Bitcoin in times of high interest ratesHey there!
I was looking at the ugly charts of cryptocurrencies when I wanted to update my previous ideas.
As I mentioned before, the buying area is around this level (green box). My main target is still between 12-14k.
But in view of the fact and compared to the "corona crash" (to give it a name) at this time it will be different IMO.
-very high interest rates
-times of stagflation (there are many reasons for this - war in Ukraine is just a part of it)
-conflicts getting louder between China and USA
-etc
The fuel of crypto are negative interest rates (I call it gambling money).
As long as we won't see negative interest rates, I stay away from investing in crypto (holding coins).
Of course, I will try spot buys but when I do, then with USDT.
To bring the analysis to an end: We could see 4 digit price for Bitcoin.
Stay safe!
FTX
COIN LONG after a reversalCOIN's long downtrend reversed after signs of the end of the crypto winter
and SBF brought to justice to clean up the crypto industry.
Moving averages show the inflection and new uptrend.
On the volume profile, the price rose over the POC line showing
that buying pressure exceeds selling pressure.
The chart pattern shows a double bottom late December
and this past Monday clearly establishing a key support level.
This looks to be a good swing long with a target being the
0.5 fib level of the retracement from the downtrend.
Call option contracts are a good alternative to a sizeable
trade of stock.
SPX 500 HistoryIf we take a look a the RSI on a monthly for the SPX 500 over the last 70 years we can see a pattern emerge , the RSI level 42.30 seems to be a very important level where many rally's have started.
Over the last 70 years price has bounced off this level 10 times including the last bounce in 2022 , once price bounces off this level it signals a multi month rally.
1949
1957
1962
1978
1982
1987
1990
2011
2020
2022
There have been only three times where SPX has bounced off this level and failed to rally .
1969
2001
2008
Its amazing how in 70 years we only had 13 of these signals fire off . This could very well be a once in a life time opportunity to get into the market .
The SPX 500 has a much higher probability to rally than not based the historical data on this chart. It is possible that we going into a decade long contraction , similar to 1950-1960 where you can get all time highs and rally's but then followed with years sideways accumulation.
2022 - The Year in Crypto MarketsHi Traders, Investors and Speculators 📈📉
Ev here. Been trading crypto since 2017 and later got into stocks. I have 3 board exams on financial markets and studied economics from a top tier university for a year. Daytime job - Math Teacher. 👩🏫
2022 has not been the best year for cryptocurrencies. Infact, many popular news outlets are proclaiming that 2022 was the death of crypto. Or that it could be, atleast.
As if a long, dry, crypto winter wasn't bad enough, we watched as the market started to unravel at its seams. The first major shockwave that hit the market, was the collapse of LUNA and stablecoin Terra. (Ofcourse the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes weren't helping either.) The crypto industry in TOTAL is a highly connected and integrated market. It is therefore no surprise, that when LUNA crashed, many companies had suffered serious losses from which they could not recover. Celsius had roughly 1.7 million customers and more than $10 billion in assets, but the market conditions ultimately led them to bankruptcy. Many people on the Terra platform had taken out loans in the stablecoin and used LUNA as collateral. When LUNA's value began to drop along with the overall market decline, it impaired the collateral for many of the stablecoin loans. Many of the borrowers, in turn, couldn't repay these loans because they had used the stablecoins to purchase other investments that had themselves dropped in value. The interconnections among all of these transactions amounted to a 'death spiral' that dragged down LUNA and TerraUSD simultaneously and had negative effects on many investors' portfolios.
Remember that back in March, the year's first major hackers hit the market. Hackers targeted the Ronin network, which supports Axie Infinity blockchain gaming platform, and stole $625 million, making it the largest cryptocurrency theft to date. It didn't stop there. Many other major crypto platforms, such as Binance and FTX, were also hacked in 2022, making it the year with the most hacks and highest amounts stolen up to date.
