FUD
Using WEEKLY EMA 20 to find the BOTTOMHistorically the weekly EMA 20 has proven itself to be a good place to buy bitcoin in bullruns. Will the WEEKLY EMA 20 serve us again in revealing the bottom?
Find out in the next episode of Bitcoin to the moon.
(Note: W EMA 20 will be around a price point of 20-25k)
Offshore to the top floor - ZECDear traders,
Intro: My name is Hugo, I am 24 years old and trading crypto currencies since late 2017. English is not my main language, however, I will try to explain everything brief and clear. Be aware that I am still in the learning curve. Every idea I post is not financial advice and is only meant for entertainment purposes only.
Analysis: Zcash's volume profile (VPVR) is at the bottom, which might indicate more buying volume than selling volume. Beautiful patterns recurring as pointed out on the chart and fundamentals are, in my opinion, really good. Big players (Grayscale & Gemini) do not seem to care about Bittrex delisting the coin (Tweets of Barry Silbert and Tyler Winklevoss, respectively). Been accumulating this coin for a long time now... Hope it will take off. This is my short-term target, for long-term targets check out Path's chart ;).
Conclusion: Up only, buy.
Goodluck,
Doctor Hugo
TRUMP HAS COVID ~ KUCOIN HACK ~ BITMEX NEWS (dump)-Yurlo
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Price action talk:
There's a lot of bearish FUD news circulating around the space.
#1: KuCoin Hack (200+ million)
#2: Bitmex news (Arthur Hayes facing lawsuits)
#3: Donald trump testing positive for covid and being hospitalized
#4: Biden tests negative for covid (this is bearish again)
$10450 - $10550 looks very weak ~ we've seen little to no bounce from this zone and it's been a day since the drop.
Expecting to see $10,200 for a retest, if that doesn't hold $9950.
We first broke down breaching the support trend line on October 1st ~ which usually is a good indication of upcoming price action that will affect the price action across the crypto community and the stock markets.
I can't be bullish after all the bearish FUD news ~ IMO
The Binary moment of our marketI has become incredibly interesting how the markets (both stock and Bitcoin) sit and hover around the 50% retracement of the big move from a month ago.
I am glad for posterity's sake that on March 24th (a big up day) I put out to many of my trading groups that I called the bottom... in a tounge-in-cheeck joking sort of way... about how my Oatmeal Indicator worked. The day that I noticed Oatmeal (my staple breakfast product) was back on the shelves in the grocery store was "the bottom". It signaled the end, or at least the beginning of the end, of our supply chain disruption and culmination of peak fear and uncertainty.
I think it is important on a more philosophical level the meaning of that observation. That as life showed signs of returning to normal the price of All The Things began to mean revert.
Once again the price of All The Things sit at the halfway point. We are just about to re-open the economy. We don't know if the worst of times is past us of if we might have a resurgence of COVID-19. Information to this end is often contradictory and inconclusive. Therefor the end result of the near future is really a 50/50 shot. Price reflects this prospect as it does all known information in the market.
I cannot say with certainty what will happen as a trader... but as a contrarian trader I will make a call. For well over a month I have consumed the daily feed of Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD). Through all of the 'experts' predicting the end of the world, or the end of markets, or the end of the US Dollar, etc. I've begged the question... "what if it isn't the end of the world?" What if, we do actually decided to continue this great experiment called civilization after 1918, 1665, or 1347? I think in the end we will decide that the REWARD of living in our modern, globalized world is worth the RISK of which we have just been reminded.
My call, just go against the prevailing media sentiment, is that we will be back at the market highs by the November election. Happy trading :)
BTC/USDT What will happen on 21 Apr ?BINANCE:BTC/USDT What will happen on 21 Apr ?
Long to 8.2k breaking 1D MA 200 ?
Short to 6.2k remaining under 1D MA 200 ?
Buy & hold : FUD/FOMO intensifies ?
Breaking above 8.2k and remaining at this price for one month would attract investors for the halving incoming
Remaining at 6.2k would mean that BTC is becoming a stablecoin (and attract more investors ? ^^)
Buy & hold : BVOL increasing and go back to 4.5k ?
Nobody is able to predict the future.
Only noobs are shorting TSLA here. It will go above 1000.First of all I like to emphasize how extremely happy I am about this rally.
The shorters really had it coming. The incredible amount of arrogance they displayed just had to be punished. And a severe punishment they did receive.
