GBP/USD - Bearish Channel (07.07.2025)The GBP/USD Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Bearish Channel Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.3545
2nd Support – 1.3485
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Fundamental-analysis
GBP/USD - H1- Bearish Flag (07.07.2025)The GBP/USD Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Bearish Flag Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.3520
2nd Support – 1.3460
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USD/JPY - H1- Wedge Breakout (07.07.2025)The USD/JPY pair on the H1 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Wedge Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours.
Possible Long Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Resistance – 148.00
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ETH/USDT 1W Chart📊 Trend structure (Price Action)
Downtrend (historical):
A series of Lower Highs (LH) and Lower Lows (LL) — a classic downtrend.
Confirmed by the orange downtrend line.
A change in structure — a possible beginning of an uptrend:
A Higher Low (HL) has recently been formed after a Lower Low (LL).
Suggests a possible end to the downtrend and an attempt to break out upwards.
Currently:
The price is testing the upper downtrend line.
A breakout above the orange line may confirm a trend change.
🟢 Key Resistance Levels (Green Lines):
Level Meaning
3.058 USDT Potential target after a breakout from consolidation
2.767 USDT Nearest strong resistance - currently being tested
3.427 USDT Deep resistance level from the previous high (HH)
🔴 Key Support Levels (Red Lines):
Level Meaning
2.234 USDT Nearest support - previous breakout
1.883 USDT Early 2023 support
1.507 USDT Local bottom
1.204 USDT Historical support - LL extreme
📉 Stochastic RSI (Momentum Indicator):
Currently in the overbought zone.
This may suggest a short-term correction before an actual breakout.
However, in a strong uptrend, the indicator may "hang out" in the overbought zone for a long time.
📈 Potential scenario:
If the breakout above 2.767 and the orange trendline holds:
A possible move to 3.058 USDT as the first target.
Extended target: 3.427 USDT (HH).
If the breakout fails:
Correction to 2.234 USDT or lower.
There is a risk of returning to a downtrend.
✅ Bullish signals:
Higher Low (HL) formation after Lower Low (LL).
Testing the upper downtrend line with an attempt to breakout.
Volume is increasing (based on candles).
⚠️ Bearish threats:
Stochastic RSI in the overbought zone.
Breakout not confirmed by 100% (needs a weekly closing candle above 2.767).
Resistance at 3,058 could halt the move.
📌 Conclusion:
Ethereum (ETH) could be on the cusp of a new uptrend, but a breakout above 2,767 USDT is needed for confirmation. If it does, a move to 3,058 and then 3,427 is possible. However, the current overbought level on the Stochastic RSI could signal a short-term correction before the trend gains strength.
Fundamental Market Analysis for July 8, 2025 USDJPYThe yen remains under pressure from trade frictions. President Donald Trump has confirmed 25 percent tariffs on Japanese goods effective 1 August, fuelling U.S.-inflation expectations and reducing the odds of a near-term Fed rate cut. Ten-year Treasury yields have climbed above 4.45 percent, while the spread over equivalent JGBs hovers near 380 basis points—supportive for the dollar.
Japan’s domestic backdrop offers little relief. Nominal wage growth has slowed for a third straight month, and real household incomes have posted their deepest decline in twenty months. The weak earnings momentum complicates the Bank of Japan’s exit strategy and keeps ultra-loose policy firmly in place, encouraging further capital outflows from the yen.
Against this backdrop, USD/JPY is consolidating above its 100-day moving average around 146.40–146.50. Absent a sudden flight to safe-haven assets, the pair could break 147.00 in the coming sessions, while the 145.950–146.000 zone is widely viewed as an attractive area to add to long positions.
Trading recommendation: BUY 146.250, SL 145.950, TP 147.000
Fundamental Market Analysis for July 4, 2025 EURUSDEvents to pay attention to today:
12:00 EET. EUR - Producer Price Index
EURUSD:
On Friday, during the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair is trading in a narrow range around 1.1760. The main currency pair is showing sluggish dynamics amid the US holiday (Independence Day).