Confidence in crypto markets continued to decline, and then shocking revelations around FTX and sister company Alameda Research came to light in a November CoinDesk article. Binance CEO CZ immediately and publicly expressed concerns around FTX's solvency and ability to sustain its self-issued token, FTT . Traders began to withdraw funds from FTX. The FTT price fell from roughly $26 to $1 in just a few days and FTX paused customer withdrawals. FTT was discovered to be insolvent, having misused customer deposits and funds. FTX filed for bankruptcy protection in late November. The previous bailout of BlockFi was reversed and BlockFi was back into bankruptcy court. Crypto markets crashed, again.
It is important to note that the failures we’ve seen this year have NOT been caused by a failure of the underlying blockchain technology. Ethereum underwent a successful upgrade in 2022, transitioning from a proof-of-work blockchain to a proof-of-stake blockchain. The tokenomics of Ethereum have also changed significantly, which many believe will benefit the future of the ETH ecosystem.
2023 may start bleak, considering talks of a recession, cryptocurrency regulations and the fact that many cryptocurrency companies and their founders are facing bankruptcy and even the threat of imprisonment. But, the future of blockchain remains! Crypto will survive, because it is revolutionary and as a wise businessman once said - If you want to be successful, invent something that makes the previous version absolute.
🎁 And remember, from all of us at CryptoCheck 🎁
🎁Happy 🎁 Festive Season ✨
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Where will BITCOIN be headed in 2023?!Hi guys, Chern Yu here back again for a new year!
Took a 2 weeks break from the last week of dec and I am back again to smash the markets.
I will be talking about some fundamentals revolving around bitcoin and the crypto market in general.
2022 recap:
1. BITCOIN has fallen a grand total of ~67% for the entirety of 2022.
2. Luna's parabolic crash along with FTX's cataclysmic downfall resulted in large amount of assets outflow from the crypto market.
3. BTC/USD was no exception and many companies such as Three Arrows and Celcius fell to the hands of cryptocurrency.
4. SBF is still pending investigations and recently pleaded not guilty.
The multiple stimulus has rocked the crypto market and has yet to stabilise from the recent headwinds.
USD-tether continues to be controversial while Huobi global has recently been laying off staffs in an extremely suspicious manner.
However, what is there to come for 2023? Will bitcoin start to recover? Will the crypto market finally stabilize?
2023 forecast:
1. Personally I believe that the crypto market can continue to take a further dip and clear out the monthly low that I have identified on a technical front. Bitcoin could continue to scale up or retrace to the next point of interest at ~37k.
2. The market definitely requires some more time to stabilise and accumulate.
3. For long term investing and as a big crypto fan myself, I believe price is at a very discounted level at the moment.
4. Further macro environment have increased risk on sentiments from the US Fed slowing down the rate hikes and institutional investors begin to take on more risk. This is favourable to the crypto market as we can potentially see increased asset inflows. (will be doing a chart on the total crypto market cap in due time)
5. However, recession is soon to take place and the world economy is entering or currently in a dull phase, for retail investors, it may be difficult to see asset inflows to the crypto market on this specific front.
I believe that the current BTC/USD price is very discounted and we could potentially ride the bullish retracement or movement up to ~37k at the very least.
Let us continue to stay vigilant in the market and continue to react to different market conditions, adverse or favorable.
Keep grinding and LFG!
Regards,
Chern Yu
🔥THE WORST YEAR FOR CRYPTO: 2022 OVERVIEW AND 2023 FORECAST✅🔥Hi friends! Bitcoin fall from $41 500 to $15 500 by 42% this year. 2022 was an amazing year, especially if you are trading using downtrend strategies. But who will be the winner in 2023? Long or short traders? Read more in this idea!
📊
WHAT WERE THE MAIN REASON FOR BTC DUMP IN 2022?
1.
LUNA, UST, and Do Kwon are the first such major crash this year. The algorithmic stablecoin UST lost its peg to $ and pulled down the LUNA token, which it was backed by.
Terra LUNA had one of the largest amounts of Bitcoin. In total, they had about 81,000 BTC in their wallets, but this did not save them from the fall. LUNA was top-10 altcoin by capitalization but fall from $110 to $0.01.
BTC fell from $31 000 to $17 900 by 44%.
2. FTX, FTT and Sam Bankman-Fried. At that moment, it seems like BTC begin to recover and already reached $21 500 after the 4 month consolidation (accumulation) from June to November. CZ tweeted about FTT sell off just only opened eyes to the problem of the #2 exchange.