Now of course everyone is thinking that this here has been the top. However, if it would have been the top, the correction would have been much more severe.
Instead, we saw a correction pattern in a huge continued rally.
It really is very similar to the huge runup in 2013. Therefore I think we'll continue up above 1000, much to the dismay of the poor shorters, who are really poor now
in the truest sense of the word.
Anyone who doesn't understand why Tesla has this rally, why they are so disruptive, why they will grow much more, should really do some reading on disruptive
technologies and Kondratiev cycles. This company marks the beginning of a new era of rapid innovation. Tesla is much more than a car company. They build
solar arrays. They build energy storage batteries for renewable energy farms. They are also a software company. They are soon an autonomous carsharing fleet
company. They have the most advanced AI neuralnet, years ahead of anyone else. They have by far the biggest supercharger network. The lead to the other carmakers
who are struggling to even build the first generation Model S, is just INCREASING, not decreasing.
Tesla is going to change the world. It already is doing so. Anyone who doesn't understand that, should really do some proper research, and not only read CNBC clickbait news
headlines and FUD.
Bitcoin is felling the coronavirus, and tradicional markets FUDHello traders,
Here is an idea of what can happen next with bitcoin, he brokes an important support level, after rejecting the important resistance line, and now he is probably going to test the long term support line. Since we remain above this Support we still in a uptrend in short medium term.
The traditional markets is in state of chaos at the moment thanks to the fear of the coronavirus, after the falls in the main American and Asian index, and this is reflected the price of all assets in the world.
Always use stop losses.
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Bitcoin - A Visit Into The Monthly From my last post to now, what did you observe? If we look into the lower timeframes, we notice one thing:
- we get scared.
- we read headlines.
- we cloud our judgment.
The most successful and rewarding trades of all are always done on a macro scale. With this simple fact we must learn to be patient and trust in the macro timeframes.
IMO , this is a long. A monthly open long as we head towards our next monthly resistance.
That's all for now.
Dealing with FUDSo, not a good one last week, would have been better to stick to cost average on fridays, but misinterpretation is part of the game. As Coinvestors the only thing to avoid is miscalculation of positions and to buy in with too much to early. Believe me, I did that a lot, so I learnt to set my posistions in the right size, to participate in the market on a support and to have enough fiat left to buy more should the market drop.
FUD - Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt
Last years rally has set greed in the crypto market to a another level, but this always happend, if something is growing bigger.
Greed is good !?
Where's greed, there is always fear around the corner...fear of loosing money by selling to early, fear of waiting to long to hit the market bigtime, fear to set a stop and miss a bullrun, fear to set no stop in a volatile market and so on....
This is the stuff EVERY bigplayer, daytrader, coinvestor and ordenary Joe invesot has to deal with...and there is no patent how to overcome fear that leads to buying high (fear of missing the run) and selling low (panic in a bear market).
But with the simple strategy of informing ourselves in crypto world on a individual but regular bases and cost averaging selected coins and project we believe in we have a mighty weapon in hand.
The #coinvestorarmy should follow this simple rules everytime the make a crypto buy and trade
ASK YOURSELF EVERYTIME
- Is the Coin/Token I wanna get worth its market cap
- is ther e a true benefit in the oin/Token I wanna get
- am I in for short term (<1 month), midterm (2-12 months) or longterm (> 1 year)
ALWAYS REMEMBER
- you didn't loose anything until you sell
- Think twice before you sell AND buy
- Panic was never a good advicer
- Don't invest more then you can loose
- High risk come rarly with high reward when feelings and only opinion from others are involved
How to play the breakouts!?!Lately, there has been a lot of buzz about BTC! Will it breakout or not? In the end, it did not as we predicted with the accuracy of a surgent in our most viewed post till now that you can find in RELATED IDEAS.
Here is a nice school example of how ETH does the breakouts and probably similar pattern will be played in the near future. We will write more about that in the next posts but for now, let's focus on the lessons.
A double top has been a pattern that ETH forms quiet often. Probably cause of false hopes when people just wait for ETH to do the same run as BTC and then hope gets denied or to say it better - run postponed!
It happened before (2017), it happened in the near past (2019) and it will probably happen in the near future.
In order to get the best return in time (RIT) and not only the best return on investment (ROI), it's important to know when to expect the moon so a trader can optimize his or her positions.
Actually, trading is not about buying at the cheapest price, but buying (or selling) close to the time when the price will move the most. So when is that?
