Get started

Fundamental-analysis

IS THE BULLISH CHANNEL NEARING EXHAUSTION OR JUST GEARING UP?GBPUSD OUTLOOK – IS THE BULLISH CHANNEL NEARING EXHAUSTION OR JUST GEARING UP? 📊 Macro Overview: The USD continues to soften slightly as markets begin pricing in a potential rate cut by the Fed later in Q3. Meanwhile, the British Pound (GBP) is holding firm, supported by stronger-than-expected UK macroeconomic data—particularly retail sales and inflation figures. However, UK fiscal concerns remain a headwind, and GBPUSD is highly sensitive to upcoming U.S. data—especially Core PCE and employment figures this week. 📉 Technical Analysis: On the 1H chart, GBPUSD is moving within a broad ascending channel and is now approaching the upper resistance trendline at 1.3555 – a key zone that could trigger short-term profit-taking. EMAs 13 and 34 are still in bullish alignment, supporting ongoing momentum. Despite the bullish setup, current candle structure suggests a potential pullback to the 1.3448 support zone before a continuation higher—if buyers regain control. 🔑 Key Price Levels: Resistance Zones: 🔸 1.3555 – Channel top resistance 🔸 1.3586 – Extended resistance zone Support Zones: 🔹 1.3448 – Technical and Fibo confluence 🔹 1.3398 – Major structure support in case of breakdown 🛠️ Trade Scenarios: ✅ Scenario 1: BUY on retracement Entry: 1.3448 (watch for bullish confirmation on H1) Stop Loss: 1.3394 Take Profit: 1.3500 → 1.3555 → 1.3585 ✅ Scenario 2: SELL scalp from resistance Entry: 1.3555 Stop Loss: 1.3588 Take Profit: 1.3500 → 1.3460 🧠 Final Thoughts: GBPUSD remains bullish in structure but is testing key resistance levels. A clean pullback to the 1.3448 region may provide a strong buying opportunity if confirmed by price action. If this level breaks, bearish divergence could kick in and push the pair back to deeper support zones. Stay alert for high-impact economic releases and trade with solid risk management!
Long
by MMFlowTrading
5
GBP/USD - Triangle Breakout (23.05.2025)The GBP/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours. Possible Long Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Resistance – 1.3502 2nd Resistance – 1.3534 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
64
Digital gold breaks records: Bitcoin broke through the $111,000 On May 22, 2025, Bitcoin (#BTCUSD) reached a new all-time high, surpassing the $111,000 mark. Notably, this record was set on the day marking the 15th anniversary of Bitcoin Pizza Day - a symbolic date commemorating the first real-world purchase made with #BTCUSD in 2010. Several major factors have contributed to the recent rise of Bitcoin: Institutional Investment : The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs by BlackRock, Fidelity, and others has opened the door for large-scale investors to access #BTCUSD, boosting both liquidity and demand. Regulatory Clarity : The adoption of clear cryptocurrency regulations in the U.S. and the EU has increased trust in digital assets and attracted more conservative capital. Banking Integration : Support for #BTCUSD by apps like PayPal, Revolut, and major banks has simplified access for millions of users and expanded its real-world usage. Macroeconomic Instability : Inflation, geopolitical tensions, and the weakening of fiat currencies have strengthened demand for #BTCUSD as "digital gold" and a means of capital preservation. Halving and Technological Progress : The reduction in BTC issuance and the ongoing development of the Lightning Network are reinforcing Bitcoin’s scarcity and enhancing its fundamental value. Surpassing such a significant price level has reinforced #BTCUSD’s position as one of the key assets in today’s financial markets, confirming its status as "digital gold." The rally has sparked a wave of optimism and renewed activity on crypto exchanges, while also drawing increased interest in digital assets from the broader public. FreshForex analysts share the view that #BTCUSD still holds significant growth potential. In our assessment, the breakout above $111,000 in May signals a continuing upward trend and the possibility of further gains, driven by growing institutional interest.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
GOLD XAUUSD PLAN – MAY 23 IS GOLD READY TO SURGE AGAIN?GOLD XAUUSD PLAN – MAY 23 | GEOPOLITICAL RISKS FLARE UP – IS GOLD READY TO SURGE AGAIN? 🌍 MACRO CONTEXT: Iran-Israel-US Tension: Iran has warned that if Israel attacks its nuclear facilities, the U.S. will also be held responsible. Tehran vows to take “special measures” to protect its nuclear program, and has filed formal complaints with the UN. Markets are reacting sharply to this growing geopolitical risk. Goldman Sachs Alert: Goldman Sachs recommends gold and crypto (Bitcoin) as safe-haven assets amidst soaring bond yields, fiscal crisis fears, and a failed 20-year U.S. Treasury auction. They warn that rising yields are now posing serious threats to equities while the dollar faces longer-term pressure. 📉 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (M30): Price has bounced off the 3303 zone, and is showing signs of a bullish breakout if 3360 is taken out. There is a clear Fair Value Gap (FVG) above 3360–3380, which has yet to be fully filled. Below, the untested FVG zone near 3274–3250 remains vulnerable if support fails. EMA 13 is trending above EMA 34 and EMA 200 → bullish bias remains valid as long as 3274 holds. 🔑 KEY LEVELS TO WATCH: SELL Side Key Level: 3358–3360 → A breakout above this zone could lead to a retest of ATH near 3400–3450. BUY Side Key Level: 3276–3274 → Losing this zone could push gold back below 3200, targeting deeper correction levels. 