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Fundamental-analysis

XAU blueprint In accordance to my last publish on the xau Daily time frame analysis, we all agree that the (long term) foresight of the xau market is bullish, all I've done in the 4hour time-frame is highlighting all possible zones of a possible reaction leading to a minor sell. Note that any of those zones highlighted which causes a market reaction resulting in a sell/bearish movement is merely a retracement as the foresight is bullish 👍 Follow me for more updates on the analysis and market turnarounds....
FXOPEN:XAUUSDLong
by Nuelz007
FRONTLINE PLC Long - Dollar Cost AverageThis is an analysis of Frontline PLC - a Norwegian oil transportation company, the following is strictly my own personal opinion and does not constitute financial advice. Key numbers: Dividend yield expected 2024 - 17% P/B - 2.03 P/E - 5.41 Market cap 47 178 MNOK (4.5 BUSD) Analyst estimates: Analyst estimate average for FRO is 267.5 NOK which is equivalent to a 32.3% increase from todays price. Key information: FRO has had a significant increase in price the past 6 months, and analysts estimate an increase in both dividends and growth for the company in the coming years. Technical analysis: FRO made a bullish divergence on the 195-200 support level recently, after a significant sell off the past few weeks the stock did not even drop as a result of dividends being paid out to stock holders, and I see this as a sign of the stock being about to reverse the downwards trend and begin to move back towards my price target of 260-280. Strategy: I am currently in possession of FRO shares with a GAV of 150 NOK/Share as well as increasing my position on friday for 200 NOK/Share. I am looking to hold these shares until price reaches 260-300 NOK/Share depending on coming events. If the price keeps moving down, I will look to hold my position until the stock reaches my price target regardless, as the dividend payout is significant. This might change if significantly bearish news arise, but I do not see that as a high probability at this moment. If price reaches my profit target, I will again look at analyst estimates and given there is no change I will exit my position for a significant gain. If analyst estimates increase I will either close part of my position or hold it until bearish divergence on the 4H timeframes.
OSL:FROLong
by DonBboy
2
US Financial Markets facing CPI after US Down-Graded to AA+- Emerging Markets are in a paranoid state due to Major US Financial Markets nearing scheduled date of CPI numbers releasing day. Consensus forecasts are anticipating Inflation to steadily go up for the rest of 2023 and entering '24 10'th of August/23 will be a very important day for The Global Financial Markets. Casualties might follow soon due to the turbulence of this frenzy economic environment created. Is US about to enter a recession ? Or do you believe Powell's joke of 'Soft Landing' How about another joke Powell ... Note that US technically had entered recession by two negative consecutive Quarters, however, it got 'saved' by promising growing employment numbers. Seems like Feds are masters at postponing cascading tragedies, great tricksters filled with riddles. With Euro-Zone being officially in Recession for a while now, it's just a matter of time for US fate to be sealed. Why learn economics !? Broader and clearer pictures to strategize your investing/positioning and smaller time frames trading decisions, be it swings, intradays or scalps. Seems like it is enough today for a good poker player and a gambler to trade the markets. How many times can you get lucky in repetitive motion and consider making in to trading for a living ?! Not long . Open your horizons and explore financial literacy to be more in touch with Facade of Financial Markets.
