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Fundamental Analysis

Giveaway: Happy Holidays & Merry Christmas!It's that time of year where we can openly say (without sounding too cringe) how thankful we are to have you. Your unwavering support, charting enthusiasm, and shared passion for the markets is what drives us. You've been the heartbeat of our work and community. As we close the book on another year of trading, we’re reminded that it’s not just the numbers or the record highs — it’s you that makes this journey worthwhile. Happy Holidays from all of us at TradingView! May your holidays be filled with warmth, laughter, and just the right amount of volatility to keep things exciting. 🥂📈 Wishing you a breakout year ahead, fewer false signals, and plenty of wins — on and off the charts. 🥁 And now... 🥁 🎁 THE GIVEAWAY 🎁 Who: 🏆 THREE LUCKY WINNERS 🏆 walk away with prizes What: 🚀 PREMIUM PLAN 🚀 for a full year When: ⏳ JANUARY 3 ⏳ we announce the winners To participate, leave a comment under this Idea, answering the two-part question: 1️⃣ What was your best trade this year? 2️⃣ What is your trading goal for 2025? And now follow these rules: 1️⃣ Like this Idea 2️⃣ Follow our official account Note: 💡 You can only participate once — three lucky winners will be picked randomly by the TradingView Santa to win a Premium plan for one year. Watch this space — announcing the winners on January 3 !
by TradingView
76
Bitcoin - More blood will follow (Do not buy now, buy here!)Bitcoin is completely manipulated by the banks and huge institutions. They sent Bitcoin down just to make your Christmas and New Year celebrations bad. But luckily I warned you about this crash a few days ago, just before it happened in my previous analysis, when almost everyone was drunk with strong greed. Bitcoin crashed by 15% so far; altcoins are down by 30% to 70%. The last days were very profitable, but let's focus on the future, because that's the most important. Bitcoin bounced a bit from 92k to 99k, giving players hope that the bottom is in. But do not be fooled, this looks like a corrective move for multiple reasons. The first reason is that the crash was extremely fast and strong, pretty much no one expected such a drop in the short term. My Elliott Wave analysis suggests that this is a strong impulse wave 12345 and therefore the start of a larger corrective structure ABC. We have finished wave A, now we are in wave B, and we can expect wave C to finish at around 85k! You want to take a Fibonacci extension, as you can see on my chart. I strongly recommend waiting for 85k because we have an unfilled FVGAP on the daily chart, and this needs to be tested. Write a comment with your altcoin, and I will make an analysis for you in response. Also, please hit boost and follow for more ideas. Trading is not hard if you have a good coach! This is not a trade setup, as there is no stop-loss. I share my trades privately. Thank you, and I wish you successful trades!
Short
by Xanrox
133
TradeCityPro | AAVE : Insights into the DeFi Lending Giant👋 Welcome to TradeCityPro! In this analysis, I’ll delve into the AAVE token. The current market conditions are challenging, and finding good positions is difficult. Therefore, I’ll focus more on explaining the project and less on chart analysis. 🔍 About AAVE: AAVE is a blockchain-based platform that allows users to deposit their assets as collateral and borrow against them. Since the platform operates on the blockchain, both collateral and loans are in the form of cryptocurrencies. A key parameter in this platform is the Health Factor, which is calculated based on the collateral amount and the borrowed amount. If this parameter falls below 1, the likelihood of liquidation increases significantly. 🔄 This platform enables users to borrow funds in a decentralized environment. Borrowed funds can be used directly or leveraged within the DeFi space for higher profits. However, this comes with specific risks, as highlighted earlier. 💸 AAVE generates revenue through interest rates charged to users. For instance, if a user supplies Ethereum to the platform, they earn a 5% return, while a borrower pays 7% interest. AAVE earns the 2% spread as its profit for mediating between the supplier and the borrower. 💰 Currently, the platform's Total Value Locked (TVL) stands at $19 billion, ranking second after Lido. This builds substantial trust among users. Due to its revenue model, AAVE is one of the few profitable crypto projects, enabling stakeholders to earn not only from token appreciation but also from platform-generated income. 🤝 Given AAVE's revenue model and the scarcity of profitable crypto projects, it has the potential to grow into one of the largest platforms in the crypto space. Already ranked second in TVL, it can further attract more users and expand its presence. 🔵 If AAVE continues to grow, its token could become one of the most critical assets in the market. With a market cap of $5 billion, AAVE currently ranks 30th by market cap. If its revenue remains stable and the project stays profitable, the token’s rank is likely to improve further. 📅 Weekly Timeframe: Strong Bullish Momentum and Parabolic Movement In the weekly timeframe, there is a visible accumulation box with its ceiling at $130.24. After breaking this level, strong bullish momentum entered the market. Following a pullback and breaking the $202.63 resistance, the next significant resistance lies at $476.74. 📈 From the initial rise off the $51.76 low, the buying volume has surged significantly, validating the upward trend. The RSI entered the overbought zone after the break of $202.63, further propelling the price upward. 🚀 The $476.74 resistance is critical, coinciding with the ATH level. Breaking this level could lead to a new ATH. Currently, Fibonacci levels for subsequent targets cannot be determined until the price correction zones are identified. After completing the correction, further targets can be analyzed. 🔽 In a corrective scenario: The first key zone is $202.63, especially if it aligns with the curved trendline, strengthening its significance.A deeper correction could reach $130.24, and breaching this level would end the bullish trend, signaling the start of a new market cycle. ✨ Breaking the $77.45 level would introduce bearish momentum, while a break of the $51.76 support could instill significant fear in the market, potentially leading to sharp price drops. 