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SPX & ETH: Market Manipulation or Final Pump Before Dump?Just as the market shows a strong move up — with SPX hitting 0.5169 and ETH reclaiming 1813 — we receive breaking news: 🇨🇳 China will impose an additional 34% tariff on U.S. goods. Combined with upcoming key events — Non-Farm Payrolls , Unemployment Rate , and Powell's Speech — this could trigger a dramatic shift in sentiment. Technical clues: • SPX drops sharply after touching the upper Bollinger Band; • ETH also rejects resistance; • RSI overheated (above 66); • Weak institutional demand (Coinbase Premium barely positive); • Selling pressure increasing with higher volume. Conclusion: I’m staying out for now. This move could be a trap — a setup to lure in retail buyers before major volatility. Better safe than sorry. Patience > FOMO.
BINANCE:ETHUSD
by RobertAIss
SPX + ETH — Pre-NFP Pullback or Trap?Both SPX and ETH showed a strong rally, but now we’re seeing early signs of rejection: • SPX dropped sharply from 0.5169 to 0.4861 (≈ -6%), printing a bearish candle at the top of the Bollinger band. • ETH follows with a rejection near the upper band too. • RSI on both charts was above 57 — momentum was hot, but likely overextended. • Coinbase Premium still barely positive at +2.78 — no strong institutional demand behind the rally. • Volumes on the sell candle spike — smart money unloading? Timing matters: All this happens just 2 hours before major economic data (NFP + Unemployment) and a Fed speech. My View: This smells like a setup to trap late buyers. No long positions until after the news drops. I’d rather miss a few % than get caught in algo-driven volatility. Protect capital first. Patience wins.
BINANCE:ETHUSD
by RobertAIss
ETH Market Check – April 4, 2025Let’s take a closer look at Ethereum (ETH) – not just following SPX, but showing some of its own behavior lately. 1. Structure & Indicators - ETH is currently retesting the 200 EMA zone on the 1h chart, and candles are starting to flatten near resistance (around 1833–1835). - RSI is at 56–57 and losing momentum, approaching overbought on low volume. - Coinbase Premium is still negative (-36 earlier, now -21), meaning institutional buying pressure is not behind this move – it’s likely retail-driven . - Bollinger Bands show price hugging the upper band, often a signal of a temporary stretch. 2. Volume Analysis - Volume on the move up was decent but fading . - No strong spikes that would suggest big buyers stepping in. It looks more like shorts covering and FOMO buying. 3. Divergence Risk - We’re seeing early signs of bearish divergence on RSI vs price – ETH pushing up while RSI is not following with strength. - This usually signals weakness in continuation , especially near key resistance zones. 4. News & Macro Correlation - ETH will likely react sharply to today’s NFP data and Powell’s speech, even if it’s crypto – macro still rules. - If SPX dumps, ETH will follow , especially with its current weak spot structure. My View: ETH is not showing organic strength . This climb seems forced and light , with clear signs of hesitation. Unless we get positive macro surprise , I expect ETH to either: - stall at current levels and chop sideways - or pull back fast toward 1795 / 1755 zone So I’m not entering longs here. Watching for rejection confirmation and possibly a short setup if conditions align after the news.
