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Fundamental-analysis

The Start of the US Recession is NearCurrent economic, fundamental, and now technical data suggest that we are potentially nearing the start of the US Recession. Here are the technical factors that suggests the recession may have already begun⤵️ On the 1W chart, Price has rejected the $4.8k key resistance level on the 1D chart, the price is overbought and the RSI is indicating a bearish divergence And lastly, our momentum indicators have all turned bearish today, indicating that the downtrend has officially started, from a technical POV.
SP:SPXShort
by AlgoAlpha
1
BTC Long-Term Hello everyone, I invite you to check the long-term view of the situation of BTC in pair with USDT. For this purpose, we will start by defining the main downward trend line using the yellow line, from which the price, after going up, began to create the current upward trend channel marked in blue. Going further, using the Fib Retracement grid, which should be spread from the last price peak to the bottom, we will determine a very strong resistance at $48,634 at 0.618 Fib, the so-called golden Fibon point, at which the price had a pre-halving correction in previous cycles. Further, taking into account the latest local movement, we will spread the trend based fib extension grid, thanks to which we can expand the resistance to the resistance zone from $46,729 to $48,634. This is a zone with very strong resistance on the way to the new ATH. Looking the other way, you should determine the support points when the price starts to recover, similarly here, from the price bottom, we will spread the Fib Retracement grid and determine the support at the level of $34,566, and the second one at the level of $27,297. At this point, taking into account the recent increase, we will again unfold the fib retracement grid, thanks to which we can see additional support at the level of $37,990, and the support lower can be extended to the support zone from $34,566 to $33,092. Please look at the RSI indicator, which shows that there is a lot of room for further price recovery, and if we look at the STOCH indicator, it also shows room for recovery.
by cryptodailyuk
EUR/USD Long Against The RetailersLast week the dollar was mostly weak with DXY currently sitting at the 101 area and is about to test the key 100 level most likely after last week's much worse-than-expected Chicago PMI which came at 46.9 versus the expected 51 which was already far lower than the previous 55.8 and now sliding in the below 50 contraction zone. Another negative for the dollar could be the U.S. Navy killing Houthi Rebels in Red Sea. Last week was quiet for the Euro with no economic release so we are left with the overall expectation that the ECB is trying to look hawkish pushing back on cutting rates soon. - This week Tuesday 16:15 we have Euro Manufacturing’s PMIs in Spain, Italy, France, Germany, and the Eurozone which are mostly expected to stay around the previous levels which are still well below the key 50 level for the indicator. - Also Tuesday we have a 1st tier US Manufacturing PMI which is expected to drop from 49.4 to 48.2 but after the sharp decline in last week’s Chicago one, a surprise to the downside can be expected which will weigh on the dollar further. We have an extremely Bearish DXM paired with Institutional traders favouring the euro combined with the 5 year seasonality being slightly bearish sitting at -0.69% but the 10-year one being at positive 0.14% so seasonality can be considered neutral for our potential trade. Potential entry at 0.50 Fib retracement level on the 4H which is also a Big psychological level being at 1.10 area with 0.5R and another 0.5R after a bullish engulfing candle. SL on the first potential entry will be at 1.09240 which is around 88pips which is more than the ATR average at this zone for the whole of 2023 Daily chart.
