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Fundamental Analysis

| ICT Unicorn model | The most potent concept spotted on GoldThe Unicorn model is considered by many traders to be one of the most refined and effective concepts within the ICT framework concepts because it brings together several core ideas into one powerful, repeatable setup. But what makes it so highly regarded as one of the best? It’s the ability to stack multiple high-probability conditions: liquidity grabs, market structure shifts, fair value gaps, and optimal trade entry zones. Unlike isolated concepts, the Unicorn model doesn’t rely on just one factor. It uses the synergy between time and price → waiting for manipulation first, then entering during the retracement into a fair value gap or order block. This not only increases accuracy but allows for tight stops and high reward-to-risk ratios. Many traders rely on it exclusively because it’s both structured and versatile, making it easier to apply consistently across various market conditions. How does this work: You’ll see the price breaks a swing high, reverses, and creates a Breaker Block (failed order block) with a Fair Value Gap. These overlap to form the “Unicorn zone” → After that, price drops sharply, breaking the previous structure, indicating a shift in market direction → Price retraces, entering the overlapping zone → Traders look for rejections (candlestick patterns, wick spikes) as the entry signal→ With entry near the zone, the stop-loss is placed just beyond the Breaker Block or FVG. Targets can be the next liquidity levels (e.g., recent lows). Many traders use 2:1 or 3:1 R:R, though targets can be higher. In other words as a standalone strategy, the Unicorn model is highly effective , if, and only if, you have the correct daily bias. With a clear directional outlook, it becomes a complete and reliable setup. Which in our case, on Gold it aligns perfectly. Just sharing my thoughts for the charts, this isn’t financial advice. Always confirm your setups and manage your risk properly. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:XAUUSDLong
by TrendDiva
31
80k BTC On The Move - WHAT It Means 80,000 BTC Wallet Movement (2011 Miner) • Source: 8 wallets containing 10,000 BTC each — mined in 2011, dormant for 14 years • Total Value: Over $8.6 billion USD • Timing: Moved on July 4, 2025 — largest dormant BTC transfer in history • New Addresses: Funds moved to modern SegWit wallets • Probable Owner: Likely a single early miner with 200k+ BTC history Possible Reasons for the Move • Key Rotation: Upgrading to modern wallets for better security • Recovered Access: Private keys may have been recently recovered • Market Strategy: Positioning for profit-taking or major sell-off • Yield Farming: Preparing COINBASE:BTCUSD for use in DeFi/lending platforms • Collateral Use: Possibly for loans, stablecoin leverage, or RWAs • Estate Planning: Legal restructuring or generational wealth setup • OTC Transfer: Could be prepping for off-exchange institutional sale • Psychological Warfare: Could be intended to spook or manipulate the market • Regulatory Response: Aligning with new compliance or tax jurisdiction Market Reaction • COINBASE:BTCUSD Price Dip: Price briefly fell below $108,000 post-move • ETF Context: Movement occurred despite record ETF inflows Key Note: These wallets had not been touched since COINBASE:BTCUSD was worth ~$0.78. Their reactivation adds uncertainty and opportunity in a fragile macro environment. • What to do????: Watch the orderbook to find these large bitcoin moves in case of exchange selling Near term support & resistance $106000 support $109500 first resistance 👍 If this breakdown helped your trading, smash that Like and drop a comment below—let me know what you think will happen with the 80k COINBASE:BTCUSD . 👍 Best Reguards MartyBoots, 17-year market trader
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by MartyBoots
12
#USDCHF: Will USD Breakthrough The Strong Bearish Downtrend? The USDCHF currency pair has experienced significant volatility due to the ongoing trade dispute between the United States and China, which has led to a substantial decline in the DXY index. Consequently, CHF and JPY have emerged as the most stable currencies in the market. Despite the USDCHF currency pair reversing its bullish trend, we anticipate a potential reversal back to a bearish position. We believe this reversal may be a temporary trap, and the currency pair is likely to regain its bullish position in the future. There are two potential areas where the USDCHF currency pair could reverse from its current trend. The first area is relatively early, and if the USDCHF currency pair crosses a specific region, we may have a second safe option that could provide greater stability. We extend our best wishes and best of luck in your trading endeavours. Your unwavering support is greatly appreciated. If you wish to contribute, here are several ways you can assist us: - Like our ideas - Comment on our ideas - Share our ideas Team Setupsfx_🚀❤️