🚩 Bitcoin fell to $15 500 but actually, it`s not a huge dump, as was all the year before. This fact indicates that there are almost no sellers in the markets and recovery is highly possible.
📊 THIS HAPPENED FOR THE FIRST TIME IN THE BITCOIN HISTORY
The Q1 2022 started with a small fall, but after this, the series of negative events in the cryptocurrency market pushed the price of bitcoin lower and lower. Now we should say that this is the worst year ever.
✅ All 4 quarters (Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4) will close at loss FOR THE FIRST TIME IN BTC HISTORY.
📊 THE PREDICTIONS FOR BTC IN 2023
I name this year THE YEAR OF RECOVERY for the crypto market. BTC will reach $32k as a pullback to this year’s dump with a 95% probability. I think that the #1 crypto has a 70% probability test of $45k.
✅ But first, the price can update the lows and reach $10-12k. So if you are a trader , it will be a really good year because of its volatility.
If you are a long-term trader or investor , I would be in the market by 20-40% to not miss the possible growth. Another part of the deposit leaves for buying lower at $10-12k or after making new HH and HL at $21-22k.
It will be interesting to check the results in a year.
Friends, what is your target for BTC in 2023? Write your target at the comments. Please, don`t write $200-300k :)
💻Friends, press the "boost"🚀 button, write comments and share with your friends - it will be the best THANK YOU.
P.S. Personally, I open an entry if the price shows it according to my strategy.
Always do your analysis before making a trade.
ITS BONKABOLIC! LET'S SEE HOW THIS CHANNEL PLAYS OUT.
Love it or hate it, hit that thumbs up and share your thoughts below!
Every day the charts provide new information. You have to adjust or get REKT.
Don't trade with what you're not willing to lose. Safe Trading, Calculate Your Risk/Reward & Collect!
This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only.
Solana 1 Hourly Hitting Resistance Will Come Back Below $10.00 There's been some nice volatility on Solana. Overbought on RSI, Stochastic RSI, and MACD on the 1 hourly. We're at the top of the 1 hour wave crest and we're hitting resistance. We should fall back into the channel. Still a bearish trend.
Much peace, love, health, and wealth.
Solana headed back to $23? (Elliott Wave Analysis)Solana has completed a powerful impulsive wave up. All Fibonacci price and time ratios are perfect for this impulse pattern, as well as channeling, structure, and complexity. The expected retracement for Wave-A is $23. Minimum target is $58. This will create an excellent buying opportunity because the following wave-B will likely create new all time highs, and then the following impulse after wave-C could take Solana to incredibly high prices. Even as high as $10,000 in a few years.
For now, the tail risk of a global economic crisis is high and this will likely bring down all of the crypto markets. Solana being one of the most volatile and having increased by such a dramatic amount could also have one of the largest corrections.
Should be noted I don't think I've ever seen such a picture perfect impulse pattern at this timeframe on a crypto before. Seems like Solana is almost in a pattern of it's own compared to the vast majority of crypto charts I've analyzed. It may struggle in 2022 while other cryptos gain more regulatory advantage, but long-term it still looks very good, especially in 2023.
SOL Bottom TestingSolana has recently been suffering beatings from the lack of trust in the developers after the fall of FTX. Much of the project's assets were tied up in the crypto exchange, to the point where many of their operations and development was dependent on FTX. This distrust in addition to a slow-down in project development and lack of recovery for SOL has contributed to the recent plummeting we have seen. SOL dumps testing new lows and breaking support relatively regularly after the "big drop" as charted, and may continue down this way.
BTC Shorts - We're going down to $14,000BTC is showing major signs for continuations to the downside.
We are going to likely to shoot down into major magnet level of 14,000/13,800 to be more specific. But we could rally into the 17,000 level before continuing back down.
Plenty of confluences lining up.
