Ftse100
TSCO LongTSCO is also on my watch list for this week as it is currently attempting to take out the 230 level which has been resistance since October last year and before that was resistance turned support back in April 2018. TSCO has been getting super tight to this level and after a good sell-off from 230, the stock has put in three higher lows suggesting a buyers market. What I like most about this set up is how tight a risk profile we can get with today's price action a stop order will be placed above 7th of February 2019 high at 231.7 aiming for the path of least resistance for a move higher. The stock is also testing its 200 day MA which means that the name will be on a lot of institutional traders radars so if a meaningful break of this level occurs there could be some real buying power behind it. Feel free to pick this trade apart or tell me where you agree, happy trading.
Joe
LSE:TSCO
BRBY Long
I will be keeping a close eye on BRBY this week especially the 1980 level which has played a role as resistance since the level broke back in October of last year. The price has been tickling the level for around two weeks but never had the momentum to break through, after the huge sell off an bounce back we experienced last week you'd have to guess that most the seller/shorters either lost their shirt or lost interest as their positions reversed clearing the way for more buyers to break 1980. I will be placing a stop order above the high of the previous break out attempt at 1991 buying into a position divisible to three equal parts which will be trimmed at the overhead resistance points to leave one third running. I am aware that the large psychological number of 2000 hangs ominously over this current consolidation the more conservative trader may want to see how the level performs before entering but for me, I am happy to play through 1980. AS always feel free to let me know if you see things differently and if you want to see more UK based stock content be sure to follow me, happy trading.
Joe
LSE:BRBY
Possible biggest recession/depression since the 1930s OANDA:NAS100USD
Ok i know this may seem far fetchewd and i really arent normally a doom monger but many things point to this, one Brexit, 2, USA Trade war with China, 3 MASSIVE debt of developed countries, 4, governments have not been able to get themselves in a position where they have the tools to boost the economy since the world wide finicial crisis, interest rate s at rock bottom stil which i my opinion the strongest weapon in a countries armoury to control inflation and either take heat out the economy or give it a boost.
I think the world economy would prob take either brexit or a USA trade war but not both at the same time after a crippling finacial crisis.
I also think tech will be hardest hit so i am just waiting for a catalyst to short the tech equities.
By the way i aint an economist or anything really, these are simple just my ponderings and iuts likely you will think its rubbish and it may well be but i will still trade it until it breaks down and becomes impossible.
NG (National Grid) long LSE:NG.
A stock I will be keeping a close eye on this week is NG or national Grid a ulisities giant with a market cap of 29 billion, it is the largest UK provider of energy and has a presence in the US market. NG has struggled since May to break the 864 level and is approaching that zone again, ten day volume is massively below its longer run three month average indicating that investors are on the sidelines. After three previous attempts at this level fourth time's the charm, however I would like to see some consolidation under the round number support before a break out on high volume. The game plan is to place a stop order at 864.1 sey for a breakout from this level, a proper stop loss can be determined after confirmation of the breakout. I hope you like this idea and as always feel free to pick it apart and tell me where i could be wrong, if you enjoy the content and wish to see more give me a follow any support you can offer would be appreciated happy trading.
Joe
UKX Reversed Off Resistance, Prepare For Further DropFTSE 100 approached our first resistance at 7233 (horizontal pullback resistance, 50% Fibonacci retracement , 61.8% & 100% Fibonacci extension ) where a strong drop might occur below this level pushing price down to our major support at 6961(38.2% Fibonacci retracement , Horizontal pullback support, 100% Fibonacci extension )
Stochastic (55,5,3) is also approaching resistance where we might see a corresponding drop in price.
Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk. Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
Mean reversion on the cards and possible run back to 8th Feb lowThe GBP/USD symmetrical triangle (ST) on the hourly chats is due a breakout, one way or the other. On a continuation of the upside in cable - (trade war talk optimism that is denting the greenback and giving life to risk on FX is likely here to stay this week (with a probable extension to the deadline being agreed)) - the FTSE would likely suffer another blow in a critical techncial area. After breaching the 50% Fibo target at 7222, with the confluence of R1 and a key trend line resistance level that meets a horizontal support level made up of Sep 2018 lows, bullish attempts are capped. Offers meet RSI at 70. Daily stochastics are also well overbought, indicating the buyers will stop buying. To the downside, if the 7190/80 level support area doesn't hold, a mean reversion of 50% of the move from 8th Feb lows to 7164 guards a firmer 7060/70 area (made up of 38.2% Fibo of May 2018 highs to Dec 2018 lows and Feb/Mar 2018 and Feb 8th 2019 lows). However, on a breakout in cable to the downside of the ST, FTSE bulls can look towards that menacing resistance of the 200-D SMA at the round 7300 level, a moving average that was last tested and breached momentarily back in Sep 2018. A break of the 200-D SMA will look for the 61.8% Fibo target located at 7381. Orders placed both sides of the ST in cable OCO and a short in FTSE with SL above 200-D SMA.
The Week Ahead: FTSE 100FTSE 100 broke a major downtrend lend to the upside on January 30th 2019 and has continued to push higher. With Brexit looming over, it is a volatile time for the UK and Eurozone participants.