Short
by Setupsfx_
26
SOLANA → Pre-breakdown consolidation may lead to distributionBINANCE:SOLUSDT is declining and testing the support of the trading range as Bitcoin pauses after strong growth and enters a correction phase... SOL looks a bit weaker than Bitcoin technically, but SOLANA has some positive fundamentals, though that might not be enough. After forming a false breakout of key daily resistance, Bitcoin is moving into a correction phase. An update of local lows on the chart could trigger a drop across the entire cryptocurrency market. In SOL, the focus is on the two nearest levels of 148.75 and 145.64. A breakdown of support could trigger the distribution of accumulated energy within the specified range as part of a downward momentum. Resistance levels: 148.75, 151.2, 153.88 Support levels: 145.64, 138.59 The ideal scenario would be a false breakout of 148.75 (liquidity capture) and a retest of 145.64, followed by a break of support. Consolidation below 145.65 could trigger a drop to the zone of interest at 138.59. Best regards, R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
Watch Hyperliquid Surge 18% to $46 Key Resistance LevelHello,✌ let’s dive into a full analysis of the upcoming price potential for Hyperliquid 🔍📈. KUCOIN:HYPEUSDT is trading within a reliable daily ascending channel and is currently near its lower boundary, where a strong daily support zone has formed. This setup suggests a potential upside of at least 18%, with a target around $46 , which aligns closely with a key trendline. 📈 ✨ Need a little love! We pour love into every post your support keeps us inspired! 💛 Don’t be shy, we’d love to hear from you on comments. Big thanks , Mad Whale 🐋
Long
by MadWhale
2
Gold Price Outlook: Dip to $3000 Before a Bullish Rally Toward $Based on my current technical analysis, I expect a bearish move in gold toward the $3000 level in the short term. This zone could act as a strong support and the potential bottom before a major bullish reversal. The reversal window is likely to open between July 28 and mid-August. During this time frame, I anticipate gold will start forming a solid base and initiate a new upward trend. The medium-term target for this bullish leg is projected around $3700. This outlook is based on price structure, key support/resistance zones, and historical price behavior. 📉 Short-term bias: Bearish to $3000 📈 Mid-term bias: Bullish toward $3700 🔔 I’d love to hear your thoughts – drop a comment and let’s discuss. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. It’s a personal technical analysis shared for educational purposes only.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by kamalmorovati1365
2
GBP/CHF Headed to 1.10 – But Bulls Might Regret It📉 1. Price Action & Technical Structure (D1) Key demand zone tested with bullish reaction: Price reacted strongly around the 1.0790–1.0840 structural demand area, previously the origin of a significant bullish impulse. The latest daily candle closed above the previous swing low, suggesting a potential technical rebound. Immediate target: The 1.0980–1.1010 zone, aligning with: A clear supply area RSI bouncing from oversold territory A visible imbalance left unfilled Technical bias: Short-term LONG to fill the imbalance before a potential institutional-driven short setup at supply. 2. Retail Sentiment 86% of traders are LONG, with an average entry of 1.0997 Only 14% are SHORT, with lower volume and better pricing Current price: 1.0833, meaning most long traders are in drawdown Contrarian view: The heavy long positioning creates a liquidity pool between 1.0990–1.1010, making that zone highly attractive for institutional distribution and liquidation of retail longs, especially if accompanied by a structural shift. 🎯 Operational impact: Supports a technical long to 1.10, but high risk of reversal once that level is reached. 3. COT Report GBP (British Pound – CME) Non-commercials: Long: -6,434 → massive unwind of bullish exposure Short: +2,028 → rising bearish bets Net positioning is increasingly bearish Commercials: Long: +7,459 → increasing coverage against GBP weakness Short: -569 → slight reduction Positioning is mixed, but commercials are taking defensive long positions GBP interpretation: Bearish pressure rising from institutional speculators, despite some commercial support. CHF (Swiss Franc – CME) Non-commercials: Long: +327 Short: +1,215 Net positioning still heavily short, but shorts increasing again Commercials: Long: +1,909 Short: +307 Commercials are accumulating long CHF positions (bullish sign) CHF interpretation: Divergence between commercials (bullish CHF) and speculators (still short) → shift may be underway. 