📅 Daily Timeframe: Signs of a Possible Correction In the daily timeframe, the latest bullish leg can be examined in more detail. Currently, the price has hit the $381.71 resistance and is undergoing a correction after one test. 🔑 So far, the correction has not been deep, with the price shadowing to the 0.382 Fibonacci level and temporarily recovering. If the correction continues: The 0.5 Fibonacci level is crucial and observable in lower timeframes. 📉 If both levels are broken, the next major support is $195.25, overlapping with the 0.786 Fibonacci level. This level is the last critical zone to maintain bullish momentum. Breaching it could bring bearish momentum into the market. 🔼 If the correction concludes and the $381.71 resistance is broken, the next resistance lies at $637.94. Breaking the 70 RSI resistance would reintroduce buying momentum. It is notable that the market volume hasn’t declined yet, which supports the bullish trend. ⏳ 4-Hour Timeframe: Futures Triggers In this timeframe, I will focus solely on futures triggers since the higher timeframe scenarios are already analyzed. 🔽 After reaching the $381.71 resistance, the price entered a corrective phase, touching the 0.382 Fibonacci level before forming support at $295.77. Breaking this support would activate the first short trigger, though it is highly risky due to the overall bullish trend. Personally, I won’t take this position as the market trend is still upward. 💥 Another short trigger could emerge based on Dow Theory, but the market hasn’t yet established the necessary structure. ⚡️ For a long position, the primary trigger is the $381.71 resistance, which is a crucial level. I aim to open a long position if this resistance is broken to profit from the next upward wave. Since opening a position upon breaking this level is challenging, an early long trigger could be identified at $337.93. A break of $53.80, coinciding with the $337.93 resistance, could also provide a good opportunity for a long position. 📝 Final Thoughts This analysis reflects our opinions and is not financial advice. Share your thoughts in the comments, and don’t forget to share this analysis with your friends! ❤️ above.
Long
by tradecitypro
20
SOLUSDT - Will this nightmare come true?On October 22, I published this chart, and many were skeptical about what I was talking about. "I share it and u can check the link i left in attachment." Now, this scenario is highly likely, and everything is unfolding as shown in the chart below. You can clearly see the Wyckoff Distribution pattern already formed, and so far, price movements align significantly with the illustration provided. Currently, the price has returned to the distribution zone, hitting the "failed rally point" . All of this appears to have been a trap. And why not?... SOL is one of the largest coins in the market by market cap. Everyone is expecting SOL to achieve x3 or even x10. This makes it entirely logical for the price not to move higher amidst this level of optimism. I’m not entirely pessimistic, but I view things from a purely logical perspective. This pattern is not yet confirmed—we need a massive red candle closing below the distribution zone to confirm it. However, the price movement so far is perfectly aligned with the Wyckoff Distribution logic. If a close below this red zone happens, consider it a signal to exit the market entirely."
by ceciliones
8
Santa Claus Rally: How Will Christmas Impact Stock MarketsSanta Claus Rally: How Will Christmas Impact Stock Markets in 2024 The Santa Claus rally is a well-known seasonal phenomenon where stock markets often see gains during the final trading days of December and the start of January. But what causes this year-end trend, and how does Christmas influence stock markets overall? In this article, we’ll explore the factors behind the rally, its historical significance, and what traders can learn from this unique period in the financial calendar. What Is the Santa Claus Rally? The Santa Claus rally, or simply the Santa rally, refers to a seasonal trend where stock markets often rise during the last five trading days of December and the first two trading days of January. For instance, Santa Claus rally dates for 2024 start on the 24th December and end on the 2nd January, with stock markets closed on the 25th (Christmas day) and the 28th and 29th (a weekend). First identified by Yale Hirsch in 1972 in the Stock Trader’s Almanac, this phenomenon has intrigued traders for decades. While not a guaranteed outcome, it has shown a consistent pattern in market data over the years, making it a point of interest for those analysing year-end trends. In Santa rally history, average returns are modest but noteworthy. For example, per 2019’s Stock Trader’s Almanac, the S&P 500 has historically gained around 1.3% during this period, outperforming most other weeks of the year. Across the seven days, prices have historically climbed 76% of the time. This trend isn’t limited to the US; global indices often experience similar movements, further highlighting its significance. To check market dynamics, head over to FXOpen’s free TickTrader trading platform. The Christmas rally in the stock market is believed to stem from several factors. Low trading volumes during the holiday season, as many institutional investors take time off, may reduce resistance to upward price movements. Retail investors, buoyed by end-of-year optimism or holiday bonuses, may drive additional buying. Additionally, some investors reposition portfolios for tax purposes or adjust holdings ahead of the new year, contributing to the upward momentum. However, this pattern is not immune to disruption. Broader economic events, geopolitical tensions, or bearish sentiment can easily override it. While the Santa Claus rally is a fascinating seasonal trend, it’s essential to view it as one piece of the larger market puzzle rather than a reliable signal on its own. Why Might the Santa Claus Rally Happen? The Santa Claus rally isn’t a random occurrence. Several factors, both psychological and practical, can drive this year-end market trend. While it doesn’t happen every year, when it does, there are usually clear reasons behind it. Investor Optimism and Holiday Sentiment The holiday season often brings a wave of positive sentiment. This optimism can influence traders to take a bullish stance, especially as many are eager to start the new year on a strong note. Retail investors, in particular, may view this period as an opportunity to