The US dollar (USD) is maintaining its recovery, triggered by better-than-expected non-farm payrolls (NFP) data for June. Data released on Thursday showed that the US economy added 147,000 new jobs, exceeding expectations of 110,000.
The better-than-expected NFP data brought some relief to the US dollar, but this is unlikely to continue as the report shows that private sector hiring is losing momentum. Private employers added 74,000 jobs in June, well below the three-month average of 115,000. This scenario is unlikely to ease the position of several Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, including Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, who advocated for lower interest rates at a policy meeting later this month, citing potential risks in the labour market.
In the eurozone, the sharp appreciation of the euro (EUR) has raised concerns that inflation could fall below the European Central Bank's (ECB) 2% target. According to a senior ECB official, ‘the ECB may have to make it clear that too strong a euro could be a problem, as it could cause inflation to hover below target,’ reports the Financial Times (FT).
Trading recommendation: SELL 1.17700, SL 1.18000, TP 1.16900
BNB/USD (4h interval)🔍 1. Chart structure
Instrument: Binance Coin / USD (BNB/USD)
Interval: 4 hours
📐 2. Technical formations
🔸 Breakout from the descending wedge formation
The descending wedge (orange lines) is a bullish formation - it suggests a potential breakout upwards.
The breakout occurred dynamically, with a large breakout candle (confirmation of the formation).
The goal of breaking out of the wedge is usually the height of the entire formation - this is marked with an orange arrow.
📈 Breakout range (target): around $697–710
🟢 Potential next targets:
697.83 (local resistance/projection result)
710.73 (main wedge height projection)
728.12 (strong resistance from history)
📊 3. Supports and resistances
🟥 Support zones (red rectangles):
$648.5–637.5 – previous resistance, now tested as support after the breakout.
$608.5–592.5 – strong support from previous lows.
🔼 Currently, the price has tested the upper support zone (648–637), reacted positively and continues to move up.
🟩 Resistance levels (green horizontal lines):
679.88 USD – local resistance, first target after breaking out of the wedge.
697.83 USD – projected range from the formation.
710.73 USD – full technical range of the breakout.
728.12 USD – strong resistance from history, may be a long-term target.
📉 4. Trends and support lines
Purple upward trend line – currently the price is above, which confirms the short-term upward trend.
Its break may lead to a retest of 648–637 USD.
Only below this zone can a larger correction be considered.
📈 5. Stochastic RSI indicator
Currently in the overbought zone (above 80).
Possible temporary cooling – signal for local correction / consolidation.
It is worth waiting for the indicator to go down to around 20 to re-enter the long.
✅ 6. Scenarios
🔼 Bullish (base) scenario:
Staying above 648–637 USD.
Maintaining the uptrend line.
Continuation to 679.88 → 697.83 → 710.73.
🔽 Bearish scenario:
Breaking the purple trend line.
Returning below 648 USD → going down to the 608–592 zone.
Negation of the breakout from the wedge.
📌 Final conclusions
Breaking out from the descending wedge is a strong pro-growth signal.
The price behaves in accordance with technical analysis, testing the previous resistance as support.
Currently, the retest and consolidation phase is underway – maintaining the trend line and the level of $648 will be key.
The medium-term target is $697–710.
Gold Ready to Explode Ahead of NFP and Trump’s “Super Bill”?Gold Ready to Explode Ahead of NFP and Trump’s “Super Bill”? | Global Macro Focus
🌍 MACRO UPDATE – What the World is Watching:
Gold continues its bullish trajectory as the USD weakens sharply following last night’s disappointing ADP jobs report (-33K vs expected +99K). This soft labour data has fueled further speculation that the Fed could begin rate cuts as early as September, with a 90% probability now being priced in.
In the political arena, Donald Trump’s recent statement that House Republicans are aligned to push forward a so-called “Super Bill” has triggered fresh uncertainty around US fiscal policy. This could elevate safe-haven demand for gold, especially if it leads to increased tensions over debt ceilings or government spending.
With the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) due later today and the UK and US markets heading into a long weekend, traders should brace for heightened volatility and liquidity gaps.
📈 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – What the Charts Are Saying:
Overall Trend: Bullish structure remains intact as gold breaks and holds above 3365.