4. July Seasonality GBP: Historically strong in July, especially the last 2 years (+3.5%) Positive tendency across 10y/15y/20y averages CHF: Also seasonally positive in July, but underperforms GBP across most timeframes (except 2Y where CHF is also strong) Operational impact: Favors short-term bullish GBP/CHF bias, supported by seasonal momentum. ✅ Final Outlook Current short-term bias is bullish, driven by: Clear technical rebound Visible imbalance toward 1.10 Seasonal divergence in favor of GBP However, excessive retail long positioning + COT speculative pressure on GBP suggest this rally could be a distribution phase, offering an optimal short opportunity at 1.10.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
2
XRP rise to 2.32 or total surge to 2.52 or back to 2.15....Hello Losers and Winners, I am Bob, long time TV ideas listener first time poster here goes: XRP has been capitulating for maybe three days now between price 2.20 - 2.225-ish price. I see need for XRP to reduce itself to 2.15 (local cme) then to hopefully bounce and hopefully in coming 24 hrs. Alternatively stays capitulating or even bumps from here, who knows, it is a completely unpredictable coin and I love it so. (but for that reason you need bets either way):)
by bob24593
1
#USDCHF: 878+ PIPS Swing Buy In Making! Good Luck! Dear Traders, OANDA:USDCHF Price has been dropping since we had a change of character, there are many factors that are helping in USDCHF to drop. The mainly the first reason is CHF dominance in the market, CHF has been bullish ever since Gold continued the bullish trend, CHF, AUD and GOLD all of these three are positively correlated. Other fundamental reason is the blooming fear of recession in the US Market, on Friday we saw indices and stocks drop record high similarly to the first announcement of covid lockdown. USD index saw sharp drop due to this and it is likely that price will continue to do that on dxy index.
Long
by Setupsfx_
8
Nas Long to clear HH liquidity before correctionHTF Context – Monthly / Weekly / Daily • Big Beautiful Bill (Trump Tax + Spending Bill) o Passed July 4th, acting as a stimulus. o Markets historically rally on fiscal stimulus expectations (tax cuts + spending packages). o This fuels bullish sentiment short-term, but long-term raises debt, inflation risk, and rate hike concerns. • Seasonality o July is typically strong for equities, especially tech, with mid-July often marking local tops before August pullbacks. • Monthly structure o Strong bullish monthly candles. o Next major fib retracements if rejected: 38.2% ~20,398, 50% ~19,625, 61.8% ~18,852. • Weekly / Daily structure o HH-HL sequence continues. o Price in premium zone, approaching major supply block 23,200–23,300. o Daily BOS not broken downwards yet. ________________________________________ Key Levels • Major supply / liquidity magnet: 23,200–23,300 (sell-side OB in futures, uncollected liquidity above HH) • Recent swing high: 22,900 • Daily pivot: 22,470 • Intraday demand zone: 22,450–22,350 (4H wedge base + VWAP) • Weekly support shelf: 22,100–22,200 (if lost, major trend shift bearish) ________________________________________ My View – Most Likely Path 1. Price is likely to sweep the liquidity above recent highs into the 23,200–23,300 supply zone. o Why? Market rarely leaves liquidity uncollected. This move traps breakout buyers and hits stops above HHs. o Big Beautiful Bill fuels the final squeeze higher as algorithms price in fiscal stimulus. 2. After liquidity sweep above 23,200–23,300: o Expect strong rejection from that zone. o Institutions offload positions into trapped retail longs. o Price pulls back towards daily and weekly support zones for reaccumulation. 