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Fundamental Analysis

Bullish View Towards $109,000!Hello dear traders! 🍻 Today, I want to share my bullish outlook on Bitcoin. After a precise examination of the chart and the influencing factors, I believe Bitcoin has the potential to reach $109,000 in the short term. 🔷 Technical Analysis: Confirming Order Block Strength From a technical perspective, Bitcoin had a crucial interaction with a designated order block (marked by a red square) on the chart and immediately moved upwards. This direct and strong upward reaction indicates the power and significance of this specific order block. Please keep in mind that this analysis is solely my personal opinion. Any return of the price to this area could be very significant. However, if the price breaks below this red area, my bullish analysis would be invalidated, and we could potentially see a drop to $95,000. 🔶 Fundamental Analysis: A Bright Future Ahead Beyond the technicals, several strong fundamental factors also support a positive outlook for Bitcoin:🔻 1. ETF Inflows: The continuous inflow of liquidity into Bitcoin Spot ETFs paints a bright future for Bitcoin, consistently increasing buying pressure in the market. 2. Institutional and National Adoption: The growing acceptance of Bitcoin by investment funds and even as strategic reserves by countries could truly transform Bitcoin into a global and highly valuable asset. 3. Accumulation by Long-Term Holders & Decreasing Exchange Supply: Data shows that long-term Bitcoin investors are actively accumulating and holding onto their assets. Concurrently, the supply of Bitcoin on exchanges is decreasing. This suggests that investors are not planning to exit their positions for current profits and are anticipating much higher prices. 📍 Conclusion ⚠️ Overall, this was a short-term, personal analysis that I've provided. I hope you find it useful. Important Note: Any break below the red marked area invalidates this analysis. GOODLUCK🍀
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by TheApolloo
XAUUSD - Gold is on the verge of a very important week!Gold is trading above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. I predict the path ahead for gold to be upward and if the resistance level is broken, we can look for buying opportunities. If gold corrects, we can also buy it with a reward at an appropriate risk. Gold prices experienced a mild decline over the past week, with market sentiment shaped less by fundamental shifts and more by mixed messages and scattered commentary around tariffs.Despite the noise, many traders chose to rely on data and technical charts rather than reacting emotionally—data that painted a more subdued picture than the headlines suggested. Rich Checkan, CEO of Asset Strategies International, responded confidently in a recent survey, predicting further gains in gold. “The trajectory for gold is clearly upward. Prices have stabilized around the $3,300 level and appear ready for a new rally, especially if the appellate court’s ruling on tariffs is upheld,” he said. Checkan also pointed to another macroeconomic factor that could support gold: “A new tax bill, described as large and costly, is set to be voted on in the Senate soon. If passed, it will likely widen the budget deficit, which historically leads to increased liquidity and rising inflation—a favorable environment for gold.” On Friday, the PCE inflation report showed easing price pressures, though not enough to put the Federal Reserve at ease. Core PCE (excluding food and energy) rose by 0.1% month-over-month and 2.5% year-over-year in April—matching expectations and slightly down from 2.7% the previous month. The headline PCE also increased 2.1% annually, just below the forecast of 2.2%. The key point: these data reflect the first month in which Trump’s new tariffs were active, yet there’s little evidence so far that they’ve caused inflation to rise. Still, the disinflationary trend remains sluggish and distant from the Fed’s 2% target. In its latest minutes, the Fed warned that inflation may prove more persistent than previously thought. Nick Timiraos of The Wall Street Journal, despite the seemingly positive PCE numbers, issued a cautionary note with four key