📈 TRADE SETUPS: 🔵 BUY ZONE: 3276 – 3274 SL: 3270 TPs: 3280 → 3284 → 3288 → 3292 → 3296 → 3300 🔵 BUY SCALP: 3304 – 3302 SL: 3298 TPs: 3308 → 3312 → 3316 → 3320 → 3325 → 3330 → 3340 🔴 SELL ZONE: 3376 – 3378 SL: 3382 TPs: 3372 → 3368 → 3364 → 3360 → 3350 🔴 SELL SCALP: 3344 – 3346 SL: 3350 TPs: 3340 → 3336 → 3332 → 3328 → 3324 → 3320 🧠 FINAL THOUGHTS: Gold remains highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines and macro instability. As long as the 3303 support area holds, look for bullish continuation towards FVG highs. Break below 3274 may shift the bias sharply to the downside. Stay alert — volatility is expected to rise ahead of the next U.S. data and developments in the Iran nuclear issue.GOLD XAUUSD PLAN – MAY 23 | GEOPOLITICAL RISKS FLARE UP – IS GOLD READY TO SURGE AGAIN? 🌍 MACRO CONTEXT: Iran-Israel-US Tension: Iran has warned that if Israel attacks its nuclear facilities, the U.S. will also be held responsible. Tehran vows to take “special measures” to protect its nuclear program, and has filed formal complaints with the UN. Markets are reacting sharply to this growing geopolitical risk. Goldman Sachs Alert: Goldman Sachs recommends gold and crypto (Bitcoin) as safe-haven assets amidst soaring bond yields, fiscal crisis fears, and a failed 20-year U.S. Treasury auction. They warn that rising yields are now posing serious threats to equities while the dollar faces longer-term pressure. 📉 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (M30): Price has bounced off the 3303 zone, and is showing signs of a bullish breakout if 3360 is taken out. There is a clear Fair Value Gap (FVG) above 3360–3380, which has yet to be fully filled. Below, the untested FVG zone near 3274–3250 remains vulnerable if support fails. EMA 13 is trending above EMA 34 and EMA 200 → bullish bias remains valid as long as 3274 holds. 🔑 KEY LEVELS TO WATCH: SELL Side Key Level: 3358–3360 → A breakout above this zone could lead to a retest of ATH near 3400–3450. BUY Side Key Level: 3276–3274 → Losing this zone could push gold back below 3200, targeting deeper correction levels. 📈 TRADE SETUPS: 🔵 BUY ZONE: 3276 – 3274 SL: 3270 TPs: 3280 → 3284 → 3288 → 3292 → 3296 → 3300 🔵 BUY SCALP: 3304 – 3302 SL: 3298 TPs: 3308 → 3312 → 3316 → 3320 → 3325 → 3330 → 3340 🔴 SELL ZONE: 3376 – 3378 SL: 3382 TPs: 3372 → 3368 → 3364 → 3360 → 3350 🔴 SELL SCALP: 3344 – 3346 SL: 3350 TPs: 3340 → 3336 → 3332 → 3328 → 3324 → 3320 🧠 FINAL THOUGHTS: Gold remains highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines and macro instability. As long as the 3303 support area holds, look for bullish continuation towards FVG highs. Break below 3274 may shift the bias sharply to the downside. Stay alert — volatility is expected to rise ahead of the next U.S. data and developments in the Iran nuclear issue.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MMFlowTrading
3
Fundamental Market Analysis for May 23, 2025 EURUSDEvent to pay attention today: 17:00 EET. USD- Volume of home sales on the primary market EURUSD: EUR/USD is recovering its recent losses from the previous session and is trading around 1.1310 during Asian hours on Friday. The pair is rising on the back of lower US Treasury yields, which continue to decline after the US 30-year bond yield retreated from 5.15 per cent, the highest in 19 months. US President Donald Trump's ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’ has passed the House of Representatives and is on its way to the Senate, sparking fears of a widening budget deficit in the United States (US). However, EUR/USD lost around 0.50 per cent on Thursday as the US dollar gained as the S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for May came in at 52.1, up from April's 50.6. Meanwhile, the manufacturing PMI rose to 52.3 from 50.2 previously, while the services PMI rose to 52.3 from 50.8. Fed Chairman Christopher Waller noted on Thursday that markets are watching fiscal policy. Waller also said that if rates are close to 10%, the economy will be in good shape for H2 and the Fed may be in a position to cut rates later this year. The Financial Times reported that President Trump is pushing the European Union (EU) to cut tariffs or impose more duties. US Trade Representative Greer is set to tell fellow EU Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security, Maroš Šefčovič, that the recent ‘explanatory memorandum’ does not meet US expectations. Trading recommendation: BUY 1.13200, SL 1.13000, TP 1.14200
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
EUR/USD Forming Double Top –Bearish Reversal Toward Key Support?📉 EUR/USD Technical Outlook – Bearish Bias Developing 🔍 🟪 Key Resistance Zone: 📍 1.1350 – 1.1450 Price has tested this resistance zone multiple times, forming a double-top pattern (🔄) within the highlighted circle. This signals buying exhaustion and potential reversal pressure. The recent failure to break above confirms the zone’s strength. 🔴 EMA Confluence: 🧭 50 EMA (red): ~1.1242 🧭 200 EMA (blue): ~1.0961 The price is currently hovering just above the 50 EMA but well above the 200 EMA, which is acting as a dynamic support. The crossover has already occurred, so if price breaks below the 50 EMA decisively, momentum could shift bearish. 🔻 Support Breakdown Risk: A breakdown from the 1.1200 neckline area (highlighted in red oval) would confirm the double-top pattern 🎯. That opens downside potential toward the strong demand zone below. 🟪 Strong Support Zone: 📍 1.0700 – 1.0800 This area aligns with prior consolidation (March lows) and the 200 EMA, making it a high-probability reversal zone 📈 if the bearish scenario plays out. 📌 Trade Setup Insight: ✅ Bearish confirmation below 1.1200 neckline 📉 🎯 Target: 1.0800 zone ❌ Invalidation: Break above 1.1350 resistance 🔵 Summary: The chart is hinting at a classic double-top reversal below a key resistance zone. If price breaks the neckline, sellers are likely to gain control, targeting the strong support near the 200 EMA. 📊 Bias: Bearish 👇 📅 Timeframe: Daily 🛑 Risk Management: Watch for fake-outs near neckline; volume confirmation preferred.