In this example, it's clear that after breakout retest!
People usually FOMO when the breakout happens but history shows that in most cases it will be retested.
However, at the point of best entry (RIT), some start to get scared that the breakout was not successful.
Some might even sell in panic (FUD - Fear, uncertainty, and doubt).
This post is made in order to remember what to do and how to work with your emotions (fear, anger,...) when we are close to breakouts.
Buy the retest! Patience is always the key. Keep calm, use the knowledge and you should be fine.
Take care and GL!
PS: You can see Elliot Waves count in this example also, but let's leave that for some other occasion.
For now, it is just important to know that in this example wave 4 needs to be higher than wave 1.
5 minute h&s inside 30minute h&s's right shoulder triggersA 5 minute chart head and shoulder pattern hidden inside the right shoulder of a 30 minute charts head and shoulder pattern has triggered and reached its drop target sending price action down to the neckline of the 30 minute head and shoulder pattern. If the 30 minute h&s pattern triggers it's drop target is 9.6k or so. Considering we have gaps on the CME futures contracts to fill around 8500 odds are very good we will continue to dip lower so I think it's no coincidence that on the eve of the G20 summit at which they will be discussing unilaterally applying the FATF's new universal rules on crypto that the exchange bittrue suffers a big hack and price plummets setting the stage with pre FUD for G20 to employ even more FUDmongering. So I anticipate even more FUD from G20 to take the price even further doesn't to the 39% retracement support line at 8504 to fill all th gaps on thee CME futures. They say in stocks "All gaps must get filled" and while statistically 91.4% of all up gaps do get filled her's still that .6% of the time gaps don't get filled so i is very wise to ladder back in portions of your position on the way to 8504 because here's np guarantee we reach the bottom gap. That's what I will be doing anyways of course this is no financial advice and just my opinion so take from it whatever you will. Thanks for reading and good luck!
BTC in a bear market till 2020!!! (Updated)So finally the FOMO has ended, what a wild ride it was. It honestly blew my last prediction by a few thousand, still not in comparison to the 2017 bull run by no means but the delusion was strong. To be honest the 2019 run never had the momentum needed to replicate the 2017 run, nor create a new ATH. By taking the DEC 18th 2018 low and drawing 45 degrees from it as you can see on the chart the price stayed below the 45 degree angle the whole time until yesterdays June 26th 2019 brief moment above it. In the world of Gann it is a big deal if the cycle started below the 45 degree angle and never even rose above, it means there was never any momentum in the first place. Without the proper momentum that means there was never going to be a bull market, there never was going to be a new ATH, and the FOMO never had a chance. So since reality has set in finally we can continue with the bear market we were always in, and will continue to be in till 2020. On the way down I do see a few potential areas that will encounter strong support and more than likely an attempt to revive BTC, one being at the 7226.06 mark. At that mark there are several things happening there, the first and most obvious is the 0.618 fib, which was drawn from the DEC 18th 2018 low to the June 26th 2019 high. The second interesting indication of strong support at the 7226.06 mark is the 8/1 angle (orange) from the previous 2017 cycle and the 3/1 angle (purple) from the current cycle we are in. They cross at the 7226.06 mark and create a time cluster, which in the world of Gann is something to always keep an eye on. The extremely interesting thing about that level is both the 0.618 fib and the time cluster are at the exact price of 7226.06, so that is definitely an area to observe on our descent down. Once we pass the 7226.06 mark, and I am highly confident we will, we should not have any more bumps in the road till we get to the obvious low of the DEC 15th 2018 bottom of 3122.98. This will also be another level where they will try to revive BTC and create upward momentum, in my opinion they will not be successful. If we do manage to break lower that the 3122.98 mark, we should continue down till we reach the 1754.78 mark, at this point we could be have finally hit bottom, if so we will have ended the current cycle and will resume upwards momentum. In the event that the downward momentum is so strong, coupled with FUD, and the desire to acquire cheap coin. There is a possibility we could go even lower that the 1754.78 mark. The next few targets I have identified would be 883.74 and 730.34. Either one of these targets are highly unlikely, but we have to remember with BTC anything is possible. Regardless the bear market continues and we will not have a chance to see the possibility of a bottom till around late February of 2020 in my opinion. I do think we will see some strong downward momentum around DEC 15th-17th 2019, but I just think this will be the final nail in the coffin that will give us that last mighty push downward to reaching the true bottom that I believe will come in February of 2020. Cheers all, happy trading...