TVC:SPX
by Mr_J__fx
Technical vs. Fundamental Analysis: Finding a BalanceLooking to make more holistic investment decisions, but not sure how? Understanding the difference between technical and fundamental analysis and how to incorporate both is an essential step to accomplishing holistic investing. Today we will explore how finding a balance between these pillars of trading can help you navigate the complex world of investing. The Importance of Finding a Balance Finding the right balance between technical and fundamental analysis can be the key to successful investing. By combining the two approaches, traders gain a comprehensive understanding of a stock's potential, taking into consideration both the short-term market trends and the long-term value. When it comes to investing, it's important to have a complete view of the market. Relying solely on technical analysis may leave you susceptible to missing out on crucial information about a company's financial health and growth prospects. Similarly, relying purely on fundamental analysis may cause you to overlook short-term market trends that could impact the stock's price in the near future, potentially leading to poor entries and exits. A balanced approach allows you to leverage the strengths of both technical and fundamental analysis, providing you with a more complete picture of the investment opportunity at hand. So, whether you're a short-term trader or a long-term investor, finding the sweet spot between technical and fundamental analysis can help maximize your chances of making a profitable investment. Understanding Technical Analysis Technical analysis focuses on analyzing historical price and volume data to predict future price movements. Traders using this approach often rely on chart patterns, indicators, and trendlines to identify buy and sell signals. Chart patterns, such as triangles, head and shoulders, and double tops/bottoms, provide insights into potential price reversals or continuations. These patterns are formed as a result of the collective actions of market participants and can signal impending price movements. However, when using price patterns it is critical to understand the statistical odds of success for completion of the pattern. Price patterns can be subjective to the trader's skill and overall directional bias, so traders should combine price patterns with other forms of technical analysis. Indicators, such as moving averages, Relative Strength Index (RSI), and Bollinger Bands, help traders identify overbought or oversold conditions, measure the strength of a trend, and spot potential entry or exit points. When indicators are combined to form a robust and complementary system traders gain a wealth of information about the near-term health of an underlying asset. It is critical to note that no indicator system is perfect and will not guarantee you a 100% success rate. However, when paired with proper risk mitigation, psychology, and supporting forms of technical analysis, using indicators can lead to long-term success. Trendlines are used to analyze the direction and strength of a stock's price movement. Drawing trend lines connecting the highs or lows of a stock's price can help identify support and resistance levels, price channels, and potential trend reversal areas. Support and resistance zones are price levels on a chart that indicates where trends are likely to pause or reverse. Support is a zone where a downtrend pauses due to demand, while resistance is a zone where an uptrend pauses due to supply. These zones are based on market sentiment and human psychology, shaped by emotions such as fear, greed, and herd instinct. Traders tend to congregate near these zones, strengthening them. Support levels indicate a surplus of buyers, while resistance levels indicate a surplus of sellers. It's important to note that these levels are not exact numbers but rather "zones" that can be tested by the market. Understanding how these tools work and how to interpret their signals is crucial for technical analysis. It allows traders to make intuitive decisions based on historical price patterns and market dynamics. However, it's important to note that technical analysis has its limitations. Limitations of Technical Analysis While technical analysis can provide valuable insights into a stock's potential price movements, it's important to recognize its limitations. Technical analysis is primarily focused on historical data and patterns, which may not always accurately predict future price movements. Market sentiment, news events, and other external factors can significantly impact a stock's price, often rendering technical analysis less effective. If you don't believe me, just look at the price charts for the last four years. Try to pinpoint major world or domestic events such as the start of the pandemic or the Fed's hawkish shift. Additionally, technical analysis does not take into account the intrinsic value of a company, which is a key consideration in fundamental analysis. Therefore, relying solely on technical analysis to make investment decisions may leave you vulnerable to market uncertainties and potential pitfalls. This is where fundamental analysis comes into play. Understanding Fundamental Analysis Fundamental analysis involves examining a company's financials, industry trends, and market conditions to determine its intrinsic value. Investors who lean towards fundamental analysis believe that a company's true worth is reflected in its financial strength and growth potential. Key factors considered in fundamental analysis include a company's revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, debt levels, competitive positioning, and management team. By analyzing these factors, investors can assess whether a company is undervalued or overvalued, and make investment decisions accordingly. Most, if not all of this information is readily available on the internet, but it can take some digging to find all the information one would need. There is also a wide range of financial-related indicators readily available on TradingView. Fundamental analysis also takes into account macroeconomic factors, such as interest rates, inflation, and government policies, which can impact the overall market and the performance of individual stocks. How to Conduct Fundamental Analysis Conducting fundamental analysis involves a thorough examination of a company's financial statements, such as its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement. These statements provide insights into a company's revenue, expenses, assets, liabilities, and cash flows. Analyzing financial ratios, such as the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, return on equity (ROE), and debt-to-equity ratio, helps investors assess a company's financial health and profitability. Much of this information