Short
by MrStellanSight
25
USDCAD RETEST OR FRESH DOWNTREND? PRICE AT A CRUCIAL CROSSROAD!USDCAD 22/05 – KEY RETEST OR FRESH DOWNTREND? PRICE AT A CRUCIAL CROSSROAD! 🌐 MACRO BACKDROP: Canada’s CPI and Retail Sales have come in weaker than expected, signaling sluggish consumer demand and reducing the probability of near-term rate hikes by the Bank of Canada. Meanwhile, the USD is stabilizing, supported by steady U.S. Treasury yields after the Fed reaffirmed its “higher for longer” stance. Oil prices, a major driver of the Canadian Dollar, have shown no significant breakout, further weakening CAD’s bullish momentum. 🔍 TECHNICAL OVERVIEW (H1–H4 Chart): After hitting a key swing low at 1.3820, USDCAD is now retracing towards the 0.5 Fibonacci zone (1.3889 – 1.3913), which also aligns with: The 200 EMA resistance (red line) Previous structure rejection zone ➡️ This area is critical – it could act as a trap zone before price resumes downward or breaks to confirm a short-term bullish reversal. 📈 TRADE SETUPS: 🔻 SELL SETUP (HIGH PROBABILITY IF PRICE FAILS AT RESISTANCE): Entry: 1.3900 – 1.3913 Stop Loss: 1.3930 Take Profit Targets: 1.3884 → 1.3859 → 1.3847 → 1.3820 🔹 BUY SETUP (IF PRICE HOLDS ABOVE THE BASE ZONE): Entry: 1.3820 – 1.3823 Stop Loss: 1.3805 Take Profit Targets: 1.3847 → 1.3880 → 1.3913 ⚠️ STRATEGY NOTES: Be cautious during the New York session, as potential comments from Fed officials or crude oil updates could spike volatility. This is a textbook case of “reaction vs. continuation” at a Fibo cluster – stick to confirmed candlestick signals to avoid false breakouts. 📌 FINAL THOUGHTS: USDCAD is in a corrective rally after an extended decline. The 1.3913 zone is a key decision point. Sellers should watch for signs of exhaustion, while buyers can target short-term retracements if support holds at 1.3820.
Long
by MMFlowTrading
4
BREAKOUT OR REJECTION? WATCH 0.64137 KEY ZONE CLOSELY! AUDUSD 22/05 – BREAKOUT OR REJECTION? WATCH 0.64137 KEY ZONE CLOSELY! 🌐 MACRO OVERVIEW DXY is starting to lose momentum after a sharp rally fueled by the Fed’s hawkish stance. However, there’s still no clear signal of an imminent rate cut. Meanwhile, the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) maintains a steady policy, offering short-term support for AUD. While rates remain unchanged, the central bank’s cautious tone adds a defensive layer for the Aussie. On the trade front, Australia has seen marginal recovery in commodity prices, though ongoing concerns about Chinese economic slowdown continue to weigh on sentiment. 📊 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (Timeframes: H1 – H4) AUDUSD is forming a tight symmetrical triangle, with lower highs and higher lows — a typical precursor to a breakout. The current price at 0.6418 is sitting right along the lower trendline. Price action here is critical to determine today’s direction. 🔍 Scenario A – Upside Breakout (30% probability): If price breaks and closes above 0.64700–0.64910, we could see bullish continuation toward the 0.65134 resistance zone. 🔍 Scenario B – Breakdown (70% probability): A strong break below 0.64137 could trigger a move toward 0.63964 and potentially deeper into the 0.63640 liquidity zone. 🎯 TODAY'S TRADE PLAN 🔵 BUY SCALP (only if price reacts strongly at trendline support) Entry: 0.6414 – 0.6416 SL: 0.6408 TP Targets: 0.6445 → 0.6470 → 0.6490 🔴 SELL SETUP (if triangle is broken to the downside) Entry: 0.6405 – 0.6396 SL: 0.6420 TP Targets: 0.6364 → 0.6340 ⚠️ IMPORTANT NOTES Expect high volatility during the U.S. session as PMI and Unemployment Claims data are released. Stick to your TP/SL levels with discipline — the market may sweep liquidity on both sides before choosing a direction. 📌 SUMMARY: AUDUSD is consolidating in a clean technical pattern while macro uncertainty looms. Whether we break up or down, the key is to trade what the market gives — not what we think. React to confirmation, not prediction.