position themselves for potential January gains. The festive atmosphere and the prospect of year-end “window dressing”—where fund managers buy well-performing stocks to improve portfolio appearances—can also contribute. Tax-Driven Portfolio Adjustments As the year closes, many investors engage in tax-loss harvesting, selling underperforming assets to offset taxable gains. Once these adjustments are complete, reinvestments into higher-performing or promising stocks may push markets higher. This activity can create short-term demand, fuelling upward momentum during the rally period. Lower Trading Volumes Institutional investors often step back during the holidays, leaving markets dominated by retail traders and smaller participants. Lower trading volumes can result in less resistance to price movements, making it easier for upward trends to emerge. With fewer large players balancing the market, price shifts may become more pronounced. Bonus Reinvestments and End-of-Year Contributions Many professionals receive year-end bonuses or make final contributions to retirement accounts during this period. Some of this money flows into the markets, adding buying pressure. This effect is particularly noticeable in December, as investors seek to capitalise on potential market opportunities before the year wraps up. How Christmas Impacts Stock Markets The Christmas period is unique in the trading calendar, shaping market behaviour in ways that stand out from other times of the year. While some effects align with holiday-driven sentiment, others reflect broader seasonal trends. Reduced Liquidity and Trading Volumes One of the most notable impacts of Christmas is the sharp decline in trading activity. This contributes to the Santa rally, with the largest market participants—institutional investors and professional traders—stepping away for the holidays. This thinner activity can lead to sharper price movements as smaller trades carry more influence. For example, stocks with lower market capitalisation may experience greater volatility during this time. Sector-Specific Strength The most popular Christmas stocks tend to be those in the consumer discretionary and retail sectors (though this isn’t guaranteed). The holiday shopping boom drives significant revenues for companies in these sectors, often lifting their stock prices. A strong showing in retail sales, especially in countries like the US, can bolster market indices tied to consumer spending. Many consider companies like Amazon and brick-and-mortar retailers to be among the most popular stocks to buy before Christmas, given they often see increased trading interest around the holidays and a potential Christmas rally. Economic Data Releases The Christmas season still sees the publication of economic indicators. While there are no specific year-end releases from government statistical bodies, some 3rd-party reports may have an impact. Likewise, scheduled publications, such as US jobless claims (every Thursday) or non-farm payrolls (the first Friday of each month), can affect sentiment. Positive data can provide an additional boost to stock markets in December. However, weaker-than-expected results can dampen enthusiasm, counteracting any seasonal cheer. International Variations While Western markets slow down for Christmas, other global markets may not follow the same pattern. For instance, Asian markets, where Christmas is less of a holiday, may see regular or even increased activity. This discrepancy can create interesting dynamics for traders who keep an eye on global portfolios. The "Post-Holiday Rebound" As Christmas wraps up, markets often experience a slight rebound leading into the New Year, driven by renewed investor activity. This period, while brief, is closely watched as it can set the tone for the opening days of January trading. Potential Risks and Considerations While the Santa Claus rally and year-end trends can be intriguing, they are far from guaranteed. Relying solely on these patterns without deeper analysis can lead to overlooked risks and missed opportunities. Uncertain Market Conditions Macro factors, like interest rate changes, geopolitical tensions, or unexpected economic data, can disrupt seasonal trends. For instance, during times of economic uncertainty, the optimism often associated with the holidays might not translate to market gains. Traders must account for these broader dynamics rather than assuming the rally will occur. Overemphasis on Historical Patterns Historical data can provide valuable insights, but markets evolve. A pattern that held up in past decades may not carry the same weight today due to shifts in investor behaviour, technological advancements, and globalisation. Traders focusing too heavily on past trends may miss the impact of more relevant, current developments. Low Liquidity Risks The reduced trading volumes typical of the holiday season can work both ways. While thin markets may allow for upward price movements, they can also lead to heightened volatility. A single large trade or unexpected event can swing prices sharply, posing challenges for those navigating the market during this time. Sector-Specific Sensitivity Sectors like retail and consumer discretionary often draw attention during December due to strong sales data. However, poor performance or weak holiday shopping figures can cause a ripple effect, dragging down not only individual stocks but broader indices tied to these sectors. FOMO and Overtrading The hype surrounding the Santa Claus rally can lead to overtrading or ill-timed decisions, particularly for less experienced traders. Maintaining a disciplined approach, potentially combined with clear risk management strategies, can potentially help mitigate this issue. The Bottom Line The Santa Claus rally is a fascinating seasonal trend, offering insights into how market sentiment and activity shift during the holidays. While not guaranteed, understanding these patterns can help traders develop their strategies. Whether you’re exploring seasonal trends in stock CFDs or other potential opportunities across forex and commodity CFDs, having the right platform is essential. Open an FXOpen account today to access more than 700 markets, four trading platforms, and low-cost trading conditions. FAQ What Is the Santa Claus Rally? The Santa Claus rally refers to a seasonal trend where stock markets often rise during the final week of December and the first two trading days of January. It’s