is available on TradingView under the financials tab. TradingView has done an excellent job of making a majority of the aforementioned financial data available, right at your fingertips. Industry analysis is another important aspect of fundamental analysis. Understanding the industry dynamics, competitive landscape, and market trends can provide insights into a company's growth potential and its ability to outperform its peers. There is a plethora of this information online, and diligence in your research will make a world of difference. By combining financial analysis with industry analysis, investors can gain a deeper understanding of a company's overall prospects and make more informed investment decisions. Finding a Balance Between Technical and Fundamental Analysis Finding the right balance between technical and fundamental analysis requires a thoughtful approach. Here are some strategies to help you integrate the two approaches: Start with fundamental analysis: Begin by analyzing a company's financials and industry trends to assess its long-term growth potential. This will provide you with a solid foundation for your investment decisions. Use technical analysis for timing: Once you've identified a promising investment opportunity based on fundamental analysis, use technical analysis to refine your entry and exit points. Technical indicators and chart patterns can help you identify optimal times to buy or sell a stock. Consider the bigger picture: While technical analysis focuses on short-term market trends, it's important to consider the long-term value of a company. Evaluate the fundamental factors that can impact a company's growth potential and use technical analysis as a tool to validate your investment thesis. Keep an eye on market sentiment: Market sentiment can influence stock prices in the short term. By staying informed about news events, economic indicators, and market trends, you can better understand the context in which technical and fundamental analysis are operating. By finding a balance between technical and fundamental analysis, you can better manage your investment decisions that take into account both short-term market dynamics and long-term value. This balanced approach can help you navigate the complex world of investing and maximize your chances of success. In conclusion, understanding the difference between technical and fundamental analysis is crucial for making theoretically sound investment decisions. By finding a balance between the two approaches, you can gain a comprehensive understanding of a stock's potential, considering both the short-term market trends and the long-term value. So, whether you're a short-term trader or a long-term investor, incorporating both technical and fundamental analysis can help provide a better view and maximize your chances of making profitable investment decisions. Happy Trading!
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by LeafAlgo
16
Gold struggles to gather momentum following rebound to $2,040Gold advanced to the $2,040 area in the second half of the day on Thursday but lost its momentum. Despite the renewed USD weakness, rising US yields limit XAU/USD's upside as market focus shifts to Friday's November jobs report. Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some buying for the second straight day on Thursday, albeit lacks follow-through and remains confined in a familiar range held over the past three days through the first half of the European session. The fundamental backdrop, meanwhile, seems tilted firmly in favour of bullish traders amid growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is done with its policy tightening campaign and will start cutting rates as early as March 2024. Furthermore, the recent dovish rhetoric from European Central Bank (ECB) officials, along with the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) and the Bank of Canada's (BoC) decision to hold rates steady, lifted hopes that interest rates have peaked globally. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a tailwind for the non-yielding yellow metal. Meanwhile, a strong pickup in demand for the Japanese Yen (JPY) demand, bolstered by expectations for a hawkish pivot by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), prompts some profit-taking around the US Dollar (USD). In fact, the USD Index, which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, corrects sharply from a two-week high touched on Wednesday and turns out to be another factor lending support to the US Dollar-denominated commodity. Apart from this, the prevalent cautious market modo turns out to be another factor contributing to the modest intraday uptick. Bulls, however, seem reluctant and prefer to wait for the release of the US monthly jobs data on Friday.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by dc_analytics
EUR USD IdeaIt sounds like the EU pair presented a favorable opportunity, reaching up to the previous range's mega sell level, knocking them out, and now experiencing a heavy selloff. I hope you and your fellow traders followed the steps provided, engaging in both swings and scalps. A nice Christmas indeed if the charts have been cooperative. Looking forward to what 2024 will bring, it's crucial to stay positive and remember that successful trading requires patience. Invest time in allowing trades to come to you, rather than the other way around. It's a slow game, but patient investors tend to find success in navigating these charts. Wishing you continued success in your trading endeavors!
Short
by themarketknight
ETH/USDT 1DInterval ChartI invite you to review the ETH/USDT chart on a one-day interval. Here, using the blue lines, we will define the upward trend channel in which the price is fighting to go higher. It is worth remembering that such a positive breakout from the channel often results in a movement close to the height of the channel itself. In such a situation, we will use the FIb Retracement tool to check potential resistance points, and we can immediately see that the price is currently fighting the first such resistance at $2,241, then we have resistance at $2,566, and interestingly, we can still see a move to the previously mentioned levels after leaving the channel upside, to a very strong resistance zone from $3,028 to $3,601. However, when the exit level of the channel is rejected, we can see a rebound and for this purpose we will check the support areas in a similar way. Here we have a visible support zone from $1,941 to $1,742, and then we have a second zone from $1,575 to $1,410. The CHOP indicator shows that there is still energy for a move, the RSI indicator is again approaching the upper limit with room for the price to go slightly higher, while the STOCH indicator shows a strong breach of the upper limit, which may lead to a price recovery.
