Cardano Is This The Bottom In For $ADA?Many see $ADA as a solid blockchain that should be competing with the likes of $ETH. Price wise it has seen better days and if you held Cardano throughout this long bear action, then the constant downward action could not have made you a happy boy or a girl. Short of another $BTC FUD dump dive, ADA is showing signs of a reversal. The falling wedge completion and the historic support trend-line appear to be meeting up finally which might signal the beginning of a new trend. Looking at the 1 day chart, Bollinger Bands are hinting at a push up, Stoch RSI is finally showing signs at the bottom of curling up and the MACD might finally not saucer (yet again) and flip positive. The next week we should know whether the bull is back or not for Cardano.
This is not financial advice, just my belly button musing
FUD
BTC/USDT Dumped hard! Will we see 8500 soon?BTC tanked!
Think it definitely had something to do with the Binance hack news and the SEC news also :thumbsdown: it is never ending.
Overall down trend line was tested and holding for now but has broken through the current up trend line. Im a bit worried about that huge wick that managed to break through the overall down trend line - unusually high volume there also.
RSI is oversold at 24 and MACD not looking good either.
If it breaks through the down trend line again, Im thinking it will go to 9288 and then next sup after that is 8490.
btc trend: FA & TA I see many people saying btc is going to break support level, fall below 6k, remain in a bear trend for years before this market reverses. There is a lot of speculation that tether is going to blow up and will cause btc and all other coins to plummet in price.
On the other side, many people are saying the market has corrected, we have broken resistance, and are gaining momentum for a powerful upward move to 20k+.
I believe the market is going through a major correction and if your like me, new to trading and have lost money from false signals; this is a great time to practice patience, trade short, and simply wait for the market to stabilize. Looking at btc from a TA standpoint, a 1-2 year correction is not only possible but would absolutely make sense. With that being said, I believe most chartists do not factor in fundamental analysis that makes btc movement so unpredictable and why btc always exceeds expectations despite all the FUD in this space. I believe in the technology behind cryptocurrencies and in 1-2 years this technology will grow exponentially, and the block-chain will become part of everyday life and eventually become a multi- trillion dollar market.
On the chart I have drawn some possible support/ resistance (buy/ sell) points we may see btc test in the coming days. Just keep in mind the following:
As of right now, we ARE still in a bear market.
There are still a ton of lil baby pussy ass weak hands holding btc that will sell for a loss the moment the market bleeds again.
There are many people who do not understand this technology who will spread FUD in the market if you believe in this tech like I do, you will HODL.
IGNORE THE FUD!!!Hi guys, what's coin on?
If you just take a look into twitter community today, you can see enormous amount of people trying to sread a FUD, and you have to ask yourself, what is the reason for that.
I dont know a shit about FA to be honest, but when you look at TA and if you draw some simple lines, we can see that NEO has found solid support in $113-$116 range on the bottom of the channel. RSI is very low on a 4 hour chart, and started to moving up, and 4 hour MACD, is about to cross, which is a very bullish sign.
We are still bellow 55 EMA on a 4 hour timeframe, as well as on a 2 hour timeframe, so first obstacle for NEO to go higher is to close a 4 hour candle, and stay above 55 EMA.
Also, very important, daily 55 EMA is right below the price now, and have supported this bounce. Hopefully it will continue to support the price from here.
If the FUD spread as they want, there is a possibility that price can dropout of the channel, and they will buy it cheaper from whoever panic sell there. Just ignore the FUD, because reason of the FUD is simple. They want cheaper NEO!
GL!
Bitcoin in a déjà vuHello fellow traders. It has been a while since I posted anything on TV, but since 2018 is set to be a year of fundamental changes around the world, maybe it will also be changing my procrastinating habits, or maybe not. After all, some things don't ever change, bound to drift in an infinite 2.33% loop and repeating the same patterns over and over... Yes, you guessed it, I was thinking about Bitcoin 6.77% .
January 2018 reminds me very much of last September. Then BTC 6.77% had just reached the new All time high of 5K. Back then, everybody was calling for a bubble ready to burst and that corn 0.21% had reached its top. Sure enough, the drop came, fueled by a tremendous amount of FUD originating from Asia, and the western voice was the one of JP Morgan CEO -3.50% Jamie Dimon, calling Bitcoin 6.77% a fraud. Does anything sound familiar? Well, except this time, Dimon is on the other side of the mirror.