Nasdaq Fractal Blackswan Cycles 📈📉The average citizen lacks any real understanding of Central Banking all they know are uneducated talking point from 🐑 that have the same or less power over their lives & the system as a whole that gave rise 2 them at leverage while they are none the wiser they are referred to by the architects of the system as... 🤓👉 ( working class / human capital)
Scandals like Enron, Madoff, & now FTX are just bi-products of easy money policy that gives risk to excessive risk seeking behavior by the 🐑 which the FED understands most be corrected out of the system in order to maintain the 100 yr + trajectory they have done with the United States of America & ensure the survival of the livestock in the farm so the country has a stable to growing labor pool to remain an ongoing concern. There is a reason Steve Jobs didn't care what the peeps in the mailroom complained about and that is cuz its not their system and they have no idea how lucky they are to even be part of it 🧐
This cycle with FTX is just one more demonstration of just how much The Federal Reserve is the market & really knows what they are doing. As painful as the de-risking process the Fed puts the country through can be we can see on the macro that it is indeed a necessary evil to flush out back actors that form during easy 💰 policy cycles ♻️ & before they can grow even larger & more damaging to the system as a whole 🤓
Bear 🐻 markets end in mass graves 💀 so these events are 🔑 2 bringing aboutthe depression phase of the cycle & bottoming out the market before the Fed engineers new growth 📈 Patiently waiting for 2024 💡
BITCOIN: A Crash To $13.7k - $11k Is Brewing ! ! Today ( Christmas, 12/25/2022 ), Bitcoin completed a small "buy the rumor, sell the news" event. Expectations of a 'Santa Rally' were the rumor (pump), while Christmas day was the news (dump).
With the completion of this move, Bitcoin is now teetering on the edge of a cliff! I'm short BTC , targeting $13.7k - $11k .
Bearish BTC catalysts include:
Binance insolvency : The recent FTX collapse has spooked cryptocurrency investors with assets on exchanges. Consequently, investors are removing liquidity from exchanges at a record pace. Most of these outflows have come from Binance, which accounts for >50% of the cryptocurrency spot and derivatives market. If Binance declares insolvency, then we can expect the crypto market to fall by another 50%. If Binance fails, we may expect Tether, Tron, Grayscale, and other exchanges to collapse.
Volatility spike : The cryptocurrency volatility index is at historical lows. Volatility slowdowns typically lead to explosive moves. In this case, we can expect an explosive move to the downside.
United States cryptocurrency regulation : On December 23rd, the US Treasury delayed its tax reporting rules. The US intends to enforce these rules 'soon.' The execution of cryptocurrency tax requirements should drastically affect crypto prices, as Defi protocols and Layer-1 networks will soon be required to collect and send user information to the IRS.
SEC vs. Ripple settlement : The SEC vs. Ripple lawsuit is expected to settle between March and June 2023. It is believed that the SEC will win this lawsuit, causing XRP to be officially recognized as an 'implied' security. Following this case, all Proof-Of-Stake cryptocurrencies will become 'implied' securities, while Proof-Of-Work cryptocurrencies will be recognized as commodities.
I SEE IT COMING CZ Binance FUD is getting serious after the inconvenient CNBC appearance of CZ, removal of last audited files & the large amount of withdrawals last week.
SBF's $250m bail & return to his parents after stealing over $10b seems like a joke, but his past financial aids and donations to election campaigns paid off! and guess what? they will even attack Binance as a revenge!
Binance is a private company and it is not forced to share very detailed financial reports! but Gensler can do whatever he wants.
I will be a happy buyer of $BNB at $200 or lower.
BTC Break Down ScenarioBTC is getting very close to breaking down based on the violent nature of this most recent drop. If it does break down from support here, BTC could head towards 10k by January. I was suspecting a small drop here based on my most recent update, but based on the look of this drop so far we may actually end up making new lows. Normally wave-e wouldn't be so violent which makes me skeptical that my original triangle count will work here.
FTX liquidity issues are likely going to cause some short-term panic over the next few weeks. As prices go lower we could see other companies running into liquidity issues. Especially big BTC miners who hold large amounts of BTC and have been operating at a loss because of low BTC prices.
Chances are if this continues to break down, all my other bullish crypto charts will end up being incorrect and will need to be revised for lower prices. We likely won't see the beginning of a bull market until at least January starting from much lower prices. Break down is "confirmed" at 17k, which I think it is very likely we reach relatively soon.