Long
by Elite_Forex
4
How Fed policy impact sharp movements in Forex pairsIn the second installment of my series on trading FOREX currency pairs, I emphasize the significance of adopting a macro view and comprehending central bank policies for achieving consistent profits in forex trading. For those new to trading, I suggest revisiting my first post where I delve into the significance of analyzing interest rate differentials for your initial trading idea. It's advisable to steer clear of trading signals provided by educators or social media traders that lack explanations and do not share a verified P&L, or lack a proven track record of consistent profitable trades by withholding their brokers statement. If you're aiming to incur losses in your trading journey, then feel free to join those who request payment for sketching lines on charts and label them as trading signals Today, let's explore the influence of Federal Reserve speakers on potentially reversing EURUSD trends within the context of the broader macroeconomic landscape. By focusing on what Fed speakers communicate and acting on those, rather than relying on technical indicators, one could have achieved a very respectable 100% (even +600%) gain in their trading account, despite the modest 4.88% rise in EURUSD throughout the entire year! In Summary the 2023 macroeconomics landscape, Eurozone: • Economic Growth: The Eurozone economy experienced a slowdown in 2023 due to the war in Ukraine, the energy crisis, and rising inflation. However, growth remained positive, surpassing initial expectations. • Inflation: Inflation surged in the Eurozone in 2023, fueled by energy costs and supply chain disruptions. The ECB embarked on a gradual tightening of monetary policy, raising interest rates for the first time in over a decade. • Geopolitical Risk: The war in Ukraine significantly impacted the Eurozone, raising concerns about energy security and economic stability. • Political Developments: Political uncertainty in Italy and other Eurozone countries could have weighed on the Euro at times. United States: • Economic Growth: The US economy was comparatively strong in 2023, although growth moderated compared to the previous year. • Inflation: Inflation also rose in the US, prompting the Federal Reserve to embark on a more aggressive tightening cycle, raising interest rates significantly faster than the ECB. • Monetary Policy Divergence: The differing pace of monetary policy tightening between the ECB and the Fed created a major headwind for the Euro, strengthening the US Dollar. • Trade Tensions: US-China trade tensions continued to simmer throughout 2023, adding to global uncertainty and potentially favoring the USD as a safe haven currency. Mapping out the occurrences of currency-moving statements by Fed speakers along a timeline reveals their substantial influence compared to any technical analysis or chart data. By acting on Fed speak, one could substantially reduce their losses or increase their profits by creating very specific Fed trades 1. 2nd Feb FOMC Meeting: Fed maintains rates, but hints at future hikes 2. 15th March Powell speech: Emphasizes commitment to fighting inflation 3. 3rd May FOMC Meeting: Fed raises rates by 50 bps, signals faster tightening 4. 8th June Powell speech: Warns of potential recession risks 5. 25th July FOMC Meeting: Fed raises rates by 75 bps, strongest hike in decades 6. 20th Sept FOMC Meeting: Fed raises rates by 50 bps, reiterates commitment to fighting inflation 7. 2nd Nov FOMC Meeting: Fed slows pace of hikes to 25 bps, acknowledges economic slowdown 8. 14th Dec Powell speech: Indicates a Fed pivot Make sure you plan your trades in accordance with the following FOMC meetings in 2024 January 30-31 March 19-20* Apr/May 30-1 June 11-12* July 30-31 September 17-18* November 6-7 December 17-18* * Represents a summary of economic projections - ie market movers Good luck traders and here's to a triple digit account gain in 2024.
by Macro-Traders-Strategies
6
DHANUKA: A good upmove LIKELY!DHANUKA is an Agro-Chemical Manufacturing Company. The chart is a Weekly Timeframe analysis of Dhanuka. We can see some good technical analysis points. 1. We can see a good support of 200 Moving average in Weekly Timeframe. 2. We can notice a Fakeout move in Dhanuka. 3. Dhanuka has broken its resistance trendline too and is consolidating above it. There is some other reason of selecting this stock too. Fundamentals of Dhanuka are good. 1. Profits rising every year 2. A debt free company 3. Presence of FIIs and DIIs, with public decreasing 4. A fundamental score of 6 on 9, which is good on fundamentals. 5. Stock P/E is 16, and its median PE is 18. So, there is an opportunity. 6. Analyst rating is BUY for a TARGET of Rs 900/- If you go through the investments of FIIs, they started investing in September 2021 quarter. Since September, the price of Dhanuka has been in a downward consolidation and FIIs are still sitting in it without any returns. But they might have seen some good opportunity in Dhanuka and are still invested. Now, there is a breakout in Weekly timeframe, and the stock is consolidating above above its horizontal resistance zone. We can see a good upmove in coming weeks in DHANUKA
NSE:DHANUKALong
by NikunjBangad
3 (bullish) ideas for $TRAC (BRC20)Narrative: CRYPTOCAP:BTC BTC and the BRC-20 tokens are taking a little breather, which is certainly good for the market in the medium term. I'm particularly bullish on LSE:TRAC , a project that sits at an MC of just under 100 million and for which I believe a 10x is within the realm of possibility. These 3 bullish ideas come to mind - accumulation at $4 and at $5 (green zones), TP from $7 (red). Of course, things can turn out completely differently. Do not forget that the crypto market in general and the new protocols on BTC such as Ordinals, Stamps, PIPE, etc. in particular are subject to huge volatility and any project can go to 0 at any time. HIGH RISK! NFA.