Here are the two timeframes side by side for comparison. Mind you, the 2018 one is on a 8hr scale, while the 2017 is on the 4hr scale. Hope you'll find that meaningful.
Did it feel like the end was near? Yes. Was it? Hell no, it was only the beginning.
BTC/USD - 2/15/2018Despite the FUD and post after post of individuals selling off at the bottom because they believe "Bitcoin is dead", I remain bullish. Overall, Bitcoin has been moving in parabolic bullish pushes and of course, met with parabolic retracement periods. This retracement period may be near its end though, seeing as though it has recently broken through major resistance levels such as the price of $9,000. Along with this, recently the past candlestick has broken and closed over the EMA(200). This is usually seen as a significant bullish move because it has finally broken through the downtrend that it was previously following. The price began to form into a pennant, but by closing over the EMA(200) the price was able to have a bullish breakout rather than a bearish one that was expected. The target levels here are calculated slightly different than they normally are when determining breakouts. In this case, the price is just expected to rise to the 38.2% fib retracement level with little resistance. The price currently is testing a previous resistance level, if the candlestick is able to close above this level, it will be a stronger indicator that the price will reach the target price much smoother.
Important Resistance Levels: $11,678, 10,000, 10,854
Important Support Levels: $8,882, 7,890
DISCLAIMER
WITH THIS CONTENT CRYPTOCURRENCY CAPITAL LLC OR ITS AFFILIATES DO NOT PROVIDE INVESTMENT, TAX, LEGAL OR ACCOUNTING ADVICE. THIS MATERIAL HAS BEEN PREPARED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND IS NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE, AND SHOULD NOT BE RELIED ON FOR, TAX, LEGAL, ACCOUNTING OR INVESTMENT ADVICE. YOU SHOULD CONSULT YOUR OWN INVESTMENT, TAX, LEGAL AND ACCOUNTING ADVISORS BEFORE ENGAGING IN ANY TRANSACTION AT YOUR OWN RISK.
CONFLICTS OF INTEREST
GIVEN THE NATURE OF THE FUND’S BUSINESS MODEL, IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO FORESEE AND PREVENT ALL POSSIBLE CONFLICTS OF INTEREST THAT MIGHT ARISE OVER THE LIFESPAN OF THE COMPANY. AT THE TIME MATERIAL WAS PUBLISHED, CRYPTOCURRENCY CAPITAL LLC, ITS AFFILIATES, OR ITS PRINCIPALS, MAY HOLD LONG/SHORT POSITIONS IN THIS PARTICULAR COIN.
Written by:
Arham Bheda
Senior Research Analyst
BTCUSD: A super scrappy chart of FUD and bubble popping mania??Hello everyone,
Before BTC retests to 20k and higher later this year, I think there's gunna be a dip back down to $5400 levels. Based my resistance levels off of previous dips, descending channels, and trend lines. Let me know what you think, and thanks for looking!
Personal disclaimer:
Don't take any of my published ideas as reality. Always make educated decisions before doing anything with your investments. Use my charts for educational purposes only. Trade at your own risk.
The btc bubble might have popped, but how likely is it really?At first glance the btc chart looks just like the dotcom bubble chart but careful inspection reveals key differences.
One might argue that the real btc peak started at 8k instead of 12k but that just swaps height of the peak for duration.
Aside from the chart, exchanges are overflowing with new users.
Also, the dotcom bubble was trillions (in 2000 dollars) while the btc bubble is billions (in 2018 dollars).
The chart, coupled with these facts, leads me to believe that we are only in a correction and not in a popped bubble (though we could still go lower in this correction).
4 Years of BTC and herd mentality in one chartHey guys, as you've seen on my previous forecasts on BTC and XRP, I've started to accumulate and increase my holdings. Besides the technicals, my bias is getting even more long biased due to the massive pessimism around inexperienced traders and overall media coverage. As you can see on the chart above, this is not the first time the world has witnessed such a huge drop on BTC. Back in 2014, when the total crypto market cap has dropped below 5 billion USD due to a massive sell off of -87%, the web was full of articles saying that Bitcoin is about to collapse. That it will end.During this phase, we've also witnessed the MtGox affair and the start of some regulatory talk. Some university professors and asset managers begun to throw out predictions that BTC will hit $10.