a well-documented phenomenon, first identified by Yale Hirsch in the Stock Trader’s Almanac. While it doesn’t occur every year, Santa Claus rally history demonstrates consistent patterns, with the S&P 500 averaging a 1.3% gain during this period. What Are the Dates for the Santa Claus Rally? The Santa Claus rally typically covers the final five trading days of December and the first two trading days of January. The Santa Claus rally in 2024 starts on the 24th of December and ends on the 2nd of January. During this period, stock markets will be closed on the 25th (Christmas Day) and the weekend of the 28th and 29th. How Many Days Does the Santa Claus Stock Rally Take? The rally spans seven trading days: the last five of December and the first two of January. While its duration is fixed, the intensity and consistency of the trend vary from year to year. Is December Good for Stocks? Historically, December has been one of the strongest months for stock markets. Positive sentiment, strong retail performance, and tax-related portfolio adjustments often contribute to this trend. Is the Stock Market Open on Christmas? No, US and UK stock markets are closed on Christmas Day, with reduced hours on Christmas Eve. Historically, What Is the Best Day of December to Invest in the Stock Market? Financial markets bear high risks, therefore, there is no best day for trading or investing. According to theory, in December stock market history, the last trading day of the year has often been among the strongest, as investors position portfolios for the new year. However, results vary based on broader market conditions and a trader’s skills. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:SPXMEducation
by FXOpen
3
The Crypto Market Game: How to Win Against Fear and ManipulationDid you really think profiting from the current bull run (a comprehensive upward market) would be easy? Don't be naive. Do you think they’ll let you buy low, hold, and sell high without any struggle? If it were that simple, everyone would be rich. But the truth is: 90% of you will lose. Why? Because the crypto market is not designed for everyone to win. They will shake you. They will make you doubt everything. They will create panic, causing you to sell at the worst possible moment. Do you know what happens next? The best players in this game buy when there’s fear, not sell—because your panic gives them cheap assets. This is how the game works: strong hands feed off weak hands. They exaggerate every dip, every correction, every sell-off. They make it look like the end of the world so you abandon everything. And when the market rises again, you’re left sitting there asking, “What just happened?” This is not an accident. It’s a system. The market rewards patience and punishes weak emotions. The big players already know your thoughts. They know exactly when and how to stir fear, forcing you to give up. When you panic, they profit. They don’t just play the market—they play you. That’s why most people never succeed: they fall into the same traps over and over again. People don’t realize that dips, FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt), and panic are all part of the plan. But the winners? They block out the noise. They know that fear is temporary, but smart decisions last forever. We’ve seen this play out hundreds of times. They pump the market after you sell. They take your assets, hold them, and sell them back to you at the top—leaving you with nothing, wondering how it happened. Don’t play their game. Play your own.
Education
by CobraVanguard
1
XAU/USD (Gold) Trendline BreakoutThe XAU/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential Buying opportunity due to a recent breakout from a well-defined Trendline pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Buy Entry: Consider entering a Long position around close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 2663 2nd Support – 2689 Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
4
Detailed Breakdown and Technical Analysis of NVIDIA's (NVDA) 2yrDetailed Breakdown and Technical Analysis of NVIDIA's (NVDA) Two-Year Outlook and Options Strategy I. Introduction: Welcome to NVIDIA's Final Destination NVIDIA’s journey through the stock market feels eerily similar to a thriller like Final Destination. The twists and turns keep you on edge, the stakes couldn’t be higher, and just when you think you’ve figured it all out, the plot thickens. The question is: are we hurtling toward a safe landing or another sharp drop? With a head-and-shoulders pattern looming and Fibonacci levels adding their own cryptic clues, it’s time to map out the next two years. This isn’t just a ride—it’s a calculated journey through chaos and opportunity. ________________________________________ II. Fundamental Analysis 1. Market Position and Growth Catalysts NVIDIA (NVDA) has solidified its position as a leader in GPU and AI computing, supported by its dominant share in the gaming, data center, and automotive sectors. Its continued focus on AI hardware and software frameworks, like CUDA, provides a competitive moat. With AI-driven workloads expected to grow exponentially, NVIDIA remains a key beneficiary of this secular trend. However, NVDA faces potential headwinds from: • Geopolitical risks: Restrictions on chip exports to China could affect revenues. • Macroeconomic factors: High-interest rates and economic slowdowns may pressure growth-oriented tech stocks. • Valuation concerns: Elevated price-to-earnings ratios leave the stock vulnerable to corrections during downturns. 2. Historical Performance NVDA has demonstrated robust performance in the last decade, experiencing exponential growth in revenue and market capitalization. While this growth has been exceptional, recent price action suggests overextension, leading to the potential formation of a multi-year correction and consolidation before resuming upward momentum. ________________________________________ III. Technical Analysis 1. Current Structure • Head and Shoulders Pattern: A classic bearish reversal pattern is forming, with the left shoulder and head completed. The right shoulder is expected to form near the $134.70 resistance zone. • Fibonacci Retracement: The 0.618 retracement at ~$118 and 0.786 at ~$102 provide key support levels for potential pullbacks. • Momentum Indicators: - MACD: Bearish divergence indicates waning bullish momentum. - Stochastic RSI: Overbought conditions suggest a correction is imminent. 