Where do we stop? (ETC Correction)Well if you are a lot like me, you thought the correction was going to be swift and brutal, yet as it turns out we may have already hit the lows and the Bull Rally, fake or otherwise, may very well still be in effect! Just look at how even with extremely low volumes we are still trading in an increasing pattern with dips that lead right into 10% gains! Therefor we have to take into account that although we are absolutely still in a correction, and will be for likely another week, we might not see another 30% leg down, we might only see the local lows that were achieved early last week!
This is why I have to price targets, the purple and yellow lines. The purple has us "triple bottom" or Double Bottom the lowest low so far ($7.35), the Orange has us correcting to the previous low ($6.7). I believe both are realistic expectations, but the likelihood is up in the air. Whales could come in tonight or tomorrow and absolutely assault the market with massive dumps and incredible volume, or low volume trading can have us ticking ever so slightly higher with higher lows and higher highs. Personally, I think the 7.35 range is the most likely to occur otherwise the 6.7 would have came within bow shot already. However, as I said, anything is possible in Crypto!
What do you guys think?
Understanding Bitcoin Trend. Past, present and future.Hoping to keep this fairly simple. Firstly, I'm posting this as a direct response to poster MrRenev's OP in which he mentioned cryptocurrencies, bitcoin, ICOs etc should be illegal. It is obvious in his post that he's trying to create FUD pretty desperately, because he mentions things like 'crypto trading is not halal/kosher' etc. among many other things. The post is excruciatingly long, and I'm sure many over here have read it, hopefully with an open mind, but the bashing he received is pretty well deserved, not only because of his super obvious social manipulation tactics, but also because his comments and rebuttals are beyond offensive (like he offered to buy me out in the future to wipe him after he takes a dump and keep me as a servant or something along those lines).
Look, you can write your opinion, you can do your TA, some people do it for fun, some people do it to enhance their own ability (the more you teach, the better YOU become), and some people do it because they want themselves as well as others to succeed. You have a very small percentage of people who are desperate like MrRenev. Maybe they don't have an educational background in finance, economics, commerce, etc. Maybe they started trading after watching some videos on Youtube, and picked up some very good knowledge, however became overconfident (or thought they are smarter than they actually are) and lost a lot of money. I myself have made money, I've lost money. However anything I've lost, I've taken full responsibility for it. Yes market manipulations exist. Yes there are things beyond our control. But our decisions are ours, if we leveraged 100x and lost, we should take full responsibility of it. There's responsible, calculated trading, and there's trading that's basically gambling. So if you gamble and lose, don't try to use social manipulation to get back what you lost. That's just sleazy.
Anyways, since MrRenev commented would you trust established banks, organizations, monetary systems in place or (according to him) new, up and coming things like Bitcoin or Cryptocurrency, I'd like to make the same kind of COUNTER-APPEAL. Would you trust a no-name, no-face, disrespectful troll like MrRenev, who has no educational/career background disclosed or verified, or someone who actually has a degree in Economics from a renowned university when it comes to anything related to Economics? Okay intro out, now back to the analysis of Bitcoin. I'm using Coinbase as a base, but you can use the same concept overall.
A. Trends and Cycles: Most of us are aware of economic cycles. So the same is the case with BTC. If you look at the graph above you'll notice that BTC technically went through accumulation/expansion period between 2015 and 2017. I know some of you might disagree and point out bull/bear markets during these periods, and you are correct if you want to break down everything in shorter periods. I'm looking at the bigger picture however, so the smaller bull/bear market periods do fit into the grander scheme of things. Here are my reasons:
1. Historic Indicators: I'm using RSI, MFI, ChandeMO in conjunction with the Weekly Candles. What do we see here? Take a look at between May 2015 and Dec 2017.
Around May 2015, RSI levels started @ <38 and didn't peak 80+ levels until Jun 2016. During this time, the average RSI (just approximating it eye-balling at the RSI graph) was around 45 I would say. This lasted for 1 year.
Now starting in June 2016 until Dec 2017, RSI levels maintained an average level of around 70, and bounced off lows of approximately 55 a few times. Peaked 80 or above levels about 12 times during this period.
And that's just RSI. MFI levels maintained around 60 during the first phase and around 78 during the second (uptrend) phase. Overall around 70 I think.