by cryptodailyuk
BTC Long-Term 1DChartHello everyone, I invite you to review the situation of BTC in the USDT pair, taking into account the one-day interval. Let's start by defining the downtrend line that has been broken out with a white line, and then we can mark the uptrend line in the same way. Then, using the yellow line, we will determine the upward trend line, which is at a slightly higher level than the trend line itself. Looking at the recent dynamic increases, it is worth checking where the price should resist further increases. And here, after deploying the Fib Retracement tool, we have a clearly visible strong resistance zone from $41,335 to $48,294, which is where the BTC price enters. Only when we manage to get out of this zone and positively test it, should the path towards the previous ATH be opened. at $68,488. At this point, it is also worth checking where the most important support points are in a situation when the market starts to turn and we see a correction. Here you can see possible resistance around $36,000, but much more significant is the strong resistance zone from $37,737 to $28,638, if this zone is broken further we may see equally strong resistance around $25,540. Let us also remember about the EMA Cross 50 and 200 indicator, which, when turned on, allows us to check the position of maintaining a strong upward trend. It is worth observing this indicator, because in a situation where we start a correction, it can help us determine where such a correction will end. Please pay attention to the CHOP index, which indicates that the collected energy is used for growth and there is still some left for possible continuation, on the RSI indicator we are again approaching the upper limit, but when we look at the STOCH indicator, we will immediately see a clearly overheated indicator, which may lead to a price recovery.
by cryptodailyuk
1
BTC/USDT 4H - Will BTC start a bigger correction?Hello everyone, let's take a look at the BTC to USDT chart on a 4-hour time frame. As you can see, the price is moving above the local uptrend line. When we unfold the Fib Retracement grid, we will see a support zone from $38,625 to $37,822, while we still have strong support at $35,614. However, before we start the above-mentioned correction, we can see that the price is above the last resistance and the next strong resistance is at $41,041. Looking at the CHOP indicator, we see that most of the energy has been used, on the RSI indicator, similarly to the STOCH indicator, we are moving at the upper limit, which should translate into a stronger recovery in the coming days.
by cryptodailyuk
XAUUSD(DEMANDS) INSTITUTIONAL ANALYSISXAUUSD(DEMANDS) Unveiling the Dynamics of Gold Prices in 2023 In a year marked by economic fluctuations and global uncertainties, the trajectory of gold prices has been a focal point for investors and analysts alike. As we step into the final quarter of 2023, understanding the nuances of gold's market performance becomes increasingly pivotal. The Current dilemma: Gold Price Update At the outset of the year, gold experienced a surge, reflecting prevalent market apprehensions regarding inflation, geopolitical tensions, and monetary policy shifts across major economies. As of , the price of gold stands at per ounce, showing [Percentage change of 1.76% over the past Higher highs Factors Influencing Gold's Valuation Several key factors continue to influence the dynamics of Gold price 1>Inflation Concerns: Heightened inflation rates have historically correlated with an increase in gold prices, as investors seek safe-haven assets to hedge against currency devaluation. >Geopolitical Unrest: Uncertainties surrounding global geopolitics often drive investors towards gold as a perceived safe investment during turbulent times. >Central Bank Policies: Monetary policy decisions by major central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, continue to impact the valuation of gold, with interest rate changes affecting its attractiveness as an investment. >Market Volatility: Fluctuations in stock markets and the broader financial landscape also play a role in shaping investor sentiment towards gold. Expert Insights and Future Projections >Experts and analysts forecast diverse perspectives on the future of gold prices. Some anticipate a bullish trend, citing ongoing inflation concerns and geopolitical tensions. Others suggest a potential correction in prices as economies stabilize and central banks adjust policies. Implications for Investors and Market Observers For investors and individuals tracking the gold market, understanding these price trends can be crucial for portfolio diversification and risk management strategies. Furthermore, for industries reliant on gold, such as jewelry and technology, price shifts may influence production costs and consumer pricing. Conclusion The gold market remains a barometer of economic uncertainties and investor sentiment, often reflecting broader trends in the global financial landscape. While the current price holds significance, comprehending the multifaceted factors shaping gold's valuation provides a comprehensive perspective crucial for market participants. Note *The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only . Market conditions fluctuate, and past performance is not indicative of future results. XAUUSD BREAKDOWN IN THE NEXT PUBLISH. THANKS Follow for more insights 👍