by NonComposMentis
#FUN/USDT#FUN The price has broken the rising resistance line. He tested it again on a frame for several days. The resistance line has always been very strong but now it will act as support after breaking it again. Bearish triangle patterns on every breakout to the upside and currently the big bearish triangle will break out. The current entry areas are at the current support areas 0.0043. It is expected to rise to areas 0. 011 meaning an expected rate of 120%.
Long
by CryptoAnalystSignal
3
Bajaj Finance - Management Quality & Economic MoatNSE:BAJFINANCE Bajaj Finance Ltd, one of India's largest and most diversified Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs), has exhibited robust management quality and developed a significant economic moat in the financial services sector. Management Quality: Strategic Growth: Bajaj Finance Ltd has shown a consistent focus on strategic growth and resilience, particularly evident during the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite the disruptions caused by the pandemic, the company maintained a nuanced strategy on acquisition and underwriting across its businesses. This adaptability reflects strong managerial foresight and capability. Financial Performance: In FY2022, Bajaj Finance recorded a 29% growth in assets under management (AUM) and a 59% growth in profit after tax on a consolidated basis. The company managed to achieve this impressive growth despite disruptions in business and elevated credit costs. Capital Adequacy and Risk Management: Bajaj Finance remains well-capitalized with a capital-to-risk weighted asset ratio (CRAR) of 27.22% as of March 31, 2022. This is among the best for large NBFCs in India. The company's robust risk management practices have resulted in a strong portfolio quality, with Gross NPA at 1.60% and Net NPA at 0.68%, among the lowest in the industry. Operational Efficiency: The company's operational efficiency is highlighted by its diverse customer base, digital transformation, and omnichannel strategy. This approach has enhanced customer experience and contributed to business growth. Economic Moat: Market Position and Sectoral Importance: As an NBFC, Bajaj Finance has become an integral part of India's financial sector. Its assets, worth more than ₹54 lakh crore as of March 31, 2021, constitute about 25% of the balance sheet size of the banking sector. Rapid Asset Growth: Over the last five years, NBFCs' assets have grown at a cumulative average growth rate of 17.9%, with Bajaj Finance being a key contributor. Customer Expansion: Bajaj Finance's customer franchise grew significantly, adding 2.21 million new customers in Q4FY22 alone. This growth in customer base is a testament to the company's strong market penetration and customer retention strategies. Diversification and Innovation: The company has diversified its product offerings and continued to innovate, leveraging its understanding of regional dynamics and customer preferences. This diversification has enabled it to tap into various market segments effectively. Strengths and Weaknesses: Strengths: High growth rates anticipated by analysts in the coming years. High profitability due to outperforming net margins. Frequent upward revisions of sales forecasts. Strong analyst recommendations and upwardly revised price targets. Weaknesses: High valuations in earnings multiples. High valuation levels compared to the size of its balance sheet. Limited generosity in shareholder compensation. Conclusion In summary, Bajaj Finance Ltd demonstrates strong management quality characterized by strategic growth initiatives, robust financial performance, and effective risk management. Its economic moat is underpinned by its significant market position, rapid asset growth, customer expansion, and product diversification. The company's strengths in maintaining high profitability and adapting to market changes are counterbalanced by concerns about its high valuation levels and shareholder compensation policies.
