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Fundamental-analysis

GBP/CAD - H4 - Strong BreakoutThe GBP/CAD pair on the H4 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 1.7761 2nd Support – 1.7570 Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
6
USDJPY | Hidden Bearish Divergence | 1HCurrently, the USDJPY chart shows the formation of a hidden bearish divergence and a double top pattern, both indicating that the uptrend is shifting into a downtrend. Additionally, new lower lows (LL) and lower highs (LH) are forming, confirming the change in market structure. These factors suggest the presence of a potential reversal zone (PRZ), where the price is likely to continue its downward movement. Explanation: 1: Hidden Bearish Divergence: The price is formed higher highs (HH), while the RSI is showing lower highs, signaling weakness in the uptrend and a potential reversal. 2: Double Top Formation: A double top is a strong reversal pattern, indicating that the price has struggled to break through a resistance level and is now likely to move downward. 3: Market Structure Shift: The formation of lower lows (LL) and lower highs (LH) indicates a transition from an uptrend to a downtrend, confirming bearish sentiment. 4: Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ): The confluence of divergence, the double top, and the structural change points to a PRZ where sellers are likely to dominate, pushing the price further down. This setup suggests a bearish bias, and traders could look for sell opportunities after proper confirmation, such as a retest of the PRZ or a bearish candlestick pattern.
Short
by awaisulabdeen
Fundamental Market Analysis for December 20, 2024 GBPUSDThe Bank of England kept its key rate at 4.75%, which was in line with market expectations. However, three members voted for a rate cut, which came as a surprise and emphasized the regulator's softer stance. This reinforced expectations of significant monetary policy easing in 2025 - the BoE is projected to cut the rate up to four times at 0.25%. In comparison, the Fed is planning less aggressive cuts another 1-2 times, which strengthens the US Dollar's position and puts pressure on the Pound. The economic situation in the UK remains unstable. The Bank of England lowered its GDP growth forecasts for 2024, pointing to weak economic dynamics. Despite the high growth of wages (5.2%), inflation remains above the target level, which requires the preservation of tight monetary policy. At the same time, the regulator noted that its easing will begin only after a steady decline in inflation to 2%. The fundamental background for the British currency remains negative. Investors will follow further statements of the Bank of England and economic data, but in the near future the pound is likely to continue a gradual decline. Trading recommendation: Trading mainly with Sell orders from the current price level.
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
GBPAUD to the moon?Taking a long position on GBPAUD, main reasons being: - BoE holding interest rates for now and less rate cuts are expected next year, could drive more institutions to hold GBP and increase it's value - AUD are trade partners with China who are experiencing significant economic instability - COT traders are 57% long on GBP (+2.14% compared to last week) - COT traders are 52% long on AUD, but are adding more short positions (-4.53% change in net long positions compared to last week) - Retail traders are 93% short on GBPAUD (I find that retail is usually wrong, so this is a positive signal for GBPAUD longs in my book) This trade is more based on Australia's weakness rather than Britain's strength. I was also thinking of shorting AUDJPY (see previous trade idea) or AUDUSD. I couldn't get in a position that I liked on AUDJPY (yet) and I'm already in a short position on EURUSD, so I want to diversify a bit away from the US Dollar. The reason I'm entering here is because it is filling an imbalance candle, and it's also at the 0.682 mark on the Fibonacci retracement tool. If I get taken out I don't mind, there may be better entries on GBPAUD available if that happens, or there may be an opportunity to short AUDJPY instead, which I prefer the fundamentals of. Don't take this as investment advice, I'm just sharing what I'm doing. Please don't follow me blindly, create your own strategy and ideas.