2. Key Levels and Projections • Resistance Levels: $134.70, $149.37. • Support Levels: $118.32 (0.618 Fib), $102.86 (0.786 Fib), $95.65 (potential long-term bottom). • Recovery Path: Post-correction, NVDA could retest $149+ by late 2025, driven by cyclical recovery and improved fundamentals. ________________________________________ IV. Options Strategy: Leveraging Key Zones and Timelines 1. Core Thesis The projected pullback offers a strategic opportunity to capitalize on NVDA’s volatility using options. By employing 45-day (DTE) short put spreads at key support levels, we can: • Generate consistent income from elevated implied volatility (IV). • Define risk with limited downside exposure. Additionally, using long-term hedges (LEAPS) can offset potential losses, ensuring portfolio resilience during downturns. 2. Strategy Design (Phase 1) a. 45D Short Put Spreads • Objective: Capture premium during consolidation near support zones. • Execution: - Sell a short put at a support level (e.g., $118). - Buy a protective put 5-10 points lower (e.g., $113) to limit risk. • Example: - Sell $118 put, buy $113 put for a net credit of $1.50. - Max profit: $150 per contract. - Max loss: $350 per contract. - Breakeven: $116.50. • Timeline: Enter spreads every 45D, adjusting strikes based on price action and IV. b. Long-Term Hedge Using LEAPS • Objective: Hedge downside risk during significant corrections. • Execution: - Buy a deep ITM long put with 12-18 months DTE at $149 (current resistance). - Use proceeds from short put spreads to offset the cost of the hedge. • Rationale: Protects against deep corrections while maintaining exposure to long-term recovery. 3. Combining Strategies • During consolidations, sell short put spreads at $118 and $102. • Maintain a LEAPS hedge at $149 to offset potential losses if the pattern fails and the price breaks lower. • Adjust strikes dynamically based on the formation of the right shoulder and subsequent price action. ________________________________________ V. Phases of Execution Phase 2: Bearish Continuation to End of February 1. LEAP Exit: - Exit the LEAP put at the end of February if NVDA drops below $102. - Capture maximum intrinsic value before significant time decay impacts the LEAP. 2. Second 45DTE Put Spread Exit: - Exit the 45DTE short put spread around 21DTE (mid-February). - This is consistent with best practices to avoid gamma risk and maximize theta decay gains. Phase 3: Test at $95.65 1. Observe the Price Action: - If NVDA tests $95.65: - Confirm support and momentum before acting. - Look for signs of stabilization or a breakdown below $95. 2. Sell a Cash-Secured Put Below $95: - Choose a strike below $95 (e.g., $90 or $85) to give some breathing room. - Plan an exit near $135 test if NVDA rebounds, allowing you to capture premium. Phase 4: Transition Back to Short Put Spreads 1. After $135 Test: - If NVDA reaches $135, transition back to 45D short put spreads. - Focus on strikes below the established support levels at $102 or $118 to maintain a high probability of success. 2. Reestablish LEAP Put: - Initiate a new LEAP put with a strike above the $60 target (e.g., $75–$85). - Aim for September as the reversal point for the long-term bearish trend. Phase 5: Targeting September Reversal 1. Monitor for $60 Reversal: - Expect NVDA to reach $60 by September based on your thesis and technical analysis. - Exit the LEAP put as NVDA approaches $60 or shows reversal signs. 2. Reassess Market Conditions: - At this stage, reevaluate NVDA’s fundamentals, market conditions, and technical indicators. - Consider transitioning to bullish strategies if the broader market outlook aligns. ________________________________________ VI. Risk Management 1. Defined Risk: Short put spreads limit downside exposure to predefined levels, making the strategy suitable for high-volatility environments. 2. Capital Allocation: - Allocate no more than 5% of the portfolio to short put spreads per expiration cycle. - Use 2-3% for the LEAPS hedge. 3. Adjustment Plan: - Roll short puts if NVDA approaches the strike, maintaining a minimum credit. - Exit LEAPS hedge if NVDA stabilizes above $149. 4. Macro Monitoring: Regularly assess market conditions and adjust timelines and strikes accordingly. ________________________________________ VII. Conclusion: The Final Destination for NVDA NVIDIA’s trajectory over the next two years mirrors a thriller like Final Destination. While we can map out the twists and turns with technical analysis and strategic foresight, the market ultimately has its own plans. Our tools—like Fibonacci retracements, options strategies, and risk management frameworks—act as a way to anticipate the curves ahead, but they don’t guarantee a safe landing. The real challenge lies in adapting to the unknowns, balancing preparation with flexibility. Whether NVDA’s final destination is a triumphant recovery or a deeper pullback, this approach equips us to navigate the ride with confidence, knowing we’ve done everything to prepare for whatever fate may unfold. ________________________________________ Footnote This analysis represents a trading thesis based on technical and fundamental insights. It is not intended to be acted upon blindly or as financial advice. Trading involves risk, and the success or failure of the outlined strategies cannot be guaranteed. The author assumes no responsibility for any actions taken based on this thesis. Always consult a financial professional before implementing any investment strategy.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by bcavin
4