EMA Setup: Price trades above EMA 13/34/89/200 – signaling strong upside momentum.
Fair Value Gap (FVG): 3374 – 3388 area remains an unfilled FVG zone; possible magnet for short-term price action.
Key Resistance Levels: 3365, 3374, 3380, 3388, 3393
Key Support Levels: 3343, 3335, 3325, 3316, 3304
Trendline & Structure: The ascending trendline from 3316 remains unbroken, providing a potential bounce point if price corrects.
🎯 TRADE SETUPS – Strategic Zones to Watch:
🔵 Buy (Short-Term Scalp):
Entry: 3335 – 3333
SL: 3329
TP: 3340 → 3350 → 3360 → 3370
🟢 Buy Zone (Swing Perspective):
Entry: 3316 – 3314
SL: 3310
TP: 3320 → 3336 → 3350 → 3360
🔴 Sell Scalp (Reversal Zone)
Entry: 3374 – 3376
SL: 3380
TP: 3370 → 3360 → 3350
⚠️ Sell Zone (High-Risk Rejection):
Entry: 3388 – 3390
SL: 3394
TP: 3380 → 3370 → 3360
🔎 NOTE FOR GLOBAL TRADERS:
With UK markets partially closed and US session shortened ahead of the Independence Day holiday, liquidity may be thin and volatility could spike unexpectedly. Always place stop-loss and avoid emotional entries near key resistance.
💬 Do you believe gold can break and close above the FVG zone (3388) before the weekend volatility hits full throttle? Let’s discuss.
Nearing the Top: A Final Push or Smart Money Liquidity Trap?EUR/USD – Nearing the Top: A Final Push or Smart Money Liquidity Trap?
🌍 MACRO OUTLOOK – EURO CLIMBS WHILE USD TREADS ON UNCERTAIN POLITICAL GROUND:
EUR/USD is trading just below the 1.1700 mark as investors remain cautious about the US dollar's long-term credibility. Growing concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence — should the “Trump 2.0” scenario unfold — have weighed heavily on USD sentiment across global markets.
Meanwhile, the Euro is gaining support thanks to a relatively hawkish tone from the European Central Bank (ECB). Policymakers appear reluctant to ease policy prematurely, which supports the Euro through expectations of prolonged higher interest rates.
However, with no major catalyst in play yet, traders are watching closely for mid-tier US data and any upcoming statements from ECB officials that might set the tone for the next directional breakout.
📊 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – H4 TIMEFRAME:
Market Structure: EUR/USD remains in a well-defined ascending price channel. However, the pair is now testing the upper band near the 1.1804 resistance, a key liquidity zone where sellers previously stepped in.
EMA Alignment: Price is trading above the EMA 13/34/89/200 cluster — a strong sign of sustained bullish momentum.
Momentum Indicators:
RSI is hovering near 70 — potential overbought territory.
ADX remains above 25 — confirming trend strength but signaling caution at extended highs.
FVG (Fair Value Gap): A visible unfilled gap between 1.1600 and 1.1640 could act as a magnetic zone for price to revisit before the next impulse move.
🔹 Key Resistance: 1.1804 – 1.1835
🔹 Key Support: 1.1640 – 1.1600 (gap zone)
🔹 Major Demand Zone: 1.1499 – 1.1515
🎯 TRADE PLAN:
Scenario 1 – Buy the Dip (Primary Bias):
Entry: 1.1600 – 1.1640
Stop Loss: 1.1550
Targets: 1.1750 → 1.1800 → 1.1850
Scenario 2 – Buy Deep Pullback:
Entry: 1.1499 – 1.1515
Stop Loss: 1.1450
Targets: 1.1640 → 1.1700
Scenario 3 – Countertrend Sell at Key Resistance (High Risk):
Entry: 1.1804 – 1.1830
Stop Loss: 1.1860
Targets: 1.1720 → 1.1650
📌 Strategic Insight:
EUR/USD may be setting up for either a breakout continuation above 1.1800 or a temporary reversal to sweep liquidity from the lower zones. Momentum favors bulls, but chasing highs without confirmation is risky. Focus on clean retracements and volume-supported entries.