3. Alternate scenario (less likely) o Immediate sell-off from current levels without sweeping HH. o Weak move; would still expect a revisit higher later to clear liquidity before a proper downtrend. ________________________________________ Trade Setups – Intraday & Swing Intraday Long (Most Likely) • Bias: Bullish continuation • Entry Zone: 22,450–22,350 (4H demand + VWAP) • Trigger: 5m/15m BOS up • Stop: Below 22,300. • Targets: First at 22,615, next at 22,845, final at 23,200–23,300. ________________________________________ Intraday Short (Countertrend / Liquidity Sweep Reversal) • Bias: Short from supply after liquidity grab • Entry Zone: 23,200–23,300 • Trigger: Sweep of HH with rejection wick or bearish engulfing candle • Stop: Above 23,350 (structure invalidation). • Targets: First at 22,845, then 22,600, extend to 22,450 if momentum accelerates. ________________________________________ Swing Long (Continuation) • Bias: Bullish trend intact • Entry: After retest of daily pivot (22,470) or 4H demand (22,350–22,450) with 4H CHoCH + BOS up. • Stop: Below 22,200 (weekly support break invalidates). • Targets: 22,845 then 23,200–23,300. Blue sky if above. ________________________________________ Swing Short (Only if structure breaks) • Trigger: Daily close below 22,200 • Bias: Bearish trend shift • Targets: 21,800 first, then 21,000 major fib cluster and weekly MA. ________________________________________ Summary – My Final Opinion Price is in a strong uptrend fuelled by fiscal stimulus, rate cuts and tarrif hopes . I think it will sweep the liquidity above 23,200–23,300 before any deeper pullback or trend reversal. Any rejection from that supply zone will be the cue to short for a structural retracement. Until then, I’ll keep buying dips aligned with the HTF bullish structure.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by In-de-trend
1
Gold: struggle with upside momentumThe price of gold was traded at modestly higher grounds during the week, which was impacted by the further weakening of the US Dollar and also concerns raised by the approval of the so-called Trump's tax megabill, which passed the US Senate during the previous week. Investors perceive tax cuts negatively, which are estimated to add $3,4 trillion to already concerned US debt over the period of the next 10 years. As analysts are commenting, on a long run increased US debt will further weaken US Dollar, which will be positive for the price of gold. The price of gold started the week around the level of $3.250 and headed toward the highest weekly spot of $3.360. It is ending the week modestly lower, at $3.336. The RSI is still not showing any clear movement to either side, sliding around the level of 50.The MA50 has shortly continued to act as a supporting line for the price of gold, although it has been breached at one moment during the week. MA200 is moving without a change, with a holding uptrend. The potential cross is still not in store for these two lines. The week ahead is not bringing currently important macro data for the US economy, in which sense, higher volatility is not expected. Still, any news related to trade tariffs, might shortly move the market to one side. Current charts are showing that the price of gold is struggling to sustain the upside momentum, in which sense, some further retracements might be possible in the weeks to come. As per current charts, the support line at $3.280 might be tested in the coming period. On the upside, no significant movements are to be expected. There are some probabilities for the level of $3.360 in the week ahead, with lower probability that $3.400 resistance could be tested again.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by XBTFX
Gold continues to fluctuate, where will it go next week?Fundamental analysis: With the Trump administration's massive tax cut and spending bill officially implemented, the U.S. Treasury may start a "supply flood" of short-term Treasury bonds to make up for the trillions of dollars in fiscal deficits in the future. The market has begun to respond to future supply pressures. Concerns about the oversupply of short-term Treasury bonds have been directly reflected in prices - the yield on 1-month short-term Treasury bonds has risen significantly since Monday this week. A closer look at non-agricultural new jobs exceeded expectations, but nearly half came from government departments, which is likely to reverse in July. Slowing wage growth, declining total working hours, stagnant wage income growth, and worrying consumer spending are all signs of support for gold. Gold bottomed out and rose from the low of 3245 this week, and then soared all the way to 3365. Finally, the weekly line closed with a positive line with an upper shadow. From the overall trend, after the data is digested, next week will still be treated with a volatile mindset. The large range will focus on the 3280-3393 area. If it does not break, it will still be mainly a sweeping operation. On the daily line, it also closed with a positive line with a long upper shadow, and closed firmly above 3323. It repeatedly tested the pressure of 3345 and did not break and fell back. The structure still maintained an oscillation rhythm within a small range. From the 4-hour cycle, the Bollinger Bands closed significantly. If it opens normally next week, pay attention to the 3325-3315 and 3311 areas when it falls back to support, and pay attention to the 3357 and 3365 positions when it hits the high pressure. It is recommended to maintain the strategy of selling high and buying low in operation and respond to the trend.For more specific operational details and strategy updates, please pay attention to the notifications at the bottom 🌐 and follow them in time.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TP_Daniel