Once price has started to recover, you've suddenly heard nothing more from these people. The sentiment has been switched to "keep our mouths shut" till BTC slowly gained bullish momentum again. What happened then? The very same newspapers and magazines started to write articles that BTC is now "hip" again and it might become a big thing in the future. As soon as price started to really rocket, the very same procedure has started again. Jamie Dimon/CEO of JPMorgan, marketwatch.com, CNBC journalists and many others listed thousands of reasons why Bitcoin is bad, risky, a fraud and of course why we all should stay away from it. Guess what happened when the price started to drop again in January? Right. The very same thing. There is no "this time it's different". This market is still in its infancy and yes, there are other coins that might become the crypto #1 but no one knows when it will happen and we shouldn't actually care about, because for now we clearly see a heavy BTC dependance on other alts - despite the diminishing BTC dominance.
Long story short - I think it's extremely important to never, really never fall for any catching armageddon crypto headline out there. I am actually using all this as an contrarian indicator, meaning that a peak in both, heavy optimism and pessimism regarding cryptos should be a warning sign. People just went crazy in France a week ago or so, because some stores have been offering Nutella and diapers for a 70% discount. This thing has escalated so quickly that they've had to call the police. On the other hand, when people are been offering to increase their crypto holdings to buy back at a heavily discounted price of more than 70% , people are scared to death and even sell(!!!) their holdings with a massive loss. I mean..that's just insane.
It's not about having the most accurate entry or exit. Think of Michael Burry (The Big Short) or other investment funds who act during or prior to such a crisis,bubble,healthy correction (call it whatever you want). They rarely squeeze a trade out from the very bottom to the absolute top. Sure, they're doing their best to do so - but in the end it's about the final result. And speaking of this, it simply doesn't matter that much if you've bought in at $6k or $7k. Hell, let BTC even drop to 5k or 4k. That would be even better, as we can buy at much cheaper levels. And once BTC and alts start to gain bullish momentum again, you'll hear the exact same words, you'll read the exact same headlines on the very same magazines and newspapers. And yes, there will be again regulatory talk going on, people spreading rumours, maybe some bans, etc. It just doesn't matter in the mid to long run.
I've seriously read a comment below a tweet of Kim DotCom who advised people to buy BTC on the 5th of August 2016 with the words "Buy Bitcoin while cheap. Like right now. Trust me". You don't believe what an insane amount of hate comments he received and many were just like "mhmm alright". These peeps have probably the very same mentality to those who are laughing at others that say, BTC and alts with a proven concept will have another insane bull run in the near future.
Don't be a sheep. Don't panic. Be patient
TSX : It not as bad as the media suggests.As always, the media likes to create FUD. In reality, it,s a minor pullback.
It's actually a fantastic time to find new opportunities in the market.
Think of it as a sale on equities, 15% off regular prices. Who doesn't like a good sale?
Maybe add a little more to your long-term ETF's for example.
The health sector is in a huge pullback.. mainly the POT stocks.
Yesterday may have been the bounce. Look for new opportunities in that sector.
Financial sector looks to be about the same thing, just a correction.
I am not a financial advisor, use your best judgement. Trade within your means.
And always use a stop-loss. Rule #1 should always be capital preservation.
I suggest that we all ignore the noise from the media, and just watch our charts for new ideas.
Nubits/Bitcoin Technical AnalysisGuys throw away all FUD, something good will come and not only with this coin.
Like I wrote in my status keep an eye on 12-16 February.
For this coin we can see some approvals:
- Volume is growing
- All time low was met in December 2017 and until then is growing slowly
- MACD looks very good with a lot of space to grow
- Price hit first Fibonacci's line today and if on the 1 Day frame the today's candle closes higher than this line we'll be heading to the second one
I just draw this and take a look on the intersection date of resistance and Fibonacci's 0.382 line. What date is there? 16 f**king February.
$BTC - Fundamental analysis of its value (and why it will go up)Fractal Markets Theory:
www.investopedia.com
"The role of information is crucial in making sound decisions with any sort of investment strategy. Within the framework of FMH, the impact of information availability can lead to changes in time horizons and liquidity. During times of stability, FMH states all investors share the same information. How information is perceived results in the individual investment decisions: a day trader may perceive price fluctuations and decide to sell, while a pension fund manager will place less value on price movements. "
Metcalfe's Law:
en.wikipedia.org
"Metcalfe's law states that the value of a telecommunications network is proportional to the square of the number of connected users of the system (n2)."