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ak_capitalist
1
ETC in a pro-growth formation?Hello everyone, I invite you to review the ETC chart in pair with USDT, also on a four-hour interval. Let's start by marking the formation we can see, currently we have one channel created, when a second smaller one is created, it may be the beginning of a pro-growth formation. Next, the white line will mark the local trend line over which we are moving, and the yellow line will mark a downward trend from which the price moved dynamically into a local upward trend. Going further, we can move on to marking support areas when we start a correction. And here we will mark the support zone from $19.55 to $18.12, but if the price breaks out of it, we may see a return to the area of the second zone from $15.78 to $14.11. Looking the other way, we see that the price is fighting in a strong resistance zone from $20.20 to $22, and then we have visible resistance at $24.31. Please look at the CHOP index, which indicates that we have energy for the upcoming move, the RSI indicator shows an upward movement after recovery, which again gives a lot of room for a decline, while the STOCH indicator shows that the upper limit has been exceeded, which causes the growth to slow down and may translate into for the price recovery.
by cryptodailyuk
1
HOW-TO apply an indicator that is only available upon request?Recently, I've realized that my typical day involves constant encounters with indicators. For example, when the alarm clock rings, it's an indicator that it's morning and time to get up. I am checking the phone and once again paying attention to the indicators: battery charge and network signal level. I figure out in just one second that such a complex element of the phone as the battery is 100% charged and the signal from the cell towers is good enough. Then I’m going out on a busy street, and it's only because of the traffic light indicator that I can safely cross the road to reach the parking lot. Looking at the on-board computer of my car, with its many indicators, I know that all the components of this complicated mechanism are working properly, and I can start driving. Now, imagine what would happen if none of this existed. I would have to act blindly, relying on luck: hoping that I would wake up on time, that the phone would work today, that car drivers would let me cross the road, and that my own car would not suddenly stop because it ran out of gas. We can say that indicators help to explain complex processes or phenomena in simple and understandable language. I think they will always be in demand in today's complex world, where we deal with a huge flow of information that cannot be perceived without simplifications. If we talk about the financial market, it's all about constant data, data, data. Add in the element of randomness and everything becomes totally messed up. To create indicators that simplify the analysis of financial information, the TradingView platform uses its own programming language — Pine Script . With this language, you can describe not only unique indicators, but also strategies — meaning algorithms for opening and closing positions. All these tools are grouped together under the term "script" . Just like a trade or educational idea, a script can also be published. After this, it will be available to other users. The published script can be: 1. Visible in the list of community scripts with unrestricted access. Simply find the script by its name and add it to the chart. 2. Visible in the list of community scripts, but access is by invitation only. You'll need to find the script by its name and request access from its author. 3. Not visible in the list of community scripts, but accessible via a link. To add such a script to a chart, you need to have the link. 4. Not visible in the list of community scripts; access is by invitation only. You'll need both a link to the script and permission for access obtained from its author. If you have added to your favorites a script that requires permission from the author, you'll only be able to start using the indicators after the author includes you in the script's user list. Without this, you will get an error message every time you add an indicator to the chart. In this case, contact the author to learn how to gain access. Instructions on how to contact the author are located after the script's description and highlighted within a frame. There you will also find the 'Add to favorite indicators' button. The access can be valid until a certain date or indefinitely. If the author has granted access, you will be able to add the script to the chart.