insights: • The inflationary impact of tariffs is expected to begin showing up from May and be fully reflected in June’s data. This could accelerate goods price increases and disrupt the path of disinflation. • Last year’s monthly PCE figures were particularly weak (May: 0%, June: 0.1%, July: 0.2%). As these drop out of the annual calculation, even if monthly gains remain steady, YoY rates could rise mathematically. • The three-month average for Core PCE from May to October 2024 was only 0.1%. If upcoming monthly figures hit 0.2%, annual disinflation could stall or even reverse. • While the latest report is encouraging, the effects of tariffs and the removal of last year’s weak data could complicate the inflation trajectory. Looking ahead, market attention will focus heavily on a suite of crucial U.S. labor market indicators. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) is due Tuesday, private sector employment data (ADP) on Wednesday, and jobless claims on Thursday. However, the most anticipated release will be Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report for May—widely viewed as a key factor influencing rate expectations. Alongside labor data, markets will also watch other critical economic reports. The ISM Manufacturing PMI on Monday and the ISM Services PMI on Wednesday will offer broader insight into U.S. business activity. In the realm of monetary policy, interest rate decisions from the Bank of Canada (Wednesday) and the European Central Bank (Thursday) are expected to trigger notable movements in the currency and gold markets.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
Monday thoughts and reports Our initial trade of the week was a success no drawback. The currency pair has created a new level and is now in a testing zone that I view as either a possible reversal or continuation of a downtrend validated by the 4 hour and daily timeframes. My points of interaction. Sell: Open and close below 142.579 Buy: Reversal at 142.579 Even though these are the points I'm interested keep in mind it is early in the week and there is a chance for consolidation so beware of overtrading. Monday June 2nd Reports: ISM Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) For May of 2025 it reported at about 48.7% which indicates a continued contraction in the manufacturing sector. Aprils was 49% So we are looking at a slower pace. The current prediction is 49.5%. This is the ninth consecutive month with the index below 50% which is below the neutral threshold of 50%. New Orders decreased to 48.6% from 55.1% Production: Slowed to 50.7% from 52.5% Employment: Fell into contraction at 47.6% down from 50.3% Prices: Accelerated to 62.4% the highest since June 2022, due to increased cost from tariffs Supplier Deliveries: Slowed to 54.5% from 50.9%, indicating longer lead times Inventories: Remained stable at 49.9% Backlog of Orders: Contracted less at 46.8% compared to 44.9% (backlogs are still declining, but not as sharply) The manufacturing sector is experiencing the initial operational impacts of the new administrations tariff policies, leading to increased prices and supply chain disruptions How does this impact USD/JPY? PMI below 50 signals economic weakness it signals contraction in the manufacturing sector. This puts a cloud over the confidence in US economic strength and may lead traders to lower expectations for future fed rate hikes (or even expect cuts) A lower PMI reduces investor confidence in US economy which cloud lead to a weaker dollar This will result in a stronger yen (safe haven currency) against the us dollar Pay attention to: Fed and BOJ monetary policy outlooks, geopolitical risk appetite, interest rate differentials, and upcoming US jobs data report
by OrangeSodaOfficial