2
XAUUSD Sniper Outlook – July 7, 2025"Structure over noise. Patience is power. Welcome back to the battlefield." 👋 Hey traders! After a low-volume week due to the US Independence Day holiday, we now re-enter the battlefield with structure tightening under major resistance — and with Fed commentary on the radar. No CPI. No NFP. But don't sleep on the setups — liquidity is quietly shifting. 🧭 Here’s what we’ve got ahead: 🔔 Key Events – July 8–12: 🟡 Monday–Tuesday: BRICS Summit (geo/political exposure) 🔵 Wednesday: FOMC Minutes – potential policy clues 🔴 Thursday: Unemployment Claims + Fed speakers (Muserlian, Waller) ⚪ Friday: Federal Budget Balance We’re likely entering a reactive environment — fueled by internal structure shifts, not major macro catalysts. Perfect for smart money setups. 🧠 HTF Structure & Bias 🔹 Daily Bias: Price remains capped under the key daily supply 3344–3351, which rejected cleanly before the holiday. Unless that flips into support, bias remains neutral to bearish. EMAs 5/21 are curling sideways. RSI is flattening, and structure shows fading momentum. 🔹 H4 Bias: We’re consolidating below a CHoCH + LH series, inside premium territory. The rejection from 3344 was precise, and unless broken, pressure favors the downside. Price is rotating between the H4 EQ and the 3325–3332 intraday OB. Momentum is slowing — watch for re-accumulation or rejection depending on reaction at key zones. 🔴 Supply Zones (Sell Scenarios) 1. 3344 – 3351 This is the Daily + H4 supply from last week. EMA alignment + FVG + liquidity sweep confluence. Perfect sniper rejection area if price trades up and stalls. Look for M15/M30 CHoCH confirmations. 2. 3380 – 3394 Untouched H1-H4 OB in premium. Not related to CPI/NFP — just pure inducement wick potential from above. If tapped after midweek liquidity push (e.g. FOMC Minutes), watch for overreaction entries. 🟢 Demand Zones (Buy Scenarios) 1. 3325 – 3332 Last week’s discount reaction zone. H1 OB + internal CHoCH zone. If swept and protected by bullish PA (M15 BOS), this becomes the best R/R long back into 3344. Already tested Friday, but still holds weight for Monday. 2. 3286 – 3272 H4 OB + daily demand + RSI oversold zone. If we get a full breakdown early week, expect this area to act as a reaccumulation pocket for bulls — but only with confirmation. ⚔️ Decision Zone – 3299 – 3305 This is the weekly flip area. If bulls defend 3305 → bullish short-term bias returns. If 3299 fails → downside continues into 3280s. 🧠 Summary & Gameplan 🧷 No CPI. No NFP. That means cleaner technical moves — no fake news spikes, just pure structure. Expect Monday to be reactionary (post-holiday), and Wednesday–Thursday to bring intraday setups post-FOMC minutes. ✅ If price is in premium, watch for bearish rejections at 3344/3380. ✅ If price dips into discount, wait for confirmation longs at 3325 or 3286. ✅ Stay patient in mid-range. Don’t force trades inside chop zones. 🧲 If this gave you real clarity — don’t just scroll on. Hit the ❤️ button, smash Follow, and tell us in the comments: 👉 Which zone do you trust more — the 3325 reentry or the 3380 inducement trap? Let the gold tribe know 👇 — 📢 Disclosure: This analysis is based on the Trade Nation TradingView feed. I’m part of their Influencer Program and receive a monthly fee. ⚠️ Educational content only — not financial advice. — GoldFxMinds 💛 Patience | Discipline | Fearless Execution
TRADENATION:XAUUSD
by GoldFxMinds
US 10Y TREASURY: September rate cut?Jobs data posted during the previous week shaped investors sentiment. The JOLTs job openings in May reached the level of 7.769M, higher from market forecast of 7,3M. The main impact on the market came from the NFP data for June, with 147K new jobs, above market expectations of 110K. At the same time, unemployment fell to 4,1% in June. Strong jobs data significantly decreased market expectations that the Fed might potentially cut interest rates at July's FOMC meeting. Current odds still hold for September's cut. A “higher for longer” is again wording used by market participants. The 10Y Treasury yields adjusted to that expectation by increasing yields from 4,2% toward 4,33% as of the end of the week. In a week ahead, there are no currently significant US macro data scheduled for a release. In this sense, it could be expected a short relaxation of the 10Y yields, where levels between 4,3% and 4,8% could be shortly tested.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