by MMFlowTrading
STRUCTURE SHIFT OR FALSE BREAKOUT? MAJOR MOVE LOADING? EURUSD 22/05 – STRUCTURE SHIFT OR FALSE BREAKOUT? MAJOR MOVE LOADING? 🌐 MACRO OUTLOOK The market remains caught between dovish expectations and hawkish reality. While recent US CPI and PPI came in weaker than expected, Fed officials have refrained from confirming any imminent rate cuts, keeping the dollar resilient in the medium term. Meanwhile, the ECB’s cautious stance and ongoing inflation risks across the eurozone continue to cap euro strength. The divergence in tone between the Fed and the ECB adds to the short-term volatility and uncertainty around EURUSD’s direction. 📉 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (H1 + H4 Timeframe) EURUSD has faked a breakout above the 1.1310–1.1320 resistance zone and is now pulling back to the key structure support around 1.1279 — a critical short-term level. 📌 Key Observations: Bearish engulfing candle formed on H1 after price rejected the upper zone → potential reversal signal. EMA 13 is crossing below EMA 34 → suggesting short-term downside pressure. A confirmed H1 close below 1.1279 opens room for deeper retracement towards 1.1234 (previous demand/FVG area). If momentum builds, we could see a broader correction toward 1.1148 in the coming days. ⚙️ TRADE STRATEGY FOR TODAY 🔻 PRIMARY SCENARIO – SELL THE RALLY Entry Zone: 1.1315 – 1.1318 (near FVG + fake breakout zone) Stop Loss: 1.1360 Take Profit Targets: → TP1: 1.1279 → TP2: 1.1234 → TP3: 1.1148 🔹 ALTERNATE SCENARIO – BUY SCALP ON STRONG REACTION Buy Entry: 1.1234 – 1.1230 (only with bullish M15 confirmation) Stop Loss: 1.1210 Take Profit: 1.1279 → 1.1300 🧠 STRATEGIC INSIGHT A D1 candle close below 1.1234 will confirm a structure break and likely initiate a deeper downward trend. On the flip side, if 1.1234 holds and US jobless claims disappoint later today, EURUSD may recover back to test 1.131x. Market sentiment is highly reactive — stay flexible and prioritize price action confirmation. 📌 FINAL THOUGHTS: EURUSD is at a pivotal point — either confirming a new downtrend or bouncing back within the current range. This is a trader’s market: clear key levels, disciplined risk management, and adaptive execution are essential. 📈 Follow for real-time chart updates, FVG mapping, and more daily trading setups. Stay smart, stay sharp. Risk management first.
Short
by MMFlowTrading
2
FVG LIQUIDITY & POLITICAL SHOCKS: WILL THE SELLERS STRIKE BACK?GOLD PLAN 22/05 – FVG LIQUIDITY & POLITICAL SHOCKS: WILL THE SELLERS STRIKE BACK? 🌍 Fundamental & Geopolitical Overview: 🔺 Breaking Political News: On the night of May 21, two Israeli embassy officials were fatally shot near the Jewish Museum in Washington in what’s being labeled an anti-Semitic terrorist act. → Former President Trump condemned the attack, calling it “disgusting” and demanding an end to extremism. → Events like these typically boost gold as a safe haven, but this time the market appears hesitant. 🔺 Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve remains hawkish, signaling “higher-for-longer” interest rates. → This continues to support USD strength, putting downward pressure on gold. 🔍 Technical Outlook (H1): Gold (XAUUSD) recently topped around 3397, followed by a strong bearish rejection candle at that level. Two Fair Value Gaps (FVG) are now defining market sentiment: Upper FVG: 3330 – 3356 (partially filled) Lower FVG: 3277 – 3247 → highly likely to be targeted if breakdown occurs. EMA 13 & EMA 34 are flattening out, indicating consolidation within a breakout range. 🧭 Trade Strategy for Today: 🔻 PRIMARY SELL ZONE: Entry: 3395 – 3397 Stop Loss: 3401 Take Profit: 3390 → 3386 → 3380 → 3376 → 3370 🔻 SELL SCALP: Entry: 3358 – 3360 Stop Loss: 3364 Take Profit: 3354 → 3350 → 3346 → 3342 → 3338 → 3330 🔵 BUY ZONE: Entry: 3296 – 3294 Stop Loss: 3290 Take Profit: 3300 → 3304 → 3308 → 3315 → 3320 → 3330 → ??? 🔵 BUY SCALP: Entry: 3316 – 3314 Stop Loss: 3310 Take Profit: 3320 → 3324 → 3328 → 3332 → 3340 → 3350 ⚠️ Key Things to Watch: FBI and White House responses to the DC shooting could ignite renewed risk-off sentiment, pushing gold higher suddenly. A break above 3400 invalidates today’s setup – expect renewed bullish pressure if that happens. 📌 Pro Tip: Don’t chase the market. Let price come to your zones. Respect SL/TP and manage risk – especially on volatile days like today. 📣 Follow this account for live updates, scalping levels, and macro-triggered trading zones in real time!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MMFlowTrading
USDJPY- IS it a beginning of major bulish trend nowthe USD/JPY pair is currently in a major bullish trend, driven by several key factors: 1. Interest Rate Differentials: The U.S. Federal Reserve maintains higher interest rates compared to the Bank of Japan, attracting capital flows into the U.S. dollar and away from the yen. 2. Dovish Bank of Japan: Despite global tightening, the BOJ remains cautious about raising rates or ending yield curve control, weakening the yen further. 3. Robust U.S. Economic Data: Strong economic indicators from the U.S. (such as inflation, jobs, and GDP growth) continue to support expectations of prolonged higher rates, boosting the dollar.