NSE:BAJFINANCELong
by amitlall_79
Oberoi Realty Ltd. - Management Quality and Economic Moat About NSE:OBEROIRLTY Oberoi Realty Ltd, a prominent real estate development company in India, has demonstrated a high level of management quality and has established a significant economic moat in its sector. Management Quality: Strategic Growth and Diversification: Oberoi Realty has strategically focused on developing a diverse range of real estate projects, including residential, commercial, hospitality, and retail segments. This diversification helps in mitigating market volatility and caters to a wide range of customer needs. Financial Performance: The company has shown strong financial performance, with sales volume increasing by 104% year-on-year, driven by new project launches. For instance, the launch of Elysian Tower B in Goregaon significantly boosted sales. Operational Efficiency: Oberoi Realty's operational efficiency is highlighted by its effective management of key projects and steady growth in various segments, including hospitality and commercial developments. Economic Moat: Market Position and Brand Recognition: Oberoi Realty is well-recognized for its premium projects and has established a strong brand in the real estate sector, especially in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR). This brand recognition contributes to its competitive advantage and customer loyalty. Project Portfolio: The company's diverse project portfolio, including key residential projects like Exquisite by Oberoi Realty, Esquire by Oberoi Realty, and commercial projects like Oberoi Chambers, strengthens its market position and offers steady revenue streams. Strong Sales and Development Pipeline: The company's ability to maintain a robust pipeline of ongoing and upcoming projects, such as the anticipated launch in Thane and subsequent phases in Borivali/Goregaon, positions it well for future growth. Strengths and Weaknesses: Strengths: Strong operating performance with a focus on high-value projects. A diverse range of ongoing projects, contributing to a stable growth outlook. Positive outlook due to strong demand in upcoming projects and a robust brand value. Weaknesses: The challenge of increasing trade receivables, indicating potential issues in cash flow management. Exposure to stringent rules and regulations in the Indian real estate sector, which can impact operational flexibility. Conclusion In summary, Oberoi Realty Ltd's management quality is characterized by its strategic focus on diversified real estate development, robust financial performance, and efficient project management. The company's economic moat is reinforced by its strong market position, brand recognition, and diverse project portfolio. While the company has notable strengths in its operational performance and project pipeline, it needs to manage its trade receivables effectively and navigate the regulatory landscape efficiently.
NSE:OBEROIRLTYLong
by amitlall_79
How Short rates affect EURUSDThis excerpt is part of a larger blog post where I'll delve into my 2024 trading strategy and explain the rationale behind my trades. For those new to trading, early career decisions play a pivotal role in shaping one's trading trajectory, significantly impacting both profitability and mental ability to continue trading over the years. The two choices are clear: 1. Follow trade signals devoid of explanations, endorsed by traders concealing their identity, background and their P&L data. These traders may excel at marketing on social channels but might be grappling with substantial losses or in most cases lack proof of making consistent profitable trades in their short careers. They often will have conflict of interest arrangements with brokers, encouraging frequent trading leading to unnecessary losses. OR 2. Grasp the art of consistently making trades by understanding fundamental drivers. This involves being discerning about trades based on volatility parameters that have a higher probability of profit. If option 1 resonates with you, then it's time to redirect your attention to the myriad of 'Educators' who, despite lacking real trading experience, are eager to part you from your hard-earned cash. Always demand a verified P&L link (not screen shots) and observe their response. For those opting for option 2 , this marks the commencement of a series of blog posts interpreting endogenous and exogenous factors that influence forex pairs and how to capitalize on them. Background. When I formulate a trade idea, my first task is to gauge the purchasing power of a currency. This involves analyzing an extensive set of historical