Bitcoin Monthly Candle Colour Close since 2011 - looking forward May Closed GREEN, and We are currently on a Very small Green candle for the month open. Last month, in this series of monthly charts posts, I mentioned this.. "On only 2 occasions have we had a GREEN JAN, RED FEB, RED MARCH, GREEN APRIL And Both of them were on the way to ATH. ( Arrows ) On both those occasions we had a GREEN MAY, though the gains were minimal and one was followed by a Green June and the other by a Red June." And we just closed May with a minimal GREEN candle. This is important to understand, This month, we have a 50/50 chance of repeating the Green June candle in this pattern. Outside of this pattern, The previous MAY closes, 7 Green to 6 Red. Of the 7 Green, 5 were followed by a Green June With this, we have a higher % chance of a Green June Of All previous June Closes, we had 7 Green to 6 Red. Of those 7 previous Green June Closes, 3 were followed by GREEN July Of the 6 previous RED Junes, ALL were followed by GREEN July With this in mind, we maybe in a better position if we did close June with a small RED candle, as we did in the 2020 sequence ( right hand Arrow) Should we close June RED, I will then expect a fairly level summer period with PA beginning to start moving again around September / October Bitcoin PA is in an excellent position to move higher now though. It is also in an excellent position to move away from previous cycle patterns and begin creating new one. We do have to remain vigilant as markets are moving everywhere and Macro conditions could change rapidly But the one thing that seems to remain static is that it is a VERY GOOD IDEA to Buy Bitcoin and HOLD IT
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Trump Doubles Down: Steel and Aluminum Tariffs Raised to 50% By Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades Donald Trump has returned to the political and economic spotlight with a clear message from Pennsylvania: double tariffs on steel and aluminum to 50%, aiming to "protect American industry." The announcement comes right after discussions surrounding the $14.9 billion acquisition of U.S. Steel (NYSE: X) by Japan’s Nippon Steel (TYO: 5401)—a deal that has reignited debates over industrial sovereignty and foreign capital in strategic U.S. sectors. The measure has not gone unnoticed. Canada, Europe, and Australia, key U.S. trade partners, have already expressed strong disapproval, warning of possible retaliatory actions. Trade tensions are once again on the rise, and the global manufacturing sector watches with concern as protectionist policies appear to make a comeback in the world’s largest economy. Fundamentals of U.S. Steel (NYSE: X) U.S. Steel has been one of the year’s standout stocks, especially after confirming its sale to Nippon Steel, but its operational numbers also deserve attention: • Market capitalization: USD 8.2 billion • P/E ratio (TTM): 11.8 • Q1 2024 revenue: USD 4.46 billion • Q1 net income: USD 189 million (4.2% margin) • Total debt: USD 3.9 billion • Free cash flow (2023): positive at USD 1 billion The company has strengthened its balance sheet by reducing debt and focusing investments on more efficient technologies (such as its Big River Steel facility). The new tariff support could further enhance margins in the second half of the year. Technical Analysis U.S. Steel (X) closed Friday at $53.82, up approximately +30% year-to-date. • Key resistance levels: $48.83 (2023 highs) and $46.31 (April highs) – both broken • Previous range: $42.00 high, $34.53 low • Immediate support: the last broken resistance at $46.31 • MACD: crossing upward, signaling positive momentum • RSI: 78.03%, nearing overbought territory Since early 2024, the stock has traded within a well-defined range, with brief pullbacks in September that retested during the holiday rally. It has since regained momentum, breaking the $44.44 resistance on the fourth attempt after three failed tests. Earlier in the year, the stock consolidated around the $38.00 area. If protectionist trade policy becomes official, we could see a breakout to new highs. However, if the Nippon deal faces regulatory or political hurdles, short-term volatility could follow. The key volume-weighted point of control is below the current range, with the last strong support area near $31.00. Conclusion: Trump’s statements represent a turning point that could directly benefit U.S. domestic steel producers like U.S. Steel. From a fundamental standpoint, the company shows financial strength and an increasingly efficient operational model. Technically, the stock is at a critical breakout zone, provided political support remains and merger conditions are clarified. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk.