Long
by SadarExplore
1
#DAX30 Surges to 24,000: What’s Behind the Record-Breaking RallyOn May 20, 2025, Germany’s benchmark stock index, the #DAX30, crossed the 24,000-point threshold for the first time in its history, reaching an all-time high of 24,079.40. This historic milestone reflects growing investor confidence in the prospects of Europe’s largest economy. The surge of the #DAX30 beyond the 24,000 mark was driven by a combination of key factors: Improved geopolitical climate : Global tensions have eased — most notably between the United States and China. Signs of de-escalation in trade policy between the world’s largest economies have bolstered investor confidence. Additionally, an improved negotiation climate in Eastern Europe, particularly due to reduced conflict in Ukraine, has helped lower market uncertainty. Strong corporate earnings : Major German corporations within the #DAX30 have posted robust quarterly results. Leading the charge were technology giants (e.g., SAP) and industrial powerhouses (such as Siemens and BMW), which reported increased profits despite a challenging macroeconomic environment. This has reinforced confidence in the resilience of German businesses. ECB monetary policy expectations : Markets are pricing in a potential easing of the European Central Bank’s monetary policy. Although interest rates remain elevated, growing signals of a possible rate cut in the second half of 2025 are stimulating equity markets and making stock investments more attractive. Export growth and trade optimism : The reduction of trade barriers, a stronger euro, and a rebound in global trade have positively impacted export-driven German companies. As one of the world’s leading export economies, Germany is benefiting from a renewed global demand recovery. Hopes for domestic reforms : The German government is actively pushing investments in infrastructure, digital transformation, and the green economy. These initiatives are boosting investor sentiment, particularly in the technology and sustainable energy sectors. Technical momentum : From a technical perspective, the breakout above the 24,000 level served as a catalyst for speculative capital inflows. Many traders and funds that follow trends and resistance levels initiated buy positions after the breakout, amplifying the upward momentum. This combination of fundamental and technical drivers has created a powerful growth impulse for the # DAX30 . According to analysts at FreshForex, the index may continue its upward trajectory — provided current macroeconomic stability is maintained.
BLACKBULL:GER30Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
2
USDJPY TRADE PLAN – MAY 21 BIG BREAKOUT AHEAD?USDJPY TRADE PLAN – MAY 21 | FED HAWKISH BUT YEN STAYS WEAK – BIG BREAKOUT AHEAD? USDJPY is entering a critical technical zone as the market weighs the Fed’s persistent hawkish stance against Japan’s passive approach to the Yen’s depreciation. After a strong rally, we are seeing a potential exhaustion with key levels in play. 🌍 MACRO CONTEXT: FED remains hawkish: Officials continue to support higher-for-longer interest rates to tame inflation → USD remains firm. Bank of Japan silence: No signs of FX intervention or rate policy shift, causing ongoing weakness in JPY. Risk sentiment neutral: Risk-off flows are muted; USDJPY remains trapped in a wide range – awaiting macro catalysts. 📊 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (H2 CHART): Price is now correcting within a falling channel. Price broke below the MA200 and rising trendline, now retesting a key support zone at 143.77. The current range 141.99 – 144.71 is critical – a breakout from either end may dictate the next medium-term direction. 🎯 TRADE SETUPS FOR TODAY: ✅ SCENARIO A – SELL THE RALLY (PRIMARY BIAS): If price rejects 144.71: SELL ZONE: 144.70 – 144.71 SL: 145.10 TP: 143.77 → 143.30 → 142.50 → 141.99 → Key resistance area – price may trigger strong seller interest. ✅ SCENARIO B – SELL ON BREAKDOWN: If price breaks 143.77 and retests: SELL ZONE: 143.60 – 143.70 (post-breakdown entry) SL: 144.10 TP: 142.50 → 142.00 → 141.99 ✅ SCENARIO C – SHORT-TERM BUY (LESS FAVORABLE): If price reacts positively at 141.99 with bullish confirmation: BUY ZONE: 141.90 – 141.99 SL: 141.50 TP: 142.50 → 143.00 → 143.77 → Only take this setup if strong reversal signals appear. 🔑 KEY LEVELS TO WATCH: Resistance: 144.71 – 145.00 – 148.44 Support: 143.77 – 143.30 – 141.99 – 141.20 📌 FINAL THOUGHTS: USDJPY remains in a volatile consolidation zone, pressured by a hawkish Fed but lacking JPY strength. Watch for PMI data and Fed comments this week for directional cues. Until then, respect the current range and trade with discipline. 📣 Bias favors SELL from 144.71 unless buyers reclaim full control – trade the reaction, not the prediction!