FTT: Moonshot BoysDoes anybody dare to long this... all it takes is a better than expected restructure and the new leadership offering to make things right and this thing will moon. Do they want to risk one of the largest crypto exchanges, whos interacted wtih a majority of addresses going offline. They could turn this thing around since its already owned mainly by the west and rebuild it. Worth a punt?
btc chart 4h I think that the market is reaching the end of the correction wave as well as the gathering phase in the range between 15532 and 18381, and that a break of this region, as well as the next likely resistance at 20200, will result in prices of 108805 in the medium term.
A Christmas Tale.This year has been a funny one, well actually over the last couple of years we have seen an escalation into what looks like a global recession on the horizon. Brexit, Covid, Ukraine, Trump vs Biden, Boris out, Liz out. Inflation - whatever next?!
I found a couple of cartoons and thought I would put them in a little gallery here. Non are my opinion, but found them relevant to post.
In this day and age;
China might even have a "No Santa policy this year"
And out in the US;
The rest of the world
It's been a strange few months to say the least...
Some countries are driving a message
Whilst some don't have a clue
Incompetent
And finally in the world that is CRYPTO
Have a wonderful holiday season - Happy New Year and all that.
Stay safe traders!
(As above, opinions or cartoons are not my own. I was just sharing in one post).
FTT to lose another 70%?Please 1st of all click the boost 🚀 button if you want me to post more ideas and follow me to support my work! It's absolutely for free.
Hi guys! Hope you are doing well even after the FTT/ FTX liquidity debacle which has been sort of indicated by the chart below two months ago:
Now it seems we are not done yet, as FTT broke down this triangle 📐 and I think there is chance for run to 0.527 and even lower. This would mean another -70% for FTTUSDT from the actual level! Price is currently sitting at key support trendline (blue) but in my opinion it's just matter of time when it will be broken down which could start another brutal selloff. Stay safe!
Check my other stuff in related ideas.
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⚠️Disclaimer: I'm not financial advisor. This is not a financial advice. Do your own due dilingence.
Binance Soars Towards $800 Despite Widespread FUDBinance, a giant in the crypto ecosystem, is gearing up for an important run as it looks towards a new all-time high. With much speculation around a recent audits and interviews, price action is seemingly unaffected as buyers continue to load up on the dip. Interpreting the price action from BNB's all-time low, I believe that it is due to test the $800 mark (or come damn close to it) at some point late in 2023 or early 2024. Considering this pending upside wave as the last in its first cycle (Wave 5), I too fully expect for Binance to make a tremendous drop afterwards.
Making a 32637X move from the lowest price point ($0.00) to the highest (believed to be $800 roughly), at minimum , Binance should drop towards the 38-50% fib levels . 61.8% and 78.6% are also very commonly seen under these circumstances. As a Binance investor, I would personally begin to look for sells/exit near $800. As a user, I would consider switching to another broker or to cold storage. Typically when crypto brokers suffer these sort of sizeable setbacks, withdrawals are frozen. Itll be very interesting to see how this plays out over the next 1-3 years. Until next time, stay safe and whatever you do, don't drown. Surf!
Anyone Out There!? 😁😂👨💻😈#criticalthinking 🧠🔑🤯
Something that means more and more to those listening... FTX! Binance! So on and so too many to name interesting we are here now. Any of you feel skined and thrown about by your leaders and gurus? Have you found new leaders to fill the void the absence of comunity? Be on the watch these leaders are your adversary playing a a friend with a care for the crowd..!
Soon many more will show themselves.
From #SBF to even your favorite, Mr. #bitboycrypto plus too many to count. You have been led astray for their own personal gain... We have seen this before: Are #hexicans safe? #Scam or #cult what's the difference in #crypto maybe it's all to get rich quick??
So, with the development of GPT3.5 #ChatGPT the screaming reason #CriticalThinkingMatters 😎
Don't be misled the #GetRichQuickGurus are out there.. !
No Advice to give just thoughts that I can't shake after the last 8 years in the world of "CRYPTO"
Things 🤷♂️ #Fixed IDK Protect Your Neck!
""KEEP CALM AND MANAGE THY RISK!""
I am The CoinSLayer 👨💻😈