Bitcoin: higher for longer?The investors optimism supported by better than expected US jobs data was reflected mostly in the US equity market, but the crypto market was not left behind on this occasion. Although the week for crypto was quite volatile, it showed that investors are still strongly considering investments in crypto coins for diversification of portfolios, especially BTC. The BTC spent a week struggling around the level of $107K, while making its final breakthrough toward the upside, reaching the highest weekly level at $110K. It is ending the week around the level of $108K, with an equal level of buying and selling order during the weekend. Although the price was pushed toward the $110K, the RSI did not reach the overbought market side. Actually, the indicator continued to move between levels of 50 and 60, indicating that the market is still not ready to finish the cycle and revert it toward the oversold market side. Although slowed down, the MA50 is still oriented toward the upside, same as MA200, without an indication that the cross might occur anytime soon. Current charts are indicating the probability that the support line at $106K might be tested again in the coming period. This short reversal is necessary for BTC in order to collect enough interest for a further push toward the upside. Whether the BTC will have strength to try to reach old ATH, remains unclear from current charts, but some indication holds. However, there is some probability that the $110K might be tested for one more time.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by XBTFX
XAUUSD Daily Outlook – July 7, 2025👋 Hey traders, welcome to the fresh week! After the Friday selloff, gold is approaching a key inflection point. Let’s break down what’s happening on the Daily chart and how to approach it with clarity — no guessing, just precision. Stay focused. The real opportunity is always in how you prepare. 🌍 Macro + Sentiment Market remains sensitive to yield shifts and broader risk sentiment (BRICS summit also continues) Price remains elevated in premium territory after months of vertical flow — but structure is finally showing re-accumulation or re-distribution? 📈 Daily Bias Neutral to bearish until the 3330–3344 zone fully flips cleanly as support Structure shows lower highs, strong wick rejections in premium zones, and a need for confirmation 🧠 What the chart tells us: Price is compressing between a D1 FVG (below) and unfilled premium OB (above) Friday’s low wicked into a small imbalance — but was not a clean tap into the main OB RSI is midrange, EMAs are flat, and momentum is indecisive We're either gearing up for a bullish FVG reclaim or prepping for a deeper drop into discount ⚠️ Key Zones to Watch 🔵 Support Zones (Buy Zones) 3230–3208 → D1 Fair Value Gap + unmitigated bullish OB + discount pricing → Valid only with clean bullish rejection. High interest for sniper entries if price returns. 3170–3154 → Untapped daily OB + historical support wick + aligns with deeper discount zone → Stronger bounce zone if 3230 fails. Confluence with fib retracement & RSI likely oversold here. 🔴 Supply Zones (Sell Zones) 3420–3450 → Premium FVG + D1 OB combo + previous bearish rejection wick → High probability inducement area. Valid only if price fails to hold 3344 flip. 3388–3402 → Minor supply + internal structure break level → Short-term reaction area. Lower conviction but watch for rejection if price overextends. 🟡 Decision / Flip Zone 3327–3344 → Former support now turned resistance → If this zone flips bullish and holds, bias shifts to continuation. If rejection occurs, confirms retracement deeper into discount. ✅ Conclusion The market is entering a decision week — no rush. Let the chart guide you. Clarity comes not from prediction, but preparation. This chart isn’t hindsight — it’s a live framework. ✨ Final Thought If this chart feels clear, that’s because it was built with intention — not after the move, but before it happens. The difference between noise and precision is structure. And we don’t guess — we prepare. 🚀 If you appreciate detailed, real-time structure like this, hit follow and join the traders who value clean execution over hype. 💬 Drop your bias below — bullish or bearish this week? 📢 Disclosure: I use Trade Nation's broker feed on TradingView and I'm part of their influencer program. 📉 This is educational content and not financial advice.