Chande Momentum Oscillator is such a good tool to understand market momentum but not always used but it is one of the most reliable. What does ChandeMO show? CONSISTENTLY above the ZERO line, with a couple outliers where momentum shifted to below zero (bearish). Common things like MACD and Awesome Oscillator paints a simpler but similar picture.
Now let's switch to post Dec 2017 until Dec 2018. What do we see?
RSI plummets, from the peak of 90 all the way down to 29 levels. During this period, RSI maintained a DECLINING average of 50, however keep in mind, this was a DECLINING AVERAGE, so bearish trend is definitely confirmed. What about MFI? All the "smart money" coming in? Averaged around a paltry 40.
Most of all, Chande MO, shows us just how deep the bear market was. Went below the ZERO line, and basically maintained a -40 trendline during this entire period. Awesome Oscillator however tells us that bearish divergence is decreasing. That's because the time it is taking to get back to the zero line and make a hill over the zero line is decreasing as you can see. In fact for the first time since April 2018, AO has painted bars over the zero line on the weekly candles (the past couple weeks). MACD is looking good as well. We've broken out of these negative zones since turn of the year.
RSI has risen from that low all the way to 71 currently, and you see a gradual increase. MFI paints the same picture, with more and more money coming in, and MFI levels increasing from around 20 to 90+ currently. ChandeMO has moved over the zero line since Jan 2019 and maintaining. There will be pullbacks, and we would hope for more of the same as was in the past because that is a sign of a healthy (relative) market. Ideally we would like RSI, MFI to maintain between 50 and 60 levels over the next year or so, and have a few bursts towards the top a few times. We would want ChandeMO to maintain a trendline over zero consistently.
2. The Future: So what does this tell us for the future. If Fundamentals remain constant or get positive boosts, then this accumulation/uptrend will continue. Just take a look at how many days it took for the Accumulation/Uptrend phase to materialize historically between May 2015 and Dec 2017... 900+ days. Compared to that, the bear trend (assuming it is over, I'll address the assumption in the next few lines) lasted a measly 364 days. And that IS A GOOD THING! Why? That tells us there are investors, people, who are interested in BTC. BTC isn't dying off, and neither are legitimate cryptocurrencies with legit uses. Otherwise it would've continued the fall, momentum wouldn't have changed, and you'd have seen lower highs. That isn't what we're seeing. So everything is looking good, and that's really great news for continued interest in BTC, Cryptocurrencies, Blockchain tech, etc. As long as fundamentals hold, there's a bright future for electronic currency/credit.
Look we don't know what tomorrow will bring for sure. As I'm typing this I might just drop dead. The world might spontaneously blow up into a nuclear warzone. Anything can happen, positive or negative. At the end of the day, we have our biases and our own interests. Ofcourse I'm invested in BTC and Cryptocurrencies. I left my job so I can do this and be a free man and live my life and not work a 9-5 job for the next 30-40 years. BUT I'm not blind and I'm not stupid. I wouldn't get into this if I didn't understand the historic trends. I wouldn't get into this if I didn't have a solid background in Economics and Finances. And the risks I am taking, are calculated. I've made mistakes and lost (noob mistakes like buying FET.AI during the first hour of being launched, and I've not made that mistake again). And that's how you can make it here. If you make a mistake, take a good hard look at yourself and ask some very important questions. Did you lose because you lack the technical know-how or was it because of lack of experience? Are you an avid reader who will spend hours reading related news/posts every single day? Do you learn from your mistakes or do you always go by gut-feelings? Do you want to risk losing 200% of your investment (when you gamble to earn the same within a short period of time) or do you want to take small profits like 2%, 5%, 10% on a daily basis and understand exponential growth?
Don't let others instill fear in you and don't let others exploit you by creating false sense of hope. Find the balance, read, read, read. Knowledge is power. Keep a level head, understand markets and global economies and whenever you take risks, take calculated risks so you can recover. Be a good human being, help yourself and others. Don't be like MrRenev. Good luck to everyone and I hope the future is bright for all of us (even MrRenev).
BTC Long-term view BITSTAMP:BTCUSD It looks like price action is very similar to May 2014 when bitcoin rose up to previous resistance only to fall hard. With this outlook, we still have at least another year or two before bitcoin is ready to see new highs and we could see a longer accumulation zone under the lows from this year. I don’t think the accumulation zone will last as long as it did a few years back, but i would love to buy some under $3000. With this outlook, i think we will see that opportunity again, but not before we meet the resistance around $6000. Many alts will see new lows and many will die so whatever you do don’t fomo and stay patient