BINANCE:ETHUSDShort
by RobertAIss
Skeptic | Gold Gears Up: Battle Between 3075.66 & 3128Welcome back, guys! 👋 I'm Skeptic. Today, we're diving deep into XAU/USD (Gold) , breaking down the current structure and upcoming trade opportunities. 🔍 📊 Daily Structure: The major trend remains bullish , with Gold showing strong upward momentum. If you've been following my previous breakdowns, you’ll remember I gave long triggers at 2955.31 , 3004.48 , and recently 3057.26 —all of which have played out well. Even if you entered based on your own signals in line with the trend, you should be sitting comfortably in profit. 🕒 1H Structure – What’s Next? After that strong uptrend, Gold has entered a correction phase on the 1H chart. 📰 News Impact: The recent announcement from President Trump imposing sweeping tariffs (10% baseline and up to 54% on China) has created major volatility across markets, including Gold. This geopolitical tension has added momentum to the asset, and we’re seeing it clearly on the chart. 📈 Bullish Scenario (Long Setup): • Trigger: Break & close above 3128 • Since this aligns with the trend, larger targets and longer hold times are justified. 📉 Bearish Scenario (Short Setup): • Trigger: Break & hold below 3075.66 • Manage risk carefully here—use tighter stop-losses and secure profits quickly since this is counter-trend. ⚠️ Key Notes: 🔹 Fundamentals: Heavy economic news flow today = High volatility expected. 🔹 Risk Management: Don’t overleverage. Only enter on confirmed breaks. Stay skeptical, trade smart, and I’ll catch you in the next analysis! 👽📈
FXOPEN:XAUUSD
by SkepticWise
1
Gold/Silver Ratio Nears 100: What Does It Mean Historically?The Gold/Silver ratio is on the verge of reaching 100, an extremely rare level seen only at key historical turning points. The chart includes a 2,500-week linear regression channel, which shows that over the very long term, the ratio has been steadily rising, though at a slow pace. Occasionally, the ratio touches the 1.5 standard deviation line, and in rare, game-changing events, and sometimes it even breaks beyond that level. Here are some of the key historical turning points marked by major spikes in the Gold/Silver ratio: 1- Early 1990s: The collapse of the Soviet Union, the Gulf War, and a U.S. recession pushed the ratio to 106. It remained above 1.5 standard deviations for more than two years. 2- 2002: Following the dot-com bubble burst, the 9/11 attacks, and the Iraq War, the ratio climbed to 82.6, nearing the 1.5 deviation line. 3- 2008 Recession: The global financial crisis triggered by the collapse of Lehman Brothers sent the ratio to 88.50. This spike sparked a major rally in both gold and silver, lasting until 2011 when the ratio reached one of its deepest bottoms. 4- 2019: The U.S.–China trade war under Trump’s first term pushed the ratio to 93, again nearing the 1.5 deviation threshold. 5- 2020 (COVID-19 Shock): The pandemic caused one of the biggest disruptions in modern economic history. Although relatively short-lived, its impacts were severe. The Gold/Silver ratio surged to 126 , marking the highest level in modern records, possibly the highest in all of history. 6- 2024–2025 (Global Trade War?): With the U.S. imposing major tariffs on key global trading partners, this could be another historic inflection point. The full impact is still unfolding, but risks of a serious global slowdown, or even a deep recession are rising. A full-scale trade war remains a real possibility. Now, the Gold/Silver ratio is approaching 100 and nearing the 1.5 standard deviation line. It remains unclear whether this represents a powerful pair trade opportunity—"sell gold, buy silver"—or a structural breakout where the ratio stays elevated for an extended period. In either case market is showing that this is one of the rare turning point of global economy.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by ftdsystem
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) 4H Chart Analysis – Professional BreakdownBitcoin (BTC/USD) 4H Chart – Detailed Professional Analysis This chart presents a Rectangle Pattern, a common consolidation structure in technical analysis. The price has been oscillating between a well-defined resistance level near $88,000 - $89,000 and a support level around $80,000 - $81,000. This pattern suggests an upcoming breakout, with bearish continuation being the most probable scenario. Understanding the Rectangle Pattern A rectangle pattern forms when price moves sideways, trapped between two horizontal levels. Traders watch for a breakout in either direction to determine the next trend. In this case, Bitcoin has tested the resistance multiple times but failed to break above, indicating strong selling pressure. Meanwhile, support has been retested several times, which weakens its strength over time. A bearish breakdown is likely because: Buyers appear unable to push past resistance, showing exhaustion. Support has been tested multiple times, which increases the chance of a breakdown. The dotted black trendline is now being tested, and a break