed at the overhead resistance points to leave one third running. I am aware that the large psychological number of 2000 hangs ominously over this current consolidation the more conservative trader may want to see how the level performs before entering but for me, I am happy to play through 1980. AS always feel free to let me know if you see things differently and if you want to see more UK based stock content be sure to follow me, happy trading.
Joe
LSE:BRBY
Possible biggest recession/depression since the 1930s OANDA:NAS100USD
Ok i know this may seem far fetchewd and i really arent normally a doom monger but many things point to this, one Brexit, 2, USA Trade war with China, 3 MASSIVE debt of developed countries, 4, governments have not been able to get themselves in a position where they have the tools to boost the economy since the world wide finicial crisis, interest rate s at rock bottom stil which i my opinion the strongest weapon in a countries armoury to control inflation and either take heat out the economy or give it a boost.
I think the world economy would prob take either brexit or a USA trade war but not both at the same time after a crippling finacial crisis.
I also think tech will be hardest hit so i am just waiting for a catalyst to short the tech equities.
By the way i aint an economist or anything really, these are simple just my ponderings and iuts likely you will think its rubbish and it may well be but i will still trade it until it breaks down and becomes impossible.
NG (National Grid) long LSE:NG.
A stock I will be keeping a close eye on this week is NG or national Grid a ulisities giant with a market cap of 29 billion, it is the largest UK provider of energy and has a presence in the US market. NG has struggled since May to break the 864 level and is approaching that zone again, ten day volume is massively below its longer run three month average indicating that investors are on the sidelines. After three previous attempts at this level fourth time's the charm, however I would like to see some consolidation under the round number support before a break out on high volume. The game plan is to place a stop order at 864.1 sey for a breakout from this level, a proper stop loss can be determined after confirmation of the breakout. I hope you like this idea and as always feel free to pick it apart and tell me where i could be wrong, if you enjoy the content and wish to see more give me a follow any support you can offer would be appreciated happy trading.
Joe
UKX Reversed Off Resistance, Prepare For Further DropFTSE 100 approached our first resistance at 7233 (horizontal pullback resistance, 50% Fibonacci retracement , 61.8% & 100% Fibonacci extension ) where a strong drop might occur below this level pushing price down to our major support at 6961(38.2% Fibonacci retracement , Horizontal pullback support, 100% Fibonacci extension )
Stochastic (55,5,3) is also approaching resistance where we might see a corresponding drop in price.
Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk. Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
Mean reversion on the cards and possible run back to 8th Feb lowThe GBP/USD symmetrical triangle (ST) on the hourly chats is due a breakout, one way or the other. On a continuation of the upside in cable - (trade war talk optimism that is denting the greenback and giving life to risk on FX is likely here to stay this week (with a probable extension to the deadline being agreed)) - the FTSE would likely suffer another blow in a critical techncial area. After breaching the 50% Fibo target at 7222, with the confluence of R1 and a key trend line resistance level that meets a horizontal support level made up of Sep 2018 lows, bullish attempts are capped. Offers meet RSI at 70. Daily stochastics are also well overbought, indicating the buyers will stop buying. To the downside, if the 7190/80 level support area doesn't hold, a mean reversion of 50% of the move from 8th Feb lows to 7164 guards a firmer 7060/70 area (made up of 38.2% Fibo of May 2018 highs to Dec 2018 lows and Feb/Mar 2018 and Feb 8th 2019 lows). However, on a breakout in cable to the downside of the ST, FTSE bulls can look towards that menacing resistance of the 200-D SMA at the round 7300 level, a moving average that was last tested and breached momentarily back in Sep 2018. A break of the 200-D SMA will look for the 61.8% Fibo target located at 7381. Orders placed both sides of the ST in cable OCO and a short in FTSE with SL above 200-D SMA.