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by Be_Capy
Quick bitcoin update - Chop Neutrality aheadOverall I am not liking the current trading environment regarding bitcoins price action. I can see the next week start to heat up as we look to break this ascending wedge, but until then I don't really see a reason to try to trade this sideways action. Be patient and the plays will come. Right now is the time to evaluate potential setups in Bitcoin and the overall ALTcoin market, I will be posting my thoughts as the week goes on. This next week could be pivotal for the market so make sure to set alerts At the specified price targets listed. Price Areas I am watching out for. A dip below the diagonal at $36,572- $37,451. A break above the horizontal Fib level .382 at $38,104 Set alerts for both of these areas. A break below likely means a decline on the way pre-Christmas, a break above and I think our next targets will quickly be broken. Be aware though as it is the holiday season we may see some price decline as people withdraw gains to pay for gifts and vacations, on the other hand, the holidays generally mean people bragging to their family about gains. So this could lead to a post-Christmas pump fairly easily as new capital floods the market. For more information feel free to ask!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Helios_Capital_Investment
1
Gold's sharp rise at the start of the weekMonday 27 November 2023, Asian session, gold rose significantly until it touched 2018, making an increase of +$16 from the open price. after October prices failed to break above 2000. This early week we traded gold above 2000 (last time in May). It is not surprising that the movement of gold was predicted last week, when US data was not strong enough to strengthen DXY and 10YT. Traders is showing a response to the Fed's future policy direction to end the cycle of increasing interest rates and start easing next year. a weaker USD makes gold cheaper against currencies. We can call this week FOMC week because starting today (Tuesday) many Fed officials will provide statements regarding macroeconomic conditions. On the other hand, this week there will also be the release of GDP and PCE data as a benchmark for the rate of inflation. Of course, this week will be volatile week because there are unwritten data (Fed Statement) and release of written data that is needed to analyze prices. IMO, there is room for consolidation that needs to be considered, including 2016, 2009, 2005, and the psychological number 2000. if failed break above 2016 we will see the possibility that price will consolidate or retrace to that key level. if pass 2016 there is 2020 or 2030 as nearest resistance.
FXOPEN:XAUUSD
by yongkypurnomo
Oil Market Outlook Week #48 - Time to Trade the range ?Oil Market Outlook & USOIL Breakdown - Week #48 The Oil market after rejecting the end of Q3 2023 Highs around the 90 to 95$ range has suffered in the fourth quarter of the year. The price of USOIL mimicking the one of the Western Texas Intermediate has closed week 47 with a price of $75.13. Here is a brief breakdown of the recent fundamental changes & news that affected he market and their reflections in the price action seen on the daily graph. 1. Under-supply zone The strong rejection seen in the month of October is synonym of prices that offer high incentives to both the extraction and refining industries that compose the supply-chain of petroleum products, these prices stimulate these physical assets to be run at full capacity as to minimize the ratio of variable costs to revenues generated. Additionally, the spreads with alternative energy sources are contracted enough to enable for discretionary blending to be seen in alternative fuels industries, discretionary blending is the portion of the industry that blends and refines bio fuels only when its product can be sold competitively in the market versus traditional energy sources such as oil of course. Moreover the inverse structure that was present in the Brent market signaling a lack of stocks at hand of crude brent oil was brought back to a quasi flat curve by substitution of Brent with American oil as reflected in the convergence between the two front months in Brent (coming from an inverse to flat) and in WTI futures (coming from a carry to flat). 2. Strong Technical Signal October was also particularly important in terms of fundamentals in the market. Sentiment improved drastically as OPEC even amid the war in the middle-east is seemingly unable to effectively manipulate oil prices by way of cutting supply, very similarly to how Central banks drive economic policy by cutting or raising Interest rates. This sentiment is clearly reflected in the price action as we see a fast triple cross in the daily EMAs (10; 20; 100) indicating a strong trend reversal. 3. Failed OPEC meeting on supply cuts During the month of November OPEC was bound to meet to announce new supply cuts. However, this meeting never materialized, in fact it was completely cancelled, and no new supply cuts were announced. Market talks indicate that the middle-east region is maintaining current supply of oil to accumulate cash flow and further buy sovereign debt in the international markets amid worldwide geopolitical concerns. This strong fundamental signal was perceived strongly by the market where investors pushed the price lower, breaking and consolidating below the $80 per barrel zone. An important technical and fundamental victory for the bears. MARKET OUTLOOK WEEK 48 4. Technical support & price discovery level Positioning in the market will be key moving forward towards the end of the year. The 72 to 68 $ range is an important technical support were demand for oil and paper products such as OTC forward contracts on oil deliveries are quite popular and offer an important level of price testing. The approach the price action will have to this range in my opinion will be key to understanding the orderflow and sentiment driving the market. From this range we will understand if the market is bound to range between the 80-85$ and 60-70$ range, in such case our approach to the market will be considerably different than if the market decides to push lower to test sanction’s price levels around the 60-65$ zone. 5. OPEC oversupply & Strong Western Demand In fact the 60$ mark represent a very important oversupply zone for OPEC+ that would be obliged to further cut