The recent fib extension indicates that the FTSE 100's move higher could continue to the 127.2% level, 7311, which can make further headway back to a full 100% retracement 7552, which coincides with the extensions 161.8% level. If the FTSE 100 continues, this near term price targets look likely.
However, it is possible to retrace lower and reverse its recent gains and breakout of the downtrend with potential price levels of 7165 and 6923. We will be watching the 6923 levels closely if the downside scenario plays out.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation, buy/sell signal, or advice in any format.
SHORT UKX approaching resistance, potential drop!just now
FTSE 100 is approaching our first resistance at 7233 (horizontal pullback resistance, 50% Fibonacci retracement , 61.8% & 100% Fibonacci extension ) where a strong drop might occur below this level pushing price down to our major support at 6961(38.2% Fibonacci retracement , Horizontal pullback support, 100% Fibonacci extension )
Stochastic (55,5,3) is also approaching resistance where we might see a corresponding drop in price.
Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk. Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
FTSE100: NO DEAL BABY The technical side
The price has reached the EMA200 daily, key dynamic resistance for the continuation of the trend: an upward break would bring the price directly into the upper area between 7330 and 7520 points; a rejected, however, will return it to test the 6900 points.
The result of a " no deal " Brexit
In the last three sessions it seems that this second hypothesis is becoming the most plausible one: the fundamental scenario remains strongly bearish both for the English index and for the pound as for now the exit from the EU with a "No Deal", without agreement between London and Brussels, seems to be the most likely option. This will entail a series of negative consequences both at the bureaucratic and institutional level, but above all at the economic level.
Our target!
We remain strongly convinced that, if there were no significant changes, the target of the FTSE 100 from now to a month is the support placed at about 6700 points and in the short term will lateralize between 6700 and 6900 points.
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Elliott Wave View Suggest FTSE Close To Reaching ExtremeFTSE short-term Elliott wave view suggests that a rally from 12/27/2018 low (6536.53) is unfolding as a zigzag structure where initial rally to 7001.94 high ended wave A in 5 waves structure. Down from there, wave B unfolded as a Flat correction where wave ((a)) ended at 6841.74 low. Wave ((b)) bounce ended at 6987.93 high in lesser degree flat correction. Wave ((c)) ended in lesser degree 5 waves at 6732.33 low, which also completed wave B pullback. After reaching the blue box area at 6785.66-6658.34 100%-161.8% Fibonacci extension area of ((a))-((b)).
Up from there, wave C remain in progress as impulse structure where wave ((i)) ended at 6994.88 high. Wave ((ii)) pullback ended at 6945.05 low ((iii)) ended at 7186.5 and can soon end wave ((iv)) looking for more upside towards 7191.16-7473.95 100%-161.8% Fibonacci extension area of wave A-B to reach the extreme from 12/27/2018 low. Afterwards, index is expected to resume the downside or should do a 3 wave pullback at least. Near-term cycle from 12/27/2018 low is mature already with a minimum number of swings in place so it can also deny the last move higher in wave ((v)) and can be completed already but as far as a pivot from 6732.33 low expect index to extend higher.
FTSE 100 Summary for End Week 4 - 2019FTSE lacking momentum one way or another
Technically we can see that the FTSE 100 remains negatively biased. The (orange) Chikou Span is well below the price line and has yet to define any significant support or resistance levels, which may not help if any further negative Brexit or other political concerns rear their ugly heads. That said a flattening Kijun Sen (blue) line might indicate the possibility of a more positive move as this can act as a magnet. For a more significant signal the Tenkan Sen (red) line needs to positively cross, which appears to be some way off yet.
Fundamentally the strengthening of the pound at the end of week 4 hasn't helped as most of the FTSE 100 constituents conduct business externally of the UK. And of course week 5 sees further shenanigans regarding Brexit. If the government can actually govern for once and find something positive in the next voting session, this may help and confirm a possible trend change going forward.
WAIT FOR NOW
FTSE100 DOUBLE TOP PATTERN: ANALYSISFTSE100 HAS REJECTED THE KEY RESISTANCE AND WITH RETAIL TRADERS NET LONG WE COULD
SEE THIS MARKET MOVE LOWER. CURRENTLY PRICE LOOKS TO BE FORMING A DOUBLE TOP PATTERN
THE DAILY CHART. IF THIS PATTERN COMPLETES WE EXPECT THE NECKLINE TO ACT AS RESISTANCE
WITH TARGETS BEEING THE KEY WEEKLY TRENDLINE.
FTSE100 Short !The price has returned to fall with the crossing of the dynamic resistance identified by the EMA 200 and 20 weekly at about 7000 points, and then immediately rejected by 150 points on the downside. The level 7000 is a crucial barrier for the direction in the short term: until it will remain below, the most plausible target is the support in the 6400 area; an upside break would lead to the cancellation of the current trend, bearish for 7 months. With an unstable government, low approval for May and the brexit back on the roadmap, the most probable road for FTSE 100 is to continue this downtrend at least up to the support just mentioned at 6400 points. The first target is 50% of the Fibonacci retracement at 6700.