Long
by ciantrades
2
Buy GBP/CHF Bullish PennatThe GBP/CHF pair on the H1 timeframe presents a potential Buying opportunity due to a recent breakout from a well-defined Bullish Pennant pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Buy Entry: Consider entering a Long position around close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 1.1427 2nd Support – 1.1475 Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
13
Fundamental Market Analysis for December 19, 2024 EURUSDThe Pound-Dollar pair is strengthening after dropping more than 1% following the hawkish decision by the Federal Reserve (Fed) on Wednesday and is trading near 1.25900 in Asian hours on Thursday. The Pound Sterling (GBP) is receiving upward support as the Bank of England (BoE) is expected to leave interest rates unchanged later in the day, while maintaining focus on addressing elevated domestic inflation. On Wednesday, data emerged that the U.K. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.6% year-over-year in November after rising 2.3% in October. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy, rose 3.5% year-on-year in November, up from a previous increase of 3.3%. Meanwhile, annualized services inflation remained at 5%, below the forecast of 5.1% but above the Bank of England's estimate of 4.9%. GBP/USD declined on the back of a stronger US Dollar as the Federal Reserve (Fed) decided to cut rates by 25 basis points (bps) at its December meeting on Wednesday, bringing the benchmark lending rate to a range of 4.25%-4.50%, a two-year low. On Thursday, traders will be watching for weekly data on initial jobless claims, existing home sales and the final annualized third quarter (Q3) gross domestic product. Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 1.26000, if the level is fixed above consider Buy positions, if the level rebounds consider Sell positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
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Long
by HolderStat
1
Buy EUR/NZD Bullish ChannelThe EUR/NZD pair on the H1 timeframe presents a potential Buying opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Bullish Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Buy Entry: Consider entering a Long position around close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 1.8324 2nd Support – 1.8384 Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
23
Buy GBP/CHF (GBP - CPI Data)The GBP/CHF pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential Buying opportunity due to form of well-defined channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Buy Entry: Consider entering a Long position around close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 1.1427 2nd Support – 1.1474 Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
19
XAU/USD (Gold) Wedge BreakoutThe XAU/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential Buying opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Wedge pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Buy Entry: Consider entering a Long position around close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 2678 2nd Support – 2692 Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
9
AUDJPY Fall? And potential Stock Market correction?Potential short idea on AUDJPY Reasons for (potential) entry: - COT traders are buying JPY and selling AUD fairly aggressively - AUD cutting interest rates, JPY hiking interest rates - AUD could be under pressure due to reliance on China, who are facing economic uncertainty In the past, when COT traders have bought JPY as aggressively as this there's been a stock market correction after it. Not saying it's definitely going to happen again - but JPY is seen as a 'safe-haven' currency and it's usually bought up when investors are risk-off. Stocks have been on a crazy bull run for the last year, I wouldn't be too surprised if there was some sort of correction in it soon.
Short
by ciantrades
7
Fundamental Market Analysis for December 17, 2024 GBPUSDGBP/USD broke a three-day losing streak that took the pair to 1.2600 last week, recovering just over half a percent on Monday to return to the 1.2700 range. UK services PMI results for December hit an 11-month low. On Tuesday, UK traders will focus on wage and labor data. Quarterly average wages are expected to rise to 5% year-on-year. Markets await the Federal Reserve's rate decision on Wednesday. Traders will be closely watching the Fed's updated summary of economic projections (SEP) and interest rate forecasts from policymakers. U.S. PMI data for December was mixed, with the services PMI hitting multi-year highs and the manufacturing PMI falling below 50.0, indicating contraction. Retail sales data will be released on Tuesday, but may attract limited market attention ahead of the Fed's final rate decision this year. On Wednesday, traders will keep an eye on fresh UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, while the rest of the market will await the Bank of England's (BoE) latest rate decision scheduled for Thursday. The Bank of England is expected to leave the interest rate unchanged. Trading recommendation: Watching the level of 1.2700, trading mainly with Buy orders
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
XAUUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (READ CAPTION)hello my fellow traders. what do you think about this chart. comment your opinion in the comment session. current price: 2658 today a temporary bullish retracement is possible as market could not breakout w1 candle. but market is still in its liquidity zone. if market pull backs from 2668 and 2675 then its next target will be 2635 which is our demand zone. key points: 2668. 2675 demand zone: 2643. 2632 like comment and thank you for support
TVC:GOLDShort
by LindaFxTrading
Buy GBP/JPY Triangle BreakoutThe GBP/JPY pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent breakout from a Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours. Possible Long Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position Above The Broken Trendline Of The Triangle. Target Levels: 1st Resistance – 195.76 2nd Resistance – 196.50 Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
30
AUDJPY Analysis - BuyAUDJPY Analysis Overview 1. Seasonality: AUD: Bearish until midweek — Seasonal weakness in AUD early in the week aligns with a short-term bearish sentiment. JPY: Bullish — JPY strength throughout the week supports its safe-haven appeal. --- 2. COT Report (Commitment of Traders): AUD: 4-week flip indicates a Sell bias. Non-commercial short positions are increasing, signaling bearish sentiment for AUD. JPY: 4-week flip indicates a Buy bias. Non-commercial long positions are increasing, reinforcing bullish sentiment for JPY. --- 3. Fundamental Analysis: LEI (Leading Economic Indicator): AUD:Decreasing — Suggests deteriorating economic momentum, adding to bearish pressure. JPY: Range — Neutral economic conditions but still supportive due to JPY's safe-haven status. Endogenous Factors: AUD: Mix to Decreasing — Weak internal factors limit AUD’s strength. JPY: Increasing — Improving domestic conditions support JPY buying. --- 4. Exogenous Factors: GBPJPY: Strong Sell — Broader risk-off sentiment in the market favors safe-haven currencies like JPY over risk-sensitive ones like AUD. --- 5. Technical Analysis: On the 1-hour chart: A Cup and Handle pattern and an ABCD pattern are forming, indicating bullish potential. After point C, the price is making Higher Highs (HH) and Higher Lows (HL), suggesting a bullish continuation. These bullish patterns present a good Buy Opportunity, especially as the price confirms its breakout above the handle. --- Bias: Buy Despite AUD's seasonal weakness early in the week, the technical setup on the 1-hour chart favors a bullish bias for AUDJPY. JPY's strength provides additional support for safe-haven flows, but the technical patterns indicate that AUDJPY has room to rally in the short term. Consider entering long positions upon confirmation of the breakout above the handle.