Fed Rate Expectations: How Are They Formed?Changes in the Federal Reserve's funds rate have far-reaching implications for nearly all existing assets. When the rate increases amidst moderate inflation, the U.S. dollar TVC:DXY typically strengthens, attracting capital from both the cryptocurrency and stock markets. Conversely, if inflation is rising rapidly and the Fed is compelled to aggressively raise rates to stabilize the economy, investors often interpret this as a sign of underlying trouble, prompting them to shift their assets into TVC:GOLD . However, it is essential to recognize that the Fed’s decisions are reactions to prevailing economic conditions. More crucially, market expectations regarding the Fed's rate movements—shaped by collective sentiment—play a significant role in shaping economic outcomes. This post explores the factors that form these expectations. 📍 Key Indicators Influencing Expectations for the Fed Funds Rate The market tends to respond significantly only when actual changes in the funds rate diverge from expectations. If adjustments align with market forecasts, the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar typically remains stable. Thus, accurately predicting the Fed's actions is vital for investors and traders. 1. Labor Market Dynamics The labor market is a primary focus for the Fed. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases employment reports every Friday, providing insight into unemployment rates. The Fed maintains a forecast range for acceptable unemployment levels—generally between 4.2% and 4.8%—indicating economic balance. An uptick in unemployment signals economic weakness, often prompting a reduction in the funds rate. Conversely, a decline in unemployment raises concerns about potential economic overheating, which could lead to tighter monetary policy. 2. Inflation Trends The Fed’s target inflation rate is set at 2%. As inflation rises, the Fed typically increases the funds rate to curb borrowing. This was clearly illustrated during the 2022-2023 period, where persistent inflation above 8% led to a series of rate hikes. In contrast, deflation would necessitate maintaining ultra-low funds rates. Additional indicators to monitor include wage trends, inflation expectations, and the consumer price index (CPI). 3. Overall Economic Health Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a key indicator of economic health. Although GDP data is often retrospective, it reflects long-term economic trends. A decline in GDP may prompt the Fed to adopt stimulative monetary policies. Analysts often utilize the GDPNow model, developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, to obtain real-time estimates of U.S. GDP growth. 4. Treasury Yield Curve The yield curve illustrates the relationship between bond yields of different maturities from the same issuer. A flattening yield curve typically signals economic slowdown, while long-term bonds yielding less than short-term bonds can foreshadow a recession. The Fed could respond to such signs by adjusting funds rates higher depending on the crisis’s underlying causes. 5. Global Economic Influences Economic conditions in other major economies, particularly China and the European Union, can indirectly impact the U.S. economy due to deep economic ties. Monitoring central bank funds rates and the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in these regions is essential. 6. The Dollar’s Exchange Rate Against Key Currencies A strong U.S. dollar can adversely affect American exporters. If other central banks, such as the Bank of Japan or the European Central Bank, adopt accommodative monetary policies, the Fed may also consider lowering rates to avoid a detrimental trade balance caused by a strengthening dollar. 7. Market Expectations Investor sentiment creates a feedback loop. With over 50% of Americans investing in equities, a hawkish stance on funds rates tends to increase bond yields and instigate a sell-off in securities, negatively impacting overall economic wealth. Investors’ anticipation of potential rate cuts can pressure the Fed to align with these expectations. 8. Communication from Fed Officials The rhetoric from Fed officials often hints at future monetary policy, providing insights into rate expectations based on their communications. Numerous indicators, including analysts’ forecasts and futures trading on key rates, contribute to understanding the Fed's policies. Due to the complexity of these influencing factors, relying solely on fundamental analysis for trading is not advisable for beginners. 📍 Conclusion Forecasting changes in the Fed's funds rate often begins with the first clear signals about the Fed's potential actions. The primary motivations guiding the Fed are the control of inflation and the management of unemployment—making these two indicators crucial for predictions regarding monetary policy. Additionally, it is essential to consider fundamental factors impacting other major currencies. Traders, If you liked this educational post🎓, give it a boost 🚀 and drop a comment 📣
Education
by Lingrid
3
Scam exposed youtu.be 🛑 Honey Scam Unveiled: The video reveals that Honey, a popular browser extension marketed as a money-saving tool, has been involved in questionable practices. It includes deceptive advertising, affiliate fraud, and manipulation of influencers and customers. • 💰 Affiliate Commission Poaching: Honey replaces influencers’ affiliate links with its own during checkout, effectively stealing commissions. This practice impacts both large influencers and smaller creators reliant on affiliate marketing income. • 🔍 Misleading Value Proposition: Honey claims to find the best coupon codes for users but often withholds better codes at the behest of partner businesses, undermining its core promise. • 📊 Business Partnerships: Honey allows businesses to control discount codes on its platform, leading to intentional withholding of higher-value discounts from users. • 🧑‍🎤 Impact on Influencers: Prominent influencers like Linus Tech Tips unknowingly promoted Honey, only to later discover these manipulative practices. Despite ending partnerships, many influencers’ promotions remain live, perpetuating the cycle. • **🤥 False Claims in Marketing: Honey’s advertising is called out for misleading statements such as “you’ll always get the best deal” and “no manual searching needed,” which contradict their actual operations. • **🚨 Consumer Exploitation: Customers often experience Honey providing suboptimal deals or adding its own branded coupon codes instead of genuine discounts. • **📈 Massive Reach: Honey’s marketing campaigns involved sponsorships with over 1,000 YouTube channels, accumulating billions of views. • **📢 Ethical Questions: Despite being exposed, Honey remains active, with little regulatory oversight or accountability, raising concerns about online business ethics. Insights Based on Numbers • $4 Billion Acquisition: Honey was purchased by PayPal for $4 billion, showing the financial stakes behind its practices. • 7.8 Billion Views: Honey’s campaigns amassed almost 8 billion views, illustrating the vast reach and influence of its deceptive marketing. • 89 Cents vs. $35: In one example, Honey poached $35 in affiliate commissions but returned just 89 cents to the customer, highlighting the imbalance in benefits.