NYSE:XLong
by ActivTrades
Trade conflicts are re-emerging, will gold rise?Information summary: Gold prices rose slightly in early Asian trading on Monday, affected by the long-term uncertainty of tariffs and international geopolitical conflicts, which increased the demand for safe-haven assets. Trump made a statement earlier that China had violated the Sino-US trade negotiation regulations in a big way; then the US Treasury Secretary assured that the United States would never default. This has once again led to tensions in Sino-US trade relations, and investors are also cautious about this news. This news has undoubtedly disrupted the international market and supported the rise in gold prices. Traders need to pay attention to the May ISM manufacturing report to be released by the United States today, which may affect the new trend of gold. Trading analysis: I think the repeated emotions of the United States on tariffs will cause gold prices to rebound after a downward adjustment, and then fall slightly. If gold cannot break through the upward 3350 cycle pressure level strongly and stabilize above this position. Then the price will fall back below this position. Operation strategy: Long at 3340, stop loss at 3330, take profit at 3350. Short at 3350, stop loss at 3365, profit range is around the early support level of 3300-3390. If you want to trade steadily, you can continue to wait and see for some time, because there are too many black swan events in the Asian market today, and the market is full of uncertainty.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Quaid-1
Gold bulls take control as geopolitical risk take center stage!Gold prices advanced during the Asian trading hours, touching a fresh daily high around the $3,317 mark. The move comes amid a combination of factors boosting demand for the yellow metal, notably dovish signals from the Federal Reserve and escalating geopolitical tensions. The US Dollar weakened following Friday's softer-than-expected inflation data, which has strengthened market expectations for a potential Fed rate cut in the second half of 2025. Investors are now positioning for looser monetary policy, which typically enhances the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold. In parallel, geopolitical risks continue to dominate market sentiment. Ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, coupled with renewed US-China trade tensions, have weighed on risk appetite and fueled safe-haven inflows into gold. From a technical standpoint, XAU/USD faces immediate resistance in the $3,355–$3,375 supply zone. A sustained move above this area could open the door to further gains. Conversely, any near-term pullback might find initial support near the $3,300 psychological level, with stronger buying interest expected around the $3,280–$3,278 region.
TVC:GOLD
by Blueberry
Decentralized AI Infrastructure in a trade war between US/ChinaThe AI revolution is real, but it has a critical weakness: GPU scarcity. NVIDIA's H100s are sold out to specific countries around the world, serving as crucial hardware for AI development. Cloud costs are skyrocketing. Access to compute is being gatekept by Big Tech. Meanwhile, China is no longer allowed to purchase these GPUs from the US due to the ongoing trade war and the escalating AI arms race between the two countries. Enter $CRYPTO: IONEUSD — a decentralized GPU network on Solana aiming to become the infrastructure layer for AI, machine learning, and high-performance computing. Just like Helium tokenized wireless infrastructure, IO is tokenizing global compute power. -AI is the fastest-growing sector globally, but compute remains the biggest bottleneck. -Cloud GPU costs are 4–10x higher than decentralized alternatives. -IO.Net positions itself at the intersection of AI, Web3, and tokenized infrastructure. -IO is early in its growth curve, currently holding a market cap of $131 million. I believe that IO.Net could represent a way for China to compete with the US in the AI race, offering a high-demand substitute for expensive and sanctioned chips — helping China stay competitive in AI development. Because IO.Net is decentralized, it cannot be easily shut down. I believe IO.Net is here to stay and has strong potential to grow significantly from its current market cap of $131 million. COINBASE:IOUSD NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:AMD NYSE:TSM BITSTAMP:BTCUSD BINANCE:SOLUSD AMEX:SPY
CRYPTO:IONEUSDLong
by Liljan
FIL 1D – Bear Load Hits 75% as Bulls Face Critical SupportFilecoin trades below both EMA 50 ($2.82) and EMA 100 ($3.03), signaling trend weakness. Heikin Ashi structure confirms continuous downside pressure. Bear Load at 75% — trend intensity tilted short. MACD still below zero line with no crossover in sight. Last defense sits at $2.50 zone — a break could trigger liquidity sweep into $2.30s. Reclaim of $2.82 (EMA50) flips short-term bias. Volume increasing on red — smart money may be prepping the trap or acceleration. Let price speak — stay tactical. #FILUSD #Filecoin #CryptoTA #TrendAnalysis #HeikinAshi #EMAStack #BearLoad