below it would further confirm bearish momentum. Trade Setup for a Breakdown A short trade becomes valid only if Bitcoin breaks below the $81,000 - $82,000 support zone with strong momentum. The price must close below this level to confirm the move. How to Enter the Trade? Look for a strong bearish candle close below the $81,000 - $82,000 range. If Bitcoin retests this broken support (now acting as resistance), this can be a secondary short entry point. Once confirmation is seen, open a short position. Stop Loss Placement To protect against false breakouts, a stop loss should be set above the $88,457 resistance zone. If the price moves back into the rectangle and surpasses this level, it means the bearish setup is no longer valid. Profit Target and Trade Expectation The expected take profit target is $73,541. This is calculated using the measured move projection, meaning the height of the rectangle is subtracted from the breakdown point. If Bitcoin reaches this level, the trade will have successfully captured the bearish momentum. Market Psychology Behind This Move The repeated failure to break above resistance ($88,000 - $89,000) signals weak buying interest. Buyers have been stepping in at support, but each retest of the $80,000 - $81,000 zone makes it more vulnerable. Once support finally breaks, several factors will accelerate the move: Long positions will be forced to sell, increasing selling pressure. Breakout traders will enter new short positions, pushing price further down. Liquidity below support will be triggered, causing Bitcoin to fall sharply toward the $73,541 target. Invalidation Scenario (Bullish Case) If Bitcoin breaks above $88,000 - $89,000 and holds, the bearish setup becomes invalid. In that case: The price would shift into a bullish continuation pattern. Traders should avoid shorting and instead look for buying opportunities above resistance. Final Thoughts This is a high-probability bearish setup, but patience is key—wait for confirmation before entering. Risk management is crucial : The stop loss at $88,457 ensures that losses are minimized if the market moves against the trade. If Bitcoin remains inside the rectangle, traders can buy at support and sell at resistance until a breakout occurs.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by GoldMasterTrades
TrumpFall in the Market due to Reciprocal Tariffs.By Ion Jauregui - Analyst ActivTrades The announcement of new reciprocal tariffs by President Donald Trump has triggered an immediate reaction in the markets, causing dizzying drops in various companies since the beginning of the week. The measure has generated an environment of high volatility, with investors seeking refuge in the face of growing instability. Most Affected Companies and Sectors - Technology and Semiconductors • Apple Inc. has seen its shares fall by more than 15% during the week, affected by its dependence on global supply chains. • Amazon and Meta: Both tech giants have seen declines of about 9%, driven by fears over international exposure and rising tariff costs. • Nvidia and other companies in the semiconductor sector: They have posted even larger declines, reflecting this sector's sensitivity to trade uncertainty. - Automotive and Aerospace • Tesla Inc.: The electric vehicle maker has plunged nearly 20%, driven by concerns about rising production costs and competition from local manufacturing. • Boeing Co: Shares have fallen around 18% on concerns about potential disruptions to its supply chain and the impact of new trade barriers. - Industrials and Conglomerates • General Electric: The conglomerate has seen its share price fall by around 16%, as its extensive global operations are threatened by the tightening of trade policies. - Transportation & Logistics • AP Moller Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd: The shipping companies have suffered sharp declines, reflecting the sector's sensitivity to global trade dynamics and tariff measures. - Energy • Chevron and TotalEnergies: Oil prices have fallen by 5% following the unexpected increase in supply by OPEC+, causing significant losses for these oil companies, which are facing an environment of uncertainty and adjustments in the energy markets. - Financial Sector • Asian Banks: Although no specific names are mentioned, several banks in Asia have experienced pronounced volatility, being affected by the environment of uncertainty and concerns about asset quality in the region. • Small cap indices: The Russell 2000, which groups smaller U.S. companies, has fallen 6.6% and accumulated a loss of over 20% since its record high in November, also reflecting the sensitivity of the financial sector in the current environment. S&P500 Analysis Looking at the one hour chart we can see that since April 2nd, a lower bell curve has already started, despite the fact that the Price Control Point (POC) is located in the area where it was trading in the early hours of yesterday's Asian trading day at around 5624 points. This fall related to the news has caused the markets to discount the price by -6.84% and around 2.34% at yesterday's American opening. As soon as the U.S. session began, the conditions were in place again to continue the fall that seemed to have slowed down during the European day, but it was only a bearish consolidation. At this moment, the US premarket seems to have stopped the fall that generated a third bell in the Asian session. Checking the RSI, it has moved from 70% on Wednesday at 18:00 to 23% in today's Asian session. So it could be that today's day will not be as black as yesterday's, but for the moment the bearish mid-range crossover started on Wednesday has only expanded. As for the average volume on both day 2 and 3 the volume has been similar to the openings of other days, so in this sense it is not something that can reveal additional information but only represents that this fall is the result of the “power of fear of tariffs in the market”. A Global Landscape of Uncertainty Trump's announcement has generated a ripple effect in international markets. In the United States, investors are skeptical about the economy's ability to withstand these shocks, which has prompted a search for refuge in assets considered safer, such as Treasury bonds and defensive sectors (consumer staples, healthcare, telecommunications and utilities). Uncertainty is spreading globally: the Nasdaq has fallen by 5.4% and the Nasdaq 100 has lost 17% of its value since its peak in February. In international markets, indices such as the Nikkei 225 and the TOPIX in Japan have registered declines of 3.3% and 4.2% respectively, demonstrating the global scope of the instability. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
ACTIVTRADES:USA500Short
by ActivTrades
The global markets have spoken: The trade war is on. Hello traders This chart layout is not new. See my original Idea from February 23rd. The wrecking ball is not gaining momentum. It reached supersonic speed yesterday and shattered the illusion that all is well on the blue planet. The United States of America has upended the Global order that took 80 years to establish after WWII and financial markets that are still dealing with the Covid-19 pandemic on some levels. And all of this to soothe the ego of the Narcissist in Chief. If you have not grabbed these charts by now, I once again invite you to do so. Maybe it will help with trading decisions, maybe not. As for my own portfolio of long term stocks, I cashed out in February and my FX trading is also on hold. I have no desire to chase my own tail at this point. Best wishes to you all. And, mid terms are not that far away... Wisconsin has already spoken.
TVC:US10Y
by jvrfxalerts
Tariffs are implemented-good news is all out!US President Trump announced a 10% base tariff on all imported goods and higher tariffs on some major trading partners, which caused shocks in global financial markets. Gold prices once rose to a historical high of around 3167, but technical indicators showed that gold was overbought in the short term, and bulls temporarily chose to take profits, resulting in an avalanche of gold bulls. Multiple institutional positions were obviously fleeing, and retail investors' long positions were liquidated, leading to a large correction in gold on Thursday; although gold fell, it was easy to rebound after encountering key split support, so this is an opportunity to participate. Gold closed March with a strong Yang, recovering the retracement in February while further rising, moving away from the trend line resistance after the breakthrough. The trend of this month also maintains the bullish momentum to continue to strengthen, and is expected to stabilize above the trend line resistance after the breakthrough, suggesting that the market will enter a new bull market space in the future, and will hopefully hit the $3,500 mark target; Gold has currently broken through the trend line pressure linked to the rising trend high point in the past 16 months, and the current trend is also moving further away. The main chart trend moving averages maintain a bullish arrangement without signs of weakening, and the attached chart indicators also maintain bullish signal development, suggesting that it is expected to open up further room for growth; However, the bullish momentum is weakening at present, and there is a retracement to collect the inverted top form. Therefore, if it falls below the resistance of the rising trend channel this week or next week, the market is expected to wait for another retracement to the support of the rising trend channel before climbing again. Investment strategy: Buy gold at 3100, target 3130 Sell gold at 3138, target 3100
OANDA:XAUUSD
by HarveyAckerman