Long
by asadamalik
NVIDIA set to make one more higher high to $165?Technical Analysis: ================ A series of higher highs and higher lows in Weekly Timeframe: NVIDIA has found support at $132, which previously acted as a resistance area during June, July, and August 24. If the stock continues to rise from this level, we could see another higher high (yellow cap) around $165. Alternatively, a deeper correction toward $104 could still be on the table if the support fails. Fundamental Analysis: ================== 1) If NVIDIA struggles, it would suggest AI's momentum is waning—which is clearly not the case. This downtrend might simply reflect profit-taking by large traders. 2) The "Santa Rally" is in play, and NVIDIA appears to be on the "nice" list, signaling potential upward momentum. 3) NVIDIA's Blackwell product line is expected to contribute significantly to profits in the next quarterly earnings, potentially providing a substantial boost to the stock. I bought NVIDIA stock at $145 and plan to hold sell at $160.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by spranav
1
Fundamental Market Analysis for December 16, 2024 EURUSDThe Euro-dollar pair starts the week with continued gains, trading around 1.05200 during the Asian session on Monday. This rise can be attributed to the decline in the US Dollar (USD) amid lower US Treasury bond yields ahead of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate decision scheduled for Wednesday. The Fed is widely expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut at its final monetary policy meeting in 2024. Market analysts predict the U.S. central bank will cut rates but prepare the market for a pause given the strong U.S. economy and inflation stalled above 2%. According to CME's FedWatch tool, markets have already all but priced in the possibility of a quarter basis point rate cut at the Fed's December meeting. In addition, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference and dot plots will be closely watched. Earlier this month, Powell struck a cautious tone, saying, “We can afford to be a little more cautious in trying to find a neutral stance.” He indicated he was in no rush to cut rates. The euro gained support after President Emmanuel Macron appointed centrist ally Francois Bayrou as France's prime minister, raising hopes for political stability. Macron promised to quickly select a new candidate for the job after Michel Barnier was forced to resign following a confidence vote in parliament. Trading Recommendation: Watch the level of 1.05000, if consolidated below consider Sell positions, if rebounded consider Buy positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
WHERE WILL THE EUR GO NEXT?Trading Plan Baseline Short-Term Sentiment Bias: - Euro under pressure, trading below $1.05 due to ECB rate cuts and political uncertainty in France and Germany. - Markets expect an additional 50 basis points cut by February. Upcoming Risk Events : - German Manufacturing PMI (Dec): Previous: 43.0, Consensus: 43.1. - German Services PMI (Dec): Previous: 49.3, Consensus: 49.5. - Eurozone Flash Manufacturing PMI: Previous: 45.2, Consensus: 45.3. - Eurozone Flash Services PMI: Previous: 49.5, Consensus: 49.5. Surprise: Positive Surprise: - Outcome: PMI beats expectations. - Trade: Long EUR/CHF (bond yield spreads suggest upside). Negative Surprise: - Outcome: PMI misses expectations. - Trade: Quick scalp on EUR/NZD (slight downside based on bond yield spreads). Bigger Picture Macro-Fundamental Bias - ECB's Stance: Data-dependent approach, removed restrictive rate stance. - Inflation Outlook: Headline inflation projected to average 2.4% in 2024, decreasing to 1.9% by 2026. - GDP Revisions: Lowered to 0.7% in 2024 and 1.1% in 2025. - Market Expectations: Continued rate cuts expected due to weak growth and low inflation.