💬 If EUR/USD drops back into the 1.1600 zone, will you load up for another leg higher — or wait for confirmation of trend strength? Share your view in the comments!
Fundamental Market Analysis for July 3, 2025 USDJPYEvent to pay attention to today:
15:30 EET. USD - Non-Farm Employment Change
15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Rate
15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Claims
17:00 EET. USD - ISM Services PMI
The Japanese Yen (JPY) traded with a slight positive bias against the bearish US Dollar (USD) during the Asian session on Thursday and remains near the near one-month peak reached earlier this week. Despite the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) hesitation to hike rates, investors seem convinced that the central bank will remain on the path of normalizing monetary policy amid rising inflation in Japan. This is a significant divergence from the stance of other major central banks (including the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed)), which are leaning towards a softer approach, and is favorable for lower JPY yields.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump hinted at a possible end to trade talks with Japan, and also threatened new tariffs against Japan over its perceived reluctance to buy American-grown rice. This, along with the overall positive tone towards risk, is a headwind for the safe-haven yen. In addition, traders seem reluctant and prefer to take a wait-and-see approach ahead of today's release of the closely watched US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. The crucial data will play a key role in influencing the US Dollar (USD) and will give a significant boost to the USD/JPY pair.
Trade recommendation: BUY 144.00, SL 143.00, TP 145.40
GBP/CHF - Channel Breakout (02.07.2025)The GBP/CHF pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours.
Possible Long Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Resistance – 1.0956
2nd Resistance – 1.0996
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Fundamental Market Analysis for July 2, 2025 GBPUSDOn Wednesday, during the Asian trading session, the GBP/USD pair is trading unchanged at around 1.37450. However, dovish statements by US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and growing concerns about the budget may put pressure on the dollar in the near term. Investors are awaiting the ADP report on US employment for June, which will be released later on Wednesday, in the hope of new momentum.
Powell said on Tuesday that the US central bank would be patient about further interest rate cuts, but did not rule out a rate cut at its July meeting, although the decision would depend on incoming data. According to the CME FedWatch tool, short-term interest rate futures now price in the probability of a rate cut in July at almost 1 in 4, up from less than 1 in 5 previously.
Investors are concerned about US President Donald Trump's massive tax and spending bill, which could increase the national debt by $3.3 trillion. The bill will return to the House of Representatives for final approval. Fiscal concerns could dampen optimism and contribute to a decline in the US dollar.
As for the pound sterling, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey said last week that there are currently signs of a weakening UK labor market and stressed that interest rates are likely to continue to fall. The UK central bank is expected to cut interest rates three times by the end of 2025, bringing them to 3.5% to combat sluggish economic growth and a weakening labor market. Rate cuts are expected in August, September, and November 2025, with possible quarterly reductions.
Trading recommendation: SELL 1.37450, SL 1.37900, TP 1.36750
Fundamental Market Analysis for July 1, 2025 EURUSDEvent to pay attention to today:
01.07 16:30 EET. USD - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Speaks
01.07 16:30 EET. EUR - ECB President Christine Lagarde Speaks
01.07 17:00 EET. USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI
EUR/USD is trading in negative territory near 1.1790 in the early European session on Tuesday. The US dollar (USD) is weakening against the euro (EUR) amid growing budget concerns and uncertainty surrounding trade deals.
Four people familiar with the negotiations said US President Donald Trump's administration is seeking to phase in deals with the most involved countries as they rush to reach an agreement by the July 9 deadline. Uncertainty over trade agreements continued to weigh on sentiment and sell the US dollar.
Investors are concerned about the US Senate's attempts to pass Trump's tax and spending cuts bill, which faces intra-party disagreement over a projected $3.3 trillion increase in the national debt. Fiscal concerns have dampened optimism and contributed to the decline in the US dollar. This, in turn, serves as a tailwind for the major pair.
German inflation, as measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), eased to 2.0% y/y in June from 2.1% in the previous reading. The figure was below expectations of 2.2%.
