ridethepig | FTSEMIB📍 This diagram comes after the conversation with @lu1977hk, and is no more imaginative than the positional flows across the global equity board.
In Italian Equities the initial offensive targets for sellers come in at 18,466; 17,643 and 16,819 from a "fibs perspective". The connection of further downside in European and Global Equities is more or less the same sort of difficulty all round. Think of this like a composer trying to adapt the pianist to enter into the full orchestra. FTSEMIB shorts are another to add to the basket.
French Equities:
German Equities:
Eurostoxx:
The theme appears to be across the board on an epic level, with the whole series of European markets in a downwards move towards support. In reality, however, this manoeuvring shakeout is going to be strategically important from a positioning perspective for when we are loading the lows (we will cover that later in 2021).
Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Ftsemibindex
🥊Not even Winston Churchill can save the FTSE from free-fall🐻The FTSE 100 chart on the monthly looks pretty bad.
We can see bearish divergence since 2007, with the market rally going off very little momentum, it briefly touched the oversold area once in 12+ years, which shows a lack of strong buying, and a bubble in the market.
The first 2 arrows show the FTSE toying with the idea of breaking the Ichimoku Cloud (a versatile indicator that defines support and resistance), with the financial arrow showing that we dropped right through it.
The bubble has now popped, the question is can we re-inflate it?
What's happening in the UK right now on the macro front
- Lockdown fully ends around July 4th
- Locals scared to leave the house
- 6 month mortgage holidays and credit card debt
- Furlough scheme is the only thing keeping people off the streets from rioting
- Businesses that were unprofitable being bailed out
- Brexit
- Peaceful protests
UK is a nation built on debt, nobody has savings (well very few).
This can be seen with 6 month mortgage holidays, the UK government paying people to stay at home and not work, badly run businesses getting bailed out.
Even the airlines cannot lose a month without going under.
With fear and lack of growth, where is the UK going to get power to recover from its all-time highs?
When the furlough ends, many on it will lose their jobs. And when the mortgage holidays end and people have no money to pay for it, what will happen next? I see lots of down-side.
There are a lot of bear cases for the FTSE 100, and very few positives.
The UK will need a sharp rebound, V-shaped for the FTSE to keep moving upwards. For now, the rally is based on hope and government stimulus, which is moving us up, will it continue?.
If you like my macro view on markets, check out my other charts as I often give macro updates on major markets like Gold, S&P, oil etc.
FTSE MIB - POTENTIAL BOUNCE FOR ONE MORE WAVE DOWNFTSE MIB has broken the main uptrend on daily chart. Bullish divergence for a potential bounce, but i'm expecting one more wave down.