SHORT UKX approaching resistance, potential drop!just now
FTSE 100 is approaching our first resistance at 7233 (horizontal pullback resistance, 50% Fibonacci retracement , 61.8% & 100% Fibonacci extension ) where a strong drop might occur below this level pushing price down to our major support at 6961(38.2% Fibonacci retracement , Horizontal pullback support, 100% Fibonacci extension )
Stochastic (55,5,3) is also approaching resistance where we might see a corresponding drop in price.
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Ftse100
FTSE100: NO DEAL BABY The technical side
The price has reached the EMA200 daily, key dynamic resistance for the continuation of the trend: an upward break would bring the price directly into the upper area between 7330 and 7520 points; a rejected, however, will return it to test the 6900 points.
The result of a " no deal " Brexit
In the last three sessions it seems that this second hypothesis is becoming the most plausible one: the fundamental scenario remains strongly bearish both for the English index and for the pound as for now the exit from the EU with a "No Deal", without agreement between London and Brussels, seems to be the most likely option. This will entail a series of negative consequences both at the bureaucratic and institutional level, but above all at the economic level.
Our target!
We remain strongly convinced that, if there were no significant changes, the target of the FTSE 100 from now to a month is the support placed at about 6700 points and in the short term will lateralize between 6700 and 6900 points.
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Elliott Wave View Suggest FTSE Close To Reaching ExtremeFTSE short-term Elliott wave view suggests that a rally from 12/27/2018 low (6536.53) is unfolding as a zigzag structure where initial rally to 7001.94 high ended wave A in 5 waves structure. Down from there, wave B unfolded as a Flat correction where wave ((a)) ended at 6841.74 low. Wave ((b)) bounce ended at 6987.93 high in lesser degree flat correction. Wave ((c)) ended in lesser degree 5 waves at 6732.33 low, which also completed wave B pullback. After reaching the blue box area at 6785.66-6658.34 100%-161.8% Fibonacci extension area of ((a))-((b)).
Up from there, wave C remain in progress as impulse structure where wave ((i)) ended at 6994.88 high. Wave ((ii)) pullback ended at 6945.05 low ((iii)) ended at 7186.5 and can soon end wave ((iv)) looking for more upside towards 7191.16-7473.95 100%-161.8% Fibonacci extension area of wave A-B to reach the extreme from 12/27/2018 low. Afterwards, index is expected to resume the downside or should do a 3 wave pullback at least. Near-term cycle from 12/27/2018 low is mature already with a minimum number of swings in place so it can also deny the last move higher in wave ((v)) and can be completed already but as far as a pivot from 6732.33 low expect index to extend higher.
FTSE 100 Summary for End Week 4 - 2019FTSE lacking momentum one way or another
Technically we can see that the FTSE 100 remains negatively biased. The (orange) Chikou Span is well below the price line and has yet to define any significant support or resistance levels, which may not help if any further negative Brexit or other political concerns rear their ugly heads. That said a flattening Kijun Sen (blue) line might indicate the possibility of a more positive move as this can act as a magnet. For a more significant signal the Tenkan Sen (red) line needs to positively cross, which appears to be some way off yet.
Fundamentally the strengthening of the pound at the end of week 4 hasn't helped as most of the FTSE 100 constituents conduct business externally of the UK. And of course week 5 sees further shenanigans regarding Brexit. If the government can actually govern for once and find something positive in the next voting session, this may help and confirm a possible trend change going forward.
WAIT FOR NOW
FTSE100 DOUBLE TOP PATTERN: ANALYSISFTSE100 HAS REJECTED THE KEY RESISTANCE AND WITH RETAIL TRADERS NET LONG WE COULD
SEE THIS MARKET MOVE LOWER. CURRENTLY PRICE LOOKS TO BE FORMING A DOUBLE TOP PATTERN
THE DAILY CHART. IF THIS PATTERN COMPLETES WE EXPECT THE NECKLINE TO ACT AS RESISTANCE
WITH TARGETS BEEING THE KEY WEEKLY TRENDLINE.
FTSE100 Short !The price has returned to fall with the crossing of the dynamic resistance identified by the EMA 200 and 20 weekly at about 7000 points, and then immediately rejected by 150 points on the downside. The level 7000 is a crucial barrier for the direction in the short term: until it will remain below, the most plausible target is the support in the 6400 area; an upside break would lead to the cancellation of the current trend, bearish for 7 months. With an unstable government, low approval for May and the brexit back on the roadmap, the most probable road for FTSE 100 is to continue this downtrend at least up to the support just mentioned at 6400 points. The first target is 50% of the Fibonacci retracement at 6700.
When will the FTSE 100 be in a Bear market?Looking for when the FTSE 100 may enter a Bear Market. Despite the media saying a 20% drop is a signal for a Bear market, the real number is 16%.
Taking a measurement of 16% from the previous high in the summer of 2018 and a 16% drop comes to around 6442.
If price drops below this mark, (red dash line) this could signal the Bears are in full control.
Taking a measurement (purple line)from how far the FTSE dropped in the last recession and price could move to around the 4800 mark.
FTSE 100...Next Buy LevelThis weeks recovery rally is spluttering, and sentiment remains bearish, FTSE 100 is being held down by the downtrend line and Bulls are getting tired, next buy level is 2775, watch and wait, I would guess that we will hit this level by the end of the week or Monday, I think this will be the low and we will see stocks pick up over the next few months in line with my last post on the FTSE index. Don't take my word for it, trade your own plan.
FTSE100 DOWNSIDE CONTINUATIONFTSE looks set for further downside technically despite the current bid we are seeing due to PM May currently being supported by MP's. However, the actual vote does not take place
until this evening and could be a very different story by 5pm GMT. If we see bearish price action at the resistance we could look for further downside to come in this market.
FTSE 100 (UKX) Monthly Timeframe BuyThe FTSE100 index is approaching a critical 2.6 retracement level of the previous uptrend, and it could be good time to buy. However, with the Brexit news and Theresa May woes, just hold your horses for a bit. The index is still largely in a sell-off fueled by the lack of confidence surrounding the Brexit deal and seemingly the vote to be held tomorrow. The trendline shows a perfect uptrend with around 7 touches, so maybe the trend is about to end. Who knows.
SP500, Similar fractals, Is this the comming financial crisis?
Hi folks, this is my first time posting an idea/"short" analysis publicly, hope you'll enjoy it
This is the chart from SP500, I mirrored 2007 financial crisis structure, unedited, raw and pure, pasted it below our chart, checked the fractals/similarity, and it's deadly alike.
With the somewhat positive sentiment from OPEC and 90 Days truce between president Xi Jinping and Donald Trump we have something that might bring the SP500 back to "normal" comming weeks, months.
Once the truce resolves, I bet we'll get into a "fear" phase... Nothing is new in the stock market... said J Livermore... and I concur.
Not sure of how it was back in 2007, but perhaps some of you older folks remember what caused the "back to normal" phase... and we can compare...
Stay safe or play it safely folks.
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Possible Bearish UK MarketLast post: May 17th. See chart .
Review: Price was trying to make new all-time highs.
Update: The market has reversed since then and has now broken below a major support area.
Conclusion: We need to see if price will remain below the support area then we can look for shorting opportunities.
Any comments or questions, do not hesitate to leave them below. Give us the thumbs up if you share our sentiments!
Sublime Trading
UK banks outperform FTSE 100 before stress test resultsUK banks outperformed the benchmark for UK shares during the rout in global stock markets that began in October. UK bank share prices are down over the past two months, but by less than the FTSE 100 index.
Positive expectations for stress test results have played a role in limiting the damage to UK bank shares.