its supply of oil to preserve its main industry’s margins and at the same time it represents an extremely high demand zone from the EU specifically but also the US as it is the level at which Black sea and Russian oil is admissible for trade in the West, given the winter approaching it would also be the level at which western countries would decide to stock up for the season. In order to understand that a study of the futures curve would be appropriate. MARKET APPROACH We would approach the markets only in the eventuality of non-extreme volatility move, the extreme volatility move clearly potentially happening to the downside does not represent a sensible trade opportunity for us as entering and exiting such trade at the correct time would be extremely difficult in a market that below $70 could enter an extreme demand zone that would immediately push the prices higher again and further contribute to volatility. On the other hand, in the eventuality of further news from OPEC intentions to cut supply, stocks drawdown potential or China’s economy ramping up production could lead the price to be bound in this 70 to 85 dollar range as illustrated by the top two potential scenarios drawn on the graph. Given logical price action following some fundamental scenario, and combined with candlesticks patterns to optimize entries we could be looking at two potential trades within the range. - Short position @ 79.5 with stoploss above 83.75$ with a price target near 71$ offering a larger than 1:2 risk-to-reward ratio - Long position entered in the range 70-71.5$ with price target 79.5 with stoploss around 66.5$ offering a higher than 1:2 risk-to-reward ratio Dear all, I would like to remind you that this is not a financial advice in any way shape or form. It is my opinion and my opinion only published to entertainment and educational purposes. I hope this market analysis was helpful to you if so please consider subscribing I would like to start livestreaming soon on this platform. Thank you
TVC:USOIL
by Lorenzo13
Detailed analysis of BTC price and halvings since its inceptionHello everyone, I would like to present what repeatability can be determined in more detail by analyzing the BTC chart, taking into account the 3 halvings we experienced and the fourth which lies ahead. We have a log BTC chart from 2011 to today in front of us. We will start by designating the places where BTC has done its halving, as you can see, the first halving took place in November 2012, the second halving in June 2016, the third halving in May 2020, and we also mark the halving which should be in April 2024 . On the other hand, we mark the middle between the halves with white lines. We will use a green box to mark the gaps between the edible and the other half so that we can see this space and repetition more clearly. For the analysis, we will use the blue lines which represent the way btc moves, one line indicates the lowest price points, and we can see that btc touches the line repeatedly, and in the same way we can mark the places where price has reached its ATH. It is worth noting that with the first halving, btc fell by about 86% from its ATH on the second halving he was down about 84% from his ATH with a 3 fold reduction, the decrease from ATH so far is about 74%. The current low is 74% where the blue line is, but BTC sometimes has a quick dip in the candlestick which could be around 82% from the ATH. Given the repeatability between halves, the current maximum opening should be around $ 10,500, however, here we have confirmation of the low at $15,200, which gives a decline of 78%. Now we use the mean measure tool marked with the purple line and we can see that every time we cut it in half, as the average goes through half the period to half, the cane consolidates and then the price drops below our purple line. Moving on, we also see that after each drop below average around the half of the halving, the price started to rebound and break the first trend denoted by the white line as well as exiting the yellow area, then breaking the second trend and exiting the second yellow area. Thus, breaking the first trend is a pro-growth period, and breaking the second trend is a pro-growth period followed by price increases. Currently, we have not yet broken the first trend, given the cyclical nature of btc and the fact that large capital is distributed similarly and often all negative news is already included in the price, we can assume that the situation will repeat itself. After breaking the second trend and breaking above the average, the price will start rising again. Finally, we present a visualization of how the btc price may possibly move to the next halving in the coming time, we mark the path that the price may follow with a white line. Based on available data, we know that the difference between ATH is approximately 6.25 times in each cycle. However, the percentage increase from trough to peak in each subsequent cycle decreases by almost 6 times. Taking into account all the data, we can predict that in the current cycle the BTC price could reach a level ranging from $70,000 to $99,000, which is marked with the blue zone on the chart. However, as it is already widely known, work on an ETF for BTC is underway, a positive decision to issue such an ETF could completely change the market and take it to new levels. And taking into account the first gold ETF that gave a price increase of 10X, in a similar situation the BTC price could increase to huge levels in the orange zone to the levels of $ 170,000 - $ 225,000. However, the BTC ETF can also be a threat, when it is rejected it can have a very negative impact on the entire market. Please remember that these are not investment recommendations, everyone is responsible for their financial games, these are just our observations about the market and how the price moves.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by cryptodailyuk
ADA perspective for short - med termThis is not a signal to buy/sell. NFA We see the price nowdays are way harder than usual to analyze, "big boys" wont be easy because of sentiment #etf and #halving2024. They'll and still manipulating the price because they wanna control it. Dont be fanatic or being bullboy, this price has been abnormal hiking without any healthy correction. Better to stay away and dont be FOMO! Or those "big boys" just laughing and enjoying your money. Good luck, Smart Trader!