Digital blockchain networks appear to be following Metcalfe’s Law:
www.sciencedirect.com
"Finally, the potential for identifying value bubbles that can be spotted as deviations in value from the model was discussed and illustrated using the data from one of the networks. Those value bubbles show up where repeated extremely high value increases are not accompanied by any commensurate increase in the number of participating users, or any other development that could give rise to the higher value."
Fundamental analysis: Bitcoin holds many of the same intrinsic values as the internet, therefore should also follow the same theories that have been applied to the internet and other telecommunication networks. The growth of bitcoin's value from sub $10,000USD to $20,000 was artificial, leading to a lack of strong support when it faced media news/speculations used to destabilize it; news that bitcoin investors themselves spread. Following Metcalfe's Law, we can hypothesize that the run up to $20,000 was a bubble and we are now seeing bitcoin return to its original support, at a higher fiat value, due to an increase in users.
Following the volume osc., we can see that historically price drops as it increases; this seems to be from panic selling causing oscillation to rise. As the volume osc. value decreases, bitcoin's dollar value naturally rises. I believe this is because of its natural growth as a coin, removing all the hype and FUD.
The fundamental reasoning for its value diving in recent times is due to news being spread to manipulate the market value. Korea's government, who said they would ban it, reversed positions more than a few times, apologized for being so confusing,
and even had inside trading with the officials who released negative statements on it. Now they are stating they do have a use for it.
China said they would ban bitcoin in mid-late 2017 and Antshares/$NEO took a nose dive. NEO is a centralized (for now) cryptocurrency that ties blockchain to ID; it utilizes $GAS to fund ICOs and was chosen by China because of NEO's vetting process for ICOs. They wanted to cut down on scams and track their citizens' use.
Referencing MEX_Exchange's fundamental reasoning: ICOs are funded with milliions of dollars in their pre/private stage from private investors and VCs; most credit cards have limits in the thousands. Limiting credit cards can shake market sentimentality, but only if cryptocurrency investors believe it to cause harm to its value. A lot of bearish predictions by well respected entities definitely is a fundamental reason for $BTC to lower in the short term.
BTC to test it's limits?Looks like BTC might want to test the limits before a bounce occurs, a lot of support lines have been demolished on the this brutal fall.
Big institutions wan't BTC dead, media FUD and conspiracy causing the weak hands to sell into the grubby hands of the big players. Like taking candy from a baby we could say. The whole reason BTC exists it to fight against the "man" and his big brother status, this is another attempt to secure control of money in this world. This is the chance to take back as much control as we can, they can't win only strengthen their position in the inevitable outcome.
This will be the biggest transfer of wealth the world has ever seen, are you going to fall for the FUD and manipulation? Please be careful shorting at this period of time. BTC has proven resilient against all crash/fud in the past, so why would it be any different now? The crypto market only really began in 2017 to 2018, markets like this cannot go away during one price correction.
Don't get me wrong, BTC was bought up in a parabolic move once again and a correction in price was expected by hodlers and traders alike. When history repeats itself, are you going to be a winner or a loser? A hodler or a seller? Only time will tell.
Pick your side, for or against.
C'est la vie!
ETH dip nearly finishedCOINBASE:ETHUSD Had a relatively healthy pullback on the weekly chart with a high-volume bounce off likely support. There's reason to believe the dump could be coming to end. Previous tests of the weekly 20 ema (green) that close above it have resulted in consolidation followed by a move higher. These tests have often been on high volume. Weekly Stochastics are still falling, however they are approaching the 50 line, which has acted as support before. I expect we see about a week of sideways trading in a somewhat tighter range while bag holders attempt to get even. A close over the~6 month 61.8% fib extension into the 920's would indicate the week ends with strength, so I'll be watching closely this weekend. We didn't quite touch the weekly 20 ema as we have previously, so a buy order just below today's session lows could be the ultimate steal of a deal if we get more panic selling and you're still looking to accumulate ETH. For those looking to scalp the likely sideways market next week, I like a sell on at least the first test of the 1150-1200 zone with the intention of buying all dips.