NASDAQ:PYPLShort
by justin_p_mcfarland
1
Mobileye & Honda Partnership? Massive move ahead!MOBILEYE - NASDAQ:MBLY 🚘 A partnership between HONDA and MOBILEYE could potentially result in a massive $10-30 billion deal over ten years, or even shorter time frames with the same extrapolated value. 🚀 Base Case Added Revenue: $1B/year Current 2024 Revenue: $1.7B New Potential Revenue: $2.7B/year minimum with just one partnership! To put this into perspective, let's consider the old Honda deal with GM's Cruise, which was cut short and is now over six years old. Technological Advancements A LOT of advancements in Full-Self Driving (FSD) and Autonomous Vehicle (AV) technology have occurred since then, friends! In October 2018, Honda partnered with General Motors (GM) and Cruise, agreeing to invest $2.75 billion over 12 years into GM Cruise, starting with an initial $750 million equity investment. This partnership aimed to develop and deploy autonomous vehicle technology on a large scale, though Honda recently ended the agreement. Conclusion If my gut, research, and the data at my fingertips are correct, not only will this deal between Honda and Mobileye be monumental, but it will also squeeze shorts to a pulp. Simultaneously, Wall Street will recognize the massive opportunities in FSD/AV technology beyond NASDAQ:GOOGL (Waymo) and $TSLA. This news could potentially take us to $25 or more in my opinion! And that's before any type of squeeze! Not financial advice
NASDAQ:MBLYLong
by RonnieV29
3
Trading MRI comprehensive trade analysis for BNZIBanzai International, Inc. ( NASDAQ:BNZI ) is a marketing technology company that provides essential marketing and sales solutions for businesses of all sizes. Recent acquisitions, financial restructuring, and a reverse stock split signal strategic shifts aimed at enhancing the company’s market position. However, its financial metrics reflect significant challenges, including negative operating, profit, and gross margins. Recent Stock Performance Closing Price (Dec 20, 2024): $1.71 (+5.56% from previous close of $1.62). Daily Trading Range: $1.63–$1.85. Volume: 4.07 million shares (below the 4.23 million average). Volatility: 5-day fluctuation: 16.33%. 30-day fluctuation: 11.04%. Moving Averages: +11.89% above 20-day SMA. -19.48% below 50-day SMA. -82.60% below 200-day SMA. 52-Week Range: -99.23% from 52-week high. +32.05% above 52-week low. Recent Company Developments Acquisitions: Vidello: Adds 6.5M in revenue and 2.3M in EBITDA (announced Dec 20, 2024). OpenReel: Enhances AI-powered marketing with enterprise video solutions (completed Dec 19, 2024). Debt Restructuring (Sept 2024): 5.6M liabilities written off; 19.2M restructured. Reverse Stock Split (Sept 19, 2024): 1-for-50 split to meet Nasdaq listing requirements. These developments indicate strategic efforts to stabilize operations and capture growth in the video marketing sector. Analysis Overview Daily Timeframe: Setup: Green Setup 3 progressing toward Green Setup 4. Trend: Bullish short-term, supported by price action above the 20-day SMA. Key Levels: Resistance at $1.85. Support at $1.60. Weekly Timeframe: Setup: Transition from Red Setup 8 to Green Setup 1. Trend: Strong reversal potential. Key Levels: Resistance at $1.80–$1.95. Support at $1.35. Monthly Timeframe: Setup: Red Setup progression from 2 to 4. Trend: Bearish continuation. Key Levels: Breakdown below $1.45 signals bearish dominance. Support at $1.30 and $1.20. snapshot Risk Assessment 1. Probabilities: Daily (Bullish): ~50.7% success rate. Weekly (Bullish Reversal): ~90% success rate. Monthly (Bearish Continuation): ~55.6% success rate. 2. Risk-Reward Ratios: Daily: 1:1.5 (moderate). Weekly: 1:2 (favorable). Monthly: 1:1.5 (moderate). 3. Trade Risks: Financial instability and operational losses may limit upside potential. Reverse stock split suggests efforts to manage compliance rather than growth. Trade Recommendations Daily Chart: Action: Long on confirmation of Green Setup 4. Entry: Above $1.75. Stop-Loss: Below $1.60. Targets: $1.85, $1.90. Weekly Chart: Action: Long on confirmation of Green Setup 2. Entry: Above $1.80. Stop-Loss: Below $1.35. Targets: $1.95, $2.00. Bold Prediction for Q1 2025 NASDAQ:BNZI Optimistic Scenario: If bullish reversals on daily and weekly charts are confirmed, supported by revenue growth from recent acquisitions: Target Price: $2.10–$2.20. Drivers: Growth in video marketing demand and operational cost savings from debt restructuring. Target Price: $2.10–$2.50 by Q2 2025. Pessimistic Scenario: If bearish continuation dominates, compounded by financial challenges: Target Price: $1.15–$1.25. Conclusion and Bold Prediction BNZI's stock performance in 2025 will hinge on the successful execution of its strategic initiatives and the market reception of its enhanced video marketing solutions. Optimistic Scenario: Integration of Vidello and OpenReel drives growth and operational efficiencies, potentially lifting the stock to $2.50 by mid-2025. Pessimistic Scenario: Continued financial losses and market volatility may push the stock to a low of $1.10 by mid-2025. Investors should monitor quarterly updates on revenue growth, profitability improvements, and operational synergies from recent acquisitions. This will provide crucial insights into the company's trajectory in 2025.
NASDAQ:BNZILong
by charts-tradingmri
1
TAO SWING LONG IDEA I know everyone is fearful in the crypto market right now. People are scared to buy at these lows because they believe Bitcoin will likely continue to decline. And yes, that could happen. But guess what? BTC is sitting on daily support. BTC dominance hit 60% and is possibly forming lower highs (check my BTC DOM analysis). The Fear Index is at 54—people are scared. Funding rates are extremely negative. Most assets' RSI levels are oversold (in a bull market!). All these factors tell me it’s the perfect time to open swing long positions while everyone else is panicking and selling their coins at the lows. Let’s take TAO as an example: We’ve hit a key SR level. The election swing lows have been raided. A 4H bullish HTF shift has occurred—this is my confirmation. Entry: $455 SL: $355 (closing daily below) TP: ATH - $750 Good luck! And remember: buy when they’re scared, and sell when they’re greedy. -AS ALWAYS, MANAGE YOUR RISK-
Long
by UA_CAPITAL
2
SELL Signal – NZD/USD - Targeting 226 PipsEntry: 0.5764 TP: 0.5538 SL: 0.5889 Risk/Reward: 2.32 Reasoning: Monetary Divergence: The RBNZ has paused rate hikes, weakening NZD appeal, while USD strength is supported by higher U.S. Treasury yields and reduced Fed rate-cut expectations. Economic Weakness: New Zealand faces slowing growth, a weak housing market, and reduced demand from China. Bearish Momentum: NZD/USD recently broke two long-term support levels, suggesting further downside toward the 0.5538 demand zone. Strong USD: Global monetary easing (e.g., Switzerland, Canada, ECB) and policy concerns are bolstering the USD, further pressuring NZD.
Short
by ValchevFinance
1
GOLD → Short to medium term perspectiveFX:XAUUSD after breaking through the support and updating the local minimum is returning to the area of 2620-2625, fueling the hopes of the bulls for possible growth. But, the medium-term picture for gold is not stable. Let's understand The strong dollar, which soared to local highs is a threat to gold going forward, as the Fed's hints of halting the rate cut course and adopting a hawkish stance on monetary policy has affected the market quite aggressively. There are 2 rate cuts pledged for 2025. Not to forget Trump's policies in general - the impact on rising inflation.... There are two interesting charts online that should not be overlooked: Statistics play an important role in shaping prices, but it is worthwhile to base this on actual fundamental and technical data. You should not use these statistical charts as primary data, but you can take them into account. We will analyze the dollar in terms of cycles and possible reversal in the second half of January and further as Trump acts.... As for gold, technically, in the short and medium term, I expect the decline to continue for the following reasons: - the bearish structure is confirmed - a localized retest of the zone of interest and imbalance is forming before a further fall. - The bearish trend has not broken within the framework of the December 10-13 movement. - price updates local lows We continue to follow the zones: 2631-2636 and 2650 Regards R. Linda!
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
14
Daily Analysis of Ethereum – Issue 235The analyst believes that the price of { ETHUSD } will decrease in the next 24 hours. This prediction is based on quantitative analysis of the price trend. Please note that the specified take-profit level does not imply a prediction that the price will reach that point. In this framework of analysis and trading, unlike the stop-loss, which is mandatory, setting a take-profit level is optional. Whether the price reaches the take-profit level or not is of no significance, as the results are calculated based on the start and end times. The take-profit level merely indicates the potential maximum price fluctuation within that time frame.
BINANCE:ETHUSDShort
by MoonriseTA
1