TRADENATION:XAUUSD
by GoldFxMinds
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Jul 07 - Jul 11]OANDA:XAUUSD opened the week at $3,246/oz due to low summer liquidity, easing recession fears and easing geopolitical tensions. However, they later recovered to $3,365/oz due to concerns about a possible re-escalation of the trade war, as some countries faced obstacles in negotiations with the US ahead of the July 9 tariff delay deadline. By the end of the week, prices had adjusted to $3,311/oz and closed at $3,335/oz. In addition, the US Senate has passed the OBBBA tax cut and spending bill proposed by President Donald Trump. While it helps prevent the risk of a short-term default, the bill could increase the US public debt by more than $3,000 billion over the next 10 years, putting pressure on the bond market and raising concerns about the increasing supply of government bonds while demand is weakening. However, US economic data over the weekend put downward pressure on gold. Specifically, the June employment report showed that the number of non-farm jobs (NFP) reached 147,000, exceeding the forecast of 111,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3%. At the same time, NFP data for April and May were also adjusted up to 158,000 and 144,000 jobs, respectively. These positive numbers almost erased the expectation that the FED would cut interest rates in July. The FED also reaffirmed its stance on maintaining the current policy due to rising inflationary pressures. Overall, gold prices are still stuck in a range, and a clearer prospect of interest rate cuts from the FED is needed to make a strong breakthrough in the near future. 📌Technically, the $3,310/oz level is now acting as an important support zone for gold prices next week. If this level is broken, prices may continue to fall further to the $3,245/oz area or even lower. On the other hand, the $3,365/oz level is a strong resistance. If gold prices break through this area, there is a high possibility that they will approach the $3,400/oz mark. However, the upward momentum may be restrained afterwards due to profit-taking pressure from investors, especially when the US-China trade negotiations are still ongoing and have not reached a final agreement. Investors tend to be cautious, waiting for clearer signals before opening new positions. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 3,300 – 3,292 – 3,250USD Resistance: 3,350 – 3,371 – 3,400USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3401 - 3399⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3405 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3294 - 3296⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3290
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
EURUSD: overboughtFriday was a non-working day in the US, as the country was celebrating Independence Day. The most important weekly macro data was related to US jobs data. At the start of the week JOLTs job openings in May were posted with a figure of 7.769M, significantly higher from market estimate of 7,3M. The next day the NFPs and Unemployment rate was published. As per data, the unemployment rate dropped by 0,1pp to the level of 4,1%, which missed market expectations of 4,2%. The Non-farm payrolls in June added 147K new jobs, again better from forecasted 110K. The average hourly earnings were higher by 0,2% in June, or 3,7% on a yearly basis, modestly below the forecasted 3,9%. Other weekly macro data including ISM Manufacturing PMI in June reached 49,0 a bit higher from estimated 48,8. The ISM Services PMI in June was standing at 50,8 in line with market estimates. Retail Sales in Germany dropped by an additional -1,6% in May, bringing the indicator to the level of +1,6% on a yearly basis. Both figures were lower from the market estimate of +0,5% for May and +3,3% for the year. Inflation rate in Germany preliminary in June was 2% a bit lower from forecasted 2,2%. Inflation for the month was standing at 0%. Preliminary inflation data for the Euro Zone in June was 0,3% for the month and 2% for the year. EuroZone core inflation was standing at 2,3% in June, exactly in line with market estimates. The unemployment rate in the Euro Zone in May was modestly increased by 0,1pp to the level of 6,3%, while the market was expecting to remain flat at 6,2%. The US Dollar continued its decline against the euro during the previous week. The highest weekly level was at 1,1825, but the currency pair closed the week at 1,1776. The RSI reached the level of 73, signalling a clear overbought market side, increasing the probability of a short term reversal in the coming period. The MA50 continues to diverge from MA200, indicating low probability of a potential cross in the future period. The eurusd daily chart is showing that the currency pair had formed a sort of channel with an uptrend during the past period. If lows from end of February, mid March and end of March are connected, the indication for a next potential level of eurusd might be somewhere above the 1,16 level. The 1,1620 was the highest level achieved in mid July this year, which aligns well with the previous indication. Indicators are currently showing higher probability of a short term reversal. The week ahead is not bringing any currently significant news with respect to the US economy, in which sense, it could be expected that the market will slow down a bit during the week. Short reversal is quite possible, where the level of 1,1620 might be shortly tested. Just in case that the market decides to continue movement toward the higher grounds, then 1,18 resistance will be tested, before the market continues its road toward the 1,19 level. Important news to watch during the week ahead are: EUR: Industrial Production in May in Germany, Retail Sales in the Euro Zone for May, Balance of Trade in Germany in May, Inflation rate final for May in Germany, USD: FOMC Meeting minutes.
by XBTFX