indicators like PMIs, NMIs, CC, building permits, etc. The resulting scorecard, based on historical values, aids in determining whether a currency is gaining or losing purchasing power. Comparing this exercise across other G10FX currencies provides the foundation for my trade. I can identify which currency has a short bias, which has a long bias, and the specific pair I am confident in shorting or going long. All this occurs before delving into volatility parameters (which we'll explore in a future post). When a future data is released, the movement in the pair is either confirming or contradicting the trade idea, the trade idea is still valid but maybe it doesn't have as much margin of safety as first thought. In this blog, I'll delve into one key statistical driver— the short-term interest rate differentials. While crucial, it's not the sole determinant of EURUSD movement. Last month, Jay Powell's Fed hinted at considering three rate cuts in 2024. This decision stems from the U.S. economy's accelerated path to disinflation. Powell, having waited for inflation since 2018 and taking no action in 2021 & 2022, aims to prevent the economy from slipping into deflation. Simply put, disinflation benefits equities and the economy, but deflation is detrimental to jobs and the stock market. Meanwhile, the ECB has adopted a cautious "wait and see" approach, despite its economy teetering on the brink of deflation and a slowing trajectory that may raise concerns later on. The ECB is keen to avoid replicating the error made by Jean-Claude Trichet, who acted hastily in 2012, leading to the collapse of several Greek and Italian banks and triggering a 14-year period of Euro instability. Notably, the ECB operates under a single mandate, distinguishing itself from the Federal Reserve, which manages two mandates. Currently, the ECB has communicated no intention to engage in rate cuts, opting to maintain higher rates until the data supports such a shift, particularly if inflation consistently remains below the 2% threshold. Given the current scenario, we work with the available information. According to the latest dot plots, the Federal Reserve anticipates three rate cuts, while market sentiment hints at eight cuts in 2024, not all of which have been fully factored in yet. Comparing the current interest rates: Federal Reserve: Current: 5.500% Priced in (10-year): 3.8% (1.7%) European Central Bank: Current: 4.500% Priced in (10-year): 2% (2.5%) The existing interest rate differential is expected to continue narrowing towards 0.8%, propelling the EURUSD higher to around 1.20-1.23 by year-end as new data confirms the U.S. trajectory toward disinflation. While this ascent may not follow a linear path, periodic reevaluation of the trade (around 1.15-1.17) will be necessary as quarterly data is released. There's potential for an accelerated upward movement on EURUSD, reminiscent of the 2017-2018 surge from 1.05 to 1.25. With the trade idea now taking shape, the focus shifts to volatility parameters. These factors will dictate trade size, determine permissible drawdown levels before exiting, and guide decisions regarding necessary hedges. Details on these considerations will be explored in future posts. For full transparency, my P&L (+700%) is readily available on my profile page, along with information on my community. Wishing fellow traders a successful hunt and a happy new year.
TVC:DE02YLong
by Macro-Traders-Strategies
1
MATIC/USDT 1DInterval ChartHello everyone, I invite you to review the MATIC chart on a one-day time frame. Let's start by identifying the downward trend using the yellow line, which shows that the price has gone up and is currently struggling to stay above it. Let's start by marking support places for the price and we can see that the first support is at $0.86, but if the price drops lower, we have the next support at $0.72, and then the next support at $0.62. Looking the other way, we can similarly determine the resistance areas that the price must face. And here we see that currently the price has been rejected by the resistance at $1.15, but if we manage to overcome it, we will move towards the resistance zone from $1.34 to $1.57. When we turn on ema cross 50 and 200, we will see the place where the indicator confirmed the return to a strong upward trend. The CHOP index indicates that there is still some energy left for movement. The RSI indicator shows that we have returned to the place where there was a previous rebound, while the STOCH indicator has exceeded the upper limit, which resulted in a slowdown in growth and may result in a price recovery.
M
by cryptodailyuk