XRP Was recoveringUntil USDT news and i'm calling more collaborative BS, the shorting from futures didn't have the desired effect and almost all crypto was following a nice rising support line. Just my opinion. Wouldn't surprise me if we get more news soon to knock the price down further. I'm buying at strategic fib points on the way down until the manipulators decide they want the price up.
Ethereum double top swing trade into death drop1. Consolidation (Push up early buyers)
2. Consolidation (Push down - buyers liquidating + sellers trying to stack position)
3. Real buyers trying to move the market higher
4. Short-term buy positions liquidated/Sellers try to push price back down
5. Sellers are exhausted and BUYING continues
6. Sellers try to push back down but now realize they are trapped.
7. Larger buy volume steps in
8. People who were in long positions since #1-3 are now booking in profits and a small amount of selling is occurring.
9. People that didn't hop on the train are hopping on now at the resistance-now-support.
10. Most swing trader's goals have been met so they start to dump their positions for a nice profit. Coincides with double-top.
11a. Potentially hard sell-off starts now.
11b. (Alternative to 11a) Could also be a bounce up to try and break through resistance (red dotted line) but not as likely.
BTCUSD - Drop to 3k USD or bullish continuation?Hey everyone!
This is my first analysis and I am very new to technical analysis, so 'bear' with me. Here is the daily chart, since the two are very much complementing each other:
The chart is scaled logarithmically, since it gives a better picture of what happened in the past over the linear chart.
What worries me the most are the insanely low support levels given by the ichimoku cloud. While we have never went down to ichimoku support levels, it would still allow a retracement to the September dip to 3k USD.
We can see that past cycles of slow upwards movement to sharp dip were around 60 days long. We may have completed such a cycle with the current dip or we might see a larger super cycle forming that does not obey this pattern.
The MACD is painting a grave picture and seems to point towards the latter scenario. However the MACD bounced right before crossover at the end of the November and September cycles.
The ADX may be pointing downwards, but at levels above 40 is still indicating strong price movement. +DI is going down while -DI is going up. In the past they rarely crossed over, but instead bounced off each other. Let's hope this is the case.
Let's look at the daily chart.
We broke through the Ichimoku cloud. This has happened before, but not to such an extent. At best this gives us a resistance at 13-14k, at worst it may indicate a bearish downward reversal.
The lower border of the Bollinger Band seems to give us room for further downward movement by parallelizing with the current developement.
The MACD is pointing downwards to an extent we have not seen in the past year, eventhough it may be losing momentum.
While Stoch RSI is already over bought and ready to bounce, the RSI still has some room for further downward movement. In the past, the price never seemed to bounce before the RSI dropped below 30.
What is really worrying is the ADX indicating strong price action with the +DI far below the -DI and the two seemingly diverging even further from each other.
Fundamentals:
We have seen some heavy FUD. I suspect the expiration of futures contracts are to blame for this. Some powerful entities have made a lot of money with this dip and the FUD from the political side came just in time for that.
Call me paranoid, but I smell market manipulation.
Alas there is a new stack of future contracts expiring on the 26th of January. Look out for further FUD in the next week and be ready to go short.
Summary:
Our indicators are giving off very mixed signals, bears seem to be taking control though. If this was any other coin, I would go short. With BTCUSD however, we have seen this pattern at the end of every 60 day cycle which gives me some hope. I will hold for now.
We can't be sure that the current dip merely marks the end of another 60 day cycle. It may well mark the end of a super cycle. Especially the MACD of the weekly seems to suggest the latter.
If I should take a wild guess, I would assume a dead cat bounce to 14k in the coming week and a sharp drop to much lower levels of 8k, at worst 3-4k towards Jan 26. With more future contracts expiring we might also see a salami crash to 3k USD within the coming months. The underlying motor will possibly be both Political FUD and the public's realization that BTC is not a feasible payment option.
Please excuse the poor choice of colors. I am severely color blind.
Also remember that I am a total noob when it comes to technical analysis and speculation in general. I have made some excellent calls on shit coin price action, but BTC is a tough one.
TRXETHSee Jan 13 post and Jan 15 update.
TLDR: tried to make a swing from TRX to XRP when XRP hit 1.55 but TRX did not hold up well enough to justify making the trade. Will continue to look for an entry point in XRP that makes sense against the value of both TRX and ETH unless TRX shows life. If it runs I'll play the run until swapping back for ETH. We seem to be peaking in FUD articles, don't liquidate into peak FUD.