Short
by MMFlowTrading
2
NZD/USD TRADING PLAN – MAY 21 | RETEST OR CONTINUATION?NZD/USD TRADING PLAN – MAY 21 | RETEST OR CONTINUATION? 🔍 After several steady bullish sessions, NZD/USD is pulling back slightly from the 0.5961 resistance zone. The pair remains within a well-defined ascending channel on the H1 chart and is approaching a key support area around 0.5910 — a zone that could trigger a technical bounce and continuation of the current bullish trend. 🌍 MACRO CONTEXT: The US Dollar Index (DXY) is showing signs of weakness following disappointing CPI and PPI data. This opens up room for commodity currencies like NZD to recover further. Meanwhile, New Zealand's domestic consumption data has exceeded expectations, and the RBNZ continues to maintain a stable policy outlook — a medium-term bullish sign for NZD. Market sentiment is leaning cautiously against the USD, especially as the Fed holds its “no cut but no hike” stance — boosting interest in alternative currencies. 📊 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (H1): NZD/USD is trading within an ascending price channel. EMA 13 is above EMA 34 and EMA 200 — a positive short-term trend signal. Two important zones to watch today are 0.5910 (key support) and 0.5961 (key resistance). 🎯 TRADE SETUPS FOR TODAY: ✅ SCENARIO A – BUY THE RETEST: If price tests the 0.5910 zone and shows strong reaction: BUY ZONE: 0.5910 – 0.5915 SL: 0.5890 TP: 0.5960 → 0.5980 → 0.6000 → 0.6006 → This zone aligns with ascending channel support + prior FVG → strong rebound probability. ✅ SCENARIO B – BREAKOUT & CONTINUATION: If price breaks and holds above 0.5961: BUY SCALP: 0.5965 – 0.5970 SL: 0.5950 TP: 0.5980 → 0.6000 → 0.6006 ❌ SCENARIO C – BEARISH BREAKDOWN: If price fails to hold above 0.5910 and closes H1 candle below it: SELL SCALP: 0.5900 – 0.5895 SL: 0.5915 TP: 0.5870 → 0.5850 → 0.5820 📌 FINAL THOUGHTS: NZD/USD is at a critical decision point — this could be a retest before continuation to 0.6000 or the beginning of a deeper drop. Watch the 0.5910 level closely to determine market direction. ⚠️ Risk management is key — high volatility expected as U.S. PMI data is set for release during today’s NY session. 🧠 Be patient. Let price come to your zone. React, don’t predict.
Long
by MMFlowTrading
1
GOLD 21/05 – FED'S HAWKISH STANCE VS. TECHNICAL LEVELSGOLD MARKET UPDATE 21/05 – FED'S HAWKISH STANCE VS. TECHNICAL LEVELS – BIG MOVE AHEAD? Gold’s recent rally has paused as traders weigh the latest signals from the Federal Reserve. Despite geopolitical tensions and softer U.S. economic data, the Fed is sticking with a "higher-for-longer" interest rate policy, which has kept the U.S. dollar strong and put pressure on gold’s price action. 📉 However, the technical outlook suggests a different story. ⚙️ TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Is It A Bearish Trap Or A Hidden Bullish Opportunity? Looking at the 1H timeframe, XAU/USD is consolidating after reaching a major Fair Value Gap (FVG) between 3328–3356. This zone reveals significant volatility and potential liquidity grabs, with two key FVG zones forming above and below the current price levels. There’s a potential bullish scenario if gold retraces to the 3250–3252 support zone, where strong trendline confluence and dynamic support are likely to drive demand. On the flip side, any rejection from the 3354–3356 SELL ZONE could initiate a bearish trend, pushing gold lower to test key structural support levels. 💹 TRADING STRATEGY FOR TODAY: 🔵 BUY ZONE Entry: 3252–3250 Stop Loss: 3246 Take Profit: 3256 – 3260 – 3264 – 3268 – 3272 – 3280 – 3300 – ??? 🔵 BUY SCALP Entry: 3277–3275 Stop Loss: 3272 Take Profit: 3280 – 3284 – 3288 – 3292 – 3296 – 3300 🔻 SELL ZONE Entry: 3354–3356 Stop Loss: 3360 Take Profit: 3350 – 3346 – 3342 – 3338 – 3334 – 3330 – 3320 🔻 SELL SCALP Entry: 3328–3330 Stop Loss: 3334 Take Profit: 3324 – 3320 – 3316 – 3310 – 3305 – 3300 🌍 MACRO INSIGHT The Fed’s hawkish stance continues to weigh on gold, but geopolitical uncertainty and ongoing de-dollarization trends maintain gold’s appeal. China, along with other central banks, is still actively accumulating gold, signaling that long-term bullish pressure remains intact. Keep an eye on U.S. data this week, especially PMI and jobless claims, as these could act as short-term catalysts for gold. 📌 KEY NOTES Volatility is increasing, so stay disciplined. Stick to your key levels and manage risk effectively. Patience and strategy will be key as the market moves in the coming days. Stay alert and trade wisely!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MMFlowTrading
2
Fundamental Market Analysis for May 21, 2025 GBPUSDThe GBP/USD pair rose slightly on Tuesday, rising to 1.34000 (but failed to overcome it). The price is ahead of key inflation and business outlook data: the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) is due out on Wednesday and a double dose of UK and US Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) survey results on Thursday. Trade news remains the key driver for global markets this week. Investors remain hopeful of a deal with the US that will encourage the Trump administration to pull the tariff gun away from the head of its own economy, but the constant drift into the unknown is starting to limit bullish sentiment. The Trump administration is rapidly approaching its self-imposed 90-day deadline to pass a package of “retaliatory tariffs.” While some potential trade deals have been announced, nothing concrete has emerged. UK CPI inflation for April will be released early Wednesday. Mid-market forecasts expect the monthly CPI to rise to 1.1% m/m from the previous reading of 0.3%. Annual CPI is also expected to rise to 3.3% from 2.6%. UK core CPI inflation is also expected to rise, to 3.6% y/y from 3.4%. A double batch of UK and US PMIs will be released on Thursday. Markets are expecting a broad-based increase in indexed forward-looking business activity survey results, while mixed data is expected in the US. The US manufacturing PMI for May is expected to decline to 50.1 from 50.2, while the services component is expected to remain unchanged at 50.8. Trading recommendation: BUY 1.34200, SL 1.33900, TP 1.34900