KRAKEN:FILUSDLong
by BroLal
Trade war & NFP in focus this weekSeveral fundamental factors will have a strong impact on financial markets in this first week of June, as uncertainty surrounding the trade war remains high. However, there was some good news last Friday, with US PCE inflation continuing to move towards the Fed's target despite tariffs. This week, two fundamental factors are under close scrutiny: US labor market figures (NFP report) and, of course, as every week, the current phase of trade diplomacy. 1) US PCE inflation is still trending towards 2% and is not rebounding despite the trade war US inflation and employment are the two key variables for considering a resumption of the decline in the federal funds rate, with Trump receiving Powell at the White House at the end of last week. However, the Fed has reiterated its independence and the future direction of its monetary policy will continue to be guided by specific macroeconomic objectives: bringing inflation back to 2% and neutralizing any rise in unemployment. Good news! Last Friday's update on US inflation according to the PCE price index showed that tariffs did not cause inflation to rise in April. On the contrary, the nominal inflation rate is now 2.1% and core inflation is 2.5%. Disinflation therefore seems set to continue in the US despite the tariffs, but this still needs to be confirmed. 2) The market does not expect any rate cuts before September Despite these good PCE inflation figures for April (PCE being the Fed's preferred measure of inflation) and pressure on the Fed from the Trump administration, the market does not expect the federal funds rate to resume its downward trend before the monetary policy decision in September. The debate remains open for the July 30 monetary policy meeting, so the upcoming updates on US employment (NFP report) and inflation will have a decisive impact. 3) The NFP report on Friday, June 6, will be crucial this week! In this first week of June, the US labor market will be the fundamental highlight of the week. All US employment statistics will be updated, with the NFP report on Friday, June 6 being the most important. While it appears that the trade war has not yet pushed inflation up, what about the labor market? Remember that the US unemployment rate is 4.2% of the labor force and that the Fed's alert threshold is 4.4% of the labor force. If it turns out that US companies have had to lay off workers due to the economic uncertainty linked to the trade war, this could accelerate the upcoming schedule for lowering US federal funds rates. Finally, remember that the market is hoping for a phone call between Trump and the Chinese president to finally reach a trade agreement between China and the US. This is a fundamental thread to follow every day on the stock market. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior. 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FRED:UNRATE
by Swissquote
Fundamental Market Analysis for June 2, 2025 EURUSDEUR/USD is recovering its recent losses recorded during the previous session, trading around 1.13700 on Monday during Asian hours. The pair is strengthening amid a weakening US dollar (USD) after the US Court of Appeals ruled on Thursday to allow US President Donald Trump's tariffs to take effect. On Wednesday, a panel of three judges at the International Trade Court in Manhattan said Trump had exceeded his authority by imposing broad import tariffs and ruled the orders issued on April 2 illegal. On Friday, President Trump said at a rally in Pennsylvania that he plans to double import tariffs on steel and aluminum to increase pressure on global steel producers and escalate the trade war. “We are going to impose a 25 percent increase. We are going to raise tariffs on steel imported into the United States from 25 percent to 50 percent, which will further strengthen the steel industry in the United States,” he said, according to Reuters. On Saturday, the European Commission (EC) warned that Europe is ready to respond to President Trump's plan to double tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, which would escalate the trade war between the world's two largest economic powers. Trading recommendation: BUY 1.13600, SL 1.13200, TP 1.14200
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