A seismic shift in global trade | FX ResearchIt's being viewed as a watershed, historic moment for global trade. The US Liberation Day tariffs have certainly shaken up financial markets. In the immediate aftermath, investors have lost confidence in the US dollar, which has come under pressure across the board—particularly against other major currencies, which are being seen as attractive alternatives. Clearly, the moves have been viewed as more aggressive than expected. Now it comes down to the global response. We’ll find out if the days ahead bring further escalation or if it’s the start of a negotiation process where some of the extremes are pared back. Key standouts on Thursday's calendar come from German, Eurozone, and UK PMI reads; Eurozone producer prices; ECB speech; Canada trade; US trade; US initial jobless claims; US ISM services; and the ECB minutes. Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
by BlackBull_Markets
Trump Goes 'Cynosure' of All Eyes as He Walked Into '1930' RoomThe Striking Parallels Between Trump's 2025 Tariffs and the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 The recent trade policies under President Trump's second administration bear remarkable similarities to the controversial Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, both in approach and potential consequences. These parallels offer important historical lessons about protectionist trade policies. Protectionist Foundations and Scope Both trade initiatives share fundamentally protectionist motivations aimed at shielding American industries from foreign competition. The Smoot-Hawley Act increased import duties by approximately 20% with the initial goal of protecting struggling U.S. farmers from European agricultural imports. Similarly, Trump's 2025 trade agenda explicitly aims at "backing the United States away from integration with the global economy and steering the country toward becoming more self-contained". What began as targeted protections in both eras quickly expanded in scope. While Smoot-Hawley initially focused on agricultural protections, industry lobbyists soon demanded similar protections for their sectors. Trump's tariffs have followed a comparable pattern, beginning with specific sectors but rapidly expanding to affect a broad range of imports, with projected tariffs exceeding $1.4 trillion by April 2025—nearly four times the $380 billion imposed during his first administration. Specific Tariff Examples The parallel implementation approaches are notable: Trump imposed a 25% global tariff on steel and aluminum products effective March 12, 2025 Trump raised tariffs on all Chinese imports to 20% on March 4, 2025 Trump imposed 25% tariffs on most Canadian and Mexican goods Smoot-Hawley increased overall import duties by approximately 20% Smoot-Hawley raised the average import tax on foreign goods to about 40% (following the Fordney-McCumber Act of 1922) Global Retaliation and Economic Consequences Perhaps the most striking similarity is the international backlash. The Smoot-Hawley tariffs triggered retaliatory measures from over 25 countries, dramatically reducing global trade and worsening the Great Depression. Trump's 2025 tariffs have already prompted counter-tariffs from major trading partners: China responded with 15% tariffs on U.S. coal and liquefied natural gas, and 10% on oil and agricultural machines Canada implemented 25% tariffs on approximately CA$30 billion of U.S. goods The European Union announced tariffs on €4.5 billion of U.S. consumer goods and €18 billion of U.S. steel and agricultural products Expert Opposition Both policies faced significant opposition from economic experts. More than 1,000 economists urged President Hoover to veto the Smoot-Hawley Act. Trump's 2025 tariffs? Reaction is coming yet... Potential Economic Impact The historical record suggests caution. The Smoot-Hawley Act is "now widely blamed for worsening the severity of the Great Depression in the U.S. and around the world". Trump's "more audacious intervention" similarly carries "potentially seismic consequences for jobs, prices, diplomatic relations and the global trading system". These striking parallels between trade policies nearly a century apart demonstrate that economic nationalism and retaliatory trade cycles remain persistent challenges in international commerce, with historical lessons that remain relevant today. Stock market Impact Just watch the graph.. -- Best wishes, Your Beloved @PandorraResearch Team 😎
SP:SPX
by PandorraResearch
Tariff U-turn risk now part of the trade Yesterday, President Donald Trump announced his "Liberation Day" tariff strategy, introducing a universal 10% tariff on all imports, with higher rates for specific countries. Despite Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick’s claim that President Trump “won’t back off,” several pressures could still force a reversal before their April 9 implementation. Markets have already reacted negatively, and trading partners are signalling how they might retaliate. French President Emmanuel Macron has urged European companies to suspend investment in the U.S. In Canada, Prime Minister Mark Carney said he is planning to pivot toward more reliable partners like Australia, the U.K., and France. A U-turn by the Trump administration would likely be framed as a strategic win rather than inconsistent policy making—but for traders, volatility may remain a welcome constant from this administration.
by BlackBull_Markets