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Key Rejection Zone Approaching – Bearish Setup in PlayChart Summary: Asset: Unspecified (USD-based) Timeframe: Short-term (likely 1H or 4H) Indicators: EMA 50 (red): 3,245.772 EMA 200 (blue): 3,223.635 Key Zones: Resistance Zone (Red box): ~3,310–3,360 Target/Support Zone (Red box): ~3,110–3,160 Mid Support Zone (Blue box): ~3,200–3,230 Trendline: Downward sloping resistance connecting major highs --- Technical Breakdown: Trend Analysis: Primary Trend: Bearish ⬇️ Confirmed by the downtrend line (black) which has been respected multiple times (3 clear touches). Current Price: 3,290.090 Price is approaching a key confluence zone: resistance area + trendline. This area has previously acted as strong supply. Moving Averages: EMA 50 > EMA 200: Minor bullish signal (Golden Cross), but price action is still below major resistance. However, this cross may be a false signal if price gets rejected here. --- Price Action: Current Move: Strong bullish push toward resistance after rebounding from the target zone ✅ The resistance zone and trendline are likely to act as a rejection point unless broken decisively. --- Bearish Scenario (High Probability): If price fails to break above the resistance zone: Expect a rejection and move back toward: Blue mid-support: ~3,220 Target zone: ~3,130 (major demand area) Confirmation: Bearish candlestick pattern or strong wick rejections near resistance. 🔵 Entry Idea: Short near 3,310–3,350 🎯 Target: 3,130 zone ✋ Stop-Loss: Above 3,360 (above trendline + resistance) --- Bullish Scenario (Less Likely): If price breaks above the resistance zone with strong volume: Could signal trend reversal Next target levels: ~3,400+ --- Conclusion: Bias: Bearish near resistance zone Key Level to Watch: 3,310–3,360 (critical for direction) Trading Approach: Wait for confirmation, don't preemptively short without rejection signals.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MrStellanSight
20
AAVEUSD 1D ChartHello everyone, I invite you to review the current situation of AAVE in the USD pair. When we enter the one-day interval, we can see how the AAVE price will see a return above the main upward trend line, but here we can see that we are still below the formed downward trend line, which in the event of further increases may prove to be a strong resistance. Here we can see how the current rebound is fighting the resistance at $ 256, only when the level is positively tested, resistance will be still visible at the price of $ 290, this will be a strong resistance right next to the downward trend line, only a positive exit from the top and staying above this trend line can lead to movement towards resistance at $ 339. Looking the other way, we can see that when the trend reverses, we first have a support zone from $ 233 to $ 211, however, if this zone is broken, we can see a quick return of the price to the support area at $ 174. The Stoch RSI indicator shows that despite the current upward movement, there is still room for the upward movement to continue.
CRYPTO:AAVEUSD
by cryptodailyuk
USDCHF Will the Downtrend Break or Bounce? Full Trade Plan TodayUSDCHF – Will the Downtrend Break or Bounce? | Full Trade Plan Today 🔥 🌍 Macro Overview USDCHF remains in a short-term bearish correction, reflecting current macroeconomic uncertainties surrounding US interest rate expectations and safe-haven demand for CHF. USD is under pressure after softer-than-expected CPI and PPI data last week, increasing speculation that the Fed may cut rates in Q3. CHF continues to benefit from its safe-haven status amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and fragile European growth. However, the key support around 0.8318 has acted as a major demand zone. If bulls react strongly here, we could see a technical rebound in the short term. 📉 Technical Analysis (H1–H2) USDCHF is trading within a descending channel, showing lower highs and lower lows. Price is now testing the lower boundary of the channel around 0.8318, which also aligns with a key liquidity area. EMAs (13 and 34) still slope downward, but momentum is slowing — a possible signal that sellers are losing strength. 🔑 Key Levels to Watch 🔺 Resistance Zones: 0.8395 → Recent swing high & supply zone 0.8459 → Medium-term structural resistance 🔻 Support Zones: 0.8318 → Major confluence zone (channel bottom + demand block) 0.8230 → Final support level before deeper drop 🎯 Trade Setups ✅ Scenario A – Bullish Reversal from Support (Preferred): Entry (Buy): 0.8318 – 0.8322 (after bullish rejection confirmation) Stop Loss: 0.8288 Take Profits: 0.8395 → 0.8430 → 0.8459 ✅ Scenario B – Bearish Breakdown Below Support: Entry (Sell): 0.8300 – 0.8310 (only if price closes below 0.8310 on H2) Stop Loss: 0.8340 Take Profits: 0.8260 → 0.8230 → 0.8200 ⚠️ What to Watch Today: Market may see higher volatility during the US session, especially with housing data (Existing Home Sales) and Fed speakers lined up. Watch for clean price action around 0.8318 — no need to rush entries until confirmation appears. This is a reactive market, not a predictive one. Let price speak first. 📌 Follow for real-time market updates and actionable strategies during US trading hours.