by Midas_Macro
GOLD → Consolidation. Which way will the momentum go? XAUUSD in consolidation phase. The market is nervous because of misunderstanding of further actions in anticipation of news. What to expect and what can happen? The US labor market is stronger than expected, but the dollar remained cold amid expectations of more important news. At the moment, there is a 75% chance of a 0.25% interest rate cut. But, the dollar is still in demand due to the unstable geopolitical background. At the moment gold depends on the US employment data, ADP and Powell's speech Bad employment data may increase the probability of further Fed rate cuts in 2025. And vice versa. But, this background is unlikely to create a medium-term potential for gold..... Also, in the perspective of NFP... Technically, gold is in consolidation and the price exit from the flag boundaries may be accompanied by a strong impulse. The probability of a further fall is a little higher... Resistance levels: 2651, 2660 Support levels: 2636, 2618 Gold continues to test the support 2636, which only increases the probability of a breakdown and further fall. But on the background of the news, the price may test the resistance before a further fall
FX:XAUUSD
by MarketAnalyzar
Fundamental Market Analysis for December 13, 2024 USDJPYFading hopes of a Bank of Japan rate hike in December are putting the JPY bulls on the defensive. Higher U.S. bond yields are supporting the dollar and putting pressure on the low-yielding yen. The Japanese yen (JPY) continues to defend against its U.S. counterpart, lifting the USD/JPY pair closer to 153.000 or a new monthly peak during the Asian session on Friday. Recent media reports suggest that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will not raise interest rates at its upcoming meeting next week, which in turn continues to undermine the Yen. In addition, expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will be less dovish continue to support rising US Treasury yields and put further pressure on the low-yielding yen. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan's quarterly Tankan survey released today showed that business confidence of Japan's major manufacturers improved slightly in the fourth quarter of 2024. This fits well with the central bank's plans to gradually raise interest rates and could deter yen bears from aggressive bets. In addition, lingering geopolitical risks and concerns over US President-elect Donald Trump's tariff plans should help limit losses for the safe-haven yen ahead of next week's key central bank events - the Fed and Bank of Japan meetings. Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 153.000, trading mainly with Buy orders.
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
GBPJPY BUYS TO 194.600?Trading Plan for GBP BASELINE 🎯 Current short term sentiment bias and upcoming risk events (previous # & consensus expectations) that can impact said sentiment Current Short-Term Sentiment Bias : - The British pound is trading around $1.276, near a one-month high, driven by expectations of a cautious BoE. - Investors are focused on upcoming UK economic data, particularly GDP and manufacturing production for October, which are expected to show modest growth. Upcoming Risk Events : - GDP (MoM) (Oct): Consensus 0.1%, Previous -0.1% - GDP (YoY) (Oct): Consensus 1.6%, Previous 1.0% - Industrial Production (YoY) (Oct): Consensus 0.2%, Previous -1.8% - Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct): Consensus 0.3%, Previous -0.5% - Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Oct): Consensus 0.2%, Previous -1.0% - Manufacturing Production (YoY) (Oct): Consensus 0.9%, Previous -0.7% - Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change (Oct): Consensus 0.2%, Previous 0.1% SURPRISE ⚡ What outcome of the risk event will surprise the markets based on the baseline Positive Data Surprise : - Outcome: If the data beats expectations across the board, it will likely reinforce market expectations of no rate cuts next week. - Market Reaction: Continued pound strength. - Trade Pair: GBP/JPY - The yield spread between UK and Japan bonds suggests potential upside for this pair. Negative Data Surprise : - Outcome: If the data misses expectations, the pound could weaken as investors speculate on a more dovish BoE outlook. - Market Reaction: Pound weakness. - Trade Pair: GBP/NZD - The yield spread between UK and New Zealand bonds favors a downside move in this pair. BIGGER PICTURE 🌐 Does this outcome changes the larger macro-fundamental bias Macro-Fundamental Bias: - Current Expectation: The BoE is expected to hold interest rates steady at 4.75% at its next meeting on December 19. - Future Outlook: Governor Andrew Bailey has hinted at gradual rate cuts starting in 2025, with markets pricing in three 25-basis-point cuts by the end of next year. - Implications: A positive data surprise would support the current expectation of no immediate rate cuts, while a negative surprise could lead to speculation about a more dovish stance from the BoE.
by Midas_Macro
Gold Trading Idea: Is a New ATH on the HorizonGold prices took a breather on Thursday, snapping a four-day rally and dropping over 1%. This pullback comes amid mixed US economic data, with softer-than-expected job reports and higher producer prices creating uncertainty. Profit-taking ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting further pressured prices, with XAU/USD currently trading around $2,684. Fundamental Insight Despite the recent dip, Gold remains a safe haven asset in the face of geopolitical tensions and central banks’ dovish monetary stance. The European Central Bank’s third consecutive rate cut and expectations of the Federal Reserve reducing rates by 25 basis points next week could set the stage for renewed upside momentum. As we edge closer to year-end, political tensions and easing monetary policies globally could fuel Gold’s potential to challenge new all-time highs. Technical Outlook On the charts, Gold respected the $2,720 key level, forming a double-top pattern reminiscent of a "batman face." Key levels to watch are: Resistance: $2,720 Support: $2,689 and $2,610 A break above $2,720 could signal a bullish continuation, while a dip to $2,610 may offer a strong buying opportunity for long-term traders. Stay tuned for more trading insights and strategies!
TVC:GOLD
by InwardTrader
1