The international situation is turbulent, how is the trend of goInformation summary: On June 1, Russia and Ukraine continued to clash. Ukrainian drones attacked several Russian military airports, including military bases in eastern Siberia, more than 40 aircraft were damaged, and the loss was about 2 billion US dollars. This was the first time that a military base in Siberia was attacked by a drone. Murmansk Oblast was also attacked by a drone on the same day. However, on the same day, Russia and Ukraine planned to hold a second round of ceasefire negotiations in Istanbul on June 2. The United States said that it was not informed of the Ukrainian attack in advance. Russia and the US Foreign Minister discussed the negotiation plan by phone. The Hungarian Prime Minister revealed that the mediation in 2024 was unsuccessful, and the two sides had obvious differences on the timing of the ceasefire. The current situation is complicated, the prospects for peace talks are unclear, and market risk aversion and economic data (this week's employment report, central bank interest rate decision, etc.) have become new focuses. Gold trend analysis: From the daily chart, the current daily support position is around 3280. This position is the key to the gold band trend. Since the price has broken upward recently, it has stepped back many times and finally closed above the daily support, so the position of the daily support is still the key. Before falling below this support level, the price will most likely maintain a range of 3320-3280 US dollars. Operation strategy: Buy near 3280, stop loss 3270, profit position 3320.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Quaid-1
Tapped In & Tapped Out – Smart Money’s About to Dump AUDUSDAUDUSD has just executed a classic liquidity raid, sweeping a short-term high into a high-probability 1H Order Block (OB) — which also aligns with the continuation move that broke prior structure to the downside. This OB sits directly above equal highs that served as a clear magnet for buy-side liquidity — a textbook inducement for retail breakout traders. Smart money logic suggests these stops were used to fill sell orders. Notably, there’s a Fair Value Gap (FVG) resting just below, which increases the probability of a displacement move to the downside. We now expect price to deliver into the Sellside Liquidity (4H) resting beneath the equal lows, a highly attractive draw on liquidity from an institutional perspective. Key Confluences ✅ 1H OB tapped with precision ✅ Buy-side liquidity swept via equal highs ✅ Clear FVG imbalance below ✅ Sellside liquidity target aligned with equal lows ✅ Weekly bias still leans bearish This is a high-probability setup when following ICT/SMC principles — refined entry, defined target, clean structure. 🔍 Watch for: A clean bearish displacement from current levels Potential lower timeframe confirmations (BOS/CHoCH) for tighter risk entries 📌 Target: 0.64071 🧠 Bias: Bearish ⚠️ As always — DYOR (Do Your Own Research). Institutional concepts work best with context and personal backtesting.
Short
by INSIDER_INTEL
Daily Analysis- XAUUSD (Monday, 2nd June 2024)Asian + London Session Bias: Bullish USD News(Red Folder): -ISM Manufacturing PMI Notes: - Price gapped up during the market open. - Looking for price to fill up the gap and create rejection for continuation to the upside. - Potential BUY if there's confirmation on lower timeframe - Pivot point: 3269 Disclaimer: This analysis is from a personal point of view, always conduct on your own research before making any trading decisions as the analysis do not guarantee complete accuracy.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDLong
by HM_fxtrading
Cautious Bulls Meet Trendline Test: USD/CAD Eyes FOMC CatalystCMCMARKETS:USDCAD OANDA:USDCAD USD/CAD extended its recovery for the third day, trading near 1.3833 on modest USD strength following upbeat U.S. data. However, fiscal worries and expectations of Fed rate cuts in 2025 may limit upside momentum. Traders are cautious ahead of the FOMC Minutes and U.S. PCE/GDP data, while firmer Canadian inflation and oil prices could support the CAD. Technically, the pair remains within a broad downward channel and is now approaching key resistance at 1.3856, aligned with the descending trendline. A clear rejection here could spark a bearish continuation toward 1.3711 support. A breakout above 1.3937 would invalidate the bearish channel and suggest trend reversal. Resistance : 1.3856 , 1.3937 Support : 1.3711 , 1.3809
by ATFX_Global
Vita Inu Upcoming OnslaughtVita Inu is emerging from a four-year accumulation phase, and we have formed a sideways movement similar to Wyckoff accumulation. The coin is listed on top exchanges and has recently become available on Revolut, Europe’s largest digital bank. There was recent news that Revolut might start operating in the US. All these events will lead to high demand for the coin in the future and, consequently, exponential price growth, especially in the upcoming altseason. This coin not only has the potential to reach the market cap of Shiba Inu, Doge, or Pepe but also to surpass them. If you missed your chance for big gains, this is an excellent opportunity to make money, as the coin’s market cap currently does not exceed $20 million. I forgot to mention that the coin has a fantastic multilingual community, a strong development team, and Wintermute is acting as the market maker for the coin. Still unsure which coin to add to your bag for the altseason? The answer is obvious.
Long
by luciussolar
1