Long
by MMFlowTrading
7
GBP/USD Retracement or Reversal? Stay Sharp as Momentum FadesGBP/USD Trading Plan – May 20th | Retracement or Reversal? Stay Sharp as Momentum Fades 🌐 Macro Overview GBP/USD is currently influenced by several macroeconomic forces: USD strength is returning, supported by stable US data (Retail Sales, Jobless Claims), leading the market to delay expectations of a Fed rate cut. The British Pound is under pressure as the Bank of England (BoE) is not expected to raise rates further amid slowing domestic growth and easing inflation. Simultaneously, US-China trade tensions and US debt concerns are keeping market sentiment cautious. The pair is forming a bullish flag structure, but signs of exhaustion are emerging. 📉 Technical Analysis (2H Chart) GBP/USD is moving within a rising channel. However: 1.3433 remains a strong resistance, aligning with a local top — breakout potential is limited in the short term. A rising wedge pattern is forming — watch for a potential trap followed by a sharp sell-off. EMA13 and EMA34 are diverging, signaling distribution and potential reversal ahead. 🔑 Key Levels to Watch Major Resistance: 🔺 1.3433 – recent swing high and potential double top 🔺 1.3355 – mid-range resistance and EMA34 convergence (H2) Key Support: 🔻 1.3303 – key FIBO + trendline intersection 🔻 1.3251 – medium-term bullish structure support 🔻 1.3174 – previous swing low and strategic BUY ZONE 🎯 Trading Scenarios 📍 Scenario A – False Break and Rejection from Resistance Entry (SELL): 1.3430 – 1.3433 (after bearish confirmation) Stop Loss: 1.3460 Take Profits: 1.3355 → 1.3303 → 1.3250 📍 Scenario B – Breakdown and Failed Retest Entry (SELL): 1.3303 – 1.3310 (after support break and retest) Stop Loss: 1.3340 Take Profits: 1.3251 → 1.3174 📍 Scenario C – Deep Buy from Strong Support Entry (BUY): 1.3170 – 1.3174 Stop Loss: 1.3140 Take Profits: 1.3251 → 1.3300 ⚠️ Key Reminders: Stay cautious ahead of key US releases this week (PMI, FOMC Minutes), which may trigger high volatility. Avoid FOMO and respect SL/TP discipline — especially near potential trap zones. 📌 Follow for intraday updates and real-time trade setups as the structure evolves. Flexibility is key in this market.
Long
by MMFlowTrading
Gold Price Market in a Sideways Phase Awaiting BreakoutGold Price Drops Amid Hawkish Fed Comments - Market in a Sideways Phase Awaiting Breakout Gold (XAU/USD) has experienced a sharp drop following recent hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve. The continuation of tight monetary policy has unsettled investors, leading to strong sell-offs during both the Asian and US trading sessions today. 📊 Technical Analysis: Currently, gold is forming a new sideways range, and if you zoom out to higher timeframes, you'll notice a classic bearish flag pattern developing. This suggests that gold is in a period of consolidation before a potential large-scale breakout. While the upward momentum from both the Asian and European sessions was strong, gold failed to break the critical 3250–3255 zone. This area remains vital for determining the next direction in gold's price action. Should the bearish trend continue, if we break the support trendline below the current price, the likelihood of the bearish flag pattern playing out rises to around 80%. This could lead to further price corrections. Key Levels to Watch: Support Levels: 3205, 3194, 3280, 3262 Resistance Levels: 3244, 3262, 3278, 3286 📈 Trading Strategy: BUY SCALP: Entry: 3294 - 3292 Stop Loss (SL): 3288 Take Profit (TP): 3298 → 3302 → 3306 → 3310 → 3315 → 3320 → 3330 BUY ZONE: Entry: 3272 - 3270 SL: 3266 TP: 3276 → 3280 → 3284 → 3288 → 3292 → 3296 → 3330 SELL SCALP: Entry: 3242 - 3244 SL: 3248 TP: 3238 → 3234 → 3230 → 3226 → 3220 → 3210 SELL SCALP: Entry: 3276 - 3278 SL: 3282 TP: 3272 → 3268 → 3264 → 3260 → 3250 → 3240 ⚠️ Risk Management: As we approach the close of the week, the volatility in gold could intensify, especially with the Fed’s actions, market sentiment, and geopolitical developments. Always follow your TP/SL to safeguard your investments and avoid unnecessary risk. 🧠 Final Thoughts: The market is in a consolidation phase, and it's essential to wait for confirmation before taking significant positions. If gold fails to break the 3250–3255 resistance zone, the chances of a more significant move downwards increase. However, be cautious, as the market is volatile, and things can shift rapidly.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MMFlowTrading
Fundamental Market Analysis for May 20, 2025 EURUSDEURUSD: EUR/USD tested high levels on Monday, briefly rising to 1.1300, but then retreated slightly, although the day ended higher overall. Nevertheless, the pair remains in a short-term consolidation zone. Last Friday, rating agency Moody's downgraded the United States (US), stripping it of its latest AAA rating on Treasuries, citing the growing US debt and long-standing government budget deficits that various presidential administrations have either neglected or failed to manage effectively. While initial investor reaction was shaky, sentiment quickly stabilised and the impact on US creditworthiness was largely written off. Still, Treasury markets are struggling: On Monday, 30-year bond yields topped 5 per cent and 10-year yields topped 4.5 per cent. Federal Reserve (Fed) officials have been working hard this week to manage market expectations for a possible rate cut. Fed policymakers have continually reminded investors that ongoing U.S. tariff and trade policies complicate the outlook for the national economy, which in turn affects rate adjustments. Thursday will see the release of German and pan-European purchasing managers' index (PMI) reports from HCOB, providing a double dose of business expectations surveys on both sides of the Pacific. Both the German and pan-European PMIs are expected to rise moderately. The key economic data release from the US will be the S&P Global PMI data for May, where average market expectations suggest a slight decline in both the manufacturing and service components of the PMI report due to the impact of tariffs on business spending. Trading recommendation: BUY 1.1250, SL 1.1230, TP 1.1350
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
1