by Kurozcrypto
2023The chart you see is the EURUSD but this post isn't just about euro but it will be a key player coming into next yr. It's been a year of CB's but where do we head next? BOE raising rates 3.5%, with the split vote as we head into 2023 expect a large recession going forward as all CB's have raised rates they are hiking a little bit too much and yes they will have to cut as we head into the recession but hiking could actually be a mistake but we obviously don't control what CB's will do and CPI is declining 11.1% it dropped to 10.7% cost of petrol, tobacco etc Food prices are rising. It is a great amount 10% core inflation isn't excelling it's still at those areas. Raising rates, it takes time to come into transition. Now don't forget we've got strikes such as rail strikes, it isn't busy with retail sales aren't excelling people can't get into these stores and less people are spending. FOMC: Raising rates 0.25% keep rates higher 2023 5.1% expectation of rate. Very hawkish, headline inflation 7.1% lowering CPI. These rate hikes are working. The market rallied S&P, it declined. Rate hikes are pacing themselves, we could even get cuts mid next year stop hiking rates, recession. It will take more evidence for inflation is on downward path, in reality it is declining. Perhaps its due to core inflation. The dot plot was the main move. It's 4.5%, they want 5.1%. No cuts in 2023, that's the questionable bit as well. Now market did rally before thinking there would be cut sooner 2023 well the dot plot differs in that view. 17 out 19 for 5.1% members. Last 3 months it has raised. That's interesting. Labour market jobs available and working 3.5 million it is very tight. When going into recession there's cost cutting, further reduction of employees = Recession. Job cuts are here tech sector, finance sector etc. Wages stay high, no demand disruption. May sustain high inflation. The need keeping rates higher for longer, extending the demand disruptions. Hiring was very difficult in first place, are workers going to extend the cut of workers? Time will tell. ECB hiked as all CB's are. Anybody who thinks this is a pivot, is wrong. 50 basis point hikes pace for period of time EU indices fell. Very hawkish. They are lagging compared to other CB's, current rate 2.5%. Now bare in mind they do have to think of other countries but they are behind compared to others, the large bear move came. Quantitative tightening in May extends. We had CPI's, we've had of this year CB's. Year ends all CB's hawkish. The markets SPX and other EUR indices rallying but it hasn't happened the Grinch came out, you can see in my previous posts I wasn't confident at all we could head higher especially SPX this can be seen through previous posts. I expect this to continue. Don't forget you got China think about as well reopening, it's interesting time there. Overall regarding the market, we already see housing having issues, there's another country that has my key interest it's Mexico, will manufacturing move further away from China and head a little to Mexico? USDMXN interesting FX pair I am going to keep an eye on for next year. Regarding market overall, I am bearish DXY for the next 6 months in my humble opinion . I feel shorter term, for sure a pull back but I think longer term: GBP we could hit back to 1.30/1.35 areas, EUR 1.15/1.20, XAG 30-35, keep an eye on other euro minor pairs could extend further a lot more in gains than others and yes I will even mention crypto 8-10k Bitcoin seems a good support area! If we technically stay above those areas, could be a good time to buy but that market overall has a lot of reinforcement to make regarding the regulations. The market doesn't go in straight line that's where technicals come in. Last year I expected we get higher DXY - we achieved that but this time I'm on the flip side...embrace yourself for recession. Happy Holidays & Get ready to smash 2023. Trade Journal Financial Trader | Empowering Your Trading Journey Disclaimer: Not Investment Advice Or Signal Provider
by Trade_Journal
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