On a month-on-month basis, HICP rose 0.1% in June vs. 0.2% previously, below the market consensus forecast of 0.3%. Softer-than-expected German inflation data may limit near-term growth.
Trade recommendation: BUY 1.1795, SL 1.1725, TP 1.1880
USD/JPY Bearish Flag (30.06.2025)The USD/JPY Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Bearish Flag Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 143.40
2nd Support – 142.86
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Buy IOC short term target 155, 165 & Medium Term tgt 185, 250 Indian Oil Corporation does business in the entire hydrocarbon value chain - from Refining, Pipeline transportation and marketing of Petroleum products to R&D, Exploration & production, marketing of natural gas and petrochemicals. It has the leadership position in the Oil refining & petroleum marketing sector of India.
The company aims to strengthen EV mobility infrastructure by setting up charging points and battery-swapping facilities at its fuel stations. It has also signed a binding term sheet with Panasonic Group to form a JV for manufacturing cells in India.
The company’s R&D is focused on emerging fields such as nanotechnology, Solar, Bioenergy, Hydrogen, etc. It has an effective patent portfolio of 1636. It spent Rs 946 Cr in FY24 on R&D.
The company’s R&D is focused on emerging fields such as nanotechnology, Solar, Bioenergy, Hydrogen, etc. It has an effective patent portfolio of 1636. It spent Rs 946 Cr in FY24 on R&D.
Market Cap ₹ 2,07,370 Cr.
Annual Sales - ₹ 758,106 Cr
Dividend Yield - 8.20 %
Stock P/E - 17.0
Industry PE - 29.2
Debt to equity - 0.82
ROCE - 7.37 %
EPS - ₹ 9.63
Fundamentally, this big company is trading at a very low valuation. The Crude Oil price is expected this year to be on lowest, so we can expect good profit margin and this company is into green energy business so it should have PE multiple of that business as well. We Expect growth in EPS by 30% to 12.5 And re-rating of PE multiple to 20 so that give the share price to ₹ 250 which gives return of 70.88% from current price level of 146.30.
Technically, this is very bullish on weekly, daily timeframe. Price is trading above all short term, medium term averages. It has formed a bullish candlestick pattern on daily and weekly chart, so we expect immediate strong upside to 155, 165 and eventually 185 level and investment target of 250 levels.
Fundamental Market Analysis for June 30, 2025 USDJPYThe USD/JPY pair is attracting some sellers towards 143.85 during the Asian session on Monday. The U.S. dollar (USD) is weakening against the Japanese yen (JPY) amid rising bets for a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut.
The United States (US) and China are close to a deal on tariffs. However, U.S. President Donald Trump abruptly ended trade talks with Canada, adding uncertainty to the market's positive outlook.
In addition, traders are betting that the U.S. central bank will cut rates more frequently and possibly sooner than previously expected. Markets estimate the probability of a quarter-point Fed rate cut at nearly 92.4%, up from 70% a week earlier.
On the data side, the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index rose 2.3% in May, up from 2.2% in April (revised from 2.1%), the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Friday. This value matched market expectations. Meanwhile, the core PCE price index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 2.7% in May, following a 2.6% increase (revised from 2.5%) seen in April.
On the other hand, the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) cautious stance on interest rate hikes could put pressure on the yen and create a tailwind for the pair.
Trade recommendation: SELL 143.50, SL 144.30, TP 142.40
30/06 WILL WE SEE A RECOVERY ON THE LAST DAY OF THE MONTH? ↗️GOLD PLAN – 30/06: WILL WE SEE A RECOVERY ON THE LAST DAY OF THE MONTH? ☄️
✅ Macro Context – Focus on USD Debt and Political Pressure
Today marks the final trading day of June, and the U.S. faces a $6 trillion debt maturity from Covid-era borrowings, which may impact USD liquidity and market sentiment.
During the Asian session, gold experienced a sharp drop to the 32xx area before bouncing back and is now hovering near last week's close.
While the medium-term structure remains bearish, short-term signals suggest a potential reversal and recovery.
✅Political Catalyst:
→ Trump is pressuring the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to 1%-2%, stating he won’t appoint anyone unwilling to ease policy.
→ This raises expectations of future rate cuts, which could support gold prices in the near term.
✅ Technical Outlook – Multi-timeframe Structure
On the higher timeframes, gold continues to correct lower.
However, short-term candles are showing recovery momentum, with buyers absorbing around the 327x zone.
Today’s strategy: prioritize short-term BUY setups aligned with the recovery wave.
✔️Key Resistance & Support Levels
🔺Resistance: 3283 – 3291 – 3301 – 3322
🔻Support: 3277 – 3271 – 3259 – 3247
🔖Trade Scenarios
✅Buy Scalping
🔺Entry: 3272 – 3274
🔹SL: 3268
✔️TP: 3282 – 3288 – 3298
✅Buy Zone
🔺Entry: 3249 – 3251
🔹SL: 3244
✔️TP: 3265 – 3282 – 3295 – 3310
💠Sell Scalping
🔺Entry: 3298 – 3300
🔹SL: 3304
✔️TP: 3292 – 3282 – 3270
💠Sell Zone
🔺Entry: 3327 – 3329
🔹SL: 3333
✔️TP: 3322 – 3310 – 3298 – 3282
⚡️ Final Note
As this is the month-end session, expect possible volatility driven by USD flows and institutional rebalancing.
AVAX/USDT - H4 - Wedge Breakout (29.06.2025)The AVAX/USDT pair on the H4 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Wedge Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming Days.
Possible Long Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Resistance – 21.77
2nd Resistance – 24.35
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TURBO/USDT - H4 - Wedge Breakout (29.06.2025)The TURBO/USDT pair on the H4 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Wedge Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming Days.
Possible Long Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Resistance – 0.005173
2nd Resistance – 0.005994
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XAUUSD D1 Forecast: Gold at Pivotal 325x Support What's Next for the Yellow Metal?
Today, we're zooming out to examine the broader picture for Gold (XAUUSD) on the Daily (D1) timeframe. Our latest analysis indicates that Gold has encountered a very strong, critical support level around the 325x region. This is a pivotal point that could significantly influence Gold's medium to long-term direction!
🌍 Macroeconomic Landscape: The Underlying Forces Influencing Gold
While we've observed a degree of USD weakness stemming from speculations around the Federal Reserve (such as the rumours regarding Jerome Powell's replacement) and expectations of interest rate cuts, these factors haven't fully countered Gold's recent decline on the daily chart. Furthermore, the sustained ceasefire between Israel and Iran continues to temper Gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset.
Nevertheless, the current price action at the robust 325x support level presents a significant technical signal. The impact of forthcoming US macroeconomic data (particularly the PCE Price Index on Friday) and speeches from FOMC members will be crucial in confirming or negating our projected movements for Gold. Should positive news for Gold align with this support holding, it could act as a potent catalyst.
📊 XAUUSD D1 Technical Analysis: Projecting Gold's Next Move
Given that Gold has reached strong support at 325x, we can anticipate the following scenarios:
Bounce from 325x (Potential Upside Phase):
If the 325x area (which reinforces the 3264.400 support from image_e9d325.png) holds firm, we expect a strong reaction and an upward move for Gold.
The initial target for this bounce would be the 332x region, aligning with resistance levels 3313.737 - 3330.483 from our previous analysis. On a broader timeframe (as illustrated in image_83845c.png), this corresponds to the resistance zone around 3326.022. This 332x area might represent a continuation pattern, suggesting it could be a corrective rally before the resumption of the larger trend.
Resumption of Downtrend (After Reaching 332x):
Once Gold reaches and tests the 332x zone (3313.737 - 3330.483 / 3326.022) and exhibits bearish confirmation signals (e.g., a strong bearish engulfing candle, a pin bar, or a clear top formation), we anticipate a resumption of the downward movement.
The next major target for this decline would be the 317x area, which correlates well with the strong support at 3173.052 on the larger timeframe (as depicted in image_83845c.png).
🎯 XAUUSD D1 Trading Plan: Your Long-Term Strategy Ahead!
Considering the current D1 analysis, here's our actionable plan:
1. BUY PHASE (Bounce from Support):
Entry: Observe price reaction in the 325x - 326x zone (specifically 3264.400). Only consider buying if there are clear bullish confirmations (e.g., a confirmed bullish pattern on the daily or 4-hour candle, a strong bounce from the zone with significant volume).
SL (Stop Loss): Position just below the 325x support zone (e.g., 3245-3240, depending on confirmation).
TP (Take Profit): 3280 - 3284 - 3290 - 3295 - 3300 - 3305 - 3310 - 3313.737 - 3320 - 3326.022 (key 332x zone). This will be our primary target for the potential bounce.
2. SELL PHASE (Downtrend Resumption):
Entry: Once the price reaches and tests the 332x zone (3313.737 - 3330.483 / 3326.022) and shows bearish confirmation signals (e.g., a strong bearish engulfing, pin bar, or clear top formation).
SL (Stop Loss): Position slightly above the 332x zone (e.g., 3335-3340).
TP (Take Profit): 3326 - 3320 - 3316 - 3310 - 3305 - 3300 - 3295 - 3290 - 3280 - 3200 - 3173.052 (final 317x target).
VSA vs BTC: Into a Bearish Scenario or Not?Predicting the market requires skill.
Most traders fail at one crucial point: they don’t see the market as a living, breathing organism—a structure where one move leads to another, like cause and effect in motion.
That’s what we often call reading the psychology of the market. When you begin to grasp the fundamental principles behind that, you step into the realm of elite traders.
And yes—Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) is a powerful tool, but only if you know how to read it properly.
I’m not a certified trader or financial advisor, and I don’t give signals, entries, or exits. I’m simply a solo observer, sharing a slice of what true technical and fundamental analysis looks like.
And yes—it takes time. It takes skills. Now, if we want to even attempt predicting the future of price action, we must understand something: A chart is not a single truth. It’s a battlefield of conflicting signals.
Patterns, marks, levels—some suggest bullish continuation, others hint at sharp reversals. Confusion is inevitable if you don’t learn to distinguish which signs matter.
In our current BTC chart, we’re witnessing this contradiction unfold clearly:
• A bullish flag formation...
• Yet within it, the emerging completion of a Head & Shoulders pattern!
How arrogant can the market be! 😄
A moment to laugh—but also a moment to observe how cleverly the crowd is misled.
This is classic manipulation, wrapped in a textbook setup.
But what’s most telling isn’t the pattern on the surface—it’s the volume beneath the structure.
It’s always the quiet details that speak the loudest.
Before price shows its true face, volume often leaves footprints. In our case, those footprints were already leading toward a bearish path—long before the structure began to shape itself clearly.
So while retail eyes focused on the bullish flag, the underlying volume had already begun withdrawing support.
Not aggressively—no. Subtly, almost elegantly, in that familiar way institutions mask intention:
• Spikes that don’t hold
• Buying that doesn’t follow through
• And a steady fade in commitment as price climbs into weakness
It’s in those quiet inconsistencies where VSA earns its value.
It tells us: the move isn’t about what’s obvious.
It’s about what never fully materialized.
So yes, the pattern may still remain incomplete. The Head & Shoulders may yet fail to validate.
But for those who were watching volume first—not structure—the script was already being written.
✒️ From now on, professionally speaking, we must still wait:
• For the Head & Shoulders to confirm or dissolve. So eyes targeted at the swing low level near 107k
• And for volume to either legitimize or invalidate the entire setup
Only then does the chart grant us permission to speak in certainties.
🐾 But so far…
• The clues have favored the bears.
• Sell opportunities appeared early and often—for those who know what to look for.
• Bullish spikes in volume? They were met with silence.
• Momentum fizzled under a macro backdrop of fading demand.
If you were in the right mindset, and aligned even the lower timeframes to basic structural zones,
you already saw the path ahead wasn’t being carved by the bulls.
Let them finish the patterns.
Let the candles paint the story.
But for those trained in volume, the ink has already dried.
And if you're still reading, maybe you already sense it—
real insight doesn’t shout, and it never floats in abundance.
Value has never been about noise. It’s about what’s rare, quiet, and overlooked by the crowd.
Just like in the markets—the true signals aren’t loud, and they’re never free in the economic sense.
Just as price rises where supply thins, the same applies here:
what’s scarce... holds weight.
PS For last A little exercise, something to grasp on. Have you noticed how Volume & RSI behaves in lower time frames? 4Hour or 1Hour for example. Can you identify how volume confirms a bearish move. Do you discover the correct correlation and combined use between VSA & RSI. Remember my previous insight
See you next time!
XAUUSD: Gold's Muted Ascent Below $3350 XAUUSD: Gold's Muted Ascent Below $3350 – Navigating Key Levels Amidst USD Weakness!
Hello TradingView Community!
Let's delve into the intricate world of Gold (XAUUSD) today. The yellow metal is showing a subtle positive bias, largely influenced by a weaker US Dollar, yet a decisive bullish breakout above the $3350 mark remains elusive.
🌍 Macroeconomic Landscape: Forces Shaping Gold's Path
Gold has maintained a slight positive stance for the second consecutive day, but it's struggling to find significant follow-through, staying below the $3350 level in early European trading.
USD Under Pressure – A Tailwind for Gold: The primary driver for Gold's recent strength is the weakening US Dollar. Reports suggesting President Trump is considering replacing Fed Governor Jerome Powell have sparked concerns about the US central bank's future independence. This speculation has fueled market expectations for further Fed rate cuts this year, pushing the USD to its lowest point since March 2022, thereby providing support for non-yielding assets like Gold.
Cautious Outlook Prevails: Despite USD weakness, a definitive bullish trend for Gold is not yet confirmed. The ongoing ceasefire between Israel and Iran holds firm, with prevailing optimism limiting significant safe-haven rallies. This complex environment necessitates caution before confirming a definitive bottom for Gold or positioning for a substantial recovery from levels below $3300.
Key Data Ahead: Traders are keenly awaiting upcoming US macroeconomic data and speeches from FOMC members. These insights will be crucial in influencing XAU/USD, particularly ahead of Friday's pivotal US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index release.
📊 XAUUSD Technical Outlook: Pinpointing Strategic Zones
Based on recent technical analysis (referencing image_e9d325.png for key levels), Gold is in a consolidation phase after a recent sharp decline, trading around the $329X mark. Price action below shorter-term moving averages suggests either lingering bearish pressure or an accumulation phase.
Strong Support Zones (Potential Buy Areas): Critical demand areas are identified around 3294.414, 3276.122, and notably 3264.400. These levels are crucial for potential price bounces.
Key Resistance Zones (Potential Sell Areas): Significant supply zones are found at 3313.737, 3321.466, 3330.483, and 3341.947. These are points where selling pressure may emerge.
🎯 XAUUSD Trading Plan: Your Actionable Strategy
Here's a breakdown of the strategic entry and exit points for your XAUUSD trades:
BUY ZONE (Strong Support - Long-Term Bias):
Entry: 3266 - 3264
SL: 3270
TP: 3280 - 3284 - 3290 - 3295 - 3300 - 3305 - 3310 - 3320
BUY SCALP (Quick Buy at Intermediate Support):
Entry: 3284 - 3282
SL: 3278
TP: 3288 - 3292 - 3296 - 3300 - 3305 - 3310 - 3320 - 3330
SELL ZONE (Key Resistance):
Entry: 3331 - 3333
SL: 3337
TP: 3326 - 3320 - 3316 - 3310 - 3305 - 3300
SELL SCALP (Quick Sell at Near Resistance):
Entry: 3313 - 3315
SL: 3320
TP: 3310 - 3305 - 3300 - 3295 - 3290 - 3280
⚠️ Key Factors to Monitor Closely:
US Macro Data: Friday's US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index is paramount for market direction.
FOMC Member Speeches: Any official comments on monetary policy or inflation outlook will significantly impact USD and Gold.
Geopolitical Stability: Developments related to the Israel-Iran ceasefire can influence safe-haven demand.
GBP/CAD - Breakout (27.06.2025)The GBP/CAD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours.
Possible Long Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Resistance